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How These 4 ETFs Will Benefit From A Rate Hike

With excellent October jobs data, the interest rates hike for December is back on the table. The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs in October, much above the market expectation of 180,000 and representing the strongest pace of a one-month jobs gain in 2015. The Fed in its latest FOMC meeting also hinted at a December lift-off if the U.S. economy remains on track. In a recent Wall Street Journal poll, about 92% of the economists believe that the first interest rate hike in almost a decade will come at the December 15-16 policy meeting, while 5% expect the Fed to wait until March. The rest expect the Fed to keep cheap money flowing for longer. This is especially true as recent headwinds have faded with substantial positive developments seen in the global economy and financial market lately. In particular, the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization on the back of better-than-expected GDP growth data and another rate cut while the Japanese and European central banks are seeking additional stimulus measures to revive their economies (read: China Investing: Should You Buy These New ETFs? ). Further, the U.S. economy is showing an impressive rebound after a lazy summer and is continuing to outpace the other economies. Though the manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in more than two years in October on a weak global economy and strong dollar, rise in new orders spread some hopes in the sector. Consumer confidence picked up in October, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index, which rose to 90 after dropping to 87.2 in September from 91.9 in August. Unemployment dropped to a new seven-year low to 5% in October from 5.1% in September and average hourly wages accelerated by 9 cents to $25.20 bringing the year-over-year increase to 2.5%, the sharpest growth since July 2009. The solid pay gains will increase consumer spending in the crucial holiday season, which will translate into stepped-up economic activities. Given the recently improving fundamentals, an increase in rates seems justified. As a result, investor should focus on the areas/sectors that will benefit the most in the rising rate environment. Here, we have detailed four of these and their best ETFs below: Financials A rising interest rate scenario would be highly profitable for the financial sector. This is because the steepening yield curve would bolster profits for banks, insurance companies and discount brokerage firms. A broad way to play this trend is with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLF ) , which has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or a ‘Buy’ rating with a Medium risk outlook (read: Rate Hike Coming in December? Financial ETFs & Stocks to Buy ). This is by far the most popular financial ETF in the space with AUM of $18.8 billion and an average daily volume of over 37.2 million shares. The fund follows the Financial Select Sector Index, holding 89 stocks in its basket. It is heavily concentrated on the top three firms – Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ), Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B ) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ) – with over 8% share each while other firms hold less than 6.2% share. In terms of industrial exposure, banks take the top spot at 37.2% while insurance, REITs, capital markets and diversified financial services make up for double-digit exposure each. The fund charges 14 bps in annual fees and has lost 1.2% in the year-to-date timeframe. Consumer Discretionary Consumer discretionary stocks also seem a good bet in the rising rate scenario. This is because these typically perform well in an improving economy justified by the healing job market, recovering housing market, surging stock market and expanding economic activities. Further cheap fuel is an added advantage for this sector. One exciting pick in this space can be the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA: VCR ) , which has a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 or a ‘Strong Buy’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. This fund follows the MSCI U.S. Investable Market Consumer Discretionary 25/50 Index and holds 384 stocks in its basket. This is the low choice in the space, charging investors just 12 bps in annual fees while volume is also solid at nearly 153,000 shares a day. The product has managed over $2 billion in its asset base so far. It is pretty spread out across sectors and securities with a slight tilt toward Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) at 7%, while other firms hold no more than 5.7% share. Internet retail, restaurants, movies and entertainment, and cable & satellite are the top four sectors accounting for over 10% of total assets. VCR has gained 8% so far this year. Short-Term Treasury Though the fixed income world is the worst hit by the rising rates scenario, a number of ETFs that employ some niche strategies like the iPath U.S. Treasury Steepener ETN (NASDAQ: STPP ) could lead to huge gains. This product directly capitalizes on rising interest rates and performs better when the yield curve is rising. The ETN looks to follow the Barclays U.S. Treasury 2Y/10Y Yield Curve Index, which delivers returns from the steepening of the yield curve through a notional rolling investment in U.S. Treasury note futures contracts. The fund takes a weighted long position in 2-year Treasury futures contracts and a weighted short position in 10-year Treasury futures contracts. STPP charges 0.75% in fees and expenses while volume is light at around 1,000 shares a day. Additionally, it is an unpopular bond ETF with AUM of just $2.5 million. The note has surged 4.6% in the year-to-date timeframe. Negative Duration Bond Negative duration bond ETFs offer exposure to traditional bonds while at the same time short Treasury bonds using derivatives such as interest-rate swaps, interest-rate options and Treasury futures. The short position will diminish the fund’s actual long duration, resulting in a negative duration. As a result, these bonds could act as a powerful hedge and a money enhancer in a rising rate environment. Currently, there are a couple of negative duration bond ETFs, out of which the WisdomTree Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Negative Duration ETF (NASDAQ: AGND ) has AUM of $17.9 million and average daily volume of 13,000 shares. This ETF tracks the Barclays Rate Hedged U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, Negative Five Duration. The benchmark provides long positions in the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which consists of Treasuries, government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, commercial MBS & ABS, and short positions in U.S. Treasuries corresponding to a duration exceeding the long portfolio, with duration of approximately negative 5 years. Expense ratio came in at 28 bps. The product has gained 0.3% so far this year. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Asset Class Update: Is Diversification Still A Free Lunch?

