Tag Archives: management

The 4 ETFs That Will Replace My Portfolio’s Core

Summary All of the ETFs mentioned have annual expenses under 0.15%. The ETFs mentioned will allow broad based diversification for my portfolio’s core. These offerings are from Vanguard, but several other low cost fund families exist. Nearly two years ago I wrote an article entitled My Retirement Portfolio Could Be Replaced With These 5 ETFs . At the time, the article was written basically to as an alternative concept to my portfolio (at that time) of individual stocks. We all tend to evolve as investors over time. Each of us are on our own journey, whether we’re talking about investing or life in general. I know the focus of my life has evolved over the past few years. If you are interested in a summary my family’s journey thus far, read about it HERE . Over the past 2 years I have come to two important realizations, which encourage me to eventually rotate mostly out of individual stocks and to the portfolio outlined below. First and most importantly, there simply aren’t that many companies around the world that deserve my family’s capital. To be clear, I don’t mean there aren’t some reasonable values in the global equity markets. I am talking about companies that are so well run, and have amazingly sustainable competitive advantages, that I would commit to owning these companies for the next 20 or 30 years. Perhaps you think the idea of holding an investment for decades is a simplistic and illogical consideration, but I contend that it’s exactly my intention when I invest in an individual company on the “long-term side” of our bifurcated portfolio . For that reason, in the future I will cap individual stock investments at 25% or 30% of our portfolio’s value. It will be limited to companies that can compound my capital, and unlock value, for decades and I think those are few and far between. The second consideration in proposing the portfolio outlined below, is my personal time commitment . Currently I have a day job and enjoy researching our individual stock investments, but we are moving toward semi retirement. I anticipate additional flexibility and travel in semi retirement, but I can’t allow the time commitments of monitoring a portfolio of individual stock investments to get in the way our flexibility/freedom. That sounds too much like work. With those two considerations in mind, let’s take a look at the ETF offerings below. (Note: the funds discussed are all Vanguard offerings, but there are also other low cost fund families to consider like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) First up is Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF, my proxy for exposure to domestic US companies. In the previous article I mentioned Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: VOO ). Several readers commented that Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF might be a better alternative, because it includes both small and mid capitalization companies. After some thought, I agree. While this ETF is capitalization weighted, which in this case means it’s heavily skewed toward the large cap companies of the S&P 500, it also gives me some exposure to the small and mid capitalization companies. I like the concept of this additional exposure, because the small and mid capitalization companies tend to be much more isolated from international troubles and get nearly all of their business within the United States. I like to think of this ETF as the S&P 500, with a little extra kick. Given so much diversification, it’s hard to beat the annual expense ratio of 0.05%. Below is a snap shot of Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF, from Vanguard’s website. The companies in the portfolio represent a wide variety of industries. (click to enlarge) Vanguard FTSE All World ex US ETF (NYSEARCA: VEU ) The next ETF would be Vanguard’s FTSE All World ex US ETF. This fund includes stock in more than 2500 different companies around the world. The holdings are skewed to the largest capitalization companies, because of the fund’s capitalization weighting. Also as a result of the fund’s weighting, you probably recognize all of the names in the top 10 portfolio holdings. (Think Nestle ( OTCPK:NSRGY ), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A ), Toyota (NYSE: TM ), and Unilever (NYSE: UL )). In the graphic below, courtesy of Vanguard’s website, you can see that this truly is a global fund. This is the type of diversification I expect from a capitalization weighted all world fund. Additionally, if you don’t feel comfortable having a large weighting of emerging market companies in your portfolio you may be able to hit your desired asset allocation within the 17.5% of this fund that represents companies located in emerging market economies. The annual expense ratio of this fund is only 0.14%, which is paltry considering the diversification (and rebalancing efforts) achieved by owning this fund. (click to enlarge) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) If you are optimistic about the future of emerging market economies, you may want to add additional exposure to your portfolio by including something like Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets ETF. I own this fund, but be warned that everyone has a different definition of what an “emerging market” economy is. Some people think of frontier economies, like those found in Africa and the Middle East. Others think of countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China. I’m not here to tell you what the right answer is, but remember that some emerging market economies have been “emerging” for