Tag Archives: history

How To Avoid The Worst Sector ETFs: Q1’16

Question: Why are there so many ETFs? Answer: ETF providers tend to make lots of money on each ETF so they create more products to sell. The large number of ETFs has little to do with serving your best interests. Below are three red flags you can use to avoid the worst ETFs: Inadequate Liquidity This issue is the easiest to avoid, and our advice is simple. Avoid all ETFs with less than $100 million in assets. Low levels of liquidity can lead to a discrepancy between the price of the ETF and the underlying value of the securities it holds. Plus, low asset levels tend to mean lower volume in the ETF and larger bid-ask spreads. High Fees ETFs should be cheap, but not all of them are. The first step here is to know what is cheap and expensive. To ensure you are paying at or below average fees, invest only in ETFs with total annual costs below 0.49%, which is the average total annual costs of the 182 U.S. equity Sector ETFs we cover. The weighted average is slightly lower at 0.28%, which highlights how investors tend to put their money in ETFs with low fees . Figure 1 shows that the PowerShares KBW High Dividend Yield (NYSEARCA: KBWD ) is the most expensive sector ETF and the Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHH ) is the least expensive. The ARK ETF Trust ((NYSEARCA: ARKQ ) and (NYSEARCA: ARKW )) provides two of the most expensive ETFs while Vanguard ETFs ( VIS , VDC , VGT , and VHT ) are among the cheapest. Figure 1: 5 Least and Most Expensive Sector ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Investors need not pay high fees for quality holdings. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA: SMH ) earns our Very Attractive rating and has low total annual costs of only 0.39%. On the other hand, Schwab U.S. REIT ETF holds poor stocks. No matter how cheap an ETF, if it holds bad stocks, its performance will be bad. The quality of an ETFs holdings matters more than its price. Poor Holdings Avoiding poor holdings is by far the hardest part of avoiding bad ETFs, but it is also the most important because an ETF’s performance is determined more by its holdings than its costs. Figure 2 shows the ETFs within each sector with the worst holdings or portfolio management ratings . Figure 2: Sector ETFs with the Worst Holdings Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings PowerShares ( PSCC , PTH , and PSCU ) appear more often than any other providers in Figure 2, which means that they offer the most ETFs with the worst holdings. The U.S. Telecommunications ETF (NYSEARCA: IYZ ) is the worst rated ETF in Figure 2. The PowerShares DWA Healthcare Momentum Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PTH ), the PowerShares S&P Small Cap Consumer Staples ((NASDAQ: PSCC )), the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK ), and the Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index Fund (NYSEARCA: FREL ) also earn a Very Dangerous predictive overall rating, which means not only do they hold poor stocks, they charge high total annual costs. Our overall ratings on ETFs are based primarily on our stock ratings of their holdings. The Danger Within Buying an ETF without analyzing its holdings is like buying a stock without analyzing its business and finances. Put another way, research on ETF holdings is necessary due diligence because an ETF’s performance is only as good as its holdings’ performance. PERFORMANCE OF ETFs HOLDINGs = PERFORMANCE OF ETF Disclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

