Tag Archives: latin-america

Emerging Markets Back On Track: 5 Outperforming ETFs

Emerging markets, which were the worst hit by slowing economic growth, China turmoil and the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., seem to have been rebounding in recent weeks. This is especially true as the two most popular ETFs – the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) – climbed over 5% in the past five days against gains of 3.4% for the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (NASDAQ: ACWI ) and 3% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) , suggesting that the worst might be over. Impressive gains came on the back of stabilization in commodity prices, hopes of additional stimulus from central banks from Asia to Europe, and China’s latest step to arrest the slowdown that led to some gains in emerging market currencies. Additionally, investors’ lack of hope for a rate hike anytime soon fueled the rally in the stocks. Further, data from the Institute of International Finance, which showed that capital flows into emerging markets turned flat in February after seven straight months of outflows, injected fresh optimism into the emerging markets. Notably, net emerging market outflows decreased to $200 million last month, with Latin America pulling in the maximum capital of $2.7 billion, followed by inflows of $1.7 billion in Africa and the Middle East, $1.5 billion in Europe and $300 million in Asia. Apart from positive developments, low valuations made these stocks tempting. As a result, several emerging market ETFs performed remarkably well over the past five days. Of those, we have highlighted the ones that emerged as the true winners of this short-covering rally. PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PXH ) – Up 6.4% This ETF follows the FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Index and offers exposure to the largest emerging market stocks based on four fundamental measures – book value, cash flow, sales and dividends. Holding 336 securities in its basket, the fund allocates no more than 3.4% in a single security. Financials (31%) and energy (22.6%) take the top two spots. In terms of country holdings, about one-fourth of the portfolio goes to Chinese firms while Taiwan, Brazil, and Russia round off the next three spots with a double-digit exposure each. The fund has amassed $282.1 million in its asset base, and trades in a good volume of around 265,000 shares a day. It charges 49 bps in annual fees from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. iShares MSCI BRIC ETF (NYSEARCA: BKF ) – Up 5.7% This fund targets the four BRIC countries with highest exposure of 57.1% in China, 19.6% in India, 13.7% in Brazil and the rest in Russia. It tracks the MSCI BRIC Index and holds 308 stocks in its portfolio. However, it is skewed towards the top firm – Tencent Holdings ( OTCPK:TCEHY ) – at 6.82%. Other firms hold no more than 4.84% of assets. In terms of sector exposure, financials dominates the fund return with 30% of the portfolio, followed by information technology (18.4%) and energy (12.4%). The fund has accumulated $154.9 million in AUM and trades at a lower volume of 21,000 shares per day on average. It charges 72 bps in expense ratio and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. EGShares Emerging Market Consumer ETF (NYSEARCA: ECON ) – Up 5.5% This ETF targets the consumer sector of the emerging markets by tracking the Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30 Index. It holds 30 stocks in its basket with heavy concentration on the top firm – Naspers ( OTCPK:NPSNY ) – at 10.3%. The other firms hold less than 5.7% share. From a country look, South Africa occupies the top position with one-fourth of the portfolio while China and Mexico round off the top three with over 16% share. The fund has amassed $549.6 million in its asset base and sees solid average trading volume of more than 352,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in at 0.83%. Schwab Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHE ) – Up 5.5% This fund tracks the FTSE Emerging Index, holding 776 stocks in its basket. None of the securities accounts for more than 4% of total assets. The product is slightly tilted towards financials at 25%, closely followed by technology (14%) and energy (8%). Here again, China takes the top spot at 26.5% while Taiwan and India receive a double-digit allocation each. SCHE is one of the popular and liquid options in the emerging market space with AUM of $1.5 billion and average daily volume of 848,000 shares. It charges 14 bps in fees per year from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX ETF (NYSEARCA: FEMS ) – Up 5.5% This fund follows the NASDAQ AlphaDEX Emerging Markets Small Cap Index and targets the small cap segment of the emerging market space. Holding 206 securities, the fund is well spread out across each component as each security holds less than 1.5% share. Taiwanese firms take the top spot at nearly 24.2%, closely followed by China (18.2%) and Brazil (12.4%). From a sector look, about one-fifth of the portfolio is allocated to information technology while financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary round off the next three spots with a double-digit allocation each. The product is often overlooked by investors, as depicted by AUM of $36.3 million and average daily volume of roughly 22,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in higher at 0.80%. Original Post

Enersis Is A Defensive LatAm Play With Attractive Yield And Significant Growth Potential

Enersis S.A. (NYSE: ENI ) Fundamentals (FYE- Dec. 31 st ) Enersis S.A. is a Chilean integrated electricity holding company and a subsidiary of Italy-based multinational energy group Enel (60.6% stake). Enersis is the largest private power platform in Latin America owning 17.3 GW of installed generation capacity spread between Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Peru. Enersis controls six distribution companies that service 15.1 million clients: Chilectra (Chile), Ampla and Coelce (Brazil), Edesur (Argentina), Edelnor (Peru) and Codensa (Colombia). Enersis’ main subsidiary is listed generation company Endesa Chile (60% stake). Enersis corporate restructuring – The spinoffs will become effective in 1Q16, creating six companies: ENI Chile and Americas, EOC Chile and Americas, Chilectra Chile and Americas. ENI Americas will launch a tender offer for EOC Americas’ minority shareholders in 2Q16. The second EGMs to vote the merger of the Americas entities to create ENI Americas will occur 90 days after the split – 60 days of trading plus 30 days prior to the session. Minority shareholders will have a withdrawal right period of up to 30 days after the second round of EGMs. The merger of Enersis Americas is expected to complete in 3Q16 (around July/August). In order to persuade the AFPs (Chilean managers of pension funds) to vote in favor of the restructuring, which proved successful, ENI’s Board of Directors resolved to amend the proposal for the tender offer for EOC Americas’ shareholders (post-split), raising the price from CLP (Chilean Peso) 236/sh to CLP285/sh. Financials FYE- Dec. 31 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 In US$ mn Revenue 9,393.9 9,352.9 9,297.20 8,965.86 10,381.96 Revenue growth (%) 1.41 (0.44) (0.60) (3.56) 15.79 Gross profit 3,817.4 3,746.8 3,492.8 3,966.7 4,113.4 Gross profit margin (%) 40.6 40.1 37.6 44.2 39.6 Operating profit 2,439.2 2,241.7 2,105.0 2,491.9 2,562.5 Operating profit margin (%) 25.9 23.9 22.6 27.8 24.7 Net profit 695.9 537.4 540.1 942.5 873.3 Net profit margin (%) 7.4 5.7 5.8 10.5 8.4 EPS (GAAP) 1.04 0.80 0.83 0.96 0.89 Dividends per Share 0.33 0.53 0.41 0.30 0.48 Capital Expenditures 1,003.5 978.7 1,008.2 1,106.0 1,554.9 Cash & ST Investments 1,387.1 1,747.3 1,445.9 3,375.1 2,570.1 Total Assets 18,614.4 19,656.3 18,958.8 21,722.7 22,787.1 Total Debt 5,269.3 5,643.9 4,778.7 4,971.8 5,132.7 Total Equity 5,346.4 5,575.7 5,572.9 8,828.6 8,876.4 ROA 8.40 6.53 6.62 7.83 6.62 ROE 13.41 9.84 9.69 13.09 9.86 No. of Employees 12,264 10,844 11,087 11,574 12,275 Competitive Advantage The company owns a difficult-to-replicate network of transmission and distribution assets providing essential electricity to its customers. Its hydroelectric generating plants, around 50% of its generating fleet, are some of the lowest cost power-generation sources and have extremely long operating lives. Chile represents almost 25% of consolidated EBITDA net of minority interest and is widely recognized as the most stable market in Latin America. It also has the region’s most predictable and reliable regulatory framework. Enersis’ true earnings power has been masked by recent droughts in several countries and hence gross margins are expected to improve once normal rainfall returns. Major Risks Hydrology risks – In a scenario of continued scarce rainfall, lower hydro load factors would be compensated by higher thermal load factors leading to higher expenses and lower margins