decades. Remember to dig into your fund’s portfolio allocation, to be sure you are comfortable with what you are buying. (click to enlarge) See the table below for a perfect case in point. This is the geographic distribution of Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Market ETF. A full 28.2% of the portfolio is comprised of businesses based in China, and 55.3 percent of the portfolio’s companies are based in China, Taiwan, or India. I would prefer if the percentage of companies from those three countries was reduced somewhat, but overall I feel the diversification achieved by this fund fits my family’s needs pretty well. For my annual expense ratio of 0.15%, I gain exposure to over 2500 different global companies. As a result of the difficulty gathering quality corporate information in many of these emerging economies, I have always used an ETF (and this one specifically) to purchase my desired allocation of emerging market companies. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) There is a conversation raging right now about whether or not bond investors are being adequately compensated for the risks present in the bond market. That’s a conversation for another day, although I will note that because I am still in my 30s and interest rates are so painfully low, I have not had any meaningful bond exposure in my portfolio for several years. Clearly this is an individual decision, and every investor is different. If however you would like exposure to more than 7700 bonds, for an annual expense ratio of 0.07%, Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF may be for you. As you can see in the three tables below, courtesy of Vanguard’s website, the vast majority of holdings are highly rated bonds. The bonds held in the portfolio are also from a variety of issuers and of varying duration. For simple and straight forward bond market exposure, Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF is worth a look. Specialty (Sector, County, and Asset) ETFs It’s amusing sometimes to look at all the different specialty ETFs and mutual funds currently being offered. While the typical investor has no need to invest in many of these funds, they are available if the investor so decides. Two specialty funds that come up in my conversations with readers are listed below, but rest assured that your own imagination is the only limit of fund offerings. If you want to invest in a socially responsible fund that only invests in women owned businesses in the former Soviet Union states, I’m sure there is a fund out there for you. I’m exaggerating to prove a point, but I assure you that there are literally thousands of specialty funds available to you, if you take the time to look for them. Remember that just because these funds exist, doesn’t mean they are worthy of your hard earned capital. Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) In the current low interest rate environment, investors have been searching for yield anywhere they can get it. Many investors have turned to corporate dividends and distributions from REITs (real estate investment trusts) or MLPs (master limited partnerships). If you are interested in owning a basket of REITs, Vanguard’s REIT ETF may be for you. For a 0.12% annual expense ratio, you gain exposure to 140+ different REITs. In the graphic below (courtesy of Vanguard’s website) you can see the sector diversification offered within the fund, as well as the top ten fund holdings. (click to enlarge) Vanguard Healthcare ETF (NYSEARCA: VHT ) Many investors are keen to take advantage of long term trends, such as aging demographics, and global healthcare issues. If you are looking for this type of exposure, Vanguard’s Healthcare ETF is worth a look. For a low 0.12% annual expense ratio, you can gain exposure to over 330 companies within the healthcare industry. The distribution of those companies is shown in the graphic (courtesy of Vanguard’s website) below, as are the funds top portfolio holdings. (click to enlarge) In a future article I will write about my asset allocation goals for my portfolio, but I hope this article gave you an idea of several very sold ETFs offered within the Vanguard family of funds. (Other low cost fund families you may want to look at include Fidelity and T. Rowe Price). Given the impressive returns posted by equity markets around the world, I have been hesitant to shift all of our holdings over to passive index ETFs just yet. The reality is that I currently enjoy researching and picking individual stocks. Eventually I will not have the time, or desire, to spend so much time on our investments. At that time, having a core portfolio position in the group of ETFs mentioned here will be my best bet. I took an early step in that direction this summer, following China’s massive sell off, when began accumulating a large position in Vanguard’s Emerging Markets ETF. I still have a long way to go before I reach my desired asset allocations, but I am optimistic that better investment opportunities (and lower prices) will present themselves in the future. Do you hold index funds or ETFs in your portfolio? Why or why not? Disclosure: The only ETF mentioned that I currently own is VWO. I do own individual stocks included in some of the other ETFs. Please consult your investment professional to create an asset allocation mix that meets your specific needs. Mine is a fairly unusual case given my young age and mix of investment holdings. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation for anyone to buy, sell, or hold any securities. I am not a financial professional. The information above is available at Vanguard.com.

