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Sector Investing: Why It Matters

This was originally published on December 29, 2015 Within the S&P 500, there are 10 sectors that comprise the key benchmark, and it remains my preferred way of dissecting the market for clients, and giving clients an orderly structure or framework to think about the giant morass that is the capital markets. The primary tool for analyzing sectors for clients remains the excellent sector earnings work done by Thomson Reuters and FactSet, as well as Howard Silverblatt of Standard & Poor’s, and Estimize (although Estimize has a narrower focus than the other firms) which is shared every week on this blog for readers. (Sam Stovall of Standard & Poor’s wrote a book on sector investing that was published in 1996. I just found the book on Amazon and bought it for some holiday reading this weekend.) Why worry about sectors? Well, give this a little thought: The bull market in the S&P 500 that ran from August 1982 to March of 2000 was dominated by two sectors: Technology and Financials. A lot of the old market pundits and the so-called gurus from the 1990s used to say that “The Financials are the market generals” and there was real truth to this. The Financials were the S&P 500’s primary market leader in the 1980s and 1990s. The S&P 500’s decade-long bear market from 2000 through 2009, the decade with the lowest average return for the S&P 500 since the 1930s, was a result of brutal bear markets in two sectors (guess which sectors): yes, Financials and Technology. Technology came first, with the Nasdaq correcting 80% from March 2000 through October 2002, and then the mother-of-all sector corrections with Financial stocks correcting (looking at the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLF )) from $38 to the $6 area from mid-2007, though late 2008, early 2009. Technology as a percentage of the S&P 500’s total market cap hit a peak of 33% in the first quarter of 2000 (really unbelievable when you think about it) and Financials hit their peak in mid-2007. I thought that Financials had gotten close to 30% as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market cap, but from looking at historical data, maybe Financials’ peak total of the S&P 500 was closer to 25% rather than 30%. The reason the Energy bear market hasn’t really impacted the S&P 500 like the Technology and the Financials’ collapse is that when crude oil started to fall from $110 to today’s $35-$37 per barrel, Energy as a percentage of the market cap of the S&P 500 was just 10%. It is now roughly 6.5% today. As the above implies, “Size (in terms of market cap) Matters”. Three bear markets: Technology, Financial and Energy – all sector-driven. Here is our latest spreadsheet where we updated sector weightings ( FC – marketcapvsearningswt ). As readers can see from this spreadsheet, Technology and Financials remain the two largest sectors within the S&P 500 at 37% of the S&P 500, and since they had their absolutely crushing bear markets in the last decade, what are the odds (in your opinion) that Technology repeats 2000-2002 or Financials’ 2007-2009? 20% corrections can happen at any time for a variety of reasons, but would a reader think that Financials and Technology could correct 30% or 40%? Here are the sector weightings for the S&P 500 as of late December 2015 (courtesy of Bespoke, rounded to the nearest 1%): Technology: 21% Financials: 16% Health Care: 15% Consumer Discretionary: 13% Industrials: 10% Consumer Staples: 10% Energy: 6%-7% Utilities, Materials, Telecom: 3% each The top 5 sectors of the S&P 500 are 75% of the market cap of the S&P 500. The top sectors which we’ve discussed at length are 37%. Consumer Discretionary’s 10% return year to date is heavily influenced by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) since the stock is a member of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bespoke has noted that without Amazon’s 140% return year to date, Consumer Discretionary would be up just 2%-3% in 2015. Conclusions about 2016: Given the above, and the Technology and Financials’ weights, I just don’t think there is a sustained bear market in our future. Technology and Financials remain the largest sector overweights for clients coming into 2016. I’m leery of Health Care in a Presidential election year. I do like Industrials in 2016 IF the dollar can remain right where it is, or weaken a little. The biggest change to client accounts in the last 4 months has been adding the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ), and the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (NYSEARCA: IYE ) to client accounts with the market correction in August-September. We haven’t had any Energy exposure for years. There is more owned now than at any time in the last 5 years. Also bought in September, early October were the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ), and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ), or the Emerging Markets ETFs. The underperformance of emerging markets relative to the S&P 500 the last 7-8 years has been remarkable. We have never owned Emerging Markets for clients before these positions. Finally, I took a shot at some Brazil (NYSEARCA: EWZ ), the last month. Brazil is the confluence of Energy risk, commodity risk, socialism, and inept incompetence, in one ETF. There is an approximate weighting of 5% in Energy, Emerging markets and Brazil in client accounts, depending on a number of other factors.

