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TECO Energy: What A Difference A Day Makes

Over the past decade or so TECO Energy has shown stagnant growth and average investment results. Recently the company received a bid to be acquired at a much higher share price. This article shows the difference that just a single day can have on an investment. Over the past decade or so, Tampa, FL-based TECO Energy (NYSE: TE ) has been what I would classify as an “average” investment. You have a slow growing business that just sort of plugs along and pays out a large percent of its earnings in the form of dividends. It’s the classic utility model. I’ll show you what I mean. Here’s a look at the company’s history from the end of 2005 through the end of 2014: TE Revenue Growth -1.8% Start Profit Margin 7.0% End Profit Margin 8.3% Earnings Growth 0.1% Yearly Share Count 1.3% EPS Growth -0.6% Start P/E 17 End P/E 22 Share Price Growth 2.0% % Of Divs Collected 43% Start Payout % 76% End Payout % 93% Dividend Growth 1.6% Total Returns 5.6% TECO began the period with a little over $3 billion in revenue and ended with a bit less than $2.6 billion, or a compound growth rate of -1.8% per annum. Granted certain operations have been sold or discontinued, but it remains that the company as a whole was not growing on the top line. Based on the $3 billion in revenues, TECO earned about $211 million – representing a profit margin of about 7%. By 2014 the margin had expanded to 8.3%, resulting in a net profit of $213 million. In other words, despite the revenue decline, the overall company profitability increased ever so slightly. Yet this slight advantage did not remain for shareholders. At the beginning of the period the company started out with roughly 208 million shares outstanding. By the end of the period this number had grown to 235 million. As such, the earnings-per-share growth also was negative – coming in at -0.6% annually. At the end of 2005 shares of TECO were exchanging hands around $17, resulting in a trailing multiple of about 17. By the end of 2014 the share price had climbed to $20.50, indicating a multiple closer to 22. This is why it’s important to allow for a wide range of possibilities. During this same time frame a company like Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP ) was providing 20% EPS growth, yet it saw P/E compression . On the other hand, TECO was providing negative EPS growth yet saw a higher multiple. When you suggest anything is possible, it’s not just a coverall – strange things happen in the investment world. Due to this multiple expansion, shareholders saw the share price increase by about 2% annually. This is nothing to text home about – especially over a decade period – but still something considering the growth headwind. The real story for TECO has been its dividend. The company, like many utilities, has committed to paying out a large portion of earnings in the form of dividends. Although this payout did not grow much, it did allow for a solid and consistent cash flow. Over the period an investor would have collected about $7.50 per share in dividend payments against capital appreciation of just $3.50. In total this equates to total annual returns of about 5.6% per year. Hence the beginning reference to “average.” Actually it’s slightly impressive given the lack of growth, but basically investors received the dividend payment along the way and not much more. Had you owned a couple thousand shares it could have paid for your electric bill, but there were certainly better wealth providers during this time. Both the business and investment performance of the company wasn’t especially inspiring. Yet this changed a bit due to a recent announcement. On September 4, 2015, TECO announced that Canadian-based Emera Inc. ( OTCPK:EMRAF ) would acquire TECO Energy for $27.55 per share, representing a 48% premium to the July 15th price and roughly 31% higher than the previous close. As a result, shares opened the next trading day over 20% higher, moving to about $26 per share. This is the sort of thing that transforms an investment. During the past decade, shares of TECO Energy have provided about 5.4% annualized returns (quite similar to the exercise above, but moving away from the 2005 and 2014 year-ends.) As a result of the buyout offer, shareholders suddenly have a 7% annualized gain. Over the past five years shares have provided 8.5% annualized returns (incidentally, demonstrating what a move from a low to high earnings multiple can do in the face on a stagnant business.) As a result of the higher price on September 8th, this 8.5% annualized return is suddenly a 12.5% annualized gain. Naturally you can’t predict whether or not a buyout offer will come. Yet the above result is instructive. For one, it shows that business performance and investment performance can vary. The typical investor over the last decade or so actually saw their underlying earnings claim decrease. Had you owned the entire business you would have had a slightly greater claim, but due to share issuance