GDX: Gold’s Resurgence Can Keep Rising

By Brenton Garen and Tom Lydon An obvious though still impressive beneficiary of gold’s resurgence this year is the gold mining industry and its corresponding exchange traded funds. That includes the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX ) , the largest and most heavily traded gold miners ETF. GDX is up 50% year-to-date. Not only is that good for one of the best performances among non-leveraged ETFs, it also puts GDX up nearly three times as much as ETFs that hold physical gold. That does not mean GDX and rival gold miners ETFs are perfect investments, not when the industry still faces headwinds. Strategists point out that costs keep rising, which has narrowed profit margins among gold miners. Recent mine closures have not improved margins. Current mining operations are also facing deteriorating ore grades. The recent decline in energy prices and depreciating currencies where local miners operate have also had minimal beneficial impact on cash costs. Gold is seeing greater support from safe-haven demand after currency devaluations across Asia added to investment demand for a better store of value than paper currencies or stocks and bonds. Gold assets look more attractive in a low interest rate environment as the precious metal is more competitive against assets that pay low interest, like bonds. Additionally, if the Fed holds off on further rate hikes, it would suggests the economy is not as strong, which would also help gold attract safe-haven demand. “I believe this could be due to the fact that the cash cost of mining the yellow metal has not only been constantly below the gold price, but also falling. For miners, any increase in the price of gold can push the income as well as profit margins even higher,” according to a Seeking Alpha analysis of GDX. Supporting miners and GDX is the dollar, which has quickly weakened. The greenback is being weighed down on speculation that ongoing uncertainty may force the Federal Reserve to refrain from hiking interest rates in the near future. Consequently, a weaker USD makes alternative assets like metals more attractive . Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF Click to enlarge Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Go Against The Herd To Profit From Emerging Markets

By Carl Delfeld History shows that trades and investments that deliver big returns have one thing in common – they are all based on thinking differently from the herd. Hitting movie theaters in December 2015, The Big Short focused on this theme. While everyone deemed mortgage-backed bonds (especially the higher-quality mortgages) a safe investment, a few perceptive investors saw the reality – that they were a house of cards. The investors in the film, realized the truth because they did some serious independent thinking backed by on-the-ground research. Their research included going door to door in Florida to see just how speculative the housing market had become. This same formula applies to all sorts of markets, but is perhaps most effective in overseas investing. In a recent issue of Foreign Affairs , Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley puts it like this: ” No amount of theory can trump local knowledge… there is no substitute for getting out and seeing what is happening on the ground. ” Networking – Strength in Numbers Whatever my experience in economics, finance, investments, politics, and foreign affairs brings to bear, it’s multiplied many times over by my network of contacts based all around the world, which I’ve spent years putting together. This intelligence network includes chief investment officers, analysts, investment advisors, bankers, stock brokers, hedge fund, private equity and pension fund managers, a sprinkling of tycoons, diplomats, naval captains, professors, and intrepid tycoon entrepreneurs. Others are top-ranked economists and strategists, partners and investment bankers in the U.S., Latin America, Asia, Australia, Japan, and Southeast Asia. And there are also others like me in the equity research business constantly scouring the world for hidden gems across the world. Some of this network is based in major financial centers like San Francisco, London, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Singapore, and Tokyo. But I really prize those contacts plugged into places like Santiago, Panama City, Jakarta, Saigon, Manila, Rangoon, Kuala Lumpur, Malacca, Melbourne, and Taipei. But to take advantage of this intelligence, we all need to start thinking differently to get ahead of the crowd. Here are just some of the new realities we need to act on. New Reality #1 : Wealth and capital, power and diplomacy are making a dramatic pivot to the Pacific Rim. Just as the 20th century was centered on the Atlantic, the 21st century belongs to the nations bordering the Pacific Ocean – including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Chile. New Reality #2 : Where the West sees chaos, turbulence, and poverty in emerging markets, the new tycoons sense emerging growth, profitable change, and opportunity . They don’t need a think-tank or professor to tell them about the rise of the middle class in the Pacific Rim and emerging markets – they see and profit from it every day. New Reality #3 : While this economic pie of $6 trillion in new spending power is huge, the new tycoons would laugh at investing in traditional blue chips like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG ). Instead, they invest in the next blue chips with some serious monopoly power. New Reality #4 : Markets always swing sharply between euphoria and despair. This is why we need to pay very careful attention to price – investing in high potential opportunities only when they are “on sale.” This minimizes downside risk and maximizes upside potential. New Reality #5 : In order to survive and prosper, it is important to anticipate shifts in politics and diplomacy, and look beyond stocks and bonds to alternative assets such as timber, property, commodities, precious and strategic metals, and even rare coins and stamps. As economist Rudi Dornbusch said, “Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” So rather than just react to headlines and events, we need to think three to four steps ahead. That’s the difference between you being a king or a pawn. Original Post