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Cutting Losses With Fisher’s 3 Golden Sell Rules

Returning readers to Investing Caffeine understand this is a location to cover a wide assortment of investing topics, ranging from electric cars and professional poker to taxes and globalization. Investing Caffeine is also a location that profiles great investors and their associated investment lessons. Today we are going to revisit investing giant Phil Fisher , but rather than rehashing his accomplishments and overall philosophy, we will dig deeper into his selling discipline. For most investors, selling securities is much more difficult than buying them. The average investor often lacks emotional self-control and is unable to be honest with himself. Since most investors hate being wrong, their egos prevent taking losses on positions, even if it is the proper, rational decision. Often the end result is an inability to sell deteriorating stocks until capitulating near price bottoms. Selling may be more difficult for most, but Fisher actually has a simpler and crisper number of sell rules as compared to his buy rules (3 vs. 15). Here are Fisher’s three sell rules: 1) Wrong Facts : There are times after a security is purchased that the investor realizes the facts do not support the supposed rosy reasons of the original purchase. If the purchase thesis was initially built on a shaky foundation, then the shares should be sold. 2) Changing Facts : The facts of the original purchase may have been deemed correct, but facts can change negatively over the passage of time. Management deterioration and/or the exhaustion of growth opportunities are a few reasons why a security should be sold according to Fisher. 3) Scarcity of Cash : If there is a shortage of cash available, and if a unique opportunity presents itself, then Fisher advises the sale of other securities to fund the purchase. Reasons Not to Sell Prognostications or gut feelings about a potential market decline are not reasons to sell in Fisher’s eyes. Selling out of fear generally is a poor and costly idea. Fisher explains: “When a bear market has come, I have not seen one time in ten when the investor actually got back into the same shares before they had gone up above his selling price.” In Fisher’s mind, another reason not to sell stocks is solely based on valuation. Longer-term earnings power and comparable company ratios should be considered before spontaneous sales. What appears expensive today may look cheap tomorrow. There are many reasons to buy and sell a stock, but like most good long -term investors, Fisher has managed to explain his three-point sale plan in simplistic terms the masses can understand. If you are committed to cutting investment losses, I advise you to follow investment legend Phil Fisher – cutting losses will actually help prevent your portfolio from splitting apart. DISCLOSURE : Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC “Contact” page.

Factor-Based ETFs Provide Increased Stability, Returns

During a volatile market climate where ETFs are especially getting hit hard, an increased utilization of factor-based investing has the opportunity to provide more stable and higher returns. Factor-based investing allows investors to increase exposure to certain factors, including size, value, quality and momentum. Last year, MSCI introduced a variety of multi-factor indexes that offer investors a better strategy that could be just right for this market environment. These indices cover US, World, Emerging Markets, and more. Click to enlarge The 1 year return of the MSCI US Momentum Index (NYSEARCA: MTUM ) distinctly outperformed iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF: Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg) A Focus on Momentum Momentum-based investing has proven to be a successful strategy in a volatile market climate, as seen with AQR’s posted returns in their liquid alternative funds. Such a strategy can provide returns in a downed market as well because the strategy works both ways. A hedge fund can short a portfolio of negative momentum securities and vice versa. For MSCI with their new diversified multi-factor indices, it’s all about choosing the right exposure to multiple factors, not just momentum. They’re targeting four main factors (listed above), including momentum. The MSCI USA Momentum Index didn’t perform well in the past year (-8.04%), but the MSCI diversified multi-factor indices have seen much better returns. MSCI is able to increase or decrease their exposure to certain factors that they see as favorable or unfavorable. Such optimization is extremely strategic as risk level of the underlying index is maintained. These multi-factor indices aren’t brand new strategies, either. The MSCI World Diversified Index returned an annualized 9.8% over a 16-year period during backtests, which is double the return of the regular MSCI World Index. The main methodology is to increase factor exposures to achieve higher historical returns. Which Factor is the Best? With the recent sell-off and market environment that is arguably a mess, what is the right factor to increase exposure to? With the MSCI World DMF index, which has one tilt towards value, there was a positive exposure to earnings yield even in this market. There is no one best factor, which is the point of these indices. A combination of multiple positive exposures with tilts towards different factors (momentum, size, value, quality, leverage, etc.) is what has made these MSCI products produce better returns than the run-of-the-mill ETFs. For example, the MSCI World DMF Index had positive exposure to stocks of lightly levered companies, lower residual volatility and smaller size: (SOURCE: MSCI ) The above described strategies for ETFs is something investors should make note of as clearly alternative strategies are needed in this market situation. Consistent optimization of diversified multi-factor products, like those of MSCI’s, are not completely immune to risk, but have now proven to have broken away from the poor performance of regular ETFs in the past year. Factor-based investing is very optimal for this market is a very forward-thinking investing strategy. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