common stockholders were diluted. Still, even though the growth rate was negative, overall returns were still positive. This happened for two reasons. First, investors were willing to pay more for less earnings power. Strange things happen in the investment world, so you can never count out multiple expansion (or contraction). Investor sentiment waxes and wanes as the business results tend to be a bit steadier. Yet even if the multiple had remained steady, thus resulting in negative share price appreciation, your overall returns would not have been negative. Due to a solid and slow growing dividend, you were able to accumulate cash payouts along the way. There’s a lot to be said for collecting dividends while you wait for something good to happen. Of course these payouts can’t always “protect” you, but they can still provide a nice return buffer. You won’t shout in joy over 4% returns, but it’s not an awful consolidation prize. Further, you can reinvest these payments to increase your income. In a more abstract sense, this example demonstrates why it can pay to remain patient. Had you purchased shares a few years ago with an earnings multiple below 15 (or higher), the subsequent decline in earnings and rise in share price resulted in a multiple over 20. You could have then elected to sell, but naturally that would have concluded in missing out in a 20%-plus higher price today. Of course you can’t predict this, but the idea is to be ready for the outcome. If that sort of “missing out” would bother you, then perchance there are worst things in the world than collecting a solid dividend payment while a company regains its footing. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

PJM Capacity Auction Impact On Exelon And Other Electric Utilities

Summary PJM’s annual capacity auction was completed in August. This was the first year using the stricter capacity performance standards, which led to an increase in clearing prices. Exelon was the big winner in this year’s auction, with the potential to earn over $1.7B in capacity payments. Fewer new power plants bid into this year’s auction. This could be a positive sign for the long-run outlook of generation owners. For those who follow the electric utility industry, the PJM capacity auction is usually one of the big events on the calendar. (PJM is the regional transmission organization that essentially controls the operation of the electric grid from New Jersey to Chicago.) This year’s auction completed in August was no exception. The capacity auction was created a number of years ago to help support the reliability of the electric grid in a competitive market. The auction takes place three years before the capacity is needed, so this year’s auction was for the 2018/19 planning year. Electric demand fluctuates by time of day and by time of the year. There are some power plants that are needed for those few hours each year when demand is at its highest, but otherwise don’t have to run. These plants would never stay open if they were only paid for the few hours that they operate. The capacity auction essentially pays plants a standby fee to keep them open so that there is plenty of power available on high demand days. This fee is in dollars per megawatt of capacity for each day of the year. The size of the fee is determined in the capacity auction, and varies by location within PJM based on constraints in the electric transmission system. The following map shows the zones tested for transmission constraints in this year’s auction. Exhibit 1 (click to enlarge) Source: Brattle Group The arrows in the above map represent the connection between the parent zones and smaller sub-zones that might also have transmission constraints. For example, the MAAC zone has EMAAC as one of its sub-zones. EMAAC has its own sub-zones, including PSEG, which has its sub zone, PSEG-N. After the 2014 polar vortex caused reliability scares in PJM, changes, called capacity performance (NYSE: CP ), were made to the auction creating stricter eligibility requirements to participate. It also increased penalties for plants that receive capacity payments but are unable to perform when called upon during periods of peak demand. The creation of CP led to an increase in the clearing price for generation assets this year, as the higher cost of meeting the tighter eligibility requirements raised the auction bids for many participants. The clearing price of the RTO region of PJM (basically the areas in PJM without any transmission constraints) increased almost $45/MW-day over last year’s auction. Exhibit 2 Source: PJM Since this is the first year of CP, PJM only required 80% of the generation capacity to meet the new tougher standard. Eventually all capacity will have to meet the CP standard. Capacity in this year’s auction only meeting the old standard still received almost $150/MW-day in the RTO zone, which was close to a $30/MW-day increase in price. As you can see on the following map, only two areas priced separately due to transmission constraints this year, EMAAC and COMED. The prices in