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3 ETFs Covering The Defense Industry
Summary PPA offers the broadest, most diverse portfolio, extending its coverage to cybersecurity and communications, but at a cost. ITA offers the highest dividend yield, but also seems to lack the performance edge of the other funds. XAR has a small portfolio, and has the fewest assets of the three, but may have performance advantages. Given current world tensions, there is no wonder one of the major concerns in Washington, D.C. (particularly Republican legislators) is national defense; in particular, there is a great desire to increase military spending, with both parties seeking ways to add more funds to the defense budget, differing only on how much and how to account for it. 1 It seems like a good time to review one’s holdings in the area of defense, and it also seems that a good way to cast a wide net over this industry segment is with an ETF. There are currently three that focus on aerospace and defense (A&D): PowerShares Aerospace & Defense Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PPA ) iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA: ITA ) SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA: XAR ) Comparison These funds are offered by three of the major ETF sources, and they show it. The smaller of the three – XAR – weighs in at more than $100 million in assets; it is also the youngest of the three (relatively speaking), having its inception in 2011. Blackrock (NYSE: BLK ) gives its iShares offering, ITA , typical heft with a $458 million in assets under management. PPA brings a NAV of nearly $230 million. XAR also has the lowest expense ratio (0.35%) of the three, with ITA next lowest (0.45%) and PPA coming in with a just-above-average ER of 0.66%. 2 In more practical terms, ITA has an expense margin (EM) of 74.83%, compared to XAR’s EM of 72.50% and PPA’s 58.78% EM. 3 The three funds overlap on 27 companies – something one would expect given the tight focus of the associated indices. Moreover, eight of those companies show up in the top-ten holdings of each of the funds: The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) Rockwell Collins Inc. (NYSE: COL ) General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD ) Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT ) Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC ) Precision Castparts Corp. (NYSE: PCP ) Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN ) United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX ) Of the three funds, ITA and XAR are the most similar. Both are guided by similar indexes – that is, to the extent that the S&P index used by XAR and the Dow Jones index employed by ITA can be said to be “similar.” ITA has the larger portfolio – both in terms of number of holdings and assets – but in addition to the 27 companies they have in common with each other and with PPA , ITA and XAR overlap on an additional five holdings. In this respect, the two funds are almost identical. All three funds make their selections based on market cap , with ITA and XAR also introducing liquidity considerations. The funds are rebalanced quarterly. By way of contrasts, PPA and XAR each has an aspect with respect to which it differs from the others in the group. PPA defines A&D in broader terms than the other two funds, allowing it to define a larger universe of prospective holdings and resulting in a significantly larger number of holdings than either ITA and XAR . The broader concept of A&D adds companies in communications and cybersecurity to the mix; the portfolio is therefore more diverse and less focused than that of the fund’s competitors. While both PPA and ITA are cap-weighted funds, XAR is equal weighted. As I have written elsewhere, I do have a preference for equal-weighted funds; 4 research indicates that, over the long haul, such funds tend to outperform cap-weighted funds – indeed, they tend to be among the best-performing funds. The boost is due to the fact that equal-weighted funds put more emphasis on mid – and small – capped companies , which are more likely to see significant growths in share value than large-capped firms. At the same time, however, the greater exposure to small-capped holdings – in particular – adds an increased element of volatility . Performance All of the funds have enjoyed fairly consistent growth since their inceptions, as illustrated here: (click to enlarge) Of course, ITA and PPA both had to contend with the recession from 2007 – 2009, and ITA seems to have been particularly hard hit. All three funds have managed to more than double their share values. A direct comparison of performance on the basis of price is not easy, given the differences in share prices, but the following chart looks at the funds’ performance: (click to enlarge) All three funds seem to be following the same general trend, and it seems doubtful that PPA ‘s broader focus has made any significant improvement in performance (although it does perform somewhat better than the other two funds). For a more direct comparison of the three funds the following chart compares their performance since the inception of XAR : (click to enlarge) What I find interesting here is that both ITA and PPA are very close in performance, with PPA having a roughly 320bps edge over ITA (due to the larger number of holdings?). But note that XAR significantly outperforms the competition; it currently has a 1335bps lead over PPA , and that is down from its position at the beginning of 2015. 