Tag Archives: etfs

Rangeley Capital Podcast

Rangeley’s portfolio managers go beyond investing. We discuss investments, articles, and events. Tune in each week for discussion and guest interviews. This week, we introduce our new podcast and talk about The Planet-Saving, Capitalism-Subverting, Surprisingly Lucrative Investment Secrets of Al Gore , a favorite investment for the remainder of the year, and Donald Trump. In future weeks, we will discuss new investment ideas as well as the books and articles that change how we think. We will also interview guests from the far corners of the value investing universe. If you have ideas for topics that you would like to hear us discuss or questions that you would like to have answered, please comment below. Finally, if you want a cooler name than Rangeley Capital Podcast, please offer suggestions. The Rangeley Capital podcast is hosted by Andrew Walker and Chris DeMuth Jr, two Rangeley Capital portfolio managers. Click here to subscribe to this weekly podcast.

The V20 Portfolio Week #3: Heading Into Earnings

Summary The portfolio rallied 5.6% versus a gain of 2.1% for the S&P 500. Expect significant volatility going into earnings. I am starting to doubt one of the holdings. The V20 portfolio is an actively managed portfolio that seeks to achieve annualized return of 20% over the long term. If you are a long-term investor, then this portfolio may be for you. You can read more about how the portfolio works and the associated risks here . Always do your own research before making an investment. Read last week’s update here ! Overall, the V20 Portfolio advanced 5.6% for the week against 2.1% for the S&P 500. This offsets much of the loss from last week and the portfolio is bouncing back along with the market. Although the market was overwhelmingly bearish just a couple weeks ago, recent earnings beats by major companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc.) have lifted investor sentiment and I expect the portfolio to benefit from the market tailwind over the next little while. Near-Term Volatility Volatility is the reason why earnings seasons have always been a stressful time for investors. Nothing can compare to that sinking feeling in your stomach when you realize your top holding just tanked 20%. Unfortunately, the V20 Portfolio will not prevent volatility. As I explained in the portfolio introduction , you should actually expect more volatility from the V20 Portfolio due to its concentrated style. As we experience our first Q3 earnings next week (from ACCO Brands (NYSE: ACCO )), definitely be prepared for a rocky ride (both up and down). Significant Portfolio Event All was quiet until Friday. On Friday, our second biggest holding accounting for 28% of the entire portfolio, Conn’s (NASDAQ: CONN ), commenced a “consent for solicitation” for its high yield debt. The objective was to carry the debt with less restrictive terms such as increased limit of share repurchases. The most significant parts of the solicitation will probably go through as the company already has initial consent from 54% of the noteholders. This means that the company will be able to increase its share repurchase limit from $75 million to $375 million. As I believe that the stock is undervalued (why it exists in the V20 Portfolio in the first place), additional repurchases will provide significant upside for the remaining shareholders. The market agreed with this sentiment, as the stock shot up as much as 20% on Friday before settling down with a gain of 11%. On Intelsat This stock (NYSE: I ) has been one of the laggards in the V20 Portfolio. The following price chart tells the sad story. Unlike Conn’s, I still did not add to the position as it declined. Why is that? The biggest reason is the new information that is making me question my original investment thesis. Financial Times leaked a possible deal that involved Intelsat selling assets to cut down debt. This is significant in two ways. For one, the information was leaked by an insider to a respectable news outlet, so this has some credibility. While there is no guarantee that the deal will go through, it does trouble me that the management would decide to pursue such a deal without giving any indication to shareholders. Secondly, if the deal goes through, it will no doubt impact valuation in some ways. Right now that is a big question mark as investors have no information whatsoever. This means that Intelsat’s future is no longer as certain as I once thought. The Week Ahead Expect volatility in the coming weeks as the V20 Portfolio pushes through earnings season. ACCO Brands and Intelsat will be reporting next week. I am not particularly worried about ACCO Brands as it is a fairly stable company. I expect Intelsat’s management to shed more light on the company’s future. If additional disclosure can erase my doubt, then I may add to the Intelsat position at the current price.

A High-Yield Option For Income Investors

Investing in financial markets has become considerably more difficult since the summer. High yielding assets, as well as stocks have taken a beating. Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF, however, has seen a steady increase in principal, while providing an attractive dividend yield. As the Treasury yield curve has contracted, alongside falling equity markets, investors have been left with few avenues to invest. Higher yielding dividend stocks, generally yielding below 3%, have seen declines in principle due to the most recent equity market rout. Additionally, junk bonds have seen broad selling pressure as investors shunned riskier assets for fear of slowing economic activity. A lone star, however, has emerged in the form of the Market Vec tors High-Yield Municipal Index ETF (NYSEARCA: HYD ) . This asset has risen close to 4% since early July, while yielding a dividend of 4.81%. This combination of appreciation of principle, as well as stable dividend yield, could be a smart play for investors seeking income in coming months. With the Federal Reserve stuck to its zero-bound lending rate, income investors have had trouble finding sustainable income sources. The global economy continues to weaken, alongside the persistence of foreign central banks loosening monetary policy, causing the Fed to potentially have trouble hiking rates in the near future. The chart below is of the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) over the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) . This indicator represents the Treasury yield curve. When the indicator declines, it signals a contraction of the yield curve, and thus lowered expectations of a rate hike for monetary policy. Since peaking in the summer of 2015, slowing economic growth, and global financial market volatility has spooked Fed members, forcing them to push out their projected time frame for hiking rates. Furthermore, with investors continuing to buy bonds, yields have fallen to levels providing very little income for investors. (click to enlarge) Moreover, financial market volatility has pushed both junk bonds, and broader equity markets lower. Investors feel that equity markets have topped globally, and the combination of falling currencies, and commodities signal that global growth concerns are finally resulting in increased caution. While dividend stocks may be outperforming the market on a relative basis, these companies are still losing value in 2015. As U.S. earnings season disappoints, investors are pushing all sectors lower. Additionally, weak equity market performance is weighing on junk bonds as risk sentiment diminishes. After my degradation of basically every asset class, there seems to be one lone performer that has provided true safe-haven status. High yielding municipal bonds have outperformed as investors favor the comfort of government backed securities, alongside an attractive yield. As municipalities have lowered their leverage in recent years, their perceived stability has risen. This index also does a nice job of spreading risk, allowing investors to get exposure to a basket of riskier municipal bonds, with lower overall default risk. The Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF has proven a strong investment amid the recent volatility in bonds, equities, and currencies. As long as the Fed prolongs raising rates, and financial markets remain volatile, this high yielding municipal ETF should provide steady gains. (click to enlarge)