Tag Archives: etf

Quant Strategies: Q1 2016 Performance

Here are the Q1 2016 total return and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2015. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below, I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices. Overall, the start of 2016 is working quite well for the various quant strategies. The utility strategy is leading the pack with a huge Q1. Only the microcap strategy is underperforming the relevant benchmarks. And that is after a great year in 2015. So not a big surprise. The staples value strategy continues to perform very well in almost every environment. I have been consistently surprised by this strategy. It’s probably due for a period of underperformance but not yet it seems. More aggressive versions of these strategies are also doing quite well. Ways to get more aggressive with these strategies are to run more concentrated portfolios, re-balance and check the portfolios more often, and in most portfolios the use of trailing stops enhances returns. A good stock and portfolio tool like portfolio123.com lets you do any of these quite easily. Also, for traders, the quant portfolios are fantastic idea generating lists for potential trades. I use them for this purpose every so often. In general, a great start to 2016 for quant strategies and much better than overall stock indexes and also the TAA strategies.

Investment Strategy: When To Sell A Stock?

By Rupert Hargreaves Deciding when to sell a stock is often a more complicated process than buying it in the first place. Indeed, holding onto a loser for too long can severely curtail long-term returns. The same can be said if you hold onto a winner for longer than needs be as a sudden shift in market sentiment might see the majority of your gains erased. With this being the case, refining your selling process is a vital part of developing your investment strategy. This is a topic the February 29 issue of Value Investor Insight looks at in an interview with Danny Bubis, Ben Ellis, Jay Hedstrom and Amar Pandya of Tetrem Capital Management , which has produced an annualized return for investors of 8.9% since 1997, vs. 7.1% for the S&P 500. When To Sell A Stock? Investment strategy: When To Sell A Stock? Tetrem seeks out companies using a value approach: beaten-down stocks reflecting an unwarranted pessimism over the persistence and sustainability of their businesses. Of course, the selling process starts when the fund first buys an investment and research on each company is focused on modelling each potential investment’s fair value on the basis of normalised earnings in the base case, bull case, and bear case and the justified multiple for earnings in each of those scenarios. When these scenarios have been calculated, the fund’s analysts assign probability weightings to each case, and then use this probability weighting to calculate the potential upside the security. Generally speaking, the fund is looking for $3 of upside for every $1 of downside. Why does Tetrem Capital use a probability-weighted fair value calculation? Well, according to Danny Bubis this approach helps the fund better frame things in terms of risk versus reward and results in better investment decisions. When it comes to selling, Tetrem’s team has decided to refine their selling process after observing that many of the fund’s missteps have involved sticking with losers too long or not letting winners run long enough. To counter these mistakes, the fund’s team is making a more concerted effort to have high conviction buys push out more marginal ideas. The key test here: if the stock in question fell 10% to 20%, would the fund step in and aggressively buy more? If the answer is no, then there could be better ideas out there. Another rule the fund has introduced is that when something happens, which puts the original investment thesis at risk, the weighting in the fund is immediately reduced to 1.5%, a normal weight the fund is around 3% – no matter what the stock price does. These two parts of the firm’s investment strategy help Tetrem manage the downside; when it comes to the upside, the fund also has a rule in place to ensure that it does not get caught out by letting a winner run too long. Upside management technique Tetrem’s upside management or profit taking method is based on its fair value probability calculation. In the interview with Value Investor Insight, one of the fund’s current positions, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) is used as an example. Originally, Tetrem acquired Microsoft when it was a beaten down by the market due to its entrenched management, reliance on PC and weakness in consumer markets. However, over the past two years, the company has transformed itself and successfully adapted to a mobile-first, cloud-first world. The stock is up 100% in five years, excluding dividends and Tetrem’s probability fair value estimate has increased alongside the stock price, as the company has grown and developed with the market, the probability of the bull case is higher, and the probability of the bear case is lower. This floating fair value probability estimate helps Tetrem’s team stick with compounders longer than it might have done without the floating calculation. Disclosure: Rupert may hold positions in one or more of the companies mentioned in this article.

The Psychology Of Investing

The longer that I’ve been at this investing thing, the more convinced I am that the difference between an average investor and a good investor is all in the mind. I’ve been investing for over 15 years now and I’ve learned a lot along the way. I think it took me the better part of a decade to work out what makes a good business and a quality investment. The much harder aspect of investing is to summon the courage to commit your capital in the face of hundreds of other people telling you otherwise. These people can be respected investment analysts, talking heads on TV, and even your own friends and family. I now have a pretty good idea of what makes my cut as a high-quality business. That tends to be a business that produces high returns on equity in excess of 20%, strong free cash flow generation and conversion of revenue to free cash flow, all combined with a strong market opportunity and rapidly growing topline growth. Now these businesses aren’t necessarily easy to find; however, when you do identify them they are easy to spot. The harder aspect of investing is to commit your capital to these high-quality opportunities that you’ve identified in the face of 101 reasons not to do so. I’ll give you an example. Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG ) is an exceptionally high-quality business with strong rates of revenue growth and good cash flow generation. However, when you look at the stock, it’s had a rough go of things over the last three months. My own purchase is down a good 10% from where I made it. There are all manner of concerns with the stock, most of which I believe will prove to be relatively immaterial over the next five years. The biggest threat is the regulation of drug pricing under the Democrats. There is also the threat that Celgene may be unsuccessful in diversifying its revenue base away from Revlimid, its chief moneymaker. All those things are likely to be unfounded. It’s not in the Democrats’ best interest to make drug discovery unattractive to commercial interests. That will just dry up funding and investment into areas of medicine that have a real human need. Celgene also managed to negotiate a deal with the generic drug manufacturer that will effectively push out its window of exclusivity to almost 2025. That’s almost 9 years for the company to explore new partnerships, invest in new R&D and acquire potential companies that can diversify its revenue base. Yet, despite of this, the company’s stock price remains stubbornly near one-year lows while other companies are now routinely making 52-week highs. I’ve committed capital to Celgene; however, I feel I twang of remorse whenever I check my trading account and see this position solidly in the red while most of my other recent growth investments are now well in the green. I was thinking further about exactly why that is in my case. I don’t think it’s an aversion to losses. Rather I believe that in general we all have a desire for positive affirmation. That’s true for us with our friends with family and even in the workplace. We all want validation that we’ve made the right choices in all aspects of my life. Unfortunately in investing, things don’t this work that way unless you happen to ride a solid growth stock that just consistently appreciates month after month and year after year. You’re not going to get positive reinforcement of your investment decision continually. If you’re looking at taking deep value positions where you have the potential for the greatest upside, you need to lose the desire for positive affirmation and that’s not easy. In fact, it’s really hard because when you see that position continuously in the red, it makes you think that others in the market know something that you don’t or that you have missed something in your analysis. Deep value investing is a pretty lonely game. Invariably it means going against the crowd in almost every bet that you make. And this is where Buffett really stands out for me . More than any other investor, he has shown a unique ability to shut out external influences on his thinking and just go with his gut conviction in purchases of American Express (NYSE: AXP ), Solomon Brothers and to a lesser extent Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ). These investments were all done at times when those companies were on the nose. American Express suffered from the effects of a salad oil scandal which effectively cut the company’s share price in half. Solomon Brothers suffered from a devastating bond trading scandal which at one point threatened it with bankruptcy. Even Coca-Cola ( KO ) looked like a business that was heading for a sustained slowdown at the point when Buffett invested, with annual revenue growth declining from 17.1% the decade earlier to just 5.2%. I look at my own current list of holdings, and there are more than a few that have suffered or are suffering through crises where investors doubt their ability to make a comeback. CochLear ( OTC:CHEOF ) was the most recent example of a situation where a devastating company event was successfully overcome by the company. Before 2011, CochLear was a high-quality, high-growth business delivering cochlear implants across the world. In fact, the business was the market leader for implants. Unfortunately in 2011, the company suffered from a product recall that sent the company’s share price down by almost 40%. When you are a healthcare company with a reputation for high quality, a product recall event could potentially be a devastating reputational blow. I recognized the opportunity and went in guns blazing . CochLear subsequently recovered lost market share and continues to grow strongly. The net result is that the share price has more than doubled from the lows that it reached during this period of crisis. However, it wasn’t smooth sailing. In fact, the company’s share price was depressed for a period of six months after I made my investment and there was more than an occasion there where I had to reflect and think about whether I’d made the right move. In more recent times, investors have been making assumptions that Chinese economic growth is going to slide to a standstill, and with that, the prospects of Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU ) and Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ), two of China’s great growth stories will be heading down the toilet. However, both these companies have such strong competitive advantages that I took the view that they will likely prosper for a long time and proceeded to buy. In less than a month, the market subsequently reassessed its view of the Chinese recession and, more importantly, the long-term prospects of Baidu and Alibaba, and I find both positions up more than 17% from where I made my initial investment. The one remaining position that I have which is a real test of my conviction in the company and its ability to overcome adversity is my investment in Chipotle (NYSE: CMG ) that I’ve written about here extensively. The company has significant problems in regaining customer confidence in relation to its E. coli and norovirus scandals. This is a play where you have to believe that customers will ultimately forget these incidents over time, and the company can bring back customer trust and reestablish its position as a provider of high-quality food. However, it’s hard to see this as a long-term outcome when you’re bombarded with images of empty stores and constant analyst downgrades and reminders of incidents on social media of customers getting ill. I look at this investment as a test of my long-term ability to pick a company that has the potential to rebound after significant negative company events, and also as a test of my ability to stick with a position whose outcome is uncertain but which has the potential for significant upside. Investing is as much a test of your character as anything else. It tests the level of conviction that you have in your research and your ideas, and it’s the ultimate test because you literally have to put your money where your mouth is and be prepared to wait a long time to see if your conviction was correctly placed. Those that have the ability to master their emotions and drown out the noise truly have the qualities to be successful long-term investors. Given his track record of making many such successful contrarian plays in the presence of significant negative events and placing large amounts of capital in these plays, I place Warren Buffett at the very top of investors with the greatest mastery of their psychology. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.