One might be led to believe that underwhelming performance in the large-cap benchmark might imply overwhelming performance elsewhere. When the bulk of risk asset classes are firing on all cylinders in a strong economy with reasonable valuations and desirable credit spreads, I am more inclined to pursue the free lunch of greater diversification. Right now, however, diversification across asset types and within asset types is a hindrance. According to Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a frequent contributor to CNBC as well as Bloomberg, ” the beauty of diversification is that it’s about as close as you can get to a free lunch in investing.” Since 2011, however, investors who diversified in stocks outside of the U.S. and who diversified across other asset types (e.g., commodities, currencies, gold, pipeline partnerships, etc.) have consistently underperformed the plain vanilla approach of owning the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY ) alongside a modest buffer of Vanguard Total Bond Market (NYSEARCA: BND ). Of course, the S&P 500 itself has struggled year-to-date (through 11/16). The price has essentially flat-lined over ten-and-a-half months at 0%. It follows that one might be led to believe that underwhelming performance in the large-cap benchmark might imply overwhelming performance elsewhere. After all, this is where diversification should shine. So, then, has the “free lunch” of diversification finally make a comeback? Hardly. Consider the list of 16 asset types and accompanying exchange-traded vehicles in the table below. An investor or money manager who dutifully maintained an allegiance to diversifying across asset classes (e.g., stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, etc.) as well as within those classifications (e.g., small, large, foreign, domestic, short, long, investment grade, higher-yielding, etc.) is not being rewarded for the effort. In some corners, the risk-adjusted negative returns might be superior to the risks associated with a large-cap-only portfolio. After four years, however, faith in the free lunch of diversification may be dissipating. It gets worse. As the end of 2015 approaches, tax-loss harvesters may decide that it is better to get rid of year-to-date losing propositions such as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA: IWM ), the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ), the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ), the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) and the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ). Meanwhile, the proceeds may flow back into the large-cap stock arena, where marginal gains still look better on paper than the losses from the less-than-desirable diversified results. On the other hand, you might not want to bet the house on a Santa Claus rally for the S&P 500 either. Granted, the large-cap barometer rocketed more than 10% off its 2015 lows (1867) in October, but it has been unable to make it back to its record high (2130) set in May. Why didn’t U.S. large-company stocks fully recover? The narrow breadth in risk asset leadership has acted like an anchor on the biggest of the big corporations. In other words, if mid-caps, small-caps, micro-caps, emerging markets, foreign developed markets, pipeline partnerships, REITs and high-yield bonds are all going to get knocked out like Ronda Rousey in the “Octagon,” there’s certainly no guarantee that large corporate shares will buck the prevailing trend. A faltering global economy (macro-econ), equity overvaluation (fundamentals) and weakening marker internals (technicals) led me to reduce risk before the August sell-off . For example, most moderate growth and income clients may have had 65%-70 stock (e.g., large, small, foreign, etc.) and 30%-35% income (e.g., short, long, investment grade, cross-over, higher-yielding, etc.). We shifted to 50%-55% equity, 25% bond, and 20%-25% cash to lower the exposure to risk assets of any kind. Equally important, we lowered the risk profile itself, where stocks were primarily domestic and bonds were primarily intermediate investment grade. The technical retest of the September lows coupled with key moves about trendline resistance led us to bump the large-cap equity component up to 60%, while leaving the 25% investment grade and 15% cash