Tag Archives: management

Ivy Portfolio October Update

The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet track the 10-month moving average signals for two portfolios listed in Mebane Faber’s book The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets . Faber discusses 5, 10, and 20 security portfolios that have trading signals based on long-term moving averages. The Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet tracks both the 5 and 10 ETF Portfolios listed in Faber’s book. When a security is trading below its 10-month simple moving average, the position is listed as “Cash.” When the security is trading above its 10-month simple moving average the positions is listed as “Invested”. The spreadsheet’s signals update once daily (typically in the late evening) using dividend/split adjusted closing price from Yahoo Finance. The 10-month simple moving average is based on the most recent 10 months including the current month’s most recent daily closing price. Even though the signals update daily, it is not an endorsement to check signals daily or trade based on daily updates. It simply gives the spreadsheet more versatility for users to check at his or her leisure. The page also displays the percentage each ETF within the Ivy 10 and Ivy 5 Portfolio is above or below the current 10-month simple moving average, using both adjusted and unadjusted data. If an ETF has paid a dividend or split within the past 10 months, then when comparing the adjusted/unadjusted data you will see differences in the percent an ETF is above/below the 10-month SMA. This could also potentially impact whether an ETF is above or below its 10-month SMA. Regardless of whether you prefer the adjusted or unadjusted data, it is important to remain consistent in your approach. My preference is to use adjusted data when evaluating signals. The current signals based on September 30th’s adjusted closing prices are below. This month Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) is above its moving average and the balance of the ETFs, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (NYSEARCA: VEU ), Vanguard Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: VB ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ), SPDR DJ International Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: RWX ), Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ), PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (NYSEARCA: DBC ), S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSEARCA: GSG ) Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) and iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (NYSEARCA: TIP ), are below their 10-month moving average. The spreadsheet also provides quarterly, half year, and yearly return data courtesy of Finviz. The return data is useful for those interested in overlaying a momentum strategy with the 10-month SMA strategy: (click to enlarge) I also provide a “Commission-Free” Ivy Portfolio spreadsheet as an added bonus. This document tracks the 10-month moving averages for four different portfolios designed for TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and Vanguard commission-free ETF offers. Not all ETFs in each portfolio are commission free, as each broker limits the selection of commission-free ETFs and viable ETFs may not exist in each asset class. Other restrictions and limitations may apply depending on each broker. Below are the 10-month moving average signals (using adjusted price data) for the commission-free portfolios: (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Disclosures: None.

Top ETF Stories Of September

The third quarter of 2015 was utterly downbeat for the broader U.S. market as well as the global indices with the China-led rout surfacing in August and spilling over into September. Not only global growth worries but also high speculation of a Fed lift-off has made the month of September the most-watched one so far this year. In any case, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac , September ended in red 55% of the times while S&P Dow Jones Indices indicated an average fall of 1.03% return over the last 87 years in September. As a result, after a worldwide investing massacre in August, the investing cohort must be keen to know the top financial stories of September and check their impact on the ETF world. Still a Dovish Fed Turning loads of hearsays off, the Fed remained supportive in its most talked-about September meeting. A dreaded uproar in the global investing backdrop in August led by the Chinese market crash, swooning commodities and their shockwaves on other emerging economies held the Fed back from switching on the lift-off button this September. Muted inflation and a still-strong greenback were also other forces to inhibit the Fed from policy tightening. As the Fed stayed put, some big moves in various markets and asset classes were prompted. Though the Fed has kept the option for a 2015 hike still alive, a small section of policymakers and traders have started to bet that the rates may not be hiked before 2016. Whatever the case, financial ETFs like SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA: KRE ) and iShares Broker Dealer ETF (NYSEARCA: IAI ) and U.S. dollar ETF PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA: UUP ) were the foremost losers post Fed meeting. UUP shed 0.04%, KRE lost 1.1% and IAI was off 6.4% in the month. However, there were plenty of gainers too. Long-term Treasury bond ETFs like Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV ), high-yield m-REIT ETFs like iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage Plus Capped Index Fund (NYSEARCA: REM ) and gold-related ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD ) and Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX ) added gains post meeting. Overall, EDV was up over 1.5% in the month but other products could not hold on to gains. REM was off 4.2% while GLD and GDX shed 0.45% and 5.6% in the month (as of September 28, 2015). Biotech Meltdown If China made August infamous, biotech did the same for September. Pricing issues in the biotech space has long been a concern but came into the limelight in September following a tweet by the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Her tweet raised concerns on over pricing on life-saving drugs at the end of the month. Questions over biotech pricing came on the heels of a 5,455% price hike (in about two months) of a drug called Daraprim, used to treat malaria and toxoplasmosis. This gigantic leap in pricing action was taken by a privately held biotech company Turing Pharmaceuticals. Not only Turing Pharmaceuticals, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. (NYSE: VRX ) is also likely to be summoned by Democrats on the House oversight committee for hiking 525% and 212% prices for two heart drugs. The talks pulled VRX shares down by 16.5% on September 28 and hit all biotech ETFs. In fact, growing pains for biotech investing led the biggest related ETF iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (NASDAQ: IBB ) to incur the largest weekly loss in seven years. IBB was down over 15% in the last one month while ETFs like SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA: XBI ), Medical Breakthroughs ETF (NYSEARCA: SBIO ) and BioShares Biotechnology Clinical Trials Fund (NASDAQ: BBC ) were off 15.4%, 16.5% and 15%, respectively. Volkswagen Scandal This dealt quite a blow to the entire auto industry. The iconic German carmaker Volkswagen AG ( OTCQX:VLKAY ) has been accused of tricking on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) test. Per EPA, Volkswagen had set up a software algorithm which allowed it to mislead U.S. emissions tests and the carmaker has admitted the charge. This immediately weighed on the key auto industry of Germany as other automakers have also been hit. Germany ETFs like iShares MSCI Germany ETF (NYSEARCA: EWG ), Recon Capital DAX Germany ETF (NASDAQ: DAX ), Germany AlphaDEX Fund (NASDAQ: FGM ) and db X-trackers MSCI Germany Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEARCA: DBGR ) were hit hard on this car scandal and registered a steep retreat in the month. The funds were off over 6.6%, 6.5%, 6.4% and 5.15 respectively in September. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

2 Metal ETFs To Buy For Q4

Metal ETFs were clearly out of investors’ favor for much of 2014 and have been unloved so far this year. The combination of a stronger greenback, a slumping China, the oil price rout and the adverse demand-supply imbalance have put a hold over several industrial metals in recent times. Since the Chinese economy accounts for about half of the global consumption of the industrial commodities, a steep slowdown in the country’s economy and a protracted downturn in its manufacturing sector mean reduced demand for commodities. While the commodity market is yet to show any definite sign of recovery, a trend reversal seems to be playing on the horizon. A diminishing supply glut, multi-year low metal prices and production cuts in the face of loss-making might open up opportunities for some metal ETFs. Also, investors are increasingly wagering on hopes of a solid monetary stimulus in China which in turn will shore up the manufacturing sector and fuel metal prices and the related ETFs. Given this, investors may want to consider cycling into the industrial metal space in order to obtain a momentum play and profit out of a beaten-down space. How to Pick Right ETFs? First, fundamentals need to be favorable, then investors can look at our Zacks ETF Rank. This system looks to find the best ETFs in a given market segment based on a number fundamental and technical factors about the ETF and the Zacks forecast for the underlying industry or asset class. Following this technique we at Zacks revised our ETF ranks recently and found out that two metal ETFs have been upgraded from #3 (Hold) #2 (Buy). Below we highlight these two metal ETFs: Aluminum Aluminum consumption is likely to surge helped by the automotive and packaging industries. The boom in the airline industry is also another catalyst in driving the price higher. Also, policy easing in China should play a major role as the economy accounts for over 40% of global aluminum consumption. iPath Pure Beta Aluminum ETN (NYSEARCA: FOIL ) The product focuses on the Barclays Capital Aluminum Pure Beta TR Index. The index consists of a single futures contract but has a unique roll structure which selects contracts using the Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. This strategy looks to limit the impact of contango while at the same time provides the collateralized return from U.S. T-Bills. The product has amassed about $1.6 million in assets and trades in paltry volumes of 500 shares a day. The product charges 75 bps in fees. FOIL was up over 4.5% in the last one month (as of September 25, 2015). Dow Jones-UBS Aluminum Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: JJU ) This ETN delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on aluminum and currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity. The product trades in a paltry volume of about 1,000 shares daily on average and has amassed $2.2 million in AUM. Expense ratio comes in at 0.75%. The product gained over 0.1% in the last one month. Nickel A fear of supply shortage could push up nickel price in Q4. Brazil’s giant producer expects the price to rebound in the last quarter brining about the ‘strongest performance’ since the start of 2015. GMK Norilsk Nickel PJSC, the world’s second-largest producer of nickel and Russia’s biggest mining company, ticked up its metal deficit forecast on a further cut in production. A significant reduction in LME inventory can be considered as a cue for a stable nickel market going forward. Plus, Indonesia’s decision to carry on the ban on exporting unprocessed ores would support the nickel price recovery. Notably, Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of nickel, and accounts for 18-20% of global supply. iPath Pure Beta Nickel ETN (NYSEARCA: NINI ) This note seeks to match the performance of the Barclays Capital Nickel Pure Beta Total Return Index. Unlike many commodity indexes, this product can roll into one of a number of futures contracts with varying expiration dates, as selected, using the Barclays Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. The ETN manages just $0.8 million in its asset base and sees light volume of about 1,500 shares a day, suggesting additional cost beyond the annual fee of 75 bps per year. The note was down 2.4% in the last one month (as of September 25, 2015). iPath Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return (NYSEARCA: JJN ) This ETN tracks the Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return. The index delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on nickel and currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity. The product is a bit expensive as it charges 75 bps in fees per year. It trades in a paltry volume of nearly 5,000 shares daily on average that increases the trading cost in the form of a wide bid/ask spread. The fund is also unpopular and has attracted just $6.3 million in AUM. JJN lost 0.8% in the last one month. Original Post