these zones were $50-60/MW-day higher than in the RTO. Exhibit 3 (click to enlarge) Source: PJM There are nine major generators that are impacted by the results of the auction. American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP ), AES Corporation (NYSE: AES ), Calpine (NYSE: CPN ), Dynegy (NYSE: DYN ), Exelon (NYSE: EXC ), FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE ), NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG ), Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG ), and Talen Energy (NYSE: TLN ). The following chart shows the capacity each company holds inside PJM, and the zone where it is located. (A free excel file with information on the size, zone, and capacity of each company’s PJM plants, as well has historical auction prices is available here ) Exhibit 4 (click to enlarge) Courtesy Garnet Research, LLC You can see that the big player in PJM is EXC. You can also see that the majority of EXC’s capacity is in the COMED and EMAAC zones, which are the two zones that received higher prices this year because of transmission constraints. One thing to remember, though, is that having capacity in a region doesn’t necessarily mean you will receive payments for all of your capacity. Exelon actually issued a press release after the auction stating that three of its nuclear units (Quad Cities, TMI, and Oyster Creek), totaling 3,230MW of capacity did not clear the auction. The lost revenue from these plants not clearing is about $240M. Exelon already has plans to close Oyster Creek at the end of 2019. TMI and Quad Cities not clearing the latest auction probably means EXC will seriously be reviewing whether or not these plants should also be closed in the next few years. In general companies don’t publish which plants clear the auction because of competitive reasons, so it is difficult to know exactly which units will be receiving this revenue each year. Taking a company’s capacity in each zone and multiplying by the auction clearing price and by 365 days gives you an idea on how much potential revenue it could get from capacity payments. In this year’s auction, if you assume all of EXC’s capacity cleared at the latest prices, they would be receiving almost $2B in revenues. EXC is by far the biggest, but you can see the potential for the major players in the following table: Exhibit 5 (click to enlarge) Courtesy Garnet Research, LLC So without the three nuclear plants we know didn’t clear, Exelon still has the potential to earn over $1.7B of capacity payments. The above table also shows the biggest beneficiaries from the constraints in the electric transmission system. EXC obviously has the biggest benefit on a dollar basis, but PEG gets the biggest percentage benefit. Most of PEG’s plants are in EMAAC or in EMAAC’s sub-zones. Historically this has been a very good place to own power plants, because transmission constraints have impacted at least one sub-zone of EMAAC in all but one of the past capacity auctions. Exhibit 6 (click to enlarge) Courtesy Garnet Research, LLC So one thing to keep in mind when looking at PEG’s historical earnings is that they have been a big beneficiary of these transmission constraints. These constraints have been there for a long time, and with the difficulty in building new generation and transmission capacity, it is likely PEG will continue to be a beneficiary well into the future. This is actually the first time that COMED has ever broken out separately in the auction, which was partly driven by some power plant retirements. It remains to be seen if this year’s breakout was a one-time event, or the start of a trend. The ATSI zone, where the majority of FE’s assets are located, actually set an auction record with a $357/MW-day clearing price for 2015/16. But this year’s 2018/19 auction had ATSI just receiving the RTO price. So just because a zone received premium prices in an auction, it doesn’t mean this will continue for a long time. While EXC has the most potential revenue from the auction, on a percentage basis the impact to the bottom line is significantly greater for independent power producers Dynegy, NRG, and Talen. If you assume a $20 change in the auction clearing price across all zones, that all of each company’s capacity clears the auction, and a 40% tax rate on the incremental revenue, the impact is over 35% of NRG’s 2016 Street earnings estimate. The IPPs tend to trade more on EBITDA than EPS, and Talen Energy is actually the most sensitive on that metric. You can see the impact by company in the table below: Exhibit 7 (click to enlarge) Courtesy Garnet Research, LLC AEP, EXC, FE, and PEG all have sizable regulated wires businesses as part of their companies, which leads to the auction’s smaller bottom line impact for these names. While these names might not get as big a boost from the auction increase, their regulated business helps protect them when power markets suffer any downturns. Besides the increase in prices, this year’s auction may have brought additional positive news for competitive electric generators. Over