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Conservative Sector ETF Ideas For September

Over the last 20 Septembers, the S&P has posted an average performance of zero. If history repeats in September 2015, investors will want to take a conservative approach to sector exchange traded funds this month. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF is usually the top performer among the nine sector SPDRs in the month of September. By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor September is here and that is great news for fans of American football, but financial market data indicate equity bulls would do well to curb what enthusiasm they have left after a trying August. For believers in seasonal trends, it must be noted that over the last 20 Septembers, the S&P has posted an average performance of zero. The benchmark U.S. equity index is traditionally flat in September over that period, according to Equity Clock data. That does not mean sector-level opportunities cease to exist in the ninth month. Rather, the opposite is true, but if history repeats in September 2015, investors will want to take a conservative approach to sector exchange traded funds this month. Utilities The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLU ) is usually the top performer among the nine sector SPDRs in the month of September, averaging a modest gain in the ninth month of the year, according to CXO Advisory . XLU is in the midst of what is supposed to be a seasonally strong period for the largest utilities ETF as the fund is usually the second-best of the nine SPDRs in August. Indeed, XLU lived up to that track record, but underscoring just how poorly stocks performed last month, XLU lost 4 percent. Only the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ) was better among the nine SPDRs. Consumer Staples According to CXO data, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLP ) is usually the second-best of the nine SPDRs this month, though like the S&P 500, is usually about flat this month, reminding investors that sometimes less bad is good. However, before backing up the bus on XLP, investors should note that the largest staples ETF was usually the best of the sector SPDRs in August, but that historical data did not mean much as XLP tumbled 6.1 percent last month. Materials & Tech In terms of the worst of the nine SPDRs in September, that dubious honor goes to the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLB ) followed by the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK ). This is where things get interesting and those things are a reminder that seasonal trading often requires the user to be nimble. Historical data, courtesy of CXO, indicate XLU is usually the best SPDR this month, but that is before it turns into October’s worst. Conversely, XLK is historically the second-worst SPDR in September before it becomes the best of the nine in October. Disclaimer: Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Best And Worst August ETFs

August was the cruelest month for the U.S. stock market with volatility levels peaking and China roiling the markets. The worries intensified when China unexpectedly devalued its currency on August 11, triggering off a brutal sell-off across the globe and deepening fears of global growth. The slide in the stocks continued following the weak Chinese factory activity data and the dovish Fed minutes. All these market gyrations raised questions on the six-year bull market and pushed the major bourses into the correction territory, pushing them 10% down from their recent heights. However, the latest slew of better-than-expected economic data, fresh China stimulus, and bargain hunting helped stocks to recover from the correction territory. Still, the uncertainty over the interest rates hike is looming large as one of the Fed officials hinted at an unlikely September rise in interest rates while another sees the hike in the cards. Notably, Dow Jones tumbled 6.6% in August, indicating the largest monthly loss since May 2010 while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 6.3% and 6.9%, respectively, representing the biggest monthly loss since May 2012. Added to the woes are weakness in the emerging markets and the slump in commodities. Though oil prices continued their plunge in the month leading to a further slump in the broad commodities, most of the losses were erased in the final two days of last week. Notably, U.S. oil surged 17% in just two days, representing the biggest two-day rally in six years. On the other hand, the risk-off sentiments led to a flight-to-safety among investors, giving a boost to Treasuries and gold. That being said, we have highlighted the two best and worst ETF performers of last month. Best ETFs C-Tracks on Citi Volatility Index ETN (CVOL ) – Up 91.1% Volatility products gained the most in August, as these tend to outperform when markets are falling or fear levels over the future are high, both of which are happening lately. As such, CVOL linked to the Citi Volatility Index Total Return, jumped about 91% last month. The note provides investors with direct exposure to the implied volatility of large-cap U.S. stocks. The benchmark combines a daily rolling long exposure to the third and fourth month futures contracts on the VIX with short exposure to the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The product has amassed $5.7 million in its asset base while charging 1.15% in annual fees from investors. The note trades in good volume of more than 103,000 shares per day. Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDJ ) – Up 5.9% Though the rising interest rates concern has dulled the appeal for gold over the past several months, the uncertainty in the timing of the rates hike and global concerns are compelling investors to turn their focus on gold as a store of value. Acting as leveraged plays, gold miners tend to experience more gains than the gold bullion. SGDJ targets the small cap segment of the gold mining industry by tracking the Sprott Zacks Junior Gold Miners Index. The benchmark utilizes the factor-based methodology that seeks to emphasize companies with the strongest relative revenue growth and price momentum. In total, the fund holds a small basket of 33 stocks with the highest allocation to the top firm – Centerra Gold (NASDAQ: CG ) – at 8.8%. Other firms hold less than 5.8% of assets. In terms of country exposure, Canada takes the largest share at 74% while the U.S. receives just 13% of SGDJ. The fund has accumulated $20.1 million in AUM since its debut in March and sees a paltry volume of about 17,000 shares. Expense ratio came in higher at 0.57%. The fund gained nearly 6% in August. Worst ETFs Market Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSEARCA: CNXT ) – Down 23.9% Though the Chinese contagion spread globally, A-shares ETFs were the worst hit by the rout. As a result, CNXT, which had a torrid run in the first half of 2015, plunged 23.9% in August. This fund offers exposure to the largest and most-liquid China A-share stocks listed and trading on the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Board and the ChiNext Board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange by tracking the SME-ChiNext 100 index. It holds 102 stocks in its basket with none accounting for more than 4.30% share. About one-third of the portfolio is allotted to information technology, while industrials, consumer discretionary and health care round off the next three spots with double-digit exposure each. The product is unpopular and illiquid with AUM of $33 million and average daily volume of more than 141,000 shares. It charges 66 bps in fees per year. Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: KWT ) – Down 20.4% The solar industry is entangled in vicious oil trading given investors’ misconception that oil price and solar market fundamentals are directly related with each other. Given this, KWT tumbled over 20% last month. The fund manages $17.7 million in its asset base and provides global exposure to 33 solar stocks by tracking the Market Vectors Global Solar Energy Index. It is somewhat concentrated on the top 10 holdings with 57.3% of assets. In terms of country exposure, the U.S. and China account for the top two countries with 37.4% and 30.8% allocation, respectively, closely followed by Taiwan (15.5%). The product has an expense ratio of 0.65% and sees paltry volume of about 2,000 shares a day. Link to the original article on Zacks.com

