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The PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy ETF: Enduring Principals

The fund is managed by a global leader of fixed income assets. The fund diverges from the tracking index, but reduces the ‘duration risk’ by doing so. PIMCO’s bond management experience may prove to be an asset as the Fed prepares to change policy. A unique feature of the once popular game show, Jeopardy , was that the answer was the question and the question was the answer. So for example, you might been confronted with the answer: “Ben Franklin, Mark Twain, Daniel Defoe, Christopher Bullock and Edward Ward” Your answer, in the form of a question of course, would be, “Who have been given credit for first saying, ‘ Nothing is certain except for death and taxes’ ?” Indeed and invariably, that seems to be the case. Each may be unavoidable in the end, but in the meantime, with careful planning an investor can take a breather from taxes without being in jeopardy with the IRS by including a tax exempt municipal bond fund in a portfolio. Oddly, compared to other types of taxable bond funds, there aren’t that many plain vanilla funds to choose from. The choices are further narrowed by the three choices of Long , Intermediate or Short maturity funds. Pacific Investment Management Company , commonly recognized by its acronym, PIMCO , is a global investment management firm, specializing in fixed income assets, with over $1.47 trillion under its care. It should be noted, though, PIMCO manages its assets independently, but it is wholly owned by Allianz (OTC: OTCQX:ALIZF ) PIMCO offers the actively managed PIMCO Intermediate Municipal Bond Strategy (NYSEARCA: MUNI ) . According to PIMCO, the fund is: . .. Designed to be appropriate for investors seeking tax-exempt income, the fund consists of a diversified portfolio of primarily intermediate duration, high credit quality bonds, which carry interest income that is exempt from federal tax and in some cases state tax… PIMCO makes a point of noting that: … Unlike index funds that typically rely solely on a rating agency for credit analysis, PIMCO applies extensive research on each municipal bond we own in the fund… …to avoid what we feel are municipalities of deteriorating credit quality in our efforts to protect investors’ capital… Having that extra level of analysis should provide the investor with an extra measure of risk mitigation. The fund tracks Barclays 1-15 Year Municipal Bond Index (LM17TR) : …which consists of a broad selection of investment grade general obligation and revenue bonds of maturities ranging from one year to 17 years… The fund was incepted on November 30, 2009 and currently holds approximately $235.5 million in net assets. Its daily trading volume is noted to be 37,881 ETF shares; hence there’s sufficient liquidity available to enter a position. Since inception, the fund has traded at par with its NAV and recently has traded at a discount of -0.13% to NAV. It should be noted that being able to purchase a bond fund at a discount gives the investor an extra advantage. That being noted, the fund’s shares have a slight bias to trade at a discount to NAV over its history, hence it may be worth choosing the moment for the best entry point. The funds current estimated ‘yield to maturity’ is 2.28% and a distribution yield of 2.29%, (distributions are monthly). Management fees are below the ETF industry average at 0.35% which, again, is another advantage in the long run. The 30 day SEC yield, i.e., after fees and expenses is 1.67%. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from Pimco A word or two needs to be said about a few terms. First, according to Investopedia, Average Effective Maturity is a measure of maturity, taking into account the probability that a bond might be called back to the issuer. At this point it’s worth noting the term embedded option . This is a special condition ‘written into’ a security. For example, a bond might have a ‘ call date ‘: a date on which a bond may be redeemed, or ‘called’, before maturity. For the entire portfolio, which may have a mix of callable and non-callable bonds, the Average Effective Maturity is the weighted average of the maturities taking into account those with a call provision. Another important concept is that of Duration . Without going into a lot of the mathematics of finance, it may be generally understood by an example. Consider a $100,000.00, 3.25%, 15 year fixed rate loan starting today . Looking forward, in a little under 13 years into the loan, the borrower will have paid back $100,000.00 in combined principal and interest. In other words the lending bank breaks even at a little under 13 years. Now start again but fast forward ahead 5 years from the beginning. The borrower has made interest and principal payments amounting to $28093.00; ($5989.00 of that is principal). However, the lender considers those previous five years of payments, amounting to $28093.00, as paid and ‘off the table’. There’s still $94011.00 of principal left to pay. Since the original five years of ‘cash flow’ is off the table, the lender recalculates and figures out that breakeven on the future interest and principal payments occurs in just over 8.5 years. If the recalculation is done after every payment is made and off the table, the ‘breakeven’ will continue to gradually decrease to 0 years, (maturity). Just one more detail is needed: if the loan had a floating rate and interest rates declined, it will take longer to reach that breakeven point. Conversely, if rates increased, breakeven will be attained more quickly . That’s essentially Duration. It’s a way to measure how long it would take for full repayment of the original price of a bond, at the current interest rate via future cash flow and specified in years. If interest