5 Since XAR has the smallest portfolio of the group, it is not size that counts; furthermore, the three funds overlap on a significant part of their holdings – particularly between XAR and ITA – making it less likely that the particular holdings of the funds is the cause of the difference in performance. I am drawn to the conclusion that XAR’s weighting scheme is the important factor in its performance. The following chart illustrates the funds’ performance year-to-date: (click to enlarge) What is interesting to note here is that while XAR was outperforming the other two funds for most of the year (so far), after the dramatic drops realized over the past summer XAR is actually performing at a lower level than the other two funds. This gives us a rather dramatic illustration of the downside to equal weighting. Assessment I am increasingly becoming a big fan of equal weighting. All things considered, I find XAR to be the best of these three funds. It has a trim portfolio – especially compared to PPA’s 53 holdings – and its equally weighted portfolio seems to have a marked edge over the more standard, cap-weighted portfolios offered by PPA and ITA . Someone wanting to cast a broader net over the defense industry might prefer the more open focus of PPA . That broader focus does come at a price, as PPA offers the lowest dividend yield of the three. This may be due to the fact that cybersecurity firms often do not pay dividends, but the just-under-$230-million NAV and seven million shares outstanding certainly don’t help here. I do not think that the difference in dividends between PPA and ITA outweighs the performance edge PPA seems to have, however. PPA does have a very high ER , and does seem to be more lightly traded than either ITA or XAR . For its part, ITA offers the typical BlackRock advantage: size . It is by far the largest ETF in terms of AUM. Its cap-weighted scheme, along with the assets it has to back that up, pretty much assure shareholders of regular dividends . The fact that it has only roughly 4.5 million shares outstanding (compared to PPA’s seven million) means the distributions are not going to be overly diluted. Disclaimers This article is for informational use only. It is not intended as a recommendation or inducement to purchase or sell any financial instrument issued by or pertaining to any company or fund mentioned or described herein. All data contained herein is accurate to the best of my ability to ascertain, and is drawn from the Company’s Prospectus, Statement of Additional Information, and fact sheets. All tables, charts and graphs are produced by me using data acquired from pertinent documents; historical price data from Yahoo! Finance . Data from any other sources (if used) is cited as such. All opinions contained herein are mine unless otherwise indicated. The opinions of others that may be included are identified as such and do not necessarily reflect my own views. Before investing, readers are reminded that they are responsible for performing their own due diligence; they are also reminded that it is possible to lose part or all of their invested money. Please invest carefully. 1 On October 1, for instance, House Republicans approved a $612 billion defense authorization bill (” House passes sweeping defense policy bill ,” Reuters, October 1, 2015), a bill President Obama has promised to veto. The President seeks a more modest increase in spending, suggesting a base budget of $534 billion, with an additional $51 billion in “war funds” (” Defense chief says Obama likely to veto defense policy bill ,” Reuters, September 30, 2015). 2 Expenses have been averaging around 0.62%. ” ETF Fees Creep Higher ,” Rick Ferri, Forbes.com . According to Ferri, figures indicated that since the 1990s, ERs have been gradually increasing. 3 For those unfamiliar with my use of “expense margin,” this is what I consider to be the ETF’s equivalent of “operating margin”: it is the cost of the ETF’s doing business. To determine the EM divide the actual net income realized by the ETF by the ETF’s gross income. One could replace net income with total distributions to shareholders. Essentially, the idea is to determine how much of an ETF’s income is passed on to shareholders. I discuss the issue in detail in my article ” Ignore ETF Expense Ratios? Maybe. ” As a practical application, consider that while XAR has a lower ER than ITA, it actually distributes smaller proportion of its gross income than ITA does. Since XAR’s expenses are lower, one would suspect that it does not realize as much income (proportionately) as ITA. 4 ” Guggenheim s RSP: Equal Weight Or Dead Weight? ” 5 At XAR’s high point for this year (10 April), it was up 153% since inception; PPA was up 148.96% since its inception; ITA was up 141.27% from its starting point. More impressively, starting all three funds from XAR’s inception date through 10 April 2015, XAR was up 153.30%, PPA was up 124.49% and ITA was up 125.48%.
Can You Bet On Duke?
