Tag Archives: etf

The Timeless Wisdom Of Sir John Templeton

By Tim Maverick Sir John Templeton (1912-2008) may be gone, but he’s still remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time. For one, Sir John popularized the idea of investing globally for U.S. investors. He launched his flagship Templeton Growth Fund when most didn’t even think of investing outside U.S. borders . That pioneering fund racked up an enviable track record, returning an average of 13.8% annually from 1954 to 2004. To this day, many of Templeton’s timeless investing principles still apply. Indeed, some of his principles have shaped how I approach investing. Below are a few of them. They come courtesy of the Franklin Templeton website and the Templeton Foundation. #1: Buy Low Seems obvious, right? But in reality, many investors do the opposite. They chase hot sectors after dramatic moves higher. Sir John always scoured the globe for bargains. He told investors to buy when everyone else is selling, when things look darkest, when all the experts say a certain investment is too risky. Templeton advised us to “buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are avidly buying.” He would often say, “People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook most miserable? The obvious application of this concept in practice is to avoid following the crowd.” I wonder what Sir John would think of today’s market, where the elite tech and biotech stocks are loved and everything overseas and commodities-related is detested? #2: Invest for the Long Term Hand in hand with value investing is investing for the long term. Templeton said, “Experience teaches us that one of the most common errors in selecting stocks… is the tendency to emphasize only the most obvious factor – namely, the temporary outlook for sales and profits of the company.” In other words, ignore Wall Street’s emphasis on quarterly earnings reports. Too many investors spend too much time looking at the short-term market outlooks and trends. #3: Diversify Sir John didn’t believe that one specific investment is always best – although over the long term, stocks do outperform. More importantly, no one can predict the future. If you’re focused too much on one company, sector or country, your portfolio is at risk. Sir John advised us to diversify by risk, industry, and country. He would say, “In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.” #4: Learn From Past Mistakes Everyone makes mistakes investing, even Sir John. As he said, “The only way to avoid mistakes is to not invest – which is the biggest mistake of all.” Instead, Templeton advised us to not become discouraged by loss and especially not to take even greater risks and try to recoup our losses all at once. He believed that the difference between successful and unsuccessful investors is that successful investors learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others. Relatedly, you should run for the hills anytime you hear someone on CNBC say it’s a new era or that it’s different today. According to Sir John, “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing .” #5: Don’t Be Overconfident In other words, always question your investment approach. Is it still valid? Sir John wrote, “Everything is in a constant state of change, and the wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.” A great example of this is how much the investment climate has changed surrounding energy MLPs. Investors poured tens of billions of dollars into funds investing in the sector, only to see losses of up to 35% on some funds this year. Other Templeton Insights Of course, there are plenty more insights to be gleaned from Sir John’s vast experience. He wasn’t a fan of trading – “The stock market is not a casino” – or of index funds – “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can’t outperform the market if you buy the market.” He also gave other common sense tips for investors, such as remembering inflation and taxes when investing, doing your homework, and always monitoring your investments. If readers wish to look at a number of Sir John’s investing tips, here’s a link: Templeton Wisdom . Keep in mind that they were written in 1993, so some of the data is very outdated. The insights, however, are timeless. Original post

