Tag Archives: ideas

Emerging Markets Back On Track: 5 Outperforming ETFs

Emerging markets, which were the worst hit by slowing economic growth, China turmoil and the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S., seem to have been rebounding in recent weeks. This is especially true as the two most popular ETFs – the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) – climbed over 5% in the past five days against gains of 3.4% for the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (NASDAQ: ACWI ) and 3% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) , suggesting that the worst might be over. Impressive gains came on the back of stabilization in commodity prices, hopes of additional stimulus from central banks from Asia to Europe, and China’s latest step to arrest the slowdown that led to some gains in emerging market currencies. Additionally, investors’ lack of hope for a rate hike anytime soon fueled the rally in the stocks. Further, data from the Institute of International Finance, which showed that capital flows into emerging markets turned flat in February after seven straight months of outflows, injected fresh optimism into the emerging markets. Notably, net emerging market outflows decreased to $200 million last month, with Latin America pulling in the maximum capital of $2.7 billion, followed by inflows of $1.7 billion in Africa and the Middle East, $1.5 billion in Europe and $300 million in Asia. Apart from positive developments, low valuations made these stocks tempting. As a result, several emerging market ETFs performed remarkably well over the past five days. Of those, we have highlighted the ones that emerged as the true winners of this short-covering rally. PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PXH ) – Up 6.4% This ETF follows the FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Index and offers exposure to the largest emerging market stocks based on four fundamental measures – book value, cash flow, sales and dividends. Holding 336 securities in its basket, the fund allocates no more than 3.4% in a single security. Financials (31%) and energy (22.6%) take the top two spots. In terms of country holdings, about one-fourth of the portfolio goes to Chinese firms while Taiwan, Brazil, and Russia round off the next three spots with a double-digit exposure each. The fund has amassed $282.1 million in its asset base, and trades in a good volume of around 265,000 shares a day. It charges 49 bps in annual fees from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. iShares MSCI BRIC ETF (NYSEARCA: BKF ) – Up 5.7% This fund targets the four BRIC countries with highest exposure of 57.1% in China, 19.6% in India, 13.7% in Brazil and the rest in Russia. It tracks the MSCI BRIC Index and holds 308 stocks in its portfolio. However, it is skewed towards the top firm – Tencent Holdings ( OTCPK:TCEHY ) – at 6.82%. Other firms hold no more than 4.84% of assets. In terms of sector exposure, financials dominates the fund return with 30% of the portfolio, followed by information technology (18.4%) and energy (12.4%). The fund has accumulated $154.9 million in AUM and trades at a lower volume of 21,000 shares per day on average. It charges 72 bps in expense ratio and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. EGShares Emerging Market Consumer ETF (NYSEARCA: ECON ) – Up 5.5% This ETF targets the consumer sector of the emerging markets by tracking the Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30 Index. It holds 30 stocks in its basket with heavy concentration on the top firm – Naspers ( OTCPK:NPSNY ) – at 10.3%. The other firms hold less than 5.7% share. From a country look, South Africa occupies the top position with one-fourth of the portfolio while China and Mexico round off the top three with over 16% share. The fund has amassed $549.6 million in its asset base and sees solid average trading volume of more than 352,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in at 0.83%. Schwab Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHE ) – Up 5.5% This fund tracks the FTSE Emerging Index, holding 776 stocks in its basket. None of the securities accounts for more than 4% of total assets. The product is slightly tilted towards financials at 25%, closely followed by technology (14%) and energy (8%). Here again, China takes the top spot at 26.5% while Taiwan and India receive a double-digit allocation each. SCHE is one of the popular and liquid options in the emerging market space with AUM of $1.5 billion and average daily volume of 848,000 shares. It charges 14 bps in fees per year from investors and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook. First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX ETF (NYSEARCA: FEMS ) – Up 5.5% This fund follows the NASDAQ AlphaDEX Emerging Markets Small Cap Index and targets the small cap segment of the emerging market space. Holding 206 securities, the fund is well spread out across each component as each security holds less than 1.5% share. Taiwanese firms take the top spot at nearly 24.2%, closely followed by China (18.2%) and Brazil (12.4%). From a sector look, about one-fifth of the portfolio is allocated to information technology while financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary round off the next three spots with a double-digit allocation each. The product is often overlooked by investors, as depicted by AUM of $36.3 million and average daily volume of roughly 22,000 shares. The expense ratio comes in higher at 0.80%. Original Post

