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Chinese ADRs: Index Inclusion A Key Catalyst

MSCI will include Chinese ADRs into its indices, a key positive to US-listed Chinese shares. Tech will be the biggest beneficiary with BABA, BIDU and CTRP being the three largest. Short-term trading idea: Long BABA and BIDU. Long-term fundamentals continue to favor BABA over BIDU. MSCI announced the details involving the inclusion of Chinese ADRs to its indices. This is significant in that it marks the first time the ADRs are being included in MSCI indices. Overall, 14 Chinese ADRs will be included through two rounds, with the first starting on November 30th and the second starting on June 1st of 2016. This inclusion is significant in several ways: First, the inclusion into the MSCI indices allows these ADRs to be noticed by large fund managers who can only invest in a particular index, thereby allowing them to benefit from the positive fund flows. Second, the inclusion could potentially pave the way for Chinese domestic A-shares to be included in the index. Large cap Chinese ADRs are the biggest beneficiaries of this decision, so companies such as Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ), Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU ) and Ctrip (NASDAQ: CTRP ) could see further fund flows into these stocks. Among the three largest ADRs to be included in the indices, I am positive on BABA given its attractive near- to medium-term outlook (see – Alibaba: The Best Remains The Best ) and CTRP given its industry consolidation ( Baidu And Ctrip: Tie-Up On O2O ). I am least positive on BIDU given its weaker position in the fast growing mobile payment and O2O space relative to its rivals ( Baidu: Flying Against The Bears ). Looking at the companies to be included in the MSCI China Index, it is clear that internet is the biggest beneficiary, accounting for 30% of the index. This is the first time in which a private enterprise such as BABA, rather than a state-owned enterprise (SOE), is the largest company. This also shows the transformation of the Chinese economy where private enterprises are becoming increasingly important. On the other hand, the weight of SOEs will drop to 55% from 68%, a record low. Finally, China will account for 28% of the emerging market benchmark, an improvement from 24%. Alibaba is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of this decision, accounting for 40% of the inclusion, followed by BIDU that accounts for 27%. Ctrip, NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES ) and JD.com (NASDAQ: JD ) will account for 5-7% each, but BABA will remain the most relevant with 8% of the MSCI China Index, followed by BIDU at 5%. Together, they will take the 4th and the 8th spots in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. After this inclusion, funds tracking the MSCI Emerging Market Index will be the primary fund flows that drive these ADRs. For BABA, this represents roughly 25 days of its average daily volume, whereas it is 35 days for BIDU. For New Oriental (NYSE: EDU ), it is around 92 days of its trading volume, while TAL Education (NYSE: XRS ) and NetEase could see somewhere around 50 days. Conclusion, the inclusion of Chinese ADRs in the MSCI indices is a positive to most ADRs, particularly the large caps. For my short-term trading idea, I would overweight BABA and BIDU. However, long-term fundamentals continue to favor BABA over BIDU.