Summary There are multiple concerns with the company right now regarding lawsuits and blackouts, but this company is taking all the right steps towards clean energy to foster long-term growth. Focusing in on the stock’s current level after August/September volatility is key to deciding whether or not an entry point is plausible right now. It’s consistent dividend, but inconsistent cash flow is worrisome, yet I believe the company will pull through.. Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK ) is one of the most stable companies in my portfolio, but is starting to really look like a growth story based upon the ventures its undertaking. The stock rose quite confidently through August before getting hammered by speculation on the Fed in September. I view the mid-September bottom as the lowest level for the rest of the year, unless more Fed speculation develops. I’d argue that Duke is going to trend higher based upon internal factors now, as their shift towards clean energy is creating significant long-term growth opportunities. Performance It’s been a while since I last wrote on Duke, and probably fair enough considering it’s a utility company and its catalysts typically aren’t notable enough to reiterate on a short time frame. Duke, however, is special. This company is constantly in the news, whether it’s about the coal basin fines or its movement to get low-cost energy to east coast residents in a variety of ways, creating a lot of activity in the stock. You can view the YTD trend below: (click to enlarge) Source: StockCharts Growth Catalysts I use this company primarily as a safe investment because I believe utility companies, in theory, are very stable and predictable investments. While the YTD price trend won’t necessarily agree with me, Duke is starting to present itself as a great growth opportunity and to really clarify the forward-looking catalysts, I’m examining the following: Duke has applied for a permit to build a solar facility in Osceloa County in Orlando, FL by spring 2016. This solar facility is expected to bring 500 MW to the county by 2024, which makes it a very large-scale project. Duke is applying for a permit next month to build a natural gas plant in Asheville. It’s approval could come by the end of this year and would serve as a significant catalyst for the stock. They’re closing their already standing electric steam plant in Asheville (378 MW) and replacing it with this new plant, whose capacity is 650 MW. Since 2008, the company has spent $4 billion on wind and solar projects, which helps replace the energy needs of its customers as more coal-fired power plants are retired; while this is the more long-term direction of the company, but is a solid basis for those considering a long position Hurricane Joaquin could negatively impact the stock depending on the number of blackouts that occur and are attributable to Duke Expenditures to close the coal ash basins in an environmentally responsible manner will continue to occur, with the most recent payout being $7 million. They’re due to pay another $10-15 million by 2029 for this location. Fourteen total basins are required to be closed. The $90 million Indiana power plant payment has already been priced into the stock, in my opinion. Marginally lower utility rates for South Carolinians thanks to lower natural gas and lower coal prices. The finishing of several natural gas pipelines from the Marcellus is going to bring low-cost energy to east coast residents, allowing Duke to take advantage. These pipelines have been stalled from completion in the past, but are on track to finish by mid-late November. Keeping an eye on treasury yields is a good idea as these generally move in an inverse trend to utility stocks like Duke. As a further consideration, Duke has been one of the biggest movers on interest rate speculation in recent months and if interest rates do get hiked, Duke will see a noticeable pullback. I do not believe the Fed will hike rates in October, but there will still be added volatility as we near Yellen’s next speech. What’s notable about these growth catalysts is that Duke is moving away from harmful, nonrenewable energy sources towards cleaner fuels like natural gas and solar, which helps to not only make this company more of an ethical investment, but also helps it to reduce operating costs in the long-term and service a wider range of individuals. When you think about that value proposition, it’s hard to not justify an initial entry into the stock right now. From a financial standpoint, I think this company is heading into Q3 earnings with a lot of confidence. It has its highest TTM ROE in two years at 6.91%, and revenue, net income, and EBITDA are all up from a low Q1, which can springboard some easy growth rates for the next earnings report. Additionally, Duke is in constant conversation with federal and state governments about lowering the tax burden that they currently face. If this can retract even a percentage point, Duke is going to be in that much better position. Dividend Consideration The stock is currently yielding 4.67% and it’s worth noting that this is the 88th year in a row that Duke has paid a dividend, that’s nothing short of pure consistency. The dividend that was paid out on Sept. 16 was up 3.8% from the previous payout. Furthermore, the TTM payout ratio is 94.6% – that’s exceptional. The 5Y growth rate seems low at just 2.24%, but the payout is high enough to appease my concerns. Now, there are concerns about whether or not this company can continue to pay its high dividend given its current level of cash flows. OCF has been steady the last two quarters at $1.44 billion, and it’s worth noting that Q3 2014 showed the highest quarterly OCF in two years at $2.55 billion, which is going to create high expectations come the ER. FCF is unfortunately all over the place, due to their debt reduction/issuance activity, and is currently negative at -$212 million for Q2. TTM FCF is $797 million. Essentially, the company shells out anywhere from $551-$565 million in dividend payments every quarter and has not failed to pay these dividends in a very long time. Thinking that Duke may cut its dividend or not payout is not a current concern, despite less than ideal cash flows. Conclusion We’re a while out from the Q3 earnings report in the first week of November, we have a lot to consider about this company’s financial health and valuation. Current P/E is 18.29 which is above the industry average of 15.04, but I’d argue that this is very marginal, all things considered. Duke, to me, is a company that you place a long position into and let it sit and provide you a modest annual return and a good stream of consistent and growing dividends.