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U.S. Fund Flows: Equity Funds Get Back In The Game

By Patrick Keon Thomson Reuters Lipper’s fund macro-groups (including both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]) took in over $13.2 billion of net new money during the fund-flows week ended Wednesday, March 9. All four of the fund macro-groups experienced positive net flows for the week; taxable bond funds were at the head of the table with net inflows of $5.8 billion, followed by equity funds (+$4.6 billion), money market funds (+$2.4 billion), and municipal bond funds (+$518 million). The positive flows into equity funds reversed a nine-week trend of investors pulling money out of the group. The equity markets continued their comeback during the week. After losing over 11.4% during the first six weeks of the year the S&P 500 Index recorded its fourth straight week of positive returns. The index gained back over 7.2% during this four-week timeframe, including this past week’s 0.1% appreciation. The market took strength during the week from a rally in oil prices. U.S. crude hit a three-month high ($38.51) during the week and experienced increases in seven of the last eight trading sessions. An increased demand for gas overpowered the record-high crude oil stockpiles to drive the price of oil higher. Another positive for the market was a strong jobs report as nonfarm payrolls grew by 242,000 jobs. The jobs report reinforced the belief that a recession was not in the cards for the near term and also opened the door to the possibility of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2016. The majority of the net inflows for taxable bond funds belonged to mutual funds (+$3.4 billion), while ETFs contributed $2.4 billion to the total. On the mutual fund side the largest net inflows belonged to funds in Lipper’s High Yield Funds classification (+$1.6 billion), while investment-grade debt categories Lipper Core Plus Bond Funds and Lipper Core Bond Funds took in $735 million and $657 million of net new money, respectively. The two largest individual net inflows for ETFs belonged to the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (NYSEARCA: AGG ) (+$687 million) and the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Market Bond (NYSEARCA: EMB ) (+$528 million). ETFs (+$4.2 billion) accounted for the majority of the net inflows for equity funds for the week, while mutual funds pitched in $400 million of net new money. The largest net inflows among individual ETFs belonged to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA: EEM ) (+$853 million) and the iShares Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA: IWM ) (+$535 million), while for mutual funds nondomestic equity funds had positive flows of $416 million and domestic equity funds suffered slight net outflows of $16 million. The week’s net inflows for municipal bond mutual funds (+$450 million) were the twenty-third consecutive weekly gains for the group. Funds in the Intermediate Muni Debt Funds (+$166 million) and General Muni Debt Funds (+$117 million) categories posted the largest net inflows for the week. The net inflows into money market funds (+$2.4 billion) marked the fourth consecutive week in which the group experienced positive flows. The group grew its coffers by over $13.3 billion during this four-week run. The largest contributors to this past week’s gains were Institutional U.S. Money Market Funds (+$7.5 billion) and Institutional U.S. Government Money Market Funds (+$2.8 billion), while Institutional U.S. Treasury Money Market Funds had net outflows of over $4.7 billion.

Don’t Be Fooled By The Short Squeeze

By Alan Gula, CFA On November 18, 2015, KaloBios Pharmaceuticals Inc. ( OTCPK:KBIOQ ) announced that Martin Shkreli and a consortium of investors had acquired more than 50% of its outstanding shares. The stock, which had closed at $2.07 that day, traded above $10 the day after the announcement. The next day, shares rose above $23 and closed at $18.45. The following Monday, the stock miraculously traded for over $45 per share. In just six trading days, the market cap of KaloBios had risen from under $4 million to over $160 million. It was a blatant example of market inefficiency. But what could cause such an irrational spike? The answer is an acute “short squeeze.” A sharp rally in the price of a stock puts pressure on short sellers, who are betting the stock will fall. They may feel the need (or be forced) to close out their short sales by buying the stock. The buying pressure from this short covering causes the stock to move higher, compelling even more traders to cover their shorts. Over the past month, we’ve seen a bevy of short squeezes as the U.S. stock market has bounced along with the price of crude oil. These squeezes haven’t been as spectacular as the above example, but judging by how heavily shorted some of these stocks are, they’ve been very painful for the short sellers, nonetheless. The following table shows a few of the largest squeezes: The short interest ratio (SIR) is the number of shares sold short divided by the average daily trading volume. The average SIR for S&P 500 constituents is 3.3 times. At 9.5 times, the average SIR for these stocks is much higher – and for good reason. The risk of bankruptcy is very high for the companies on this list. Thus, they all have Standard & Poor’s credit ratings of CCC+ or lower. Two of the companies are already in selective default (SD). Others will eventually join them. Many of the stocks on this list will end up worthless. Risks notwithstanding, the short squeezes have been eye watering. Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK ) shot up 208%. Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ: LINE ) annihilated the shorts with a 398% maximum gain over the past month. In spite of these equity gains, though, many of these companies won’t have fairy tale endings. For example, the 6% bonds due 11/15/2018 for Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU ) have rallied, but they’re still trading around $7 ($100 par). The bond market is saying that there won’t be much recovery for senior unsecured creditors, which means that equity shareholders will be left with approximately zero. The equity shareholders of the companies listed above are deluding themselves if they think the market cap reflects underlying fundamentals. It’s important to recognize that a sharp rally in a stock doesn’t necessarily signal all is well. In most cases, these stocks aren’t rising from the ashes. In fact, many of the companies with the most violent short squeezes will end up filing for bankruptcy, just as KaloBios had to do on December 30, 2015. Safe (and high-yield) investing. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Chickens And Eggs

Are you a chicken farmer, or an egg farmer? Chicken farmers raise chickens for their meat. Egg farmers raise chickens for what they lay. Investors who plan to sell their stocks to pay for college or to buy a second home are chicken farmers. Investors who hope to use the income from their investments are egg farmers. The financial press doesn’t understand egg farmers. Every day they report market prices and how they’ve changed. But they almost never report on dividends. This bias sometimes causes income-oriented egg-farmer investors to forget who they are and believe that they are chicken farmers. If they get confused, they may have a hard time reaching their goals. Prices are volatile. If you’re a chicken farmer, when you buy, and especially, when you sell, is extremely important. A chicken farmer needs to watch the market like a hawk. But if you’re an egg farmer, the most striking aspect of dividend payments is how boring they are. They just don’t jump around very much. Both kinds of portfolios need oversight, but managing a dividend stream is different. Risk doesn’t come from market swings, but from factors that endanger a company’s ability to earn profits and pay investors. Egg farmers like bear markets, especially bear markets that don’t threaten corporate revenues. When the market falls, investors can adjust their portfolios without taking gains and paying taxes. By contrast, chicken farmers hate it when prices fall. But chicken farmers love mergers and acquisitions. The buyer almost always has to pay a premium. But for egg farmers, takeovers just complicate things. Acquirers – especially serial acquirers – usually aren’t as generous with their dividends. Both approaches are valid, but they meet fundamentally different needs. So you never have to ask which comes first.