TECO Energy’s (TE) CEO John Ramil on Q3 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

TECO Energy, Inc. (NYSE: TE ) Q3 2015 Earnings Conference Call November 5, 2015 9:00 AM ET Executives Mark Kane – Director of Investor Relations Sandra Callahan – Senior Vice President, Finance & Accounting and Chief Financial Officer John Ramil – President and Chief Executive Officer Analysts John Barter – KeyBanc Capital Markets Operator Good morning. My name is Brandi, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TECO Energy’s Third Quarter Results and 2015 Outdoor Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Mark Kane, you may begin your conference. Mark Kane Thank you, Brandi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the TECO Energy third quarter 2015 results conference call. Our results from continuing operations along with utilities statistical pages and the earnings release were released earlier this morning. This presentation is being webcast and our earnings release statistical summaries and slides are available on our website at tecoenergy.com. The presentation will be available for replay through the website approximately two hours after the conclusion of our presentation and will be available for 30 days. In the course of our remarks today, we will be making forward-looking statements about our expectations for 2015 results and preliminary business drivers for 2016. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that we will discuss today. For a more complete discussion of these factors, we refer you to the risk factor discussion on our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2014, and as updated in subsequent SEC filings. In the course of today’s presentation, we will be using non-GAAP results. There is a reconciliation between these non-GAAP measures and the closest GAAP measure in the appendix to today’s presentation. The host for our call today is Sandy Callahan, TECO Energy’s Chief Financial Officer. Also with us today is John Ramil, TECO Energy’s CEO. Now, I’ll turn it over to Sandy. Sandra Callahan Thank you, Mark. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. This morning I’ll cover the status of the various filings that we have made with Emera for approval of the acquisition, provide a normal quarterly update, and confirm our 2015 outlook. The appendix to the presentation contains the usual graph from the Florida and New Mexico economies and reconciliations of non-GAAP results. Since we announced the signing of the agreement with Emera in early September, we have been busy working with Emera to make the required filings in a timely manner. We filed with the FERC on October 6, and asked for approval by March. We filed with the New Mexico Commission on October 19. The commission assigned a hearing examiner yesterday and we are waiting for a final order on that and for a schedule to be established in the proceedings. We filed an initial proxy with the SEC on October 6, and subsequently filed our final proxy on October 22, with a record date of October 21. We’ve scheduled the special shareholder meeting to vote on the approval of the merger for December 3. And over the next several weeks, we expect to make the Hart-Scott-Rodino filing and the filing with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. In the third quarter, non-GAAP results from continuing operations were $77.3 million or $0.33 per share, compared with $0.32 last year. Net income from continuing operations was $64.9 million in 2015, and that includes $12.4 million of charges, primarily associated with the pending acquisition by Emera. We closed the sale of TECO Coal this quarter, so I’m not including a report on discontinued operations in my quarterly update. There is a report on discontinued operations included in our earnings release. For the first nine months of the year, non-GAAP results from continuing operations were $203.6 million or $0.87 per share, compared with $0.84 last year. Net income from continuing operations was $190.2 million, compared with $179 million last year. In addition to the cost this year associated with the Emera transaction, both years include costs associated with the New Mexico Gas acquisition, $1.2 million integration costs in 2015, and $5.7 million of acquisition costs in 2014. Tampa Electric reported higher net income in the third quarter. Customer growth was a strong 1.8%, while energy sales were slightly lower than last year, reflecting degree days that were fairly normal, but rainfall in July and August that was 60% above normal. Base revenues in the quarter benefited from the increase that became effective November 1 of last year per the 2013 regulatory stipulation. And AFUDC increased this quarter with higher investment balances in the Polk conversion project and other qualified projects. Peoples Gas saw another quarter of 2% customer growth, again with the strongest numbers in the southwest and northeast areas of the state. Both customer and economic growth contributed to higher firm sales to retail customers, as well as transported for power generation customers and off-system sales were higher also, reflecting more coal-to-gas switching, as well as new generating facilities coming online. The local economy continues to do very well. And it was helped in the first nine months of the year by a very strong tourist industry that benefited from Chamber of Commerce weather, the hockey finals, and new international flights at Tampa International Airport. As an indicator of that, hotel bed pack collections in the Tampa area set records in the fiscal year ended September 20, 2015, with numbers 13% higher than 2014, which also was a record year. New Mexico Gas Company recorded a seasonal loss in the third quarter, always the weakest revenue quarter, because of the absence of heating load. Again this quarter, we saw the positive impact on O&Million, both from integration synergies being realized and an overall focus on cost reduction. Customer growth was 0.8% in the quarter. And to provide some perspective on that, in the first full quarter that we owned New Mexico Gas, which was the fourth quarter of last year, customer growth was half that at 0.4%. The other net segment formerly known as Parent/Other had a net cost in the third quarter that was lower compared to last year, due to some unfavorable tax items that were in 2014. Results also reflect interest expense at New Mexico Gas Intermediate, the parent of New Mexico Gas Company. And we only had one month of that interest in the 2014 period. And finally, the lower interest expense from a refinancing earlier this year more than offset the impact of no longer allocating interest expense to TECO Coal. The Florida economy continues to be a good story. Statewide unemployment at the end of the third quarter was 5.2%, down from 5.8% a year ago. And over that period, the state has added more than 236,000 new jobs. Hillsborough County, Tampa Electric’s primary service territory once again outpaced the state and U.S. levels with unemployment down to 4.8%, a full percent below where it was a year ago. Over the past year, the Tampa-St. Petersburg area added more than 28,000 jobs. A nice development in the local employment picture is an increase in the number of higher paying science, technology, engineering and math, or STEM jobs in the Tampa Bay area. According to a Bloomberg study, Tampa has more than 64,000 STEM jobs, representing more than 5% of the workforce. And that is the highest number and percentage among Florida’s major metropolitan areas. Growth in construction-related jobs in Tampa is being driven by record numbers and record values for building permits. In the 2015 fiscal year that just ended, the City of Tampa issued more than 23,000 building permits. Single family, multi-family and commercial, both new construction and modification, with a value of $2.4 billion. Those numbers represent a 20% increase from 2014, which also was a record year. Aggressive economic development efforts have brought almost 12,000 new jobs to the area over the past three years, including a number of higher paying professional and high-tech jobs. In New Mexico, the unemployment rate never came close to the levels we saw in Florida, because of the large presence of the oil and gas industry and governmental facilities in the state. Improvement though, has been slower than what we have experienced in Florida. And in September, the unemployment rate ticked up, primarily due to a slowdown in construction employment. Net job growth in New Mexico was 6,400 over the past year, a number impacted by some job losses in the oil and gas industry as a result of the recent movements in energy prices. The largest gains came in the education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business service categories. The Albuquerque area, which constitutes almost 50% of the state’s non-farm payroll, led the state in job creation, adding 6,600 jobs over the year and offsetting net job losses in some of the less populace areas. On the housing front, the good story in the Tampa area continues, with more than 5,800 new single-family building permits issued over the past 12 months, and existing homes continuing to sell at a strong pace. The October Case-Shiller report shows that selling prices in the Tampa market increased 6.1% year over year. With the strong pace of resale, the housing inventory remains at a healthy level of less than four months. In Albuquerque, New Mexico’s largest metro area, existing home resales have trended up steadily over the past year. There was a very strong acceleration in recent months, including a 33% year-over-year increase in June, and 26% in September. Selling prices have also trended up, and the inventory of homes available for resale is just under five months. You can see all of these trends on the graphs in the appendix. Our assumptions around guidance that we provided previously remain unchanged. We are maintaining our previously provided guidance for 2015 earnings per share from continuing operations in a range of $1.08 to $1.11, excluding non-GAAP charges or gains. We still expect New Mexico Gas to be accretive to our full-year earnings, but it has been a challenge to overcome the very mild winter weather that started the year. We had great results on a cost side, and that is helping to offset the impact of disappointing first quarter weather. But we do need some normal cold winter weather to close out the year. Looking forward to next year, all indications are that we should continue to see strong customer growth at all three of the utilities. We expect the Florida utilities to earn towards the upper end of the respective return on equity ranges shown on the slide. Tampa Electric AFUDC earnings will grow next year, as the investment in the Polk conversion project reaches its peak. And in addition, a $5 million base revenue increase became effective November 1 of this year as a result of the 2013 settlement agreement. All of the utilities expect to record higher depreciation expense as a result of continued investment in equipment and facilities to serve customers. And of course, across the board, we will continue to be very focused on holding the line on cost. Our upcoming investor communication schedule includes being at EEI next week, where we will participate jointly with Emera in one-on-one meetings, and also we will be a part of Emera’s presentation at 10:30 on Tuesday morning. After the Emera acquisition announcement, we’ve been asked if we would continue to have quarterly conference calls. Because of the timing of EEI next week and our activities there, we decided to have a call this quarter. But future calls will be on an as-needed basis only. And now I’ll turn it over to the operator to open the line for your questions. Thank you. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Barter with KeyBanc. John Barter Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I guess looking in New Mexico, has the hearing examiner — do you have any expectation around when the hearing examiner will have a recommendation? Sandra Callahan The first thing that has to happen is, the hearing examiner will set a schedule for the proceeding. And we will then go through that process, and the hearing examiner recommendation really comes at the end of that process. Mark Kane One thing to remember, the New Mexico regulatory calendar, there is a PNM rate case, there is a Southwest Public Service rate case, and there is a whole PNM San Juan process also running concurrent with our process, so the commission has a very full calendar. John Barter All right, got it. And then I guess in Florida with the whole solar issue — is it Floridians for Solar Choice and then Consumers for Smart Solar — have either of those initiatives got the necessary amount of signatures to get on the 2016 ballot yet, or is that still progressing? John Ramil No. This a John Ramil. Neither one have gotten the signatures yet. They are both being acquired as we speak. John Barter Okay. Thank you. Operator [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Mark Kane Okay. Brandi, thank you very much. Thank you all for joining us this morning. If there are no further questions, this concludes TECO Energy’s third quarter call. Thank you. Operator This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. 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What Should ‘Risk On’ Mean For You?

Summary Evidence suggests that in many quarters, a “risk on” phase of investing sentiment is afoot. The kinds of risks being taken suggest to me that we are in the later stages of a favorable stock market environment. Nevertheless, the U.S. economy seems to me to be basically sound, which makes a negative market event in the near future relatively unlikely. Still, there are enough ways that a negative market event could be triggered that a level of caution – rather than throwing oneself into the risk-on fever – is advisable. On November 2, 2015, The Wall Street Journal brought us flashing signs that the markets have entered a new “risk on” phase. Cam Hui predicted this a few of weeks ago, and now the mainstream press is confirming the trend. Here is one of Cam’s excellent slides focusing on the markets in 2011 and how fear and greed come and go: (click to enlarge) Cam’s slide shows sentiment in the market yees and yaws has little relation to fundamentals. The Wall Street Journal shows risk on The WSJ’s November 2 risk on coverage included these three Page One articles (Note: The headlines here are from The Journal ‘s print edition): In my opinion, these all are signs that financial markets are taking on increased risks. And usually they would be signs that trouble is ahead. Of course trouble always is ahead-somewhere, some time. To say that trouble is ahead helps very little. The problem for investors is whether the time is proximate and the place is wherever they are invested. But before we get to the ‘when and where” hard part, let’s be sure we understand how risk builds up and how certain kinds of institutions react to the forces that impel risk-taking. The role of international funds flows External debt almost always is involved in the build-up of asset values that crash. Robert Aliber, Chicago Booth School professor emeritus, explains how this works in the sixth and seventh editions of Charles Kindelberger’s classic Manias, Crashes and Panics , of which he is the author. Even if you have read Kindelberger’s earlier editions, Professor Aliber’s opening chapters are worth your time. We can trace external buying of debt, often in currencies that are different from the currency of the country whose entities are incurring the debt, as important parts of the crises in, for example, Latin American debt in the 1980s, the Mexican peso crisis of 1994, the Asian contagion crises of 1997, and the U.S., Ireland, Iceland, Spain and Greece problems beginning in 2007. I ascribe this phenomenon in part due to foreigners’ unfamiliarity with local markets. The foreign money is dumb money, I say. And it goes abroad when it is seeking better yields (and is unable to evaluate the risks properly) or simply has too much cash that it cannot invest at home (Eurodollar recycling by U.S. banks in the late 1970s, for example). I have not convinced Professor Aliber that my “dumb foreign money” theory is correct. He thinks macroeconomic forces are more likely the origin of the international capital flows. Maybe both forces are at work. Whichever (or whatever) the origins, the historical record suggests that we should be wary when we see large international capital flows, especially when the borrower cannot print and does not naturally trade in the currency borrowed. Foreign adventures by domestic players We also know that when certain kinds of institutions that have little international experience open offices and make investments in unfamiliar nations, the jig soon will be up. Within about three years, the flaws in their strategy will begin to appear. The German Landesbanks are perfect