Tag Archives: investing

IVE: Why To Get Back Into Value With This ETF

By Jonathan Jones and Tom Lydon The value factor is starting to shake off several years of slack performance to outpace its growth and momentum counterparts as investors yearn for safer destinations in 2016, according to industry analyst ETF Trends . That is proving to be good news for exchange traded funds such as the $9.4 billion iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEArca: IVE ) . “It’s got a nice 2.5% dividend and when you are stuck in a trading range you want to be in value,” said Brock Moseley, president of Miracle Mile Advisors, of IVE in an interview with TheStreet.com . As the market cools off and moves toward more stable growth, exchange traded funds that track the value style may outperform. “Should economic conditions continue to stabilize, value stocks may be one of the bigger beneficiaries,” according to Russ Koesterich, Global Chief Investment Strategist and Head of the Model Portfolio & Solutions Business at BlackRock . “Value typically outperforms during periods when economic conditions are improving.” Value stocks typically trade at cheaper prices relative to fundamental measures of value, such as earnings and the book value of assets. In contrast, growth stocks tend to run at higher valuations since investors expect rapid growth in those company measures. IVE holds nearly 370 stocks, almost 24% of which are financial services names. Energy stocks account for over 12% of IVE’s weight and healthcare and industrial stocks each command allocations of more than 11%. The S&P 500 Value ETF showed a 14.62 price-to-earnings and a 1.65 price-to-book. In contrast, the S&P 500 Growth ETF has a 19.34 P/E and a 3.99 P/B while the S&P 500 Index ETF was trading at a 16.7 P/E and a 2.34 P/B. Plain vanilla index ETFs that track the value theme has outperformed so far this year, or at least have not done as poorly as broader benchmarks. Nevertheless, potential investors should still look under the hood of these value stock ETFs as no two are created alike and offer varying performances. iShares S&P 500 Value ETF Click to enlarge Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Secrets Of 2015’s Top 3 New Hedge Funds On Interactive Brokers Hedge Fund Marketplace

A great place to look for the smartest managers: Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR ) has long been the trading venue of choice for sophisticated high net worth investors. Chairman and CEO Thomas Peterffy once explained the reason for this: “We believe that the better the prices we get for our customers, the better their performance will be and the more business they will bring to us. On the other hand, our competitors believe that most customers cannot tell the difference between good and bad executions. I think we’re both right. As a result, they end up with the customers who cannot tell the difference, and we end up with those who can. I like the side we are on. ” The point he is making applies equally to new hedge fund managers; the smartest, most client-oriented managers will find their way to the trading platform with the lowest-cost and best execution. Interactive Brokers leads by a mile in this respect due to its highly automated processes. It can be extremely difficult to find smart new hedge fund managers due to marketing restrictions that regulators impose. For that reason I was very excited to learn of the new Hedge Fund Marketplace that Interactive Brokers recently launched. This allows clients who are high net worth/accredited investors to request information on those funds which use Interactive Brokers for trade execution. If investors like what they see, they can invest directly in the funds through the platform. Given that the smartest new managers are likely to migrate to the IBKR platform for its low costs, the Marketplace should represent an excellent source of prospective hedge fund investments. With this in mind I looked up the top 3 new funds in the Marketplace based on 2015 returns. Since performance is generally higher for new hedge funds , I restricted my analysis to those that were founded from 2014 onwards. 1. Summit Premium Plus Fund Limited Partnership Fund manager contact: Malcolm Clissold Investment approach: Mr. Clissold runs a registered investment advisor known as SCC Capital Group . Mr. Clissold’s investment approach is to use technical analysis and a quant-oriented approach to position the fund’s investment portfolio. The technical indicators used to time investments include advance/decline measures, new highs/lows, interest rate measures, price/volume measures, price/volume trends and relative strength indicators. Discussion: From the detail given on technical measures used, these appear to be fairly well-known techniques so the magic of this fund is probably in its quant model. It can be difficult to assess quantitative strategies without knowing the inner workings of the “black box”, which of course managers are hesitant to publish. Prospective investors in this fund should request that detail in a discussion with the manager. Since speaking with the manager is outside the scope of this analysis, I’ll move on to other funds where it’s possible to figure out the source of superior returns from the available written material. 