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High Income ETFs Worth Their High Costs

With negative interest rates dominating international headlines and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipping to below 2%, there is huge demand for income ETFs. Yield-hungry investors have rushed to high-dividend securities and ETFs in search of steady current income. Global growth continues to flounder, and the Fed is in no mood to hike rates frequently this year, suggesting continued outperformance by dividend ETFs. That being said, we would like to note that current income turns futile if you end up paying high expenses for a high-dividend or high income ETF. After all, everybody wants value for money. Also, cheaper funds have the potential to outperform the pricey choices. Keeping capital gains or losses constant and considering an expense ratio of 1%, a fund of $10,000 invested at 8% annual dividend will grow to $19,672 in 10 years, while the same fund invested at an expense ratio of 0.1% will grow to a higher amount of $21,390. But there are a few high income ETFs that can be intriguing picks despite the high costs associated with them. These ETFs have given decent performances so far this year (as of April 15, 2016), overruling the heightened volatility in the market. Also, since these have offered solid yields, their high costs do not hurt investors. Below, we highlight a few of such high dividend ETFs that are worth their high expense ratios. YieldShares High Income ETF (NYSEARCA: YYY ) The fund seeks to provide the performance of the ISE High Income Index. This $81.5 million fund definitely has a high expense ratio of 1.82%, but yields a stupendous 10.71% annually. The fund holds 30 closed-end funds ranked the highest overall by the ISE on the basis of three criteria, namely fund yield, discount to net asset value and liquidity. Around 66% of the fund is targeted at debt securities, while the rest are in equities. The fund is up 2.5% so far this year (as of April 15, 2016). Though the capital gains here are not solid, a 10.71% yield makes up for feeble market performance. AdvisorShares Athena High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DIVI ) This $7.4 million actively managed ETF offers dividend yield of about 4.05% and has an expense ratio of 1.30%. The fund is heavy on North America (55%), followed by emerging Asia (16%) and developing Asia (6%). None of the stocks accounts for more than 4.36% of the portfolio. The fund is up 10.7% so far this year (as of April 15, 2016) – a sturdy performance which makes its dividend-adjusted return sturdier. Guggenheim S&P Global Dividend Opportunities Index ETF (NYSEARCA: LVL ) This ETF follows the S&P Global Dividend Opportunities Index, which focuses on high-yielding securities worldwide. As many as 109 securities are chosen from around the world for inclusion, with heavy exposure going toward finance (26.36%), utilities (22.21%), telecom (16.3%) and energy (12.88%) securities. Australian, American and British stocks account for about 20.6%, 17.1% and 15%, respectively, of total assets. This $52 million fund charges 65 bps in fees. It yields 6.06% annually (as of April 15, 2016) and is up 8.3% so far this year (as of April 15, 2016). First Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FGD ) This $352 million fund provides exposure to the 100 high-yielding stocks. None of the securities accounts for more than 1.73% of the assets. From a sector look, financials takes the top spot at 34.33%, while energy, telecom, industrials, consumer discretionary and utilities round off the next five spots with double-digit exposure each. About half of the portfolio is tilted toward large- cap stocks, while mid caps and small caps take the remainder. In terms of country profile, Australia, U.S., Canada and United Kingdom occupy the top four positions. The fund yields 5.16% annually, while its expense ratio comes in at 0.58%. Agreed, an expense ratio of 0.58% is not too steep, but it is way higher than many high dividend ETFs like Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA: VYM ), which charge just 10 bps in fees. The fund is up 5.3% so far this year (as of April 15, 2016). SPDR Income Allocation ETF (NYSEARCA: INKM ) INKM is an actively managed fund of funds that seeks to provide total return by focusing on investment in income and yield-generating assets. The ETF primarily invests in SPDR ETFs, but also includes other exchange-traded products. Investment-grade bonds (31.5%) and equity (27.6%) occupy the top two spots in the portfolio. The expense ratio is 70 basis points, while it yields about 4.13% annually. The fund is up 3.3% so far this year (as of April 15, 2016). Original Post

Distress Testing The Efficient Frontier