Retail ETFs Slump: What’s Up For The Holiday Season?

The retail sector saw a bloodbath on Friday following a slew of weak reports from retailers ranging from department to dollar stores. Additionally, the soft October retail sales data added to the woes. With Thanksgiving less than two weeks away and Christmas coming up in six weeks, the growth prospects for the upcoming holiday season suddenly look dull. Retail Sales Data After a flat September, retail sales barely rose 0.1% in October, falling short of the market expectation of 0.3% growth. The lackluster growth can be blamed on a surprise decline of 0.5% in auto sales, implying that cheap gasoline failed to spur consumer spending as expected. Notably, consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of demand in the U.S. economy. Fast Recap of Early Q3 Earnings Total earnings from 60% of the sector’s total market capitalization reported so far are up 7.8% on revenue growth of 11.1%, with 59.1% surpassing earnings estimates and 45.5% beating on the top line. The sector kicked-off the earnings season on a solid note with growth rates and beat ratios coming in better than the pre-season expectations and other sector performances. But the trend reversed last week after departmental stores like Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN ) and Macy’s (NYSE: M ) spread an air of pessimism into the broad sector and disappointed investors. Even better-than-expected results from J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ) and Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS ) were unable to sweep away the negative sentiments. Nordstrom was the major dampener as the stock plummeted 15% on Friday after the company missed on both earnings and revenues by 14 cents and $43 million, respectively. The retailer lowered its sales growth guidance to 7.5-8% from 8.5-9.5% and the adjusted earnings per share guidance to $3.40-$3.50 from $3.70-$3.80 for the full year. The lackluster results came just a day after shares of Macy’s nosedived 14% on November 11 on the back of weak sales and a downbeat guidance. The second-largest department store retailer posted the third consecutive quarterly decline in sales and missed our estimates by $228 million, though it beat our earnings estimate by a couple of cents. The company now expects sales to decline 2.7-3.1% compared with the previous expectation of a 1% decline and slashed its earnings per share guidance to $4.20-$4.30 from $4.70-$4.80. However, J.C. Penney reported stronger results on November 13 with earnings and revenues coming ahead of our expectations. The company reported loss of 47 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 58 cents while revenues of $2.897 billion were slightly ahead of our estimate of $2.869. On the other hand, Kohl’s also topped our estimates by 6 cents on earnings and $26 million on revenues on November 12. Despite the robust earnings announcement, both stocks were victims of the broad retail sector rout on Friday. Shares of JCP tumbled 15.4% while Kohl’s declined 6.4%, erasing all its gains made on November 12. Other retailers were also dragged down with their stock prices going deep into red at the close on the day. Some of these include video-game retailer GameStop (NYSE: GME ), watchmaker Fossil Group (NASDAQ: FOSL ), and apparel retailer Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE ) that shed 16.5%, 36.5% and 40%, respectively, on a single day. Big-box retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT ), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY ), Home Depot (NYSE: HD ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) were also hit by the sector slump. ETFs in Focus Given this, the retail ETF world also saw rough trading on the day with all the three funds, namely SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT ), Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH ) and PowerShares Retail Fund (NYSEARCA: PMR ) losing 3.8%, 2.9% and 3%, respectively. XRT This product tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, holding 104 securities in its basket. It is widely spread across each component as none of these holds more than 1.31% of total assets. Small cap stocks dominate about two-thirds of the portfolio while the rest have been split between the other two market cap levels. In terms of sector holdings, apparel retail takes the top spot with nearly one-fourth share while specialty stores, automotive retail and Internet retail also have a double-digit allocation each. XRT is the most popular and actively traded ETF in the retail space with AUM of about $688 million and average daily volume of more than 3.9 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and is down 