VWO: Good Diversification At A Low Cost

I have made no secret of the fact that we are in the process of transitioning our portfolio allocation such that our portfolio’s core will be comprised of mostly passive index investments . We feel there are several advantages to this approach, but the biggest reasons for the transition are: Greater diversification while achieving tremendous time savings I don’t believe there are enough Great/Amazing companies to build a portfolio around Our intention is adjust the core of our portfolio to consist of relatively non-correlated assets. With those parameters, we can hold this passive index core year in and year out and only have to rebalance periodically. In the past I have talked about the various ETFs we intend to own. Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Market’s ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) is one of them, and I profile it below. Emerging market equity investments have struggled over the past few years. Below you can see how VWO has performed over the past 5 years, compared with the S&P 500 (using SPY as a proxy). While the bull market in US equity investments has surged higher, an investment in Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Market ETF would have lost about 28% of its principal (excluding dividends). Click to enlarge The tremendous disparity in these returns has scared some investors out of investing in emerging markets, but this is the wrong call for our portfolio. Truth be told, I am not saying that every investor should have an allocation to emerging market equities. I won’t pretend to know YOUR personal hopes, goals, etc. If, however, you have chosen to include emerging markets as part of the plan for your portfolio, you must be happy with the poor performance of emerging market equities over the past few years. I know I am. Our most recent purchase of VWO shares was at $28.37 per share, but we made earlier purchases at higher levels. We, my wife and I, believe that exposure to emerging markets is an important part of our portfolio, and we have a great deal more money we would like to allocate to this asset class. Lower prices means that we get more for our investment dollar, but more importantly it also means that we are buying more of profits of the underlying businesses with the same investment. So what do you get when you invest in Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Market’s ETF? Well for starters, you gain exposure to more than 3600 stocks scattered throughout emerging market economies. Below is a table from Vanguard’s website of the countries with the largest exposure to VWO. The exposure is weighted more heavily toward Chinese companies than I would prefer, but on the whole this fund provides excellent exposure to quite a few different economies. Additionally, being a Vanguard ETF, the fund’s expense ratio is very low at 0.15% annually. On their website, Vanguard claims this is lower than 90% of the fund’s competitors. The less money an investor shells out in fees, the more of the investment return that investor makes. Over time, those savings compound every year. Below is a table listing the 10 largest holdings in the ETF. Many of the company names are probably recognizable to you. Many of these companies are considered the “blue chips” of their respective countries. These businesses are some of the largest and best known companies in these markets. It is important for me to know my circle of competence, and I am aware that I do not understand emerging market businesses as well as I do American companies. The transparency of company filings and foreign accounting practices generally keep me from investing in individual companies that are based in emerging market economies. Using a vehicle like Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets ETF allows me to gain my desired exposure, while also diversifying away the risk that a few individual companies are fraudulent and corrupt. Clearly these companies are found across the spectrum of industries. A breakdown of VWO’s sector representation can be found below. I am pleased with this diversification because it spreads the risk of industry specific downturns across all industries. It’s very convenient to have exposure to such a range of economies, industries, and companies from a single emerging market index ETF. As discussed earlier, the stocks of many emerging market companies have taken a drubbing over the past few years. According to Vanguard, the average price to earnings ratio of the companies found within Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is 14.8 and the ETF pays out a dividend yield of 2.9%. Those both compare favorably to the S&P 500’s (with SPY as a proxy) price to earnings ratio of 16.77 and dividend yield of 2.17%. Most importantly, we are gaining exposure to economies that are growing, and demographic trends ensure these economies will make up a larger portion of global GDP in the future. Disclosure: Long Vanguard’s VWO ETF. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation for anyone to buy, sell, or hold any equities. I am not a financial professional. The information above is provided by Vanguard.com and Yahoo Finance. Disclosure: I am/we are long VWO. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.