Right Sizing Your Trading

Editor’s note: Article originally published February 26, 2016. I can’t tell you how many times I have been woken up in the middle of the night by an investor who was sleepless over a position that was going the wrong way. Gold was down $50, the euro was spiking two cents, or the stock market was enduring one of its periodic heart attacks. Of course, my answer is always the same. Cut your position in half. If your position is so large that it won’t let you sleep at night on the bad days, then you have bitten off more than you can chew. If you still can’t sleep, then cut it in half again. Which brings me to an endlessly recurring question I get when making my rounds calling readers. What is the right size for a single position? How much money should they be pouring into my Trade Alerts ? Spoiler alert! The answer is different for everyone. For example, I will not hesitate to pour my entire net worth into a single option position. The only thing that holds me back is the exchange contract limits. But that’s just me. I have been trading this market for nearly half a century. I have probably done more research than you ever will (I basically do nothing but research all day, even when I’m backpacking, by audio book). And I have been taking risks for my entire life, the financial and the other kind, quite successfully so, I might say. So my taking a risk is not the same as your taking a risk. Taking risks is like drinking a fine Kentucky sipping Bourbon. The more you drink, the more you have to imbibe to get a good buzz. Eventually, you have to quit and start the cycle all over again. Otherwise, you become an alcoholic. So you can understand why it is best to start out small when taking on your first positions. Imagine if the first time you went out to drink with your college dorm roommates and you finished off an entire bottle of Ripple or Thunderbird ? The results would be disastrous and nauseous, as they were for me. So I’ll take you through the drill that I always used to run beginning traders at Morgan Stanley’s institutional equity trading desk. You may be new to investing, new to trading, and find all of this money stuff scary. Or you may be wary, entrusting your hard earned money to advice from a newsletter you found on the Internet ! What if my wife finds out I’m doing this with our money? Yikes! That is totally understandable, given that 99% of the newsletters out there are all fake, written by fresh faced kids just out of college with degrees in Creative Writing, but without a scintilla of experience in the financial markets. And I know most of the 1% who are real. I constantly hear of new subscribers who are now on their tenth $4,000 a year subscription, and this is the first one they have actually made money with. So it is totally understandable that you proceed with caution. I always tell new readers to start out paper trading. Virtually all online brokers now have these wonderful paper trading facilities where you can practice the art with pretend money. Don’t know how to use it? They also offer endless hours of free tutorials on how to use their platform. These are great. After all, they want to get you into the market, trading, and paying commission as soon as possible. You can put up any conceivable strategy and they will elegantly chart out the potential profit and loss. Whenever you hit the wrong button and your money all goes “poof” and disappears, you just hit the reset button and start all over again. No harm, no foul. After you have run up a string of two or three consecutive winners, it’s now time to try the real thing. But start with only one single options contract or a few shares of stock or an ETF. If you completely blow up, you will only be out a few hundred dollars. Again, it’s not the end of the world. Let’s say you hit a few singles with the onesies. It’s now time to ramp up. Trade 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 50, or 100 contracts. Pretty soon, you’ll be one of the BSDs of the marketplace. Then, you’ll notice that your broker starts following your trades since you always seem to be right. That is the story of my life. This doesn’t mean that you will enjoy trading nirvana for the rest of your life. You could hit a bad patch, get stopped out of several positions in a row and lose money. Or you could get bitten by a black swan (it hurts). Those of you who have been following me for eight years have seen this happen to me several times and now know what to expect. I shrink the size, reduce the frequency, and stay small until my mojo comes back. And my mojo always comes back. You can shrink back to trading one contract or quit trading altogether. Use the free time to analyze your mistakes, rethink your assumptions, and figure out where you went wrong. Was I complacent? Was I greedy? Did hubris strike again? Having a 100% cash position can suddenly lift the fog of war and be a refreshingly clarifying experience. We all get complacent and greedy. To err is human. Then, reenter the fray once you feel comfortable again. Start out with a soft pitch. Over time, this will become second nature. You will know automatically when to increase and decrease your size. And you won’t have to wake me in the middle of the night. Good luck and good trading. Disclosure: No positions

What To Expect When You’re Rebalancing

Rebalancing client portfolios requires a delicate balance. It can provide risk control, but rebalancing too often could incur needless costs. This research paper evaluates the benefits and challenges of rebalancing and offers rebalancing strategies and best practices. Use this paper to: Explore the benefits of rebalancing and the potential challenges of discussing rebalancing with clients. Evaluate the basics of three common rebalancing strategies: time-only, threshold-only, and time-and-threshold. Discover techniques for implementing a rebalancing strategy. What to expect when you’re rebalancing