11% in the year-to-date time frame. RTH This fund tracks the Market Vectors US Listed Retail 25 Index and holds about 26 stocks in its basket. It is a large cap centric fund and is heavily concentrated on the top firm Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN ) with 14.6% share, closely followed by Home Depot. Sector wise, specialty retail occupies the top position with 29% share, followed by a double-digit allocation each to Internet & catalogue retail, hypermarkets, drug stores, departmental stores, and health care services. The fund has amassed $191.5 million in its asset base while average daily volume is moderate at nearly 72,000 shares. Expense ratio came in at 0.35%. The product has added 3% so far this year. PMR This retail fund provides diversified exposure across various market caps with 42% each in small and large caps and the rest in mid caps. This is easily done by tracking the Dynamic Retail Intellidex Index. The fund has accumulated just $22.4 million in its asset base while trades in a light volume of about 6,000 shares a day. The ETF charges 63 bps in fees per year. In total, the product holds 30 securities with none accounting for more than 5.72% of assets. In terms of industrial exposure, specialty retail takes the top spot at 43%, while food retail (22%) and drug stores (12%) round off the top three positions. PMR has shed 6.3% in the year-to-date time frame. What Awaits the Holiday Season? Despite the current slide, the outlook for the sector looks quite promising. This is because consumer confidence is on a rise, offering some hope for retailers ahead of the crucial holiday season. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 93.1 in early November from 90 in October, indicating that economic recovery is on track despite the twin attacks of a strong dollar and weak global demand that have been hurting the industrial sector, especially manufacturing. Additionally, the National Retail Federation (NRF) expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant) to grow at a solid pace of 3.7%. Though this marks a deceleration from last year’s growth rate of 4.1%, it is well above the 10-year average of 2.5%. A recent survey by Gallup showed that Americans intend to spend an average $812 on gifts this holiday season, up from $781 last year and the highest expected spending since 2007. The retail sector bodes solid Industry rank from Zacks perspective, which divides the sector into 19 industries at the expanded level. Out of these, 64% of the industries have a solid Zacks Industry Rank in the top 42%, reflecting strong growth prospects in the weeks ahead. Moreover, the three products detailed above have a Medium risk outlook with a top Zacks ETF Rank of 1 or ‘Strong Buy’ rating for XRT and RTH, and Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating for PMR. As a result, risk tolerant investors may want to consider the recent slump a buying opportunity, should they have the patience for extreme volatility. Original Post

Stocks Bleed With Paris, Safe Havens Surge: ETFs In Watch

Ominous clouds over the Eurozone are refusing to pass. At least back-to-back hits last week corroborate this fact. If weaker than expected GDP data for the bloc in Q3 – merely 0.3% – was not enough to dampen investors’ mood, a gruesome terror attack in Paris, slaughtered whatever little bit of risk-on trade investing sentiment over the region was left. In fact, not only the Eurozone, the entire risk-pro global investing backdrop took a beating after the terrorist group ISIS took responsibility for the attack in the French capital on Friday. Squads of Islamic State-backed gunmen assassinated about 129 people in a chain attack at various locations and left hundreds severely injured. This was Europe’s worst terror assault in over a decade, as per Bloomberg . In vengeance, France bombed the Syrian city of Raqqa on Sunday night, which was the most hostile anti-terrorism strike by the former against this Islamic group. With the global superpowers including France now looking confident of bolstering defense against ISIS, geo-political issues may crop up in the coming days. Needless to say, all global risky assets went into a tailspin following this horrible incident. Though the French economy fared better than other biggies in the bloc in Q3, having returned to subtle growth on higher domestic demand , investors did not have time to celebrate the recovery as terrorism took the upper hand over an improving economy. Market Impact Investors appeared to take this bloodbath too seriously and rushed to panic selling in apprehension of a surge in geo-political threats. The sudden elevation of risk aversion in the market brightened the appeal for safe haven assets. Volatility