the past few years record numbers of bidders have proposed adding new capacity to PJM. Last year almost 6,000 megawatts of new capacity cleared the auction, but this year less than 3,500MW was even offered. Exhibit 8 (click to enlarge) Courtesy Garnet Research, LLC This could be a sign that the economics of building a new power plant are becoming less attractive. The decrease in natural gas prices over the past few years has knocked down power prices and has been a big reason for the building binge, with generators trying to take advantage of a cheaper fuel source. If this buildout slows there would be fewer new power plants to compete with the current set of plants and would be supportive to companies that currently own capacity. This would be a positive for all generation in PJM, and could mean increased stability for power prices in the region. It also gives hope that the higher level of this year’s capacity auction might stick around for a while. Conclusion If the latest auction is a sign for a turnaround in the mid-Atlantic electricity markets, investors would benefit most by obtaining shares in DYN, NRG, or TLN. If investors want exposure to these markets, but with more regulatory assets to give some downside protection, then Exelon is probably the preferred name. FE and PEG are also similar to EXC, but they lack the added protection of Exelon’s geographic diversity. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Why To Stay The Course In This New Age Of Volatility

Stocks tumbled again last week, as investors digested further evidence of slowing growth in China and numerous, somewhat conflicting, statements from various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Investors today find themselves in a bind of sorts, caught between two somewhat contradictory risks: an emerging market-induced slowdown in the global economy and the prospect of an upcoming interest rate hike by the Fed. So, it’s understandable that many are tempted to head for the doors and abandon stocks and other risky assets. But rather than exit the markets, investors should consider staying the course and seek potential opportunities along the way as we enter the Fall season, while recognizing that more volatility could be ahead. As I write in my new commentary, ” Time to Take Stock – and Advantage of Pockets of Value ,” at BlackRock, we still favor a portfolio tilted toward equities, select credit, tax-exempt bonds and inflation protection through Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ( OTC:TIPS ) rather than physical commodities. In addition, we view the recent sell-off as an opportunity to take advantage of some pockets of value that have emerged , as well as assets that may be well positioned for today’s “Fed hike, but still low-growth environment.” Here’s a look at some of these market segments: Market Segments to Consider 1. Stocks in International Developed Markets, Particularly in Europe European stocks remain attractively priced and the eurozone economy is improving, as demonstrated by data accessible via Bloomberg. Last week, such data revealed that euro area unemployment fell to the lowest level in three years. In addition, given stubbornly low inflation and investor concerns over global growth, there’s also the prospect for an extension of Europe’s current quantitative easing program, as many in the media speculated last week. 2. Large-Cap, Cyclical Stocks in the U.S. In the U.S., I believe large-cap, cyclical-oriented companies look to be in a good position to withstand the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle. The U.S. economic outlook is less than ideal, but U.S. economic data in recent weeks still suggest a decent second half to the year . 3. Credit Within Fixed Income Despite recent equity market volatility, high yield has stabilized over the past week and yields remain attractive, according to data accessible via Bloomberg. Investment-grade credit is also looking cheap, the data show, although investors may want to hold off until later this Fall, given pending supply. 4. Tax-Exempt Bonds Finally, tax-exempt bonds are offering compelling yields relative to taxable instruments of the same maturity, based on my analysis of the Bloomberg data. Despite the recent rise in volatility, municipals have held up relatively well. To be sure, there are areas of the market that I remain cautious of, including U.S. Treasuries and commodities. On the former, with inflation expectations still near recent lows, investors may want to get duration through TIPS rather than through traditional Treasuries. Commodities, meanwhile, have struggled all year and should continue to be pressured by sluggish growth, oversupply and the potential for a Fed-induced strengthening of the dollar. Investors also should prepare for more bumps in the road. Though the recent correction has returned some value to the markets , I expect volatility to remain elevated until either global growth stabilizes and/or investors get some clarity from the Fed. This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.