2. Shannonside Capital Fund Fund manager contact : Brian Flynn Investment approach: Shannonside follows a long-term, fundamental value approach in its long/short stock-picking strategy . The manager conducts extensive research calls to industry experts in addition to reading all the company filings, news archives and conference call transcripts to build up a mosaic on prospective investments. They look to invest in situations where the picture that they’ve meticulously assembled on a company is different from what the market (mis)perceives . This is the kind of second-level thinking that Howard Marks describes as critical to generating superior returns and is a solid reason for believing that an investment could be a bargain. It is also a very difficult approach to copy due to its time-intensive nature. The fund holds a concentrated portfolio with large positions taken in its top ideas. Discussion: Shannonside can go the extra mile with its research because it first filters the investment universe down to a smaller pool of interesting stocks using proprietary screens. These guys are willing to hold a concentrated portfolio in their best ideas. Hence they can focus their research on a small number of promising opportunities. Other managers that can’t handle volatility must be much more diversified (the norm is to hold over 200 stocks). Diversified managers can’t focus on their top ideas because they have to spread research efforts among many more stocks. Diversification (deworsification?) is the norm in the fund management industry because most managers are afraid of losing their jobs if they under-perform in the short run. My point is that Shannonside’s process is difficult for other managers to copy. As such it may generate superior returns for many years to come. Negatives: As a European-domiciled fund, Shannonside Capital Fund is not currently available to U.S. investors. It is a concentrated fund with big positions in its top ideas so it is only suitable for investors that can ride out temporary volatility along the way to building long-term wealth. For those who can, Shannonside may present the opportunity for excellent returns of the kind the fund earned in 2015. 3. Phoenix Capital Fund, LP (Note – I’m only analyzing new funds here so some older funds that had higher returns than Phoenix in 2015 are not discussed) Fund manager contacts : Erik Trofatter, Jordan Causer Investment approach : Short option premium selling. Phoenix’s managers sell short high probability, out-of-the-money option premium on liquid and efficient underlying securities. Furthermore, the fund times its trades in an attempt to sell short option premium on underlying securities that are trading at the high range of their implied volatility. Discussion: Out-of-the money call options with strike prices far above the current market security price are like lottery tickets – there is a low probability that they pay off big if the security moves up by a lot but most people who buy these will lose the amount they paid for their “ticket”. By going short a portfolio of out-of-the-money call options, Phoenix is like a lottery operator – selling overpriced “tickets” to all the punters who dream of hitting it big. On the other side of the spectrum, nervous investors are also willing to pay a steep price for insurance against extreme downside events. By going short a portfolio of out-of-the money put options, Phoenix is like an insurance company that sells insurance for 100-year storms to buyers whose area only gets hit by a storm once in a thousand years. By timing trades, Phoenix is like an insurer that tries to only sell insurance when insurance premiums are expensive. In other words, it seeks to sell when volatility is high with the hope that vol will revert to the lower norms of the past. In selling lottery tickets and tail-risk insurance, the fund appears to be designed to take advantage of the human tendency to pay too much for these products. Peoples’ willingness to pay above the odds is a result of a bias to overweight low-probability events. This ingrained tendency was studied by Daniel Kahneman (author of “Thinking Fast and Slow”) and Amos Tversky when they developed prospect theory . The result of this bias is that positive long-term rewards are possible for firms that sell lottery tickets and insurance to the “suckers” that pay too much. If this is what Phoenix is doing, they could certainly generate excess returns for years to come. Negatives: The main downside to this type of strategy is that it could be like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. The fund could appear to be consistently profitable by earning premiums from selling out-of-the-money options, and then a flash crash or 1987-style rout hits and suddenly all the out-of-the money put options jump to become in-the-money. In such a market, losses from selling puts could result in a big hit to the portfolio. I think the best way to get comfortable with this risk is to appropriately size