Tag Archives: etf

5 ETF Ways To Keep Volatility At Bay

The Fed is poised to hike the benchmark interest rate in two weeks after almost a decade, oil prices are hitting fresh lows on supply glut and overvaluation concerns over the U.S. market are doing the rounds. Together, these aren’t creating the best backdrop to invest in the equity markets. Moreover, the slowdown in China and the eurozone, the recession in several emerging markets and a technical recession in the Japanese economy continue to cast a shadow over global growth. Plus, broader commodities are slouching, putting mining companies at risk. The sought-after investment broker Goldman Sachs expects weakness in the market next year, with the S&P 500 predicted to close out 2016 at 2,100. The U.S. index presently trades at 2,088, implying almost no change in gains in the coming 13 months. Among the top ETFs, investors have seen the S&P 500-based fund SPY adding about 1.4% and the Dow-based fund DIA losing about 0.3%. Only the tech-laden Nasdaq-based fund QQQ has advanced 11% so far this year (as of December 7, 2015). Higher interest rates post lift-off will result in a stronger greenback, which, in turn, curtailed the profit outlook of the companies. In Q3, earnings from the S&P 500 were down 2.4%, while revenues declined 3.9%. As per Zacks Earnings Trends , earnings for Q4 are projected to be down 6.5% on 3.4% lower revenues. Though the majority of the Fed’s lift-off move is priced in at the current level and the investing world is expecting a slow and small rate hike trajectory, as the U.S. economy is yet to attain the central bank’s inflation goal, a certain level of initial shocks are inevitable once the step is taken. This might lead many investors to seek refuge in low-risk products rather than sticking to highly volatile options and enduring the economic data and Fed-infused storm. In such a scenario, the low-volatility products could be intriguing choices for those who want to stay invested in domestic equities, but like the idea of focusing on minimum volatility. Low-volatility ETFs generally tend to offer positive risk-adjusted gains, though not huge. Investors should note that in down years like 2015, low-volatility products outperform the traditional benchmark. Over the long term as well, low-risk products are seen to surpass the high-risk securities. Below, we highlight five low-volatility ETFs and offer the key features of each so that you can find out which of them is best suited to look after your portfolio . PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: SPLV ) This $67.1 million low-volatility ETF consists of the 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index with the lowest realized volatility over the last one year. The fund is heavy on Financials (28.2%), followed by Consumer Staples (21.3%), Industrials (16.7%) and Healthcare (12.4%). It charges 25 bps in fees. SPLV is up over 2.2% so far this year (as of December 7, 2015), and has a Zacks ETF Rank #2 (Buy) with a Medium risk outlook. PowerShares S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: XMLV ) This overlooked ETF looks to follow the S&P MidCap 400 Low Volatility Index. The product invests about $118.4 million in assets in 80 stocks. From a sector look, Financials make up half of the portfolio, followed by about 11.26% of assets invested in Industrials and 10.54% in Utilities. The portfolio has minimal company-specific concentration risk, with no company accounting for more than 1.71%. The product charges about 25 bps in fees. It is up 5.4% so far this year. iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) USMV measures the performance of equity securities in the top 85% by market capitalization of U.S. equities that have lower absolute volatility. It has garnered an asset base of $6.85 billion. This fund is home to 171 securities in total, and assigns double-digit allocation to the Financials (21.2%), Healthcare (19.6%), Information Technology (15.71%) and Consumer Staples (14.43%) sectors. The product also has an edge over its peers when it comes to expenses, as it charges a fee of just 15 basis points annually, while it yields about 1.89%. It has delivered a return of over 4% so far this year. PowerShares S&P 500 ex-Rate Sensitive Low Volatility Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: XRLV ) This ETF has already amassed over $113 million in assets. It offers investors dual benefits. First, it is targeted at low-risk stocks, and second, it is insulated from the impending Fed rate hike, as it considers stocks which are less rate-sensitive. Holding 100 stocks in its basket, the fund dose not put more than 1.29% of the total in a single security. It is heavy on Financials (28.2%) and Industrials (21.5%). It charges 25 bps in fees. This product has returned 3.2% in the year-to-date frame (as of December 7, 2015). SPDR Russell 1000 Low Volatility Focus ETF (NYSEARCA: ONEV ) This brand-new ETF gives exposure to low-volatility investing in large cap equity securities. The 424-stock fund is heavy on Financial Services (20.2%), trailed by Consumer Discretionary (16.62%), Producer Durables (15.98%) and Consumer Staples (12.2%). It charges 20 bps in fees. Original Post

All The Time, Every Time

Most investors, especially those at or near retirement, would give a limb or two for consistent returns. They wouldn’t even have to be staggering, Bernie Madoff 12% consistent returns. 4-5% real returns year in and year out is a pension trustee’s dream. Of course, it’s not surprising then that so many investment products and strategies promise this, or something that smells enough like it to pass muster. Some of these have become quite popular in recent years as investors are still trying to avoid another 2008-2009 bear market but keep stock-like returns (or at least something better than a 2.2% Treasury yield). Some risk parity or “all-weather” strategies have gained notoriety, including a spin on Ray Dalio’s All-Weather retail strategy highlighted in Tony Robbins’ recent book (which I covered in some detail here ). So just how all-weather has said strategy been of late? I ran a historical simulation with publicly available products to fill in the allocations as follows: 40% long-term Treasury bonds (NYSEARCA: TLT ) 30% US stocks (NYSEARCA: VTI ) 15% intermediate bonds (NYSEARCA: BND ) 7.5% commodities (NYSEARCA: GSG ) 7.5% gold (NYSEARCA: GLD ) Now, as I’ve pointed out before, this portfolio allocation is bond heavy and duration heavy. When long-term bonds hold up, this portfolio will too. When they don’t, it’s going to be tough going. Year to date through 11/30/2015, this allocation is down -2.30% despite long-term bonds (TLT) having an impressive gain of 9.07% over the same period. Commodities have been crushed (-42.35%) and gold is down (-8.79%), wiping out gains elsewhere. It’s not like I’m sitting here saying -2.30% is terrible. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (MUTF: VBINX ) is only up 1.80% over the same period (YTD through 11/30/2015). But the “All Weather” portfolio doesn’t come with any guarantees. The worst 12-month period in my simulation (4/2007-11/2015) had a double-digit loss like most other strategies (-15.26 through 2/2009). And we honestly haven’t seen an environment with rising rates to really test this out. The returns from long-term bonds (TLT) over this period drove more than 100% of the return of this “All Weather” strategy over the test period. That’s right, diversifying away from long-term bonds hurt you (How many people made that bet when the Fed took the Fed Funds rate to zero?). If you think that long-term returns from high-duration bonds are going to be 7-8% from here, you might have a surprise coming. With an average duration of 14.30 in this portfolio, there’s no escaping the impact of higher long-term rates on performance, if and when they come. My real point here isn’t to pick on the All-Weather portfolio per se. It’s to help us all understand that no strategy is ideal. Nothing is going to work all the time, every time. “All Weather” is a misnomer. It’s not totally unreasonable to think there is a period of time when rates can go up (long bonds go down) and stocks are flat or down. Or when rates are up enough to offset any potential gains from stocks. Or a year like 2015 when losses in commodities are sufficient to take out healthy gains from the long-term bonds. Despite our best attempts, investing involves risk. We can mitigate that through portfolio diversification, but there is no eliminating inconsistent short-term returns. Some years are going to be better, and some will be worse. I don’t know which will be the case for your portfolio next year, but if you aren’t prepared for that, you’re going to find yourself making some nasty mistakes.