Tag Archives: financial-advisors

Day-Of-Month Effect On A Bond/Equity Portfolio

In this post we will: Take a look at a simple, momentum based, monthly rebalanced Equity/Bond portfolio. Search for what has been the optimal dates in the month to rebalance such a portfolio. Each month we allocate to two ETFs: SPY and TLT . If SPY has outperformed TLT we rebalance to 60% SPY – 40% TLT. If TLT has outperformed SPY we rebalance to 20% SPY – 80% TLT. For the first run we will re-balance on the first of the month and close at the last day of the month. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Now we will try different combinations of entry and exit days. We will try to purchase x days before or after the month and instead of exiting at the end of the month we will exit after y days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com The top chart is optimized for Net Profit while the second one for annual return/max drawdown. They are similar in this case, but we will use the second one. According to the chart the best combinations have been: Buy 3-7 days after the month and hold for around 10-18 days. The BuyDayRefToMonth variable refers to when we buy relative to the turn of the month. For example -5 means we buy five days after the turn of the month (i.e., the 6th trading day). +5 means we buy 5 days before the month ends. The BarsnStop variable refers to how many days later we sell the positions. Looking at the charts more closely we see that buying after (not before) the 1st of the month gives consistently better results when set between 2 and 7 days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com How many days we hold the investment is less obvious and seems to work across the given range: Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Let’s run this again but now only for 2012-May 2016: Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Similar results. The only difference is that the holding times are shorter. Let’s now input the optimized numbers and run the backtest. Obviously we will get something that looks good since it has been fit to the data. We buy 6 days after the month and hold 10 trading days. Click to enlarge source: sanzprophet.com Conclusion: There are many variables that affect how we run a dynamic Equity/Bond portfolio. We optimized only two of them, namely when to rebalance relative to the turn of the month and how many days to hold the investment. In terms of entry it was better to wait 3-6 days after the month changes to enter the trade. When it comes to this bond/equity portfolio, rebalancing late is better. Disclosure: I am/we are long SPY, TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Why Active Management Spells Disaster For Retirees: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

Fidelity Contrafund (MUTF: FCNTX ), despite its generally positive reputation, represents a risk that retirees cannot afford to take in the opinion of Seeking Alpha contributor Eric Nelson, an advisor with Servo Wealth Management. The essential problem is that retirees have just one chance to get it right, and can’t afford the risks of style drift or underperformance that any active manager presents. Better to arm yourself with small- and value-tilted index funds, and critically, an advisor who will prevent client drift at just the wrong time, Nelson argues. We’d love to hear your thoughts on all this, in the comments section below. Note to readers: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest will not be published on Thursday. But we’ve got a few extra links of advisor-related stories to hold you till Friday:

The Stock Market, From A Variety Of Viewpoints: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

SA Dividends, Income & Retirement Editor Robyn Conti here, subbing in for Gil, who’s observing Passover this week. I’ll do my best to fill his very talented and knowledgeable shoes and continue to keep you up to date daily on the latest FA analysis and news here on Seeking Alpha. Today’s FA Digest deals with different ways of looking at the stock market, but before we jump in, I wanted to thank you for accompanying me this week. It’s been my pleasure to bring you a variety of topics of interest to financial advisors, and I hope you enjoyed this week’s posts. Gil will be back in the captain’s chair next week. And now, on to today’s stories… In The Stock Market Is Not A Slot Machine, Nor A Vending Machine , Peter F. Way, CFA , presents a multi-faceted view of the markets from a behavioral finance and market makers’ perspective. He writes: Constant change keeps the market churning. Change in technology, change in competition, change in consumer attitudes, desires, change in opportunities, change in risk exposures, threats. What doesn’t change? Human nature, behavior. Financial markets anticipate, as well as react. To deal with both conditions participants must make forecasts. Good forecasts need GOOD information. GOOD information is not to be found in MIS-information – the deluge of largely irrelevant minutia flooding the print and electronic media that tells you what you already know (or think you know) – and “interesting” tidbits that distract, but are not relevant to what you need to know. BAD information – DIS-information – is intentionally misleading falsehoods, usually cleverly disguised and presented at times and in ways to get you to do what will help others while hurting you. Value transferred, not created. Peter then goes on to dissect how the market maker community assists big money managers in making timely trades, and provides an example of how their practices work by discussing how they view Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ ). The bottom line: Advisors and investors need to pay attention to a variety of factors, from the potential for price changes to analyzing alternative options to when investments are made. Not rocket science, to be sure, but definitely an interesting and compelling point of view from someone with intimate knowledge of how market makers help engineer trades and move markets, and how they impact individual investors as a result. Charles Schwab offers a different perspective, offering a look at exit strategies from a technical and charting angle. In Pulling The Trigger: 3 Exit Strategy Philosophies , they prescribe three different types of exits: 1. Find support and resistance zones, 2. Let your profits run, and 3. Take profits (but not necessarily all of them). It’s a bit of a departure from the typical fundamental focus of most SA authors, but no less valuable and useful for advisors and investors who like to incorporate technical analysis and charting into their strategies. Providing more of a 30,000-foot-view of the markets, William Koldus, CFA, CAIA , hypothesizes that, like all good things, the bull market we’ve enjoyed for so many years may, indeed, be coming to an end. He cites underwhelming Q1 earnings, emerging inflation, and soaring share prices returning to reality as reasons the bull market may be winding down. His thesis? “Investors should turn their focus to late stage cyclical plays, as the bulk of the gains for the broader equity market have been achieved in the current bull market.” And from the world of retirement planning and money management, George Schneider discusses self-sabotaging behaviors that often plague investors as they find ways to procrastinate saving for retirement, and suggests a variety of common-sense solutions for turning the ship around, such as prolonging one’s working years, saving early and often, and leveraging employer-sponsored retirement plans and other savings vehicles like traditional IRAs. Of course, the underlying message is that advisors have an opportunity to help clients right their retirement ships by making smart, informed decisions about their money and portfolios, making for smooth sailing into their happy golden years. And finally, we continue to keep watchful eye on the economy here at Seeking Alpha. As such, here’s some of the latest news and views: Tim Duy warns the Fed may shed its dovish feathers and reveal a more hawkish approach going forward . James Picerno writes that next week’s April jobs report will impact whether markets remain bullish or take a bearish turn. Eric Parnell takes a look at the good signs, and the not-so-good ones, for the U.S. economy going forward. Comstock dissects past Fed moves, and speculates on how future Fed decisions may impact stocks.