Best And Worst Q3’15: Small Cap Value ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

Summary The Small Cap Value style ranks tenth in Q3’15. Based on an aggregation of ratings of 16 ETFs and 187 mutual funds. VBR is our top-rated Small Cap Value ETF and RSEIX is our top-rated Small Cap Value mutual fund. The Small Cap Value style ranks tenth out of the 12 fund styles as detailed in our Q3’15 Style Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. It gets our Dangerous rating, which is based on an aggregation of ratings of 16 ETFs and 187 mutual funds in the Small Cap Value style. See a recap of our Q2’15 Style Ratings here. Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst-rated ETFs and mutual funds in the style. Not all Small Cap Value style ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 14 to 1511). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Small Cap Value style should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated mutual funds from Figure 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 (click to enlarge) * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Direxion Value Line Small & Mid Cap High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: VLSM ) and the First Trust Mid Cap Value AlphaDEX ETF (NYSEARCA: FNK ) are excluded from Figure 1 because their total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 (click to enlarge) * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VBR ) is the top-rated Small Cap Value ETF and the Royce Special Equity Fund (MUTF: RSEIX ) is the top-rated Small Cap Value mutual fund. VBR earns a Neutral rating and RSEIX earns an Attractive rating. The PowerShares Russell 2000 Pure Value Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PXSV ) is the worst-rated Small Cap Value ETF and the ASTON River Road Independent Value Fund (MUTF: ARIVX ) is the worst-rated Small Cap Value mutual fund. Both earn a Very Dangerous rating. Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UVE ), is one of our favorite stocks held by Small Cap value Funds. After-tax profit ( NOPAT ) growth has picked up in recent years, and NOPAT has grown by 53% compounded annually since 2011. Universal currently earns a top-quintile return on invested capital ( ROIC ) of 43%, which is almost three times the 16% earned in 2011. Universal has dug itself a strong competitive position within the insurance industry, but the stock price does not yet reflect the strong cash flows the company generates. At the current price of $25/share, Universal has a price to economic book value ( PEBV ) of 1.0. This ratio implies that the market expects the company to never meaningfully grow profits for the remainder of its corporate life. If Universal can grow NOPAT by 16%, less than a third of the current rate, compounded annually for the next 5 years , the stock is worth $45/share – an 80% upside. Acacia Research Corp (NASDAQ: ACTG ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by Small Cap Value funds and earns our Very Dangerous rating. Since 2012, Acacia’s NOPAT has fallen from $60 million to -$42 million. The company currently earns a bottom-quintile -10% ROIC, which is well below the 22% earned in 2012. It appears that the market has not taken into account these fundamental issues, as the stock remains overvalued. To justify the current price of $9/share, Acacia must immediately achieve a 10% NOPBT margin (compared to -42% in 2014) and grow revenue by 16% compounded annually for the next 13 years . Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Small Cap Value ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst Funds (click to enlarge) Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Funds (click to enlarge) Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Max Lee receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, style or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.