rates go up, it takes longer; if interest rates go down, it’s quicker. These calculations are of great importance to fund managers since they often open and close positions before maturity . So why should a retail investor care? The U.S. Federal Reserve sets the benchmark when it comes to interest rates. Recently, the Fed has indicated that, most likely, it will increase the benchmark ‘Fed Funds’ rate by the end of the year. The Fed usually moves in 25 basis point (1/4 point) increments. So if an investor had to choose from bond funds of equal quality holdings, the smart move would be to choose the one with the shortest duration as it would be least impacted by rising interest rates. Analysts like to look at these metrics in different ways or even ‘fine tune’ existing metrics. Indeed, this is the case with bonds. For example, Effective Duration takes into account both callable and non-callable bonds and determines the ‘probable duration’ of the entire portfolio as interest rates fluctuate. Now, having a reasonably good idea of what Duration is, the fund’s Effective Duration is currently 5.07 years. (click to enlarge) The fund’s home page Performance and Risk tab includes an interesting ‘ Key rate Durations ‘, summarized below. It’s an at-a-glance way to see how sensitive a fixed maturity is to a 1% change in market interest rates. Data from Pimco It should be noted that the greatest sensitivity occurs in the 5 to 10 year maturity range, which is 55% of the funds maturity composition. The pie charts below demonstrate the fund’s ‘Maturity Allocation’ as well as the ‘Quality Allocation’ of the fund. (click to enlarge) Just over 47% of total holdings are top quality AA- to AAA. Just over 28% are medium quality A- to A+ and almost 10% are lower quality but investment grade, BBB- to BBB+. Lastly ‘NR’ or ‘Not Rated’ means that, according to the summary prospectus , PIMCO has determined the holding is ‘of comparable quality’ with other bond rating agency grades. It’s also worth noting the fund’s maturity distribution compared with the tracking index. The chart demonstrates that the fund diverges from the index composition significantly; however this does result in a lower duration by just over 31.8%: 5.42 years vs 7.95 year. It should be noted that that the fund does weight strongly the 5 to 10 year maturity range. Those are the maturities with the highest sensitivity to interest rate variations and it does so much heavier than does the index. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The fund charts its sector allocation in an interesting way, both in terms of percentage of total market value as well as percent of total duration. (click to enlarge) Data from PIMCO The holdings include a couple of ‘arcane’ instruments. First are the ‘ Pre-Refunded ‘ holdings. According to the MSRB’s glossary of Municipal Securities Terms: … a refunding in which the refunded issue remains outstanding for a period of more than 90 days after the issuance of the refunding issue… …such refunded bonds are secured solely by an escrow funded with the proceeds of the refunding bonds… …The proceeds of the refunding issue are generally invested in Treasury Securities…. … to pay principal and interest… …on the refunded issue… To put is simply, Pre-Refunded or Advanced Refunded occurs when there’s an overlap in the refunding of an existing issue. The ‘existing issue’ must still meet its obligation, and this is ‘covered’ by the refunding issue’s proceeds and held in escrow. This may partly explain the 4.08% of total holdings as being short term U.S. Treasury Notes. Another interesting holding are the ‘Tobacco Municipal Bonds’. These are bonds issued by a state and funded by a future payment or cash flow due as a result of a settlement or successful lawsuit against a tobacco company. It’s worth noting that tobacco bonds comprise about 2.5% of the municipal bond market. For more on Tobacco Bonds the reader is referred to PIMCO, ” Municipal Tobacco Settlement Bonds: Seeking Value in the Ashes “. MUNI is comparable in returns to the two other funds filtered by the Seeking Alpha ETF Hub . The Fed has indicated that its policy shift will be slow and gradual. This will, no doubt, have some impact on Duration , but when the tax advantage is considered and at the same time having the fund actively managed by the industry leader, it should all add up to make this intermediate municipal bond fund worth holding. Annualized Returns 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception 11/30/2009 Fund NAV (after expenses) 1.80% 1.40% 2.73% 3.38% ETF Shares 1.91% 1.43% 2.73% 3.38% Barclay’s Index 2.61% 2.44% 3.49% 3.97% Fund vs Index -0.70% -1.01% -0.76% -0.59% Data from PIMCO

Altria’s Perverse Regulation

Altria and investing in regulated industries. How tobacco regulation protects big tobacco. CrossFit vs. Washington DC. Rangeley Capital’s portfolio managers host a fifteen-minute podcast. If you missed the previous episode, then please check out A 105% Dividend? . We discussed Winthrop Realty (NYSE: FUR ). The end of Winthrop is near, but not before you could get a safe, quick return of your capital with a healthy return. We also talk about the article Sen. Bob Corker Profits on Quick Stock Trades . In this episode we talk about the challenges of investing in companies such as Altria (NYSE: MO ) that compete in highly regulated industries. We also discuss Anti-Licensing Movement Scores a Victory . Crossfit is joining Uber, Airbnb, and the other disruptive entrants that are fighting back against entrenched incumbents and their regulatory henchmen. The podcast is hosted by Andrew Walker and Chris DeMuth Jr, two Rangeley Capital portfolio managers. You can follow us on Twitter (NYSE: TWTR ) ( Andrew and Chris ). You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here or on Soundcloud here .