Going Shopping: Chicken Vs. Beef

The headlines haven’t been very rosy over the last week, but when is that ever not the case? Simply put, gloom and doom sells. The Chinese stock market is collapsing; the Yuan is plummeting; there are rising tensions in the Middle East; terrorism is rising to the fore; and commodity prices are falling apart at the seams. This is only a partial snapshot of course, and does not paint a complete or accurate picture. Near record-low interest rates; record corporate profits (outside of energy); record-low oil prices; unprecedented accommodative central bank policies; and attractive valuations are but a few of the positive, countervailing factors that rarely surface through the media outlets. At the end of the day, smart long-term investors understand investing in financial markets is a lot like grocery store shopping. Similarly to stocks and bonds, prices at the supermarket fluctuate daily. Whether you’re comparing beef (bonds) and chicken (stocks) prices in the meat department (stock market), or apple (real estate) and orange (commodities) prices in the produce department (global financial markets), ultimately, shrewd shoppers eventually migrate towards purchasing the best values. Since the onset of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, risk aversion has dominated over value-based prudence as evidenced by investors flocking towards the perceived safety of cash, Treasury bonds, and other fixed income securities that are expensively priced near record high prices. As you can see from the chart below, investors poured $1.2 trillion into bonds and effectively $0 into stocks . Consumers may still be eating lots of steaks (bonds) currently priced at $6.08/lb while chicken (stocks) is at $1.48/lb (see U.S. Department of Labor Data – Nov. 2015), but at some point, risk aversion will abate, and consumers will adjust their preferences towards the bargain product. Some Shoppers Still Buying Chicken While the general public may have missed the massive bull market in stocks, astute corporate executives and investment managers took advantage of the equity bargains in recent years, as seen by stock prices tripling from the March 2009 lows. As corporate profits and margins have marched to record levels, CEOs/CFOs put their money where their mouths are by investing trillions of dollars into share buybacks and mergers & acquisitions transactions. Despite the advance in the multi-year bull market, with the recent sell-off in the market, panic has dominated rational thinking. Once again, the rare occurrence (a few times over the last century) the dividend yield of stocks once again exceeds the yield on Treasury bonds (2.2% S&P 500 vs 2.1% 10-Year Treasury). But if we are once again comparing beef vs. chicken prices (bonds vs stocks), the 6% earnings yield on stocks (i.e., Inverse P/E ratio or E/P) now looks even more compelling relative to the 2% yield on bonds. For example, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ) is currently yielding a meager 2.3%. For a general overview, Scott Grannis at Calafia Beach Pundit summarizes the grocery store flyer of investment options below: While these yield relationships can and will certainly change under various economic scenarios, there are no concrete signs of an impending recession. The recent employment data of 292,000 new jobs added during December (above the 200,000 estimate) is verification that the economy is not falling off a cliff into recession (see chart below). As I’ve written in the past, the positively-sloped yield curve also bolsters the case for an expansionary economy. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit While it’s true the Chinese economy is slowing, its rate is still growing at multiples of the U.S. economy. As a communist country liberalizes currency and stock market capital controls (i.e., adds/removes circuit breakers), and also attempts to migrate the economy from export-driven growth to consumer-driven expansion, periodic bumps and bruises should surprise nobody. With that said, China’s economy is slowly moving in the right direction and the government will continue to implement policies and programs to stimulate growth (see China Leaders Flag More Stimulus ). As we have recently experienced another China-driven correction in the stock market, and the U.S. economic expansion matures, equity investors must realize volatility is the price of admission for earning higher long-term returns. However, rather than panicking from fear-driven headlines, it’s times like these that should remind you to sharpen your shopping list pencil. You want to prudently allocate your investment dollars when deciding whether now’s the time to buy chicken (6% yield) or beef (2% yield). DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs) including AGG, but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.

The Year In Review: Investors Pull Money Out Of Mutual Funds

By Patrick Keon For 2015 Lipper’s mutual fund macro-groups (equity, taxable bond, money market, and municipal bond) experienced overall net outflows for the first time since 2011. The mutual fund groups saw over $121.5 billion leave their coffers last year, with taxable bond funds (-$85.9 billion) and equity funds (-$60.0) accounting for all of the net outflows. Money market funds (+$16.0 billion) and municipal bond funds (+$8.4 billion) were able to take in net new money for the year. The negative flows from taxable bond funds represented their first annual decrease since 2000 and their largest net outflows since Lipper began tracking fund-flows data (1992). After a positive start to 2015 the group suffered $109.2 billion of negative flows during the last two quarters of the year, when it became apparent the Federal Reserve was looking for an opportunity to start raising interest rates before finally doing so in December. The selling was spread out across both investment-grade and below-investment-grade bond funds; funds in Lipper’s Core Plus Bond Funds (-$20.6 billion), Loan Participation Funds (-$20.0 billion), and High Yield Funds (-$14.5 billion) classifications all experienced substantial net outflows. The annual net outflows for equity funds marked their first decrease since 2012; the group had taken in over $270 billion of net new money for 2013 and 2014 combined. Equity funds did start 2015 strongly with net inflows of almost $34 billion in the first quarter, but the tide turned after that with three straight quarters of net outflows, culminating with $73.0 billion of negative flows during the last quarter of the year. Domestic equity funds (-$153.9 billion) were responsible for all the year’s net outflows, while nondomestic equity funds (+$93.9 billion) were able to post net gains for the year. The main contributors to the negative flows on the domestic equity side were funds in Lipper’s Large-Cap Core Funds (-$47.5 billion), Large-Cap Growth Funds (-$29.4 billion), and Equity Income Funds (-$21.8 billion) categories. Click to enlarge