Click to enlarge Many historically inclined residents of White Plains, New York can recount the legend of Sleepy Hollow and what inspired it. The day was October 31, 1776, and our young Revolution was in the throes of a heated battle. One this bloody All Hallows Eve, so stirred by his witnessing of a horrific incident on the Merrit Hill battlefield was American General William Heath that he dramatically recorded the horror of it in his journal as such: “A shot from the American cannon at this place took off the head of a Hessian artillery-man. They also left one of the artillery horses dead on the field. What other loss they sustained was not known.” It was the general’s vivid recollection of this scene that was to be the inspiration for author Washington Irving’s penning of his classic ghostly retelling of Heath’s journal entry, America’s version of a common folk tale dating back to Celtic times when for the first time the Headless Horseman set out on his eerie ride. Today, investors may find themselves wondering just what financial spirits have already been unleashed to darken the legacy of the Federal Reserve’s current head. They know what lingers to ominously shadow two of her notable predecessors. Alan Greenspan will forever be disturbed by the ghost of irrational exuberance, and his successor Ben Bernanke by the vestiges of subprime being “contained.” Given the state of the financial markets today, odds are Janet Yellen will be perennially preoccupied with the death of the efficient frontier. In a perfect world, as we were schooled in Portfolio Management 101, investors maximize their return while minimizing their risk. To accomplish this, we’ve long relied on the work of Harry Markowitz who, in 1952, developed a system to identify the most efficient portfolio allocation. Using the expected returns and risks of individual asset classes, and the covariance of each class with its portfolio brethren, a frontier of possibilities is conceived. Where to settle on this frontier is wholly contingent on a given investor’s unique risk appetite. And so it went – in yesteryear’s perfect world. Unfortunately, the Fed’s fabricating of a different kind of perfect world has all but rendered impotent the efficacy of the efficient frontier. There are countless ways to illustrate this regrettable development, one of which can be viewed through the prism of volatility. Investors are now so enamored of the good old days, when assets traded in volatile fashion based on their individual risk characteristics that the “VIX” has become a household name. In actuality, it is as it appears in its all-cap glory – a ticker symbol for the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index. What the VIX reflects is the market’s forecast for how bumpy things might, or might not, get over the next 30 days. As is stands, at about 13, the VIX is sitting on its 2016 lows which are on par with where it was in August following the Chinese devaluation scare. But it has not been uncommon in market history for the VIX to dip below 10 into the single digits, as it did in late 1993. It again broke below 10, but with much more fanfare, in 2007 ahead of a vicious bear market that ravaged investors in all asset classes. Writing up to 16 markets briefs per year for nearly a decade inside the Fed required no small amount of title-writing technique. One of the most memorable of these immortalized in early 2013 was “Fifty Shades of Glaze,” which touched on the very subject of investor complacency using the VIX as evidence. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 11 of that year that investors were “worry free” in light of the VIX falling below 12, a number not seen since 2007. The hissy fit that markets pitched a few months later following the Fed’s threats to taper open market purchases served to send the VIX upwards. But things have since settled down, convinced as markets are that lower for longer is the newest ‘new normal.’ In a seemingly comatose state, the VIX has breached 15 on the downside twice as often since 2013 as it has on average since 2005. “I’ve been making the argument since 2010 that heavy-handed central bank policy is destroying traditional relationships,” said Arbor Research President Jim Bianco, who went on to add “stock picking is a dead art form.” By all accounts, Bianco’s assertion is spot on – the death of stock picking has not been exaggerated. It’s no secret that indexing is all the rage; index-tracking funds now account for a third of all stock and bond mutual fund and exchange-trades fund assets under management. The problem is that the most popular index funds have distorted valuations precisely because passive investing has become so popular. Consider the biggest index on the block, the S&P 500. Now break it down into its 500 corporate components. Some are presumably winners and some not so much. But every time an investor plows more money into an S&P 500 index fund, winners and losers are purchased as if their merits are interchangeable. The proverbial rising tide lifts all boats – yachts and dinghies alike. If that sounds like a risky proposition, that’s because it is. Not only are stocks at their most overvalued levels of the current cycle, index funds are even more overvalued, and increasingly