intact. That said, the current profile is still less exposed to risk than 65%-70% growth (e.g., large, small, foreign, etc.) and 30%-35% income (e.g., short, long, investment grade, cross-over, higher yielding, etc.). When the bulk of risk asset classes are firing on all cylinders in a strong economy with reasonable valuations and desirable credit spreads, I am more inclined to pursue the free lunch of greater diversification. Right now, however, diversification across asset types and within asset types is a hindrance. For a 60% (mostly large-cap domestic), 25% bond (mostly investment grade) and 15% cash/cash equivalent mix , I am employing stock ETFs like the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: IVV ), the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) and the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK ). I am also using bond funds like the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEI ), the SPDR Nuveen Barclays Municipal Bond ETF ( TFI) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ( BND ). For Gary’s latest podcast, click here . Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

American Funds Lack Luster In Q3: Funds That Saved Face

American Funds, proclaimed as one of the largest active fund managers, perhaps wants to forget its third quarter performance – the sooner the better. The handful of flimsy gainers compared to the horde of mutual funds that ended in the red painted a dismal picture of the quarter. None of the American Funds mutual funds could even reach a 2% gain in the third quarter, whereas 371 funds ended with at least a 5% loss. As for the broader markets, the key benchmarks suffered their worst loss in four years. In the third quarter, the Dow, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined 7.6%, 7% and 7.4%, respectively. In fact, calling the third quarter a bloodbath will not be far from the truth. Just 17% of the mutual funds managed to finish in the green in the third quarter. This was a slump from 41% in the second quarter, which was also a sharp fall from 87% of the funds that ended in the positive territory in the first quarter. However to justify American Funds’ dismal performance in relation with the broader markets will only be partially right. American Funds even failed to beat the modest-to-poor performances from key peers like Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Vanguard or T. Rowe Price mutual funds. American Funds in Q3: Comparative Study As mentioned, American Funds failed to beat its major peers. The best gain from this fund family was a meager 1.7% scored by the American Funds U.S. Government Securities Fund® Retirement (MUTF: RGVFX ) . This 1.7% gain was not only far short of the best gains achieved by key peers, but was also somewhere around the average gains that mutual funds from fund families like Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Vanguard, BlackRock or T. Rowe Price scored. In a quarter ravaged by headwinds, mutual funds from the Vanguard Group gave a decent performance. Its best gain hit 8.4%, achieved by the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund Inst (MUTF: VEDTX ) . Separately, Fidelity’s top-gainer, the Fidelity Spartan® Long Term Trust Bond Index Fund (MUTF: FLBAX ) , could post only 5.5% return. In fact, the only other fund that managed a 5% plus gain from this lineup is Investor class fund, the Fidelity Spartan® Long Term Trust Bond Index Fund Inv (MUTF: FLBIX ) . For T. Rowe Price, the T. Rowe Price U.S. Treasury Long Term Fund No Load (MUTF: PRULX ) gained 5.1% and was the best performer. However, it was the only fund in the 180 T. Rowe Price assortment we studied, that posted a 5% plus return. Franklin Templeton could put up a modest show in the tough third quarter. The Franklin Real Estate Securities Fund Retirement (MUTF: FSERX ) was the best gainer among the Franklin Templeton mutual funds, which gained only 3.4%. BlackRock’s best performer was the BlackRock Real Estate Securities Fund Inst (MUTF: BIREX ) , which gained 2.4%. The average gain from mutual funds that finished in the green for Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Vanguard and T. Rowe Price were 1.2%, 1.2%, 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively. Of the 629 American Funds mutual funds we studied, only 135 funds finished in the