Tag Archives: market lab report

MLR – PMP 3/13/15

​​Major averages rose yesterday on mixed volume with the S&P 500 and DJIA regaining their respective 50-day moving averages on slightly higher volume. One would have expected more volume given the contextually sizeable percentage gains in the majors, once again showing the market remains in a risk-off mode. If the S&P 500 can hold above the 50-day moving average, then it may stand a chance of putting in a low here, but for now that remains an open question. Mortgage service company Ellie Mae (ELLI) had a pocket pivot. Earnings and sales accelerating, pretax margin 25.3%, group rank 15. ELLI gapped up on its prior earnings report.

MLR – PMP 3/12/15

Major averages tiptoed lower on lower volume after Tuesday’s big selloff. The market was unable to manage a bounce though the small and mid cap indices were up on the day. With the number of smaller stocks outnumbering the larger ones, breadth was actually positive on both the NASDAQ Composite and NYSE. Futures are up as of this writing. Despite the recent weak market action over the last few days, two names showed constructive patterns leading to the following pocket pivots: Chinese online discount retailer Vipshops (VIPS) had a pocket pivot. It gapped up after its most recent earnings report. Earnings and sales are skyrocketing, ROE 61.3%, group rank 70. Pharmaceutical ingredient maker Cambrex Corp. (CBM) had a pocket pivot. It gapped up after its most recent earnings report. Earnings are accelerating, group rank 18. Since the general market has displayed weakness over the last few days, any buying should be done with caution and in measured fashion. Members should keep in mind that pocket pivots are technical facts, and only become actionable under the right circumstances and market context. However, as we’ve pointed out previously, stocks issuing pocket pivots during a market pullback or correction are showing contrarian strength and therefore should be watched carefully in the event the market stabilizes and resumes any rally phase.

MLR – PMP 3/11/15

​Major averages tanked yesterday on higher volume, with the S&P 500 and DJIA definitively slicing through their respective 50dma’s. Distribution days continue to pile up with 5 of the last 8 days adding at least one distribution day onto a major index. While the put-call ratio spiked, this does not mean the market has found its low. The market often will fall for another few days or more before finding its low after the put-call spikes. Thus trying to use this secondary indicator as an entry point to buy is hazardous at best. Volatility spikes during such periods adding to the overall noise in the market, and added noise means added risk. It is far more reliable to examine the health of leading stocks as a good representation of the market’s internals, thus the screens we run regularly help keep all of us on the right side of the markets when it comes to going long or short individual stocks. As for market timing, the market tends to fall off mini cliffs with very little warning as it has done five times since December. Major averages tend to quickly fall around 4-5% during such periods which last from just a few to several days before sharply bouncing, thus the timing environment remains tricky. With the NASDAQ Composite off 2%. the S&P 500 off 3%, and heightened levels of noise, MDM will most likely move to the sidelines for now. Futures are trading up as of this writing. Short-sale set-ups Workday (WDAY) and Splunk (SPLK) have continued moving lower with the indexes, although their initial downtrends began BEFORE the indexes actually topped. SPLK closed yesterday right at its 50-day moving average, which could set up a technical bounce, and we would view the 20-day moving average at 63.64 as an area of potential upside resistance on any bounce. WDAY has broken 5% below its 50-day moving average, bringing into play a possible downside target at the 76.35 mid-January low while the 50-day moving average at 84.53 can be viewed as an area of potential upside resistance. Weak rallies into the 50-day line could be viewed as potentially shortable. How the short side of the market develops from here depends on how things unfold following this first break off the peak, and for now that remains a fluid situation.