so, the farther the rally runs. As Bianco explained, “In today’s highly correlated world, company specifics take a back seat to macro considerations. All that matters is risk-on and/or risk-off. Unfortunately, this makes the capital allocation process inefficient.” The question is, what’s a rational, and dare say, prudent investor to do? In one word – suffer. Pension funds continue to fall all over one another as they jettison their hedge fund exposure; that of New York City was the latest. It’s not that hedge fund performance has been acceptable; quite the opposite. But ponder for a moment the notion that pensions no longer need to hedge their portfolios. Is the world truly foolproof? Of course, hedge funds are not alone in being herded to the Gulag as they are handed down their Siberian sentences. All manner of active managers have underperformed their benchmarks and suffered backlashing outflows. They’ve just come through their worst quarterly performance in the nearly 20 years records have been tracked. And so the exodus from active managers continues while investors maintain their dysfunctional love affairs with passive, albeit, aggressive investing. When will this all end? It’s hard to say. Bianco contends that it’s not as simple as what central banks are doing – they’ve abetted economic stimulus efforts before. Remember the New Deal? What’s new today is the size and scope of the intervention. How will it end? We actually have an idea. Passive bond funds “enabled the borrowing binge by U.S. oil and gas companies,” as reported by Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowitz. It was something of a vicious process that started with – surprise, surprise – zero interest rates compelling investors to reach for yield. Enter risky oil and gas companies whose bonds sported multiples of, well, zero. It all started out innocently enough in 2008, with these issuers having some $70 billion in outstanding bonds. But every time they floated a new issue to hungry managers, their weight in the index grew proportionately. In the end, outstanding bonds for this cohort rose to $234 billion. “Their debt became a bigger proportion of benchmark indexes that passive strategies used as road maps for what to buy,” Abramowitz wrote. “Leverage begot leverage begot leverage.” Since June 2014, some $65 billion of this junk-rated debt has been vaporized into a default vacuum. Yes, passive investing involves lower fees. But it can also suffer as indiscriminate buying can just as swiftly become equally indiscriminate selling. Such is the effective blind trust index investors have put in central bankers to never allow the rally to die. “The actions of people like Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi matter far more than any specific fundamental of a company,” Bianco warned. “It’s as if every S&P 500 company has the same Chairman of the Board that only knows one strategy, resulting in a high degree of correlation between seemingly unrelated companies.” Nodding to this dilemma, several years ago, the CFA Society raised a white flag on the efficient frontier in a Financial Times article. Any and all applicants were welcome to suggest a new order, a new way for investors to safely design portfolios to comply with their individual risk tolerance. Just think of the inherent quandary facing the poor folks who run insurance companies. These firms have a fiduciary duty to own at least some risk-free assets. That’s kind of hard to do when yields on these assets are scraping the zero bound, or worse, are negative as is the case with some $7 trillion in bonds around the globe. “Investors have traditionally been able to build balanced portfolios with the inputs of risky and risk-free assets,” said one veteran pension and endowment advisor. “Now that risk-free assets sport negative yields in many countries, to earn any return at all, you have to take undue risk. This breaks the back of the whole equation that feeds the efficient frontier.” A while back, Yellen warned investors of the potential pitfalls of owning high yield bonds. She was no doubt studying data that showed mom & pop ownership of these high octane assets was at a record high. Many onlookers balked at the head of a central bank wading into the wide world of investment advice. But perhaps it’s simply a case of recognizing one’s legacy well in advance. Small investors today have record exposure to passive investing. If Yellen fully grasps what’s to come, she’s no doubt preemptively struck and tormented by the future ghost of rabid animal spirits. “It’s like giving a teenage daughter a Ferrari and hoping she won’t speed,” the advisor added. “If central banks keep price discovery in shackles indefinitely, Markowitz will have to return his Nobel prize.” Let’s hope not. If that’s the case, and the efficient frontier never regains its rightful place in the investing arena, we will find ourselves looking back with less than wonderment as the hedgeless horseman gallops away with our hard earned savings.

Bigger Is Better? For Investment Managers, Maybe Not

It’s no secret that America has long operated under an obsession with size. Over the last couple of decades, the average house size has continually increased (even as lots are shrinking ), cars have become supersized , food portions have grown, retail stores continue to sprawl, and even our waistlines have gradually expanded. Everything, it seems, is increasing in mass or breadth , as our national focus on size-above-all becomes ever more pathological with each passing year. This “bigger is better” mentality bleeds over into our financial lives, as well. Even as we rail against the “Too Big To Fail” banks for destabilizing our economy and extracting rents from working-class Americans, we continue to bank with them en masse, lured by the convenience and security of working with a known brand name. As a result, the big banks continue to get larger still, to the point that they’re now bigger than ever (and, coincidentally or not, failing some government-led stress tests). Click to enlarge Unsurprisingly, this same mentality holds true when it comes to our investments, and the advisors we choose to work with. Most individuals simply default to working with the big wirehouse brokerages (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, etc.), even when they could be obtaining better service (and true fiduciary advice ) by working with a smaller, independent Registered Investment Adviser firm. And yet, there’s a growing body of evidence that smaller (and not bigger) might actually be better for many things, including our investment returns. In early 2013, a study released by Beachhead Capital found that among approximately 3,000 long/short hedge funds, the funds managed by firms with total assets under management (AUM) between $50 million and $500 million outperformed those run by larger firms over essentially every time period studied. And the amount of outperformance was significant — 2.54% per year over five years, and 2.20% per year over ten years, with the outperformance concentrated in the years immediately preceding and following the financial crisis of 2009. Risk measures were roughly the same for the different types of firms, so the outperformance can’t be explained by greater risk-taking. And while “dispersion” measures were greater among the smaller advisors — meaning that returns varied more for smaller firms than for larger ones — the overall difference in performance is too large to be ignored. These findings run counter to what much industry research might predict. Whether at hedge funds or at investment advisory firms, scale is generally expected to improve purchasing power, and to allow for access to a broader range of investment vehicles (like certain swaps and derivatives or other over-the-counter products that smaller firms simply can’t access via their existing custodial channels). If nothing else, size is supposed to improve the terms that managers are able to negotiate, whether via lower commissions or fees or via improved investor protections in potential bankruptcies or other corporate restructurings. And yet, intuition aside, these benefits of scale simply don’t seem to be flowing through to the bottom line, for the firms or their investors. Beachhead presented a number of potential explanations for the disparity, a few of which I’ll paraphrase here. Some investments don’t benefit from scale Contrary to conventional wisdom, bigger isn’t always better in the markets; sometimes, size can be a limiting factor, constricting the types of investments that a firm can realistically add to its portfolio. Take the case of the Harvard Management Company, the group tasked with managing Harvard University’s sizeable endowment . For years, HMC’s investment performance was top-notch, consistently beating its peers as its talented managers consistently generated high double-digit annual returns. But as HMC’s portfolio continued to grow, it found itself running out of viable places to put all of its money. In many markets, they had already become the single largest owner of available shares, and to increase the size of their stakes in those investments would impede their ability to exit (or trim) those positions in the future. In some markets, HMC had effectively become the market, simply by virtue of its size. Funds (or managers) in that position are left with two basic options: either begin to branch out into ever more esoteric investments and asset classes, or else pile into the so-called “hedge fund hotels” , those few investment vehicles that have the opportunity for outsized gains, but are also large and liquid enough to accept massive inflows of capital without enduring wild market-moving price shifts. Neither option is particularly attractive, from the investment manager’s point of view. Choosing the “esoteric investments” route often means accepting significantly less liquidity (and an attendant increase in volatility), which tends to limit flexibility while also exacerbating the impact of downturns on fund returns. Indeed, this is exactly what happened to HMC during the 2009 financial crisis, a dynamic that led to a reconsideration of overall investment strategy. But the “hedge fund hotel” route is similarly problematic: for one, how can a fund distinguish itself from its peers when all funds own the same investments? Wouldn’t larger firms then, by definition, simply trend toward standard “average” market performance over time? And, perhaps more concerningly, what happens when a majority of the large funds all run for the “hotel” exits at the same time? At best, the fund is, again, forced to endure greater portfolio volatility, and at worst, the managers are trampled like so many young men in Pamplona . The fact is some investment opportunities are small enough that only a small advisor can really avail itself of the benefits — the market for the investment could be so limited that the large manager’s entrance would simply overwhelm the market and thus eliminate any mispricing opportunity. Even if the large fund were successful in its trade, the gross size of the gain might be so small as to barely impact total fund returns. Think of the old parable of Bill Gates stooping down to pick up a 100 dollar bill (or a mythical 45,000 dollar bill ) — reaching down to pick up that $100 would have little to no impact on his net worth, and it might even be a complete waste of his time to bother with picking it up. For a panhandler, though (or a poor college student, or me or you), that $100 would make a meaningful impact on our bottom line. The same holds true in the markets: sometimes, the available opportunity in a specific investment is limited to a set dollar amount, an amount that will certainly help improve small manager returns, but that would have little to no measurable impact on the returns of the larger fund. Beachhead refers to this dynamic as the “broader opportunity set” dynamic, and it is very real. If it weren’t, then “hedge fund hotels” would never have existed in the first place. As it stands, the larger you get, the fewer markets (or opportunities) you can find that are large and liquid enough to accommodate your increased size. Hence, in some markets, smaller advisors are at an inherent advantage in terms of percentage performance. The “talent” gap It’s generally assumed that the most talented managers will be enticed to work at the largest firms, since those firms have the greatest resources and opportunities, enabling young and talented advisors to thrive and become rich. However, there’s a counter-narrative in play that makes at least as much sense. If you’re truly talented, and capable of generating outsized returns, why would you want to sell that skill off, enabling a large corporation to profit from your work? Wouldn’t you be better off launching your own firm, so as to profit off of your own work, rather than counting on your boss (or a board of directors) to determine your ultimate compensation? Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that smaller advisors represent a specific type of self-selection: only those advisors who are very confident in their ability to survive on their own will even bother to break away and start their own operation. Yes, they’ll be smaller by definition, but their talent and ability to generate returns for investors will be unaffected by a switch in the logo on their business card. As demonstrated above, the advisors might even be able to open up their investment opportunity set by doing so. Arguably, those who choose to work at the largest firms (and stay there for the long run) are simply those who crave the stability and comfort that those firms provide or promise. Particularly for the millennial generation, there seems to be a trend toward entrepreneurship and betting on oneself , and that trend impacts the investment advisory industry as well. If you’re an investor, do you want to hire the manager who needs (or who thinks he needs) a big brand name in order to succeed, or one who trusts in his ability to swim on his own, even without the resources and advantages that the larger firm provides? That remains an open question, but the evidence is beginning to mount in favor of the smaller firm. The importance of each individual client One dynamic that Beachhead does not mention, but that may be particularly important for those looking to choose an investment manager, is what I will call the “burning platform” issue. At a large firm, complacency can often be a very powerful force. For the big wirehouse brokerages, a sudden loss of 1 or 2 or clients (or even, say, 5-10% of clients) may not be meaningful enough to really impact the bottom line over the long run. Sure, a few layoffs and restructurings might result, but the viability of the business is rarely threatened. At smaller firms, though, the experience and importance of each individual client is amplified. A period of sustained underperformance that leads to client attrition could , in fact, threaten the long-term viability of the firm, as well as the paychecks of the managers in question. The closer a manager is to the end user — and the greater the importance of each individual client — the less room for complacency and apathy there will be. At smaller firms, there’s simply less room for ignorance of client needs — you either perform or you’re history, generally speaking. At the end of the day, while we all might derive some comfort from size, research shows that betting on smaller managers can often be a savvy move. Ultimately, brand names are little more than a signalling mechanism — “we’re safe, we’ve been vetted,” say the big brands. You can trust them, they’d argue, because their size indicates that many others have (presumably) done their research and chosen to work with them already. 50 million Elvis fans can’t be wrong , right? Thus, when we blindly choose to work with the big brand name, what we’re effectively doing is outsourcing our due diligence to others. Instead of choosing to learn about the firms or managers in question, we simply rely on the brand name to protect us, because it’s the seemingly “safe” play. Increasingly, that approach doesn’t hold water. As an investor, take it upon yourself to learn more about the actual services that are offered, the actual philosophies that guide different offerings, and really get to know the diversity of service offerings. All of the various industry players have different strengths and weaknesses, the relative merits of which may or may not be important to you; don’t assume that the big guy has exactly what you want and need just because they’re big. In reality, it’s rarely the case. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Business relationship disclosure: The author is a contract employee and partial owner of myFinancialAnswers.com, and he is compensated to provide industry commentary for the site. The opinions provided here may also be published at myFinancialAnswers.com.