Tag Archives: financial
The Bear Market Playbook
As many markets enter bear market territory around the globe, investors are inevitably getting skittish. Bear markets are a regular part of the financial markets, but that doesn’t make them easy to handle. Here are some keys to handling a bear market: 1. Don’t lose your perspective. In the last 45 years, a globally allocated 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has never had a negative rolling 5-year return. Of course, it’s not easy to maintain a 5-year time horizon, but if you have less than a 5-year time horizon, you probably shouldn’t be owning stocks and bonds in the first place. Resisting recency bias is the greatest struggle for most investors. And unfortunately, most people never overcome it…. I’ve witnessed this for decades with clients. The financial markets are a revolving door of investor after investor dying one funeral at a time, thanks to excessive short-termism. You don’t have to be irrationally long term, but focusing on the short term is just as irrational. Of course, if you don’t have a proper allocation in the first place, then you need to ensure that your risk profile is aligned with your asset allocation . 2. Turn off the news. Most of the financial media isn’t there to help you. They’re there to get your attention so they can earn a profit selling ad placements. Unfortunately, there is no emotion more powerful than fear. This is why financial TV ratings surge during bear markets. You tune in, get scared out of your wits, churn up a bunch of taxes and fees in your account, sell into panics, rinse wash repeat. I turned off financial TV almost a decade ago. It was one of the best financial decisions I ever made. 3. Stop looking at your account. Fidelity once found that investors who don’t log in to their accounts perform better than investors who log in regularly. The best thing most investors could do is lose their password to their account about once every five years. Logging in and incessantly focusing on your portfolio is just about the best way to ensure that you become a victim of recency bias. If you have a reasonable plan in place, you just need to let time do the heavy lifting for you. 4. Focus on something else. Get your mind off the short-term swings in the market. There is nothing you can do to control the markets. Excessive activity is the illusion of control during the course of creating inefficient portfolio frictions. Get your mind off your portfolio by focusing on hobbies or work. Sitting around worrying about your portfolio isn’t going to help you or your portfolio.
The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead; Here Is Its Replacement
The following is a proposal I put together for a new client: Click to enlarge As you can see, we do things a little differently around here. Traditional stocks make up less than 40% of the portfolio, with the rest sitting in non-correlated assets outside of the stock market. We invest in everything from options-writing funds to medical accounts receivables and everything in between. The result is that we get most of the safety you would expect from a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio but without the loss of expected return. Our goal is to give you stock-like returns with the risk profile of a blended portfolio. Why Invest in Alternatives? You probably have a good grasp of why diversification is important. Throwing out the financial jargon, it essentially boils down to not putting all of your eggs in one basket. But it also gets a lot more sophisticated than that. Many investors feel that they have adequate diversification because their assets are spread across several stocks or mutual funds. And to an extent, they are right. Owning multiple stocks reduces the risk of downside from any single position. But there is also a major problem with this: Correlation. If Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) stock prices move together in lockstep, you’re not really getting much in the way of diversification by owning both. And in a real bear market, virtually all stocks drop together. True diversification means owning assets that do not move together. Investment A can go up, down or sideways, and it should have little or no impact on Investment B. This is where the beauty of an alternative portfolio comes into play. We can achieve “stock like” returns in the range of 7%-10% per year without the volatility that comes with stocks. Why the 60/40 Portfolio is Dead Alternative assets weren’t particularly popular in 1980. There is a reason for that. Back then, traditional bonds offered a respectable return. A blended 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds offered a solid expected return. Flash forward to present day. At current bond yields, investors will be lucky to get a 2% return in bonds. And compounding the situation, stocks are also expensive by historical measures and priced to deliver sub-par returns. Click to enlarge Accepting a traditional asset allocation is accepting disappointing returns in the years ahead. If you want better performance, we need to look elsewhere. Introducing the New 60/40 Portfolio Sizemore Capital Management custom builds portfolios based on the client’s preferences and eligibility. The following is a sample allocation: Click to enlarge With the market looking overpriced and expected to deliver below-average returns, we need better alternatives. And thankfully, we have them. The following represent Sizemore Capital Management’s expected returns of the assorted asset classes in our model: Click to enlarge We should be clear that these are only estimates. Realized returns will vary and may be significantly higher or lower. But based on current valuations and historical performance, we consider these estimates reasonable. We’re Not Alone While ordinary investors have traditionally invested in stocks, bonds and CDs, wealthy investors and institutions have always had a broader allocation. Consider the case of the Harvard University endowment fund. As of 2015, the Harvard endowment fund had only 3% of its funds in stocks. It has another 18% in private equity and 12% in real estate. The rest is spread across everything from timberland to absolute returns hedge funds. Let’s stop and ask an obvious question: If it’s good for trustees of Harvard, would it not also be good for you? Source: Harvard Endowment Allocation Not all of the alternative investments discussed will be appropriate for all investors. But we believe strongly that every investor can benefit from a proper allocation to alternative investments. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice or as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Sizemore Capital personnel and clients will often have an interest in the securities mentioned. There is risk in any investment in traded securities, and all Sizemore Capital investment strategies have the possibility of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Original Post