green with paltry gains. The average gain for these 135 funds was just over 1%. None of the funds could post above 2% return and 68 out of these 135 funds finished with sub 1% gain. Meanwhile, 493 American Funds mutual funds finished in the red. The average loss for these 493 funds was 6.6%. While 371 funds lost over 5%, 60 funds lost at least 10%. The biggest loser in the third quarter was the American Funds New World Fund® C (MUTF: CNWCX ) , which slumped 12.4%. In comparison, of the 626 funds we studied in the second quarter, 232 funds had finished in the green while 2 funds had break-even returns. The average gain for these 232 funds was 1.41%. This compared favorably to the average loss of -0.84% for the 392 funds in negative territory. (Note: The numbers include same funds of different classes) Top 15 American Funds Mutual Funds in Q3 Below we present the top 15 American Funds mutual fund performers of Q3 2015: Fund Name Objective Description Q3 Total Return Q3 % Rank vs Obj YTD Total Return % Yield Beta vs S&P 500 Load American Funds US Govt Sec R5 Government 1.72 5 2.43 1.39 -0.03 N American Funds High Inc Muni Bnd F2 Muni Natl 1.67 14 2.34 4.07 0.05 N American Funds Tax Exempt of CA A Muni CA 1.66 41 1.84 3.23 -0.01 Y American Funds US Govt Sec A Government 1.64 7 2.19 1.1 -0.03 Y American Funds High Inc Muni Bnd A Muni Natl 1.63 16 2.22 3.91 0.05 Y American Funds Mortgage A Govt-Mtg 1.56 3 2.08 1.04 -0.01 Y American Funds T/E Bd of America A Muni Natl 1.44 31 1.58 3.13 Y American Funds Tax Exempt of VA A Muni State 1.4 42 1.13 2.94 0.01 Y American Funds Tax Exempt Of NY A Muni NY 1.34 49 1.26 2.72 0.02 Y American Funds Tax Exempt of MD A Muni State 1.24 61 1.02 3.03 0.08 Y American Funds Tax-Exempt Prsrv A Muni Natl 0.99 67 0.98 2.29 Y American Funds Bnd Fd of Amer A Corp-Inv 0.96 9 0.85 1.85 -0.01 Y American Funds Bnd Fd of Amer 529A Corp-Inv 0.93 10 0.78 1.76 -0.01 Y American Funds Ltd Term T/E Bond A Muni Natl 0.91 70 0.95 2.3 -0.01 Y American Funds Intm Bd Fd Amer R5 Corp-Inv 0.9 12 1.79 1.45 -0.03 N Note: The list excludes the same funds with different classes, and institutional funds have been excluded. Funds having minimum initial investment above $5000 have been excluded. Q3 % Rank vs. Objective* equals the percentage the fund falls among its peers. Here, 1 being the best and 99 being the worst. Morningstar data showed many sub Municipal fund categories, such as Muni California Long, Muni Pennsylvania and Muni New York Long, featured in the top performers’ list for the third quarter. However, the gains were modest, with Muni California Long giving the best performance with a 1.7% gain in the quarter. Long Government funds category was the second-best gainer in the third quarter. According to Morningstar, Bear Market funds category gained 13.1% and Long Government was next in line with gains of 4.3%. So we see that among the American Funds’ best 15 gainers, the Government category is the top gainer. However, Municipal Bond funds dominate the top 15 gainers’ list. Among the Municipal funds, the American High-Income Municipal Bond Fund® (MUTF: AHMFX ) , the American Funds Tax-Exempt Fund California® A (MUTF: TAFTX ) and the American High-Income Municipal Bond Fund® A (MUTF: AMHIX ) sports a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Meanwhile, the American Funds Tax Exempt Bond Fund® A (MUTF: AFTEX ) holds a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 (Buy). Municipal funds the American Funds Tax Exempt Virginia Fund A (MUTF: TFVAX ) and the American Funds Tax-Exempt Fund of New York® A (MUTF: NYAAX ) carry a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #3 (Hold). However, while the American Funds Tax Exempt Maryland Fund A (MUTF: TMMDX ) and the American Funds Tax-Exempt Preservation Portfolio A (MUTF: TEPAX ) carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #4 (Sell), The American Funds Limited Term Tax-Exempt Bond Fund® A (MUTF: LTEBX ) has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5 (Strong Sell). Coming to the Government funds, top gainer the American Funds US Govt Sec R5 and fifth-placed the American Funds U.S. Government Securities Fund® A (MUTF: AMUSX ) carry a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. However, Government-Mortgage fund the American Funds Mortgage Fund® A (MUTF: MFAAX ) holds a Sell rating. Original Post