12 Top Picks From Buffett And Others

Summary Here is what top funds own in the latest quarter. Opportunities remain in these positions. Here are some of the best ideas. Media General (NYSE: MEG ) While the long term is what really matters, Warren Buffett has returned 1,826,163% since 1965 which is a strong start by any measure. If he can keep this up in the second half of his career, he could literally end up with all of the money currently in the world. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A / BRK.B ) owns 3.4 million shares of MEG. It is up over 4% since this position was first disclosed on StW . If you would like to read more about it, you might like Catalysts Drive Media General’s 20% Upside . Additionally, we discussed it in Is Nothing Sacred? Rangeley Podcast #2 . It currently costs under $16 and will probably be sold for over $17 in a deal announced before yearend. Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about. – Warren Buffett It has been a busy quarter for Berkshire. They doubled their position in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX ). Berkshire’s Todd Combs and Ted Weschler added to Axalta (NYSE: AXTA ), Liberty Media ( LMCA / LMCK ), Liberty Global ( LBTYA / LBTYK ), 21st Century Fox (NASDAQ: FOXA ) and Charter (NASDAQ: CHTR ). Folks in Omaha are substantially overlapping with John Malone these days. In terms of stock sales, Berkshire reduced its exposure to Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI ). A number of other positions were the result of corporate events as opposed to active trades. For example, Buffet now owns over 325 million shares of Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ: KHC ) as a result of the successful completion of the merger between Kraft and Heinz. Berkshire has held onto the 59 million shares of AT&T (NYSE: T ) that they received as a result of its acquisition of DirecTV. John Malone, the perpetual new ticker generator, recently created the new Liberty Global Latin American ( LILA / LILAK ) tracking stocks. Berkshire received these as a result of their Liberty Global stake. The Berkshire portfolio is active in terms of ongoing corporate events in the latter half of 2015. They own 10 million shares of Charter after increasing the size by 21%. Charter is wading through the regulatory process of acquiring Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC ). They own 4.2 million shares of Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP ) which Berkshire is in the process of acquiring. There is a $4.02 net arbitrage spread which offers a 6% annual return if they close the deal by next March. No impediments are expected to delay or threaten the deal’s closing. They own 30 million shares of Suncor (NYSE: SU ) which recently launched an unsolicited offer for Canadian Oil ( OTCQX:COSWF ). While Buffett is not a fan of hostile bids, his portfolio companies do not necessarily share his dislike. M&T (NYSE: MTB ) is a 5.3 million share position for Buffett. It is integrating its recently completed acquisition of Hudson City Bancorp. Liberty Global is buying Cable & Wireless ( OTCPK:CBWYY ). Berkshire owns 19 million shares of Liberty Global. Finally, Berkshire has about 11 million shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE ) which is refocusing on its industrial portfolio through a series of major asset sales. What’s next after the PCP deal closes? Another collaboration with 3G on the horizon? We could see another food or beverage deal within the next year that breaks their prior record for scale. ChipMos (NASDAQ: IMOS ) Seth Klarman , one of history’s greatest investors, added 14%% to his position in IMOS, taking it to about 3.8 million shares for his fund, Baupost Group. IMOS is up by over 19% since it was first disclosed on StW . For background reading on this idea, please check out 30% Underpriced? How Is The Market So Wrong About ChipMOS? It is still a compelling long opportunity worth substantially more than it costs. Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator. – Seth Klarman Greenlight RE (NASDAQ: GLRE ) David Einhorn’s annual returns have been about 19% per year. I highly recommend his book, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time , to any investor, especially one interested in short ideas. Greenlight is down over 17% this year. One way to get exposure to a potential recovery would be to buy Greenlight RE . Its book value per share was $23.29 at the beginning of the quarter. When someone doesn’t want you to look at traditional metrics, it’s a good time to look at traditional metrics. – David Einhorn Allergan (NYSE: AGN ) Stephen Mandel, who used to work as a consumer analyst at Julian Robertson’s Tiger, added 13% to his Allergan position. His hedge fund, Lone Pine Capital, owns about 2.6 million shares. AGN is in a deal with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) in which AGN holders will get about $363 per share in PFE equity. Even with a wide spread, the deal is worth between $310-325 per AGN share. Pershing Square Holdings ( OTCPK:PSHZF ) Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square is down about 25% year to date. One way to get exposure to a potential recovery is via a long position in Pershing Square Holdings. Its NAV/share was $19.92 while its price was $19.45 as of November 17. Aercap ( AER ) Lee Ainslie has compounded at around 14% per year for two decades. He added 9% to his Aercap position which now stands at 4.9 million shares in his hedge fund, Maverick Capital. For background reading on AER, I recommend Aercap: An Incredible Bargain Hiding In Plain Sight, 40-50% Upside (For Starters) , winner of a recent Seeking Alpha investing competition . Danaher (NYSE: DHR ) Dan Loeb has annualized at over 20% for over 20 years. In a new position, his fund, Third Point, owns 2.3 million shares of DHR. DHR underwent a complex series of transactions this year. The split into two companies will be finalized by the end of next year. The two key managers, Mitch and Steven Rales, will each serve on both boards. This is crucial as they have proved to be among the very best asset allocators among many corporate insiders. It is up over 13% since it was disclosed in StW earlier this year. For further reading on this idea, I recommend Better Than The Berkshire Hathaway? Danaher’s Value . Our philosophy is to be opportunistic all the way across the capital structure from debt to equity, across industries and different asset classes. – Dan Loeb Altera (NASDAQ: ALTR ) John Paulson was the single greatest exploiter of the price opportunities presented by the housing finance bubble. What is he up to this year? In a new position, his hedge fund, Paulson & Co., recently bought about 3.5 million shares of ALTR. The $1.45 net arbitrage spread currently offers a 7% annual return if the deal closes by next April. It is up over 28% since first discussed on StW . If you want to learn more about this opportunity, then click on 6% Yield From Intel’s Deal With Altera . Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI ) Jeff Ubben is one of the greatest activist investors of all time. His ValueAct Capital owns over 37 million shares of Halliburton (NYSE: HAL ) and 23 million shares of BHI. He supports their merger and could substantially benefit from the 73% annual return from the arbitrage spread if the deal closes by next March. Cigna (NYSE: CI ) Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors has earned an annualized net return of about 11% since inception. His fund owns about a quarter of a million shares of CI. He will benefit from a 42% annual return if CI’s sale to Anthem (NYSE: ANTM ) closes by next August. Time Warner Cable One of Chase Coleman’s forefathers, Peter Stuyvesant built the wall in Wall Street. He has compounded at over 21% since inception. TWC is a new position of Chase’s Tiger Global hedge fund. He newly owns about 580,000 shares. The $17.83 net arbitrage spread offers a 26% annual return if the deal closes by next April. It is up over 35% since we disclosed our position in this equity. You can read more about it here . Humana ( HUM ) After Larry Robbins came out of Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors, he turned Glenview Capital into a spectacular success. With over 6.6 million shares, his largest position is HUM. After adding 1% to this position over the quarter, it is now about 6% of his portfolio. Robbins has probably been the greatest beneficiary of the Affordable Care Act, racking up massive profits on his investments in health insurers. There will be more to come if the Aetna (NYSE: AET ) deal to acquire HUM slips past its antitrust review. There is a 38% annual return if it closes by next August. As he also owns 5.5 million shares of AET, his position in the combined company will still be substantial if and when the deal closes. Briadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM ) Andreas Halvorsen’s Viking Global has returned an average of 13% over the past ten years. One big new position of his is BRCM. He owns almost 24 million shares. He will benefit from a 13% annual return if BRCM’s sale to Avago (NASDAQ: AVGO ) closes by next February. It is up over 13% since we disclosed our position in this equity. You can read about the details here . Solarwinds (NYSE: SWI ) Andrew Spokes’ Farallon Capital is one of the largest and best funds that focuses heavily on risk arbitrage. His fund recently started a new position in SWI. Today, he owns about 2.4 million shares. The arbitrage spread offers an annual return of about 13% if it closes by next March. It returned about 22% since we disclosed our position in this one. If you are interested in learning more, you can get the details in this edition of M&A Daily . Icahn Enterprises (NASDAQ: IEP ) Carl Icahn has defined the role of activist investor since it was called “corporate raider”. I prefer the name “owner”. His Icahn Capital owns 115 million shares of IEP; the last I heard, he is satisfied with management. IEP is 28% of the portfolio, up 2% in the past quarter. IEP is down about 28% since I disclosed it as a short earlier this year. I like Icahn. However, he is on the long, long list of people that I do not want to pay a premium for. There’s a strategy behind everything. Everything fits. Thinking this way taught me to compete in many things, not only takeovers but chess and arbitrage. – Carl Icahn Exits One of the big exits of this past quarter was DirecTV, which was sold to AT&T . This was a top position of many funds including mine. Next Ideas What are the best ideas for 2016? We will disclose our #1 candidate in early December on StW . Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.