Deteriorating Brazilian economics and utility sector fundamentals – Further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions in Brazil, power rationing and unfavorable regulatory changes are some of the risks that could negatively impact and may lead to substantially lower demand Rationing in Chile – A scenario of extremely low rainfall and thermal shutdown (due to unavailability of fuel) could lead to power rationing which would negatively impact the company Corporate restructuring remains an overhang Outlook Targeting growth in Brazil – Enersis has US$1.2B left from the 2012 capital increase to be used in M&A in Brazil, and the company’s priority is to grow in the distribution business. Its holding is targeting distressed distribution concessions from Eletrobras (NYSE: EBR ) that is likely to be privatized in 2016. The first in the pipeline is Goiás-based disCo Celg whose lengthy privatization process has just kicked off. Brazil is expected to be the main growth platform for the future Enersis Americas, as Colombia and Peru impose market share restrictions for the company which restrict growth potential while Brazil doesn’t have such restrictions. Colombia and Peru forbid Endesa Chile from having a market share in generation of more than 25%. Enersis has a market share of 22% in the Colombian generation sector and 24% in the Peruvian sector, and hence, Enersis could add no more than ~470 MW in Colombia and ~100 MW in Peru, while in Brazil, the growth potential is hypothetically unlimited. Environmental and social issues in Chile limit the approval and construction of new generation projects while Argentinean macroeconomics remained as an impediment to new investments in the past several years. Sound dividend stream in the near future – Post the conclusion of El Quimbo (late 2015), the only Greenfield project under construction will be Los Cóndores which is expected to start-up in late 2018/early 2019 with a capex budget of US$662M to be spent over four years. Hence, a boost in cash flow generation that should allow Endesa Chile to pay higher dividends, with an estimated dividend yield of 3-4% from 2016 onwards, could be attractive to defensive investors searching for yield. Investment Rationale & Conclusion LatAm consolidator poised to grow – Post the ongoing corporate reorganization, Enersis will focus on growth in Latin America and will prioritize Brazil which is hiking return rates for new investments. Low levered at 0.9x net debt/EBITDA, and with US$1.7B cash left from the 2012 capital increase, Enersis will also look for growth outside Chile and has declared interest in acquiring Brazilian distribution assets. Argentina is an important optionality for Enersis – The Argentine generation units El Chocón, Endesa Costanera and Dock Sud represent 26% of Enersis’ generation capacity but only 6% of the genCo business EBITDA. The distribution company Edesur accounts for 24% of Enersis’ distribution sales volumes but contributed with only 10% of consolidated disCo EBITDA in 9M15, and hence, its margins in Argentina are expected to significantly improve over the next few years. Enersis’ stock provides an attractive valuation and, most importantly, offers the greatest upside potential coming from regulatory improvements in Argentina and growth in Brazil (Greenfield and brownfield projects). It provides a direct exposure to the benefits of El Niño and recovering hydrology in Chilean utilities. Colombia and Peru are expected to outperform their South American peers in terms of GDP and power demand growth, offering opportunities for Endesa Chile which is the most relevant player in both countries behind the local players. Enersis currently trades at $12.77 (closing price as of Feb. 22, P/E TTM of 11.76), with its 52-week range of $10.33-$18.72, and looks attractive with strong potential to outperform over the medium to long term for reasons outlined below – The impact of a stronger El Nino phenomenon will results in normal rains and will decrease operational expenses, resulting in higher margins. Margin gains resulting from lower fuel prices to drive profitability. Significant potential from Brazil and Argentina markets to drive growth. Endesa’s experience and track record in Peru and Colombia will be key drivers for capturing growth opportunities in those markets. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: References : Company Annual Reports, Company Press Releases, Investor presentations, SEC Filings -Form 20-F and 6-K, Morningstar, BNamericas, Yahoo Finance