ETF Investing Strategies To Brave Volatility In 2016

Global stocks were in a mess in 2015, stymied by the sudden currency devaluation in China, spiraling Chinese economic slowdown and the resultant shockwaves across the world. Also, the return of deflationary threats in Eurozone despite the QE measure, a sagging Japanese economy, the oil price rout and a slouching broader market complicated the scenario. Back home, putting an end to prolonged speculation, the Fed finally hiked the key interest rate by 25 bps at the tail end of the year. All these put the New Year in a critical juncture. The investing world may be at a loss of ideas on where to park money for smart gains. For them, below we detail possible asset class movements in 2016 and the likely smart ETF bets. Bull or Bear in 2016? The million-dollar question now is whether U.S. stocks will buoy up or drown in 2016. While policy tightening and overvaluation concerns give cues of an end to the bull run, a dubious performance in 2015 raises hopes that the stocks will rebound soon. After all, the Fed is not hiking rates to rein in inflation. The tightening is reflective of U.S. economic growth and lower risk of deflation, both of which are encouraging for stocks. Thus, stocks should offer decent, if not spectacular, returns next year. Investors can capitalize on a steady U.S. economy via the momentum ETF iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor (NYSEARCA: MTUM ) . To rule out the negative impact of a higher greenback, investors can also try out more domestically focused small-cap ETFs; but a value notion is desirable to weather heightened volatility. S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VIOV ) is one such fund. Investors dreading interest rate hike may also try out this rate-restricted ETF PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: XRLV ). Sectors to Hit & Flop Since investors will be busy in speculating the pace and quantum of Fed rate hikes in 2016, rate sensitive sector ETFs would be winners and losers. Financial sector ETF PowerShares KBW Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBWB ) and insurance ETF Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund (NYSEARCA: IAK ) generally perform better in a rising rate environment. Plus, Consumer Discretionary ETFs like Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLY ) and tech ETFs like Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLK ) also perform well in the early rate hike cycle as per historical standard. Lower gasoline prices should also help consumers to create a wealth effect. On the other hand, high-yielding sectors and the sectors which are highly leveraged will falter in a rising rate environment. So Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ) and Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) could be at risk. Having said this, we would like to note that these are just initial blows and after a few upheavals, the market movement should even out. Where Will Bond Markets Go? The year 2016 may mark the end of the prolonged bull run in the bond market as the first U.S. rate hike in a decade may make investors jittery in 2016. This is more likely if rates steadily move up in the coming months, with the Fed’s current projections hinting at four rate hikes in 2016. Agreed, interest rates environment remained benign even after the lift-off, owing to the global growth worries. But the scenario may take a turn in 2016 if economic data come on the stronger side, inflation perks up and wage growth gains momentum. On the other hand, the possibility of another solid year for fixed income securities can’t be ruled out, especially when stocks are not that cheap. However, investors should note that yield curve is likely to flatten ahead. Since the inflation scenario is still muted, long-term bond yields are expected to rise at a slower pace while short-term bond yields are likely to jump. Yield on the 6-month Treasury note soared 39 bps to 0.50% since the start of the year (as of December 29, 2015) while the yield on the two-year Treasury note jumped 43 bps to 1.09% and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose just 18 bps to 2.32%. Thanks to the potential flattening of the yield curve, the inverse bond ETF iPath US Treasury Flattener ETN (NASDAQ: FLAT ) could be a hit next year. Now that interest rates will be topsy-turvy, floating rate ETFs like iShares Floating Rate Bond (NYSEARCA: FLOT ) should do better going ahead. Investors can also take a look at the interest rate-hedged high yield bond ETFs as solid current income from these securities can make up for capital losses. High Yield Interest Rate Hedged ETF (BATS: HYHG ) is one such option, yielding over 6.50% annually. However, one should also note that the high-yield bond market is presently undergoing a tough time due to the energy market default. So, less energy exposure is desired in the high-yield territory. About 14% of HYHG is invested in the energy sector. Drive for Dividends The Fed may hike key interest rates, but it has hardly left any meaningful impact on long-term treasury yields. So, the lure for dividends will remain intact. U.S.-based dividend ETFs including Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA: VYM ) and Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ) could be useful for investors in waiting out the volatility via current income. Want to Visit Abroad? Where? It’s better to stay diversified as far as the global market investing is concerned. Due to the divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and other developed economies, many analysts are wagering on Europe and Japan (where substantial and prolonged QE reassures are on). Per an analyst , earnings in both regions “will make them attractive from a standpoint of possible capital appreciation.” Plus, the European markets were in occasional disarray this year due to economic hardships. This has made the stocks compelling. However, currency-hedging technique is warranted while visiting foreign shores. Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ) and Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) are two choices in this field. Investors can also stop over at China but with a strong stomach for risks. Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PGJ ) should be a modest bet for this. Occasional Volatility to Crack the Whip Volatility has been pretty strong in the market in 2015 and the trend should continue in 2016. Investors can deal with this in various ways. First comes low volatility ETFs like SPDR S&P Low Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: SPLV ) and iShares MSCI Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) , second are defensive ETFs like U.S Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund (NYSEARCA: BTAL ) and AdvisorShares Active Bear ETF (NYSEARCA: HDGE ) , and last but not the least in queue are the volatility ETFs themselves such as C-Tracks on Citi Volatility Index ETN (NYSEARCA: CVOL ) and ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (NYSEARCA: VIXY ) . Notably, as the name suggests volatility products are quite rowdy in nature and thus suit investors with a short-term notion. Original Post

Preferred Shares From Flaherty & Crumrine: 1 To Buy And 1 To Sell

Summary Flaherty & Crumrine is a preferred stock specialist offering five leveraged and hedged closed-end funds. There has been a strong trend of investment money moving into preferred stock CEFs as the high-yield credit market has faltered. FFC now holds a premium over 8%. Flaherty & Crumrine’s Preferred Stock CEFs There are categories of closed-end funds where I consider that a single sponsor offers a range of funds that make it the best in its class. For taxable fixed-income CEFs, my vote goes to PIMCO. Other fund sponsors offer some excellent competitors, but PIMCO’s full lineup is demonstrably the best in its category. For unleveraged equity-income CEFs, it’s hard to beat Eaton Vance’s array of option income funds. It would be hard to make a case that any other fund sponsor has the across-the-board strength in this category that Eaton Vance’s funds have. I’ve written about each of these recently ( How Safe Are The Distributions For PIMCO CEFs…? and Comparing The Option-Income CEFs From Eaton Vance ) where I give some rationale for those choices. I also have a comparable pick for preferred shares; it’s Flaherty & Crumrine. F&C offers five closed-end funds for the investor in preferred securities: Flaherty & Crumrine Dynamic Preferred & Income Fund Inc (NYSE: DFP ) Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred Securities Income Fund Inc (NYSE: FFC ) Flaherty & Crumrine Total Return Fund Inc (NYSE: FLC ) Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred Income Fund Inc (NYSE: PFD ) Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred Income Opportunity Fund Inc (NYSE: PFO ) We’ll have a look at them individually shortly, but first a few words on the category and asset class. Why Preferreds and Why CEFS? Preferred shares should be a core component of any income investor’s portfolio. They offer stable income with much less price volatility than common stock. They are, of course, interest-rate sensitive as are all income investments, but I am more concerned about volatility in common stocks than I am about volatility from interest-rate moves at this time. I fully expect the Fed will be true to its stated goal of gradual interest rate increases, and I further expect that experienced management can prosper under those circumstances. On the other hand, I am anticipating a difficult year for common stock, and those who have followed my thinking are aware that I am not usually found at the bears’ end of the spectrum. With that in mind, I continue to seek out more defensive positions in my portfolios. Thus, I consider a portfolio shift that reduces exposure to dividend-paying common shares and increases exposure to preferred stocks to be a prudent move. Note that I say “reduces,” a very different thing from “eliminates.” I will still carry a strong position in common shares, but I will also be increasing my allocation to preferreds. One can hold preferred shares in individual equities or ETFs, but it is my preference to look for exposure to this asset class in closed-end funds. It is one of the three areas where I feel CEFs offer the greatest opportunities for income-investors. Let’s explore why. Presently, the median distribution yield for the 17 CEFs that aggregator sites list for the category is 8.32%. Compare that with the two largest preferred stock ETFs, the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (NYSEARCA: PFF ) and the PowerShares Preferred ETF (NYSEARCA: PGX ); these both have a distribution yield of 5.92%. Furthermore, I suspect investors holding a portfolio of individual preferreds will be averaging something fairly close to that yield percentage as well. So if 6% is the prevailing bar for preferred stock yields, where do the CEFs find those extra two and a third points? First, they use leverage. Median leverage for the 17 CEFs is 33.58%. Notice that if we apply that 1.33x leverage factor to the ETFs’ 5.92% yields, it works out to 7.91%. While this is still under the CEFs’ median yield to their investors, it is nearly identical to the CEFs’ median yield on NAV which is 7.86%. So, it seems that the CEFs along with the ETFs and individual share holdings are all generating close to the same level of yield. The CEFs get an added kick that pushes them to even higher yields from their discounts. The median discount stands at -7.11%. This generates an additional 41bps to the market yield over the NAV yield and illustrates the importance of buying CEFs at a discount. It is the combination of leverage and discount that drives the enhanced yields for CEFs over the EFTs. Of course, leverage adds risk, primarily as a multiplier of volatility. Leverage also adds to interest-rate risk as rising rates will