ETFs, which track the implied volatility of the market, also surged thanks to the massacre in the stock market and concerns over a further downturn. This specifically caused the uptrend in a few segments of the financial world that are seeing dire trending of late, but hold promises now. Below, we highlight a few of the biggest gainers from the latest sell-off in the global stock market. Also, these ETFs may continue to thrive should tensions persist in the global economy in the near term. Gainers Gold Gold is often viewed as a hedge against market risk. The precious metal went through a brutal stretch in the last one-month period thanks to the rising greenback and reduced demand from the major consuming nations like China. The metal has seen some strength thanks to this market turmoil. In fact, the solid Fed rate hike bet for December couldn’t hold back this safe haven metal post Paris attack. The ETF tracking gold bullion SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD ) added over 0.5% after hours on November 13 and is expected to tack on gains in the short term. GLD was down 9% in the last one month. Long-Term U.S. Treasury Though U.S. treasuries were out of favor a few days back due to worries over Fed tightening, heightened global uncertainty brought this safe asset into the limelight. Along with the terror attack, global growth worries and severely low oil price, which put a lid on global inflation should help treasury valuation going forward. Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year notes slipped to 2.28% on November 13 from 2.32% recorded the day earlier. Long-term U.S. bond ETF the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) was up 0.6% on November 13 and added over 0.3% after hours. For the month, the fund is down about 3.9%. Greenback The U.S. dollar or greenback is yet another product, which acts favorably when a flight to safety commands the market. Plus, a ripe prospect of a sooner than expected Fed lift-off also favors this asset class. As a result, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA: UUP ) added about 0.4% on November 13, advanced about 0.6% after hours, and soared about 5.4% in the last one month. Yen The Japanese currency, yen, is often considered a classic safe haven asset. Though a somber GDP data for Japan – which indicates that Asia’s second-largest economy is into a recession in Q3 – had the chance of wrecking havoc on the yen, the currency moved higher on a safe-haven appeal. Thus, the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSEARCA: FXY ) might see a surge ahead. Volatility When sentiments among investors are so shaky, the volatility index is sure to gain. Obeying this law, the CBOE volatility index or “fear gauge” reached its highest tip since October 2. The ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (NYSEARCA: VIXY ) – the ETF tracking the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index – returned over 6.8% on November 13 and added more than 2.8% after hours. However, investors should note that volatility investments are not meant for long-term traders. Losers Along with several research houses like Goldman , we believe that this market turmoil is here to stay. Yet, we would like to highlight the losers in the wake of the Paris attack. While most of the global equities lost after the massacre, with the U.S. equity gauge the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) losing 1.12% on November 13 and shedding over 0.8% after hours, Europe-based products are likely to be the worst hit. France As expected, France equities and the related ETFs were the worst hit. The pure-play France ETF the iShares MSCI France (NYSEARCA: EWQ ) lost 1.1% on November 13 and plunged over 4% after hours. Euro First a soft GDP report and then the attack weighed on the common currency Euro and its related ETFs. The euro fell to a six-month low versus the greenback. The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSEARCA: FXE ) lost over 0.5% on November 13. Broader Europe Since the impact of this bloodshed would be far-reaching, broader Europe ETFs would also be vulnerable in the coming few days. Already, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK ) shed over 0.8% on November 13 and went on to lose over 1.3% after market. Bottom Line Though we do not expect this bearish move to continue especially in the U.S., which has a strong trend underneath, the upheaval in the stock market may persist for a week or so due to the gloomy global backdrop and the rise in fear among investors. However, as the central banks of the U.S., Eurozone and Japan start to speak again, this unsteady market will take solid shape and decide the fate of several asset classes and sectors. Original Post