Tag Archives: ideas

Want To Stay Away From Puerto Rico? Bet On These Muni ETFs

The present rocky investing backdrop has made muni bond ETFs winners along with Treasury bonds. Most of the muni bond ETFs are in the green in the year-to-date frame, and many have hit a 52-week high in the last few days. But do these deserve such love given Puerto Rico’s debt crisis? It is widespread news in the muni bonds investing world that Puerto Rico – a big issuer of muni bonds – runs a high risk of default. In early May, Puerto Rico defaulted on $367 million in debt . Buried under recession for years, the island now bears a huge debt load of $72 billion and requires restructuring . A year ago, Charles Schwab’s data revealed that Puerto Rico’s debt obligation reached as high as 95% of its economic output. This was surprisingly higher than 2.4% of the median debt load for the 50 U.S. states. Needless to say, investing in Puerto Rico muni bonds or ETFs that are heavy on these bonds require a strong risk appetite. This does not mean that investors should shy away from entire array of muni bond ETFs. After all, munis are safer bets than corporate bonds and yield better than Treasuries. Notably, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has slid 48 bps to 1.76%, and the yield on the long-term 30-year bonds has seen a 39 bps plunge to 2.59% this year (as of May 17, 2016). Usually, the interest income from munis is free from federal tax and occasionally even state taxes, making them particularly intriguing to investors falling in the high tax cohort looking to cut their tax burden. With the Fed still having a patient attitude on the rate hike issue this year, the higher yield nature of the munis should quench the thirst for current income. So, risk-averse investors can definitely play muni bond ETFs that are devoid of Puerto Rico exposure. Below, we highlight a few such options. Notably, all the below mentioned ETFs hit a 52-week high on May 17, 2016. iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: MUB ) MUB has a trailing 12-month yield of 2.33%. The product provides access to more than 3000 municipal bonds with higher credit quality. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook. SPDR Nuveen Barclays Municipal Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TFI ) The $1.90 billion ETF holds 882 bonds in its portfolio. The fund charges 23 bps in fees and yields 1.85% annually (as of May 17, 2016). Moreover, this fund houses higher investment-grade bonds. TFI has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook. VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Long Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA: MLN ) Devoid of any meaningful exposure to Puerto Rico, the top priorities of this fund are California (18.8%) and New York (13%). It yields 3.16% annually (as of May 17, 2016). More than half of the portfolio is high-quality in nature. MLN has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook. VanEck Vectors AMT-Free Intermediate Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ITM ) The fund replicates the performance of the medium-duration bonds. New York (16.4%), California (15.5%) and Texas (10.3%) have a double-digit exposure in the fund. ITM yields 2.22% annually (as of May 17, 2016). Investment-grade bonds make up a major share of the fund. It has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook. Original Post

Day-Of-Month Effect On A Bond/Equity Portfolio

In this post we will: Take a look at a simple, momentum based, monthly rebalanced Equity/Bond portfolio. Search for what has been the optimal dates in the month to rebalance such a portfolio. Each month we allocate to two ETFs: SPY and TLT . If SPY has outperformed TLT we rebalance to 60% SPY – 40% TLT. If TLT has outperformed SPY we rebalance to 20% SPY – 80% TLT. For the first run we will re-balance on the first of the month and close at the last day of the month. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Now we will try different combinations of entry and exit days. We will try to purchase x days before or after the month and instead of exiting at the end of the month we will exit after y days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com The top chart is optimized for Net Profit while the second one for annual return/max drawdown. They are similar in this case, but we will use the second one. According to the chart the best combinations have been: Buy 3-7 days after the month and hold for around 10-18 days. The BuyDayRefToMonth variable refers to when we buy relative to the turn of the month. For example -5 means we buy five days after the turn of the month (i.e., the 6th trading day). +5 means we buy 5 days before the month ends. The BarsnStop variable refers to how many days later we sell the positions. Looking at the charts more closely we see that buying after (not before) the 1st of the month gives consistently better results when set between 2 and 7 days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com How many days we hold the investment is less obvious and seems to work across the given range: Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Let’s run this again but now only for 2012-May 2016: Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Similar results. The only difference is that the holding times are shorter. Let’s now input the optimized numbers and run the backtest. Obviously we will get something that looks good since it has been fit to the data. We buy 6 days after the month and hold 10 trading days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Conclusion: There are many variables that affect how we run a dynamic Equity/Bond portfolio. We optimized only two of them, namely when to rebalance relative to the turn of the month and how many days to hold the investment. In terms of entry it was better to wait 3-6 days after the month changes to enter the trade. When it comes to this bond/equity portfolio, rebalancing late is better. Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Commercial Real Estate May Help Provide A Smoother Ride On The Road To Your Investment Goals

By Jennifer Perkins, Portfolio Manager, Principal Real Estate Investors Much hasn’t changed since the start of the year! Financial markets have recovered somewhat, but are still volatile due to geopolitical concerns, and declining oil and commodity prices have also impacted stock prices and economic growth. Meanwhile, the chase for yield in a low interest environment still continues in fixed-income markets. With an eye on the road ahead, investors are hoping for a smoother and less stressful ride to meet their investment goals. The vehicle that could get them there is commercial real estate! This is the second in a series of four blog posts highlighting some compelling reasons why we believe many investors should include private – also referred to as direct-owned – commercial real estate in their investment portfolios. While these reasons are not new, market volatility, changing market dynamics, and the potential of lower long-term return expectations raise an opportunity to reiterate the case for considering the asset class for inclusion into your portfolio. Compelling reasons to include private commercial real estate: Adds portfolio diversification. May aid in dampening volatility, potentially increasing portfolio total risk-adjusted return. A source of potential income. A possible defense against unexpected inflation. Just to recap, my last blog post discussed why private commercial real estate hasn’t historically conformed to similar whipsaw behavior the equity market was experiencing at the start of 2016, potentially allowing for private commercial real estate to add true diversification to an investment portfolio. This blog post expands upon Reason 2: Private commercial real estate may aid in dampening volatility and increases the potential for improving total portfolio returns adjusted for risk. As an investor in private commercial real estate, you are buying units of ownership of office buildings, industrial buildings, apartment buildings, retail centers, and even hotels. The buildings comprising a larger portfolio are acquired through private transactions between a willing buyer and seller, specific to individual properties. Investing in tangible properties influenced by space market fundamentals (meaning tenant demand and available supply) versus investor sentiment likely helps to dampen volatility. Unlike Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), private commercial real estate is not influenced by fractional ownership trading, which occurs in public markets on a public exchange. Values of private commercial real estate are also supported by in-place contractual leases, typically having meaningful duration, that help drive a steady and fairly predictable stream of income for investors of core, occupied commercial real estate. Investor return requirements on this current income, as well as total holding period returns, are driven by spreads over risk-free rates (Treasurys). Such tenant demand, available supply, contractual lease terms, and investor return requirements don’t dramatically change each and every day, thereby helping to create the potential for a return pattern with lower volatility or variability over an investment period. Over the past 10 years, the ride or return pattern experienced when investing in stocks, bonds, and private commercial real estate has been notably different (see Exhibit A). The return pattern for commercial real estate has been far smoother compared to stocks and bonds. By including an allocation to commercial real estate in an investment portfolio, the ride over the investment period could be smoother, with less turbulence. Click to enlarge Indexed to 100 as of 31st March, 2016; Source: 500 Data (Bloomberg), Investment Grade Corps (Barclays), CRE Private Equity (NFI-ODCE EW); It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. A smoother expected ride also creates the potential for increased total portfolio returns when adjusted for risk. Private commercial real estate could offer a strong income (current) return (historically 70-80% of total return) as well as the potential for appreciation (or depreciation). Exhibit B shows the effects of increased exposure to private commercial real estate has produced a slight increase to total portfolio returns, but most notably, lowered the risk, or volatility, of those returns over the 10-year time period. Therefore, the inclusion of private commercial real estate within an investment portfolio has the potential to increase total portfolio return per unit of risk. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Source: S&P 500 Data (Bloomberg), Investment Grade Corps (Barclays), CRE Private Equity (NFI-ODCE EW) In my next blog post, I will discuss Reason 3: Private Commercial Real Estate is a potential source of durable income ; another compelling reason to consider including commercial real estate as part of an investment portfolio. Stay tuned and enjoy the ride! — 1 Percentage of risk shown is the annualized standard deviation of index returns and is a measure of return volatility. 2 Annualized holding period total returns divided by standard deviation of returns over equivalent period. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past index performance is not indicative of future return.