any prospective investment in the fund. Conclusions: Hedge fund managers generally have their best years when they are young, hungry and driven but due to marketing restrictions this is also when they are hardest to find. Interactive Brokers Hedge Fund Marketplace is an exciting new place to discover managers at this early stage. This service should accelerate IBKR’s growth because it will attract new hedge fund clients to its brokerage platform. It is great for clients because they can find rising hedge fund stars and it is great for the funds because new clients can invest through the platform. As discussed above, I think I’ve found funds that could generate superior returns for investors for years to come. I’m excited to look further because I’ve only scratched the surface of what is available. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SHANNONSIDE OR PHOENIX over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Let TransCanada Pump Income Into Your Portfolio

Click to enlarge TransCanada Corp (NYSE: TRP ) is a huge North American pipeline company whose network includes over 3,460 kilometers of oil pipeline and over 67,000 kilometers of gas pipeline that transports approximately 20% of North America’s gas. They currently own over $64 billion worth of assets which includes pipelines as well as storage for gas and oil. TransCanada faced huge headwinds in 2015 as the stock dropped as low as -32% from its 2014 high. The stock currently yield a very bountiful 4.7% and has partially rallied from its nasty dip last year, the company has a great history of dividend growth and share buybacks and I think TransCanada represents a good opportunity to buy in on its weakness considering its very impressive ability to grow its revenue. Huge projects to continue TransCanada’s impressive revenue growth TransCanada currently has $13 billion worth of projects that are expected to be operational by 2018 and $45 billion worth of long term projects that are due after. These projects will be a consistent driver of growth for both the medium and long term as the cash flows continue to increase to support the very generous dividend that TransCanada rewards to its shareholders. There has also been talks of acquisitions as TransCanada is reported to be interested in Columbia Pipeline Group for a deal expected to be worth over $10 billion, I believe such a project would unlock value for investors in the long term as Columbia would add over 24,000 kilometers of U.S. gas pipeline to TransCanada’s portfolio. It is clear that TransCanada is focused on growing its pipeline exposure in North America and I believe management is very capable of delivering consistent growth over the long term. Risk: Government rejection of pipeline projects Barack Obama recently rejected the Keystone pipeline which was a huge opportunity for TransCanada to expand, this currently puts phase 4 of the pipeline on hold which consists of over 526 kilometers of new pipeline running through Montana. It is expected that this project may be reviewed at a later time but for now TransCanada will have to focus on expanding elsewhere. There is always the risk that further pipeline expansions will be rejected, although this is a setback – I do not believe that it will stop TransCanada from trying to expand in other areas in order to achieve top of the line growth. Decent Q4 2015 earnings despite energy headwinds TransCanada reported beat analyst expectations for EPS reporting $0.64 compared to $0.61, but missed for revenue as they reported $2.85 billion compared to $2.89 billion expected. TransCanada still had decent revenue growth due to growth in its natural gas pipeline division where it enjoyed a 6.3% growth to $1.49 billion, the energy division which saw 14.5% growth to $895 million and the liquid pipeline division which saw 7.8% growth to $469 million. TransCanada also increased its dividend by 8.7% to $0.56 per share which is a sign of confidence from the management. Safe and growing dividend when combined with share buybacks makes for a very attractive pick TransCanada has increased its dividend for over 15 years straight and I believe income investors should feel very comfortable holding onto this stock as its cash flow growth is very attractive and they are very capable of sustaining its high yield. Given the huge growth potential TransCanada expects dividends to increase up to 10% each year, this makes the stock a dividend growth hero that I believe every investor should consider adding to their portfolios. Warren Buffett is bullish on pipelines as he picked up a huge amount of shares in TransCanada’s competitor Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI ). Income investors should pick up the stock and its huge 4.7% yield as I do not believe the current weakness caused by energy woes will last forever. While there are risks of future pipeline rejections, I believe that these concerns will not slow TransCanada’s growth significantly. Dividend investors can sleep well feel safe holding TransCanada and its fat yield as it rebounds from the energy weakness in 2016. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.