Tag Archives: etfs

Is The Argentina ETF A Good Buy Ahead Of The Runoff Election?

Argentina has been on investors’ radar lately for the much-awaited election results that can make or break its fate for the coming four years. The country’s economy is in dire straits, with cooling growth, higher inflation, declining currency and debt default issues. Naturally, a probable change in political power, which might bring about a shift in economy policies, has drawn investors’ attention. In such a backdrop, a poll was held on October 25. But the election did not led to a clear winner, and thus led to a runoff. Notably, Argentina’s outgoing leftist president, Cristina Fernandez, was constitutionally debarred from fighting for the third successive term , and her party’s candidate shocked with a feeble performance. And Conservative opposition’s pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri’s unexpected strength in the poll box set the stage for a runoff on November 22 . Marci will rival FPV candidate Daniel Scioli, who is, in fact, backed by Cristina Fernandez. The first round of elections was a neck-to-neck competition, with Daniel Scioli getting 36.86% and Macri receiving 34.33% votes. Sergio Massa, a past partner of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner who shifted allegiance to the opposition, could be the wire-puller after capturing 21.34% of the votes, with analysts suspecting that he might tie up with Macri to form the government, as per NY Times . Since Mauricio Macri is viewed as a proponent of free markets, a runoff lifted the Argentine equities. However, citizens are receiving online warnings that they might lose out on social welfare if Macri wins. Basically, Scioli has a leftist approach. He is, thus, repeatedly referring to the free-market policies of the 1990s that led to the 2002 economic crisis, per Reuters . However, Macri’s political pledge is to revamp investment and curb inflation, while simultaneously maintaining the required social programs. Market Impact As the first round of election went against the opinion poll and Mauricio Macri emerged as a dark horse to capture the close second position, investors started to look for growth prospects in Argentina. Several analysts went long on these stocks. The only ETF targeting the nation – the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEARCA: ARGT ) – added about 22.9% in the last one month (as of November 2, 2015), of which 11.7% returns came in the last 10 days. Can it Run Further? The second round of elections will take place on November 22. And with Scioli still maintaining the lead, hopes are still alive for him to win. Sergio Massa’s 21% voters will matter the most now, as they could swing the balance. If Macri wins, the Argentina ETF is sure to see a nice rally. If not, then too the stocks will likely enjoy a decent run on hopes of a political change ahead of the runoff election. Investors should also note that Scioli is apparently more market-friendly than Fernandez, under whose governance the country’s growth slackened. So no matter who wins, the Argentina ETF might see a rebound in the near term. ARGT is still 13.7% down from the 52-week high (as of November 2, 2015), and thus, has room for further advancement if speculations over Macri’s win persist. So, investors with a stomach for risks can take a look at the ETF. The fund presently has a Zacks ETF Rank #5 (Strong Sell), with a High risk outlook. Let’s wait for November 22 to see what lies ahead for ARGT in this uncertain time. ARGT in Focus The ETF tracks the MSCI All Argentina 25/50 Index, which measures the performance of the 30 largest and most liquid companies that are listed in Argentina or perform most of their operations in the country. Holding 30 stocks in its basket, the fund is highly concentrated on the top four firms at 60%, while other firms do not hold more than 5.68% share. The fund has amassed $15.2 million in its asset base, and trades at an average daily trading volume of nearly 12,000 shares. The product charges 74 bps in fees and expenses. Original Post

Lipper’s Q3 2015 U.S. Mutual Funds And Exchange-Traded Products Snapshot

By Tom Roseen Conventional Mutual Funds Summary Global markets took it on the chin over the last three months, with fears of slowing global growth, Federal Reserve tightening measures, slumping commodity prices, and drug-pricing issues sending the major indices down during the quarter more than 10% from their recent market highs. Total net assets (TNA) in the conventional funds business (not including exchange-traded products [ETPs] and variable insurance products [VIPs]) dropped below the $15-trillion mark for the first quarter in six. As a result of large declines in the price of oil and on fears of China’s slowing growth, for Q3 2015 the emerging markets funds macro-group witnessed the largest relative (-17.52%) decline in total assets under management from the prior quarter-end, while the large-cap funds macro-group suffered a decline of $152.3 billion-the largest absolute decline in total assets under management. Investors ducked for cover during the quarter and padded the coffers of money market funds. The fund group witnessed the largest relative (+1.35%) and absolute (+$30.5 billion) increase in TNA for the quarter. Open-End Funds’ (ex-ETPs’) Total Net Assets ($Mil) by Macro-Group, Rolling Quarters Through Q3 2015 (click to enlarge) Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Exchange-Traded Products Summary On fears of slowing global growth, Federal Reserve tightening measures, and slumping commodity prices during Q3 2015, TNA in U.S. ETPs (including exchange-traded funds, exchange-traded notes, exchange-traded commodities, limited partnership commodity pools, master limited partnerships, and exchange-traded fund [ETF] unit investment trusts) dropped below the $2.0-trillion mark for the first quarter in four. For Q3 2015 the emerging markets ETPs macro-group witnessed the largest relative (-26.00%) and absolute decline (-$37.0 billion) in TNA from the prior quarter-end. The alternatives ETPs macro-group experienced the largest relative (+26.35%) increase in TNA for Q3, while the Short-/Intermediate-Term Bond ETP macro-group witnessed the largest absolute increase in TNA (+$14.3 billion) for the quarter. (click to enlarge) Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper In the complete issue of Lipper’s Q3 2015 U.S. Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Products Snapshot , we feature a summary of total net assets, estimated net flows, and new fund creations for conventional funds and exchange-traded products for Q3 2015, comparing those changes to prior quarters and highlighting the largest individual gainers and losers of both groups. Lipper’s U.S. Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Products Snapshot provides readers a powerful, easy-to-use guide and quick reference tool to help them discern fund trends for the quarter.

Why I Still Like DoubleLine Total Return As A Core Bond Holding

Summary Certain bond funds, and fund managers, have proven to be successful navigators in the complex environment of security selection, duration, and risk management. I am a staunch advocate of ETFs and believe that they are one of the best tools in an investors’ arsenal. However, you simply can’t find this unique bond strategy in an ETF at this time, which is why we have continued to stick with the marginally more expensive mutual fund. Long time readers of our blog know that we are proponents of active management in the fixed-income world . Certain funds, and fund managers, have proven to be successful navigators in the complex environment of security selection, duration, and risk management. For that reason, we continue to recommend to our clients that they step outside the confines of a benchmark index to seek greater returns or reduced volatility as a result of interest rate fluctuations. One long-term core holding in our Strategic Income portfolio has been the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (MUTF: DBLTX ). This actively managed mutual fund is governed by Jeffrey Gundlach, who has risen to fame as one of the premiere fixed-income experts in the world. DBLTX invests more than 50% of its portfolio in mortgage-backed securities, but can also hold assets like Treasuries, corporate bonds, and cash when needed. Over the last year, Gundlach and his team have added a significant measure of alpha over a diversified bond index such as the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ). For an accurate comparison, I have also over laid a sector-specific mortgage index in the iShares MBS ETF (NYSEARCA: MBB ) as well. DBLTX has returned nearly double the gains of AGG and has also significantly outperformed the dedicated mortgage index over the last 52-weeks. If we widen the time frame to 3 years, you can see how substantial this performance gap has become. I am a staunch advocate of ETFs and believe that they are one of the best tools in an investors’ arsenal. However, you simply can’t find this unique bond strategy in an ETF at this time, which is why we have continued to stick with the marginally more expensive mutual fund strategy . The manager has earned that higher fee through superior performance, which is just what you want to see when you are paying a premium versus cheaper passively managed indexes. Now the question becomes – how much more juice can a fund like DBLTX squeeze out in relative performance versus its benchmark moving forward? It’s important to remember that DBLTX is not a “go anywhere, do anything” strategy. It’s going to behave like a bond fund, not like a stock fund or alternative investment strategy. The manager has guidelines that allow a certain degree of flexibility, but it is ultimately going to be directed by the interest rate and credit environment in any given year. While the timing is difficult to ascertain, there will almost certainly be periods of sharply rising interest rates on the horizon. I believe that this is where the managers of active mutual funds such as DBLTX can add the most value versus passive indexes. Treasury and investment grade-heavy benchmarks with intermediate term durations are going to underperform in a rising rate environment. The longer the duration or higher quality the bonds, the greater volatility that index will endure. However, an actively managed fund that can lower its duration and adjust its holdings to coincide with pockets of value or momentum will likely continue to earn its keep and outpace the competition. The Bottom Line Doubleline has been in the right places at the right times over the last several years. However, that doesn’t make them infallible to an incorrect call on interest rates or underperformance as bond market trends change. As with any active strategy, it’s important to regularly monitor the fund’s performance versus its peer group and benchmark to ascertain that they are achieving returns in line with your goals and realistic expectations.