MLR – PMP 3/26/15
Major averages got hit hard on higher volume. The go-nowhere market action (straight up, straight down) makes for treacherous market timing as the up-down-up-down periods are very short lived as has been the case for much of the market since December 2014. The S&P 500 and DJIA both closed under their respective 50dmas. Market action since December speaks to the frailty of the Fed attempting to push markets higher by way of quantitative easing as the markets are clearly resisting any sort of normal uptrend. A successful follow through day should result in an uptrending market that lasts at least five weeks, according to one definition. We have not had such action since December, but instead a whipsaw environment where trends lack any sort of persistence. That said, our stock trading strategies of taking profits and keeping stops tight as we have advised members for more than a year continues to work as long as one remains nimble and disciplined. As for the Fed, it has said it would be “data dependent”, so market participants are tracking economic reports with a closer eye as to when the Fed may begin raising rates. Orders for durable U.S. goods fell in February, suggesting businesses remain reluctant to invest more aggressively and suggest that the first-quarter GDP will be weak. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, warned that global uncertainty is the biggest risk to the U.S. economy, suggesting interest rates stay low until 2016. Major world economies including China, Japan, Europe, and the UK all are struggling to pull themselves out of this economic quagmire. This implies the period of QE will be prolonged. Nevertheless, markets have been resisting the push higher. Futures are currently trading lower by about 1%.