make leverage more costly. Why Flaherty & Crumrine? Flaherty & Crumrine has been focused on the preferred shares market for over 30 years. The firm formed in 1983 as a manager of portfolios of preferred securities for institutional investors. It introduced its first leveraged and hedged preferred securities funds in 1991. Through its experience in the preferred securities markets, Flaherty & Crumrine has developed expertise to implement portfolio- and interest-rate management strategies to obtain consistently high levels of sustainable income. This expertise is key to functioning effectively in what the firm describes as a ” wonderfully inefficient market .” When appropriate, the F&C funds employ hedging strategies designed to moderate interest-rate risk. These are designed to increase in value when long-term interest rates rise significantly, from either a rise in yields of Treasury securities or interest-rate swap yields. In general these are used when interest rates are expected to rise. From the current literature I reviewed, it is unclear the extent to which these hedging strategies are currently employed. The Funds Each of the five funds is leveraged near 33%, which is consistent with the category. Each is invested in at least 93% preferred stocks. All but DFP are wholly domestic; DFP is 77.2% domestic with the remainder of the portfolio holding positions from U.K., Bermuda, Western Europe and Australia. F&C’s funds tend to be more tax efficient than many other preferred shares CEFs. For the 2014 tax year qualified dividend income ranged from about 62 to 70% of total distributions. (click to enlarge) I have not reviewed the category for this metric, which is significant in a taxable account, but previous analyses showed other sponsors’ funds with levels of QDI generally under 50% reflecting, in part, greater exposures to REIT preferreds. Portfolios Portfolio compositions are quite similar among them. Each is most heavily invested in financials (ex. REITs) which comprise greater than three-quarters of their portfolios in a roughly 2:1 ratio for banks:insurance. (click to enlarge) PFD and PFO do not list energy or REITs separately; instead they are lumped into “other” sectors. A cursory perusal of the published portfolios indicates a significant fraction of “other” does include energy, but I have not attempted to sort out actual percentages. DFP has the largest energy holdings of the other three funds. Utilities comprise about a ninth of the portfolios of FFC, FLC, PFD and PFO, but only 2.76% of DFP’s holdings. Performance Total return for one year is shown in the next chart. (click to enlarge) And, for the past 3 months: (click to enlarge) As we can see here, there has been a strong flow into the preferred shares funds over the past quarter driving price up relative to NAV. As a consequence, discounts have shrunk and in the case of FFC, valuation has grown to a premium. (click to enlarge) The rising prices relative to NAV for the funds is shown in the 3, 6 and 12 month Z-scores which are positive except for PFD and PFO 12 month values. (click to enlarge) The discounts and Z-scores show that bargain hunters will find little to take advantage of at this time. This has been a trend across the preferred shares category which has median Z-Scores of 0.89, 1.31 and 0.14 for 3, 6 and 12 months, respectively. The shrinking discounts mean that distribution yields are somewhat lower than when I last looked at preferred CEFs in early autumn. Distributions range from 8.06 to 8.5%, in line with the category median of 8.32%. (click to enlarge) Conclusions FFC has been a favorite of mine in the recent past and it is a fund I have held for some time, adding to my position as recently as last September. But at this time its 8% premium makes it an unattractive purchase. Indeed, anyone holding the fund may want to consider trading out of it to capture that premium which I suspect is near a peak value. This is what I have done. FLC is, in my view, the most attractive of the remaining funds. It has a distribution yield better than the category median. Its -4.0% discount is less favorable than the category median of -7.1% but is the deepest discount of the fully domestic F&C funds. Total return on NAV for the past year is stronger than FFC, even as FFC’s growing premium has driving its return on market price appreciably higher. And the exposure to energy preferreds is the lowest of the three funds where that is explicitly listed. DFP, with the same yield and a deeper discount is less appealing to me. The relatively high level of energy-sector preferreds is potentially problematic for one thing. In addition, there has been a stronger trend to discount reduction relative to FLC. If one is attracted to international exposure in preferred stock CEFs, it might be worthwhile to look more closely at the First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred & Income Fund (NYSE: FPF ) rather than DFP. Preferred shares look increasingly to present a timely alternative to the troubled high-yield credit market for income investors. Flaherty & Crumrine offers the preferred shares investor nearly three decades of experience and five funds with strong long-term records. The firm uses hedging strategies to moderate interest-rate risk, potentially an important approach in the coming year. Money flow has been moving out of high-yield bond funds; it seems that some of that flow has been moving into preferred share funds. This has meant discount reductions for the category and, in some case, such as for FFC, premiums to NAV. One might want to take advantage of the rising valuations and trade out of fund like FFC which is unlikely to sustain its premium valuation, while retaining a position in F&C’s hedged and leveraged preferred share funds by opening a position in FLC instead. While I do, as stated, like F&C in the preferred shares CEF arena, there are other funds that should be competitive. I shall be looking at a few of those shortly.