Tag Archives: financial
5 Mutual Funds To Ride Solid Service Sector Growth This Spring
Even though manufacturers and energy producers have been adversely affected this year, service companies continue to expand at an encouraging pace. The ISM non-manufacturing index touched its highest level this April, while another indicator, the Markit Services PMI, outstripped the initial expectation. The pickup in service sector activities signaled that the U.S. economy has negotiated the rough winter patch and is more likely to hit stronger growth this spring. In this scenario, investing in mutual funds having significant exposure to the service industry will be a prudent choice. Upbeat ISM Service Index The index for nonmanufacturing economic activity increased to 55.7 in April from 54.5 in March, its highest level since December, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Thirteen of the 18 service sectors tracked by the ISM expanded in April. The index covers almost everything from restaurant meals, dry cleaning, doctor’s visits, haircuts to tax preparations. The reading above 50 indicates that the sector’s activity including employment and prices moved north. The employment index climbed to 53.0 in April from 50.3 in March, while the price index spiked to 53.4 in April from 49.1 in March. Prices increased for the first time in the last three months. Meanwhile, the business activity index dipped to 58.8 in April from 59.8 in the previous month. However, the new orders index rose to 59.9 in April from 56.7 in the prior month. With a jump in orders it is expected that business activities will improve too from the next month. The ISM index extensively surveys a considerable number of purchasing executives spanning the length and breadth of the service sector. According to Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, most of the respondents’ comments reflected “optimism about the business climate and the direction of the economy.” Markit Services PMI Revised Up A separate indicator also showed that the service sector picked up steam last month. Markit Economics’ services purchasing managers index rose to 52.8 in April from a flash reading of 52.1. The index came in at 51.3 in March. April’s data was slightly higher than the first quarter’s average, while overall business confidence strengthened. This showed steady rise in service activities, especially from February’s 28-month low, which was mostly due to disruptions in weather conditions. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said that the Markit’s survey indicated that the economy continued “to pick itself up after the stagnation seen in February.” Growth in Services Picks Up: 5 Mutual Funds to Buy The U.S. service sector witnessed stronger growth in April. This showed that the broader economy has gained momentum following a slow start to this year on manufacturing woes. A strong dollar, weak energy prices and slowdown in global demand weighed on the manufacturing sector. Americans continued to spend for services ranging from haircuts to meals. Some of the major nonmanufacturing industries reporting growth in April include Finance & Insurance, HealthCare & Social Assistance, Real Estate, Retail Trade and Utilities. Respondents from the Finance & Insurance field said that “Business is holding steady, revenue is almost as anticipated and costs are lower which is helping to maintain current profitability.” When it came to HealthCare & Social Assistance, respondents said “We expect our business condition to improve in Q2 as compared to Q1. Typically, Q1 is our slowest period and business activity picks up later through the year.” Respondents from the other aforementioned industries also sounded optimistic. Given this, it will be wise to invest in mutual funds from such nonmanufacturing industries. We have selected five such mutual funds exposed to the service sector that have given impressive 3-year and 5-year annualized returns, boast a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), offers a minimum initial investment within $2,500 and carry a low expense ratio. Funds have been selected over stocks, since funds reduce transaction costs for investors and also diversify their portfolio without the numerous commission charges that stocks need to bear. The Franklin Mutual Financial Services A (MUTF: TFSIX ) invests a major portion of its assets in securities of financial services companies. TFSIX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.41% is lower than the category average of 1.54%. TFSIX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. The Fidelity Select Health Care Services Portfolio (MUTF: FSHCX ) invests the majority of its assets in securities of companies engaged in the ownership or management of nursing homes, health maintenance organizations and other companies specializing in the delivery of health care services. FSHCX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 17.7% and 12.8%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.79% is lower than the category average of 1.35%. FSHCX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. The SSgA Clarion Real Estate Fund (MUTF: SSREX ) invests a large portion of its assets in real estate investment trusts. SSREX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 8.1% and 10.2%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1% is lower than the category average of 1.28%. SSREX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. The Putnam Global Consumer Fund A (MUTF: PGCOX ) invests a major portion of its assets in securities of companies in the consumer staples and consumer discretionary products and services industries. PGCOX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 9.6% and 9.8%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.26% is lower than the category average of 1.43%. PGCOX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. The Fidelity Telecom and Utilities Fund (MUTF: FIUIX ) invests the majority of its assets in securities of telecommunications services companies. FIUIX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 7.8% and 10.2%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.74% is lower than the category average of 1.25%. FIUIX has a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. Link to the original post on Zacks.com
Are You Considering ‘Sell In May, Go Away?’
One of the signs that a stock market may be transitioning from a bull to a bear? Participants dismiss exorbitant valuations , cast aside disturbing shifts in technical trends, disregard economic stagnation and scoff at historical comparisons. For instance, it has been 352 days since the Dow Jones Industrials Average registered an all-time record high in May of 2015. Since the 1920s, when the Dow has surpassed 350 calendar days without recovering a bull market peak, the index has dropped at least 17% on nine out of 11 occasions. On average, the Dow has succumbed to 30% bearish price depreciation. Adding insult to injury here is that the Dow has failed to hold 18000 since it first notched the milestone back on December 23, 2014. That was 499 days ago. Equally compelling? Five days earlier (12/18/2014) marked the Federal Reserve’s final asset purchase in its third round of quantitative easing (QE3). In other words, the stock market has been unable to make any meaningful progress since the Fed stopped expanding its balance sheet. (Note: This also lends credence to research that attributes 93% of the current bull market’s gains to the Fed’s electronic credit/asset purchase interventions). “Forget corporate earnings, sales, the global economy, technical analysis and history, Gary. You’ve got to be a contrarian here because this is the most hated stock market ever!” I’ve heard this claim dozens of times now. Ostensibly, a lack of excitement for stock assets should push stocks back to record heights and beyond. And there may be some truth to the declaration. After all, corporations have been the only “net buyers” for more than three months, as the other participants (e.g., pensions, hedge funds, “Mom-n-Pop” retail, institutional advisers, etc.) have been “net sellers.” On the other hand, according to the National Association of Active Investment Managers, investment sentiment sits at its highest level since April of 2015. Putting that into perspective? A contrarian who recognized the uber-bullishness last year may have exited the market near the all-time record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500 in May of 2015. Similarly, we may once again be at a point where bullishness is overextended. Granted, the S&P 500 might only need to rise 4% from current levels to register an all-time record. In and of itself, that is relatively impressive. Nevertheless, the year over year and year-to-date outperformance of the S&P 500 by the FTSE Multi-Asset Stock Hedge Index (affectionately known as “MASH”) is reason enough to be wary. We’re talking about the collective success of several key components like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ), the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: FXY ), the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ZROZ ) and the iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: MUB ). Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Three-quarters of S&P 500 corporations have reported Q1 2016 earnings. And according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices website, as reported earnings estimates for the S&P 500 (3/31/2016) are now $87.48. The trailing twelve-month P/E? 23.4. “In the era of ultra-low interest rates,” you insist, “it simply doesn’t matter.” Well, then, perhaps you should investigate the four bear markets that occurred in the 20-year period (1936-1955) when the U.S. had similar 10-year yields, yet price-to-earnings ratios that were half what they are right now. Here is one thing that should not be ignored. When precious metals like gold and carry-trade currencies like the yen outperform stocks over 5-6 months as well as one year – when long-maturity U.S. treasuries and Japanese government bonds are behaving in a similar fashion – “risk off” has the edge over “risk on.” Should you sell in May and go away, then? From my vantage point, just make sure you’ve got a comfortable cash/cash equivalent cushion to buy riskier assets at more attractive valuations down the road. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.