Tag Archives: income

Don’t Be Fooled By The Short Squeeze

By Alan Gula, CFA On November 18, 2015, KaloBios Pharmaceuticals Inc. ( OTCPK:KBIOQ ) announced that Martin Shkreli and a consortium of investors had acquired more than 50% of its outstanding shares. The stock, which had closed at $2.07 that day, traded above $10 the day after the announcement. The next day, shares rose above $23 and closed at $18.45. The following Monday, the stock miraculously traded for over $45 per share. In just six trading days, the market cap of KaloBios had risen from under $4 million to over $160 million. It was a blatant example of market inefficiency. But what could cause such an irrational spike? The answer is an acute “short squeeze.” A sharp rally in the price of a stock puts pressure on short sellers, who are betting the stock will fall. They may feel the need (or be forced) to close out their short sales by buying the stock. The buying pressure from this short covering causes the stock to move higher, compelling even more traders to cover their shorts. Over the past month, we’ve seen a bevy of short squeezes as the U.S. stock market has bounced along with the price of crude oil. These squeezes haven’t been as spectacular as the above example, but judging by how heavily shorted some of these stocks are, they’ve been very painful for the short sellers, nonetheless. The following table shows a few of the largest squeezes: The short interest ratio (SIR) is the number of shares sold short divided by the average daily trading volume. The average SIR for S&P 500 constituents is 3.3 times. At 9.5 times, the average SIR for these stocks is much higher – and for good reason. The risk of bankruptcy is very high for the companies on this list. Thus, they all have Standard & Poor’s credit ratings of CCC+ or lower. Two of the companies are already in selective default (SD). Others will eventually join them. Many of the stocks on this list will end up worthless. Risks notwithstanding, the short squeezes have been eye watering. Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK ) shot up 208%. Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ: LINE ) annihilated the shorts with a 398% maximum gain over the past month. In spite of these equity gains, though, many of these companies won’t have fairy tale endings. For example, the 6% bonds due 11/15/2018 for Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU ) have rallied, but they’re still trading around $7 ($100 par). The bond market is saying that there won’t be much recovery for senior unsecured creditors, which means that equity shareholders will be left with approximately zero. The equity shareholders of the companies listed above are deluding themselves if they think the market cap reflects underlying fundamentals. It’s important to recognize that a sharp rally in a stock doesn’t necessarily signal all is well. In most cases, these stocks aren’t rising from the ashes. In fact, many of the companies with the most violent short squeezes will end up filing for bankruptcy, just as KaloBios had to do on December 30, 2015. Safe (and high-yield) investing. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Investors Need To Understand The Risks Of Smart Beta

By Rhea Wessel The low-yield environment has many investors seeking new sources of outperformance. One development has been the growth of so-called smart beta investments, a $400 billion ETF market with a strong flow of funds from both institutions and retail investors. But are such funds really “smart” and do they truly have the potential to boost performance? To answer such questions, CFA Institute Magazine turned to Nick Baturin, CFA , formerly head of portfolio analytics at Bloomberg. He also spoke at the CFA Institute Annual Conference in Frankfurt in 2015. In this interview, Baturin discusses the rise of smart beta, its counterpart “dumb alpha,” and the need for investors to educate themselves about risks in this area. CFA Institute: First of all, what is smart beta? Nick Baturin, CFA : Smart beta investments are funds and ETFs that have a non-traditional weighting scheme that goes beyond cap weighting. There are many different types out there – equal-weighted, inversely risk-weighted, optimized to minimize risk, fundamental-weighted, factor tilts, dividend tilts, and dividend-weighted ETFs. There’s a whole taxonomy out there. The latest entrant in this space is a hybrid product which combines several themes into one. An example is the iShares enhanced index funds. These are active funds and they trade based on some of BlackRock’s research into well-known anomalies – the value anomaly, the quality anomaly, the size anomaly – and they optimize risk as well. They act like an active management quant fund but somewhat simplified. BlackRock does not give you all of their proprietary model insights that they use for their other actively managed quant funds. They give you a dumbed-down version of that. However, they’re also charging lower fees than for their actively managed quant funds. Another thing to note about smart beta indices: They have to rebalance a lot more often than passive buy-and-hold index funds, which are cap-weighted and typically rebalance just once or twice a year. You’ve talked about “dumb alpha.” What is that? There’s a lot of marketing hype going on. When I call smart beta “dumb alpha,” that’s a view that’s somewhat non-traditional. Obviously, it wouldn’t sit well with smart beta fund providers. I call it dumb alpha because traditional quantitative investors have known about these style tilts for several decades. They bet on factors such as value and momentum, quality and size. These have been used in quant investment strategies forever. I call them generic alpha factors rather than proprietary alpha factors. The difference between generic and proprietary is that proprietary cannot be easily replicated. You have some secret sauce, perhaps, at your own firm that only you know about, whereas with a value factor or size or momentum, everyone knows about it. You can implement this in a very straightforward manner. In that sense, it’s dumb alpha because you don’t need any complex implementation engine for it. What I’ve seen with smart beta is partially a marketing effort to rebrand these traditional generic alpha factors as smart beta funds. All they do is give you exposure to these traditional, generic quant factors, but in the ETF wrapper, and they charge a higher fee. So, basically, it’s a rebranding effort in my opinion. Is the higher fee justified? Well, the higher fee can be partially justified by the higher trading costs of these funds. And certain factors do have long-term outperformance records over the market portfolio. But you have to be very judicious. With a smart beta fund, the burden of decision as to what to invest in is no longer on the fund manager. It’s now on the investor. Should smart beta strategies be included in participant retirement plans? Fundamentally weighted funds bet on the value factor, but investors can also get value-factor exposure by investing in the Vanguard Value Fund, which is a cap-weighted fund which also gives you value exposure, but a lot cheaper. You have to be judicious. You cannot expect a retail investor to know the difference between smart beta and stupid beta and to evaluate the cost versus benefit tradeoff. If you call all smart beta ETFs “smart,” that becomes a confusing soup to choose from. You have momentum, you have value, you have quality, you have size; you have fundamental-weighted, risk-weighted. It’s a complicated array of products that is exposing retail investors to a lot more choices. This will take them a long time to learn about. I don’t think they are in a position to really drill down in much detail. Would I include smart beta in participant retirement plans? Possibly, but you have to select low-cost versions implementing well-known ideas that have been demonstrated to work over a long time and in different markets, like a value tilt. That’s a pretty solid factor. That’s one of the best ones out there. Is a fundamentally weighted index a good way to capture that? A fundamental index comes with additional attributes (factor exposures other than value) that are offered as a bundled deal. In that sense, a pure value tilt is probably a better exposure vehicle for retirement plans. If you are a retail investor, you are typically not sophisticated, and you respond to marketing and hype. It’s our job as investment managers to be honest with these investors and really explain performance beyond the hype. They have to know the risks and the rewards of investing in these products, and there are risks. The term smart beta is a great marketing slogan, and it has caught on. What are the risks? You may have a period of massive underperformance of a particular strategy. There’s a lot of academic research that says that actively managed funds collectively underperform passive cap-weighted indices in the long run. Vanguard founder John Bogle thinks that everything that’s not an index fund is a fraud. But does it mean that the market is truly efficient and there are no anomalies? No. There are anomalies. And there are risks – mainly, that any strategy will underperform. Let’s say everybody in the world piles into value strategies. Then value will stop working. The market-cap-weighted index is the only index that can theoretically be held by every investor in the market. You will all get the same exposure. But in the real world, there will always be some winners and some losers. After a lot of dollars flow into these smart beta funds, they will eventually stop working. We’ll have cut off the branch we were sitting on. What’s next in the world of smart beta? I’d say hybrid products that erase the boundary between active management and smart beta are where things are headed. Those are truly multi-factor, risk-aware investment strategies. These haven’t caught on just yet. The largest is just over 100 million in assets. That’s not a lot by the standards of the ETF market. But, nevertheless, these hybrid products that combine several anomalies in a risk-controlled way under one vehicle will become popular. It depends on the performance and the marketing. I think the marketing is a huge aspect of it all. We live in a low-yield environment with investors who are desperate to outperform the traditional indices and asset classes, so I think marketing has a huge role to play in whether or not these hybrid products catch on. What should investors watch out for in smart beta? There are definitely things to watch out for. I’d say don’t start out cold. You’ve got to educate yourself. Beware of risks. Beware of costs. Invest in more robust ideas, like value. Momentum isn’t robust. On that basis, my heart lies with lower-cost solutions that offer you a cheap value tilt. These are traditional cap-weighted value funds. They score highly for me because they are cheap and deliver on that factor tilt. There’s going to be periods of underperformance. At least over the very long term, you stand a chance of outperforming traditional cap-weighted indices. Disclaimer: Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.

Creating A Strategy Index From Long’s Law

Long’s Law states that long-term free cash flow margins (FCF/revenue) in any industry over a multi-decade time frame tend towards the inverse of the number of competitors in that industry. For example, in an industry with three competitors, FCF margins will tend towards 33.33% or 1/3. However, Economic “Laws” should best be termed Economic “Tendencies.” The rule roughly holds across a vast array of industries. In August of 2013, I outlined an illustrative portfolio of companies which ranked highly under the criterion of having few competitors. Here’s why this is important. The robber barons understood the long-term competitive advantage of owning oligopoly businesses. You should too. An interesting characteristic that some of the businesses below share is that they are toll bridge-like businesses. For example, if you want to hedge or to speculate in the futures market, chances are you will be doing so through the futures exchanges. If you want to pay for goods or services using a credit or debit card, chances are you will be using Visa or MasterCard’s payment network. You get the picture. Here is an illustrative portfolio of companies which rank highly under Long’s Law: Major Payment Networks (Network Effect Businesses) Visa (NYSE: V ) MasterCard (NYSE: MA ) PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL ), formerly owned by eBay Major Futures Exchanges (Network Effect Businesses) CME Group ( CME ) Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE ) CBOE Holdings ( CBOE ) Major Online Auction Marketplaces (Network Effect Businesses) eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY ) MercadoLibre ( MELI ) Major Credit Rating Agencies (De Facto Regulators) Moody’s ( MCO ) McGraw-Hill Cos. ( MHFI ) Internet Search (Dominant Online Advertising) Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) Financial Database Firms FactSet ( FDS ) Morningstar ( MORN ) Capital IQ (owned by McGraw-Hill Financial) Thomson Reuters ( TRI ) Index Providers S&P Indices (owned by McGraw-Hill Financial) MSCI ( MSCI ) Morningstar Here’s how this portfolio performs vs. the S&P 500 (please note that EBAY was used in place of PayPal due to its limited trading history since the spinoff). We equally weight the 14 stock portfolio and rebalance annually. (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge The portfolio does well but is highly correlated to the market. Perhaps we can do better. Perhaps decreasing the correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 can increase its returns. We can see that the drawdown profile of this strategy follows that of the broader market. It would be great to get less correlated to broad market drops. (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge What could we do to further increase the strategy’s safety and performance? As I have noted in a variety of ETP-only strategies, the Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF (NYSEARCA: TMF ) (a 3X leveraged long duration government bond ETP) has the potential to act as an imperfect hedge of sorts if equity markets crash. Because the long duration government bond ETP is leveraged 3x, we can dedicate far less capital to the bond portion of a traditional stock/bond mix. The TMF instrument almost acts like a call option on long bonds. Unfortunately, interest rates are artificially low, making the TMF portion of the strategy a very imperfect hedge indeed. However, unlike a risk-parity portfolio, because the leverage is inherent to the TMF instrument, there is no margin leverage in this strategy index. And even if long bonds get decimated due to a hyper-inflation, the TMF portion of the portfolio can only go to zero in any given year in an extreme scenario. How do the companies outlined above perform if we equally weight them at 5% each, then add a 30% allocation in the portfolio to TMF? (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge We can see that the portfolio becomes less correlated to the broader equity market, and also, the Sharpe and Sortino ratios rise sharply. Let’s take a look at the drawdown profile of this strategy. (click to enlarge) Click to enlarge The drawdown profile of the portfolio is far improved! Of course, the TMF hedge is by no means perfect, but what a difference it makes. Going forward, we will examine a variety of strategy indices which combine individual stocks with ETPs, as opposed to our usual practice of just creating ETP-only indices. Consider examining whether the addition of additional asset classes can improve the risk/return profile of your own stock portfolio. Thanks for reading. As always, our cutting-edge strategy indices are only available to subscribers , but I hope that some of the strategy indices presented here will provide inspiration for readers to create their own methods for dealing with an increasingly difficult investment environment. If this post was useful to you, consider giving our service a try . Remember, hope is for people who do not use data. Wise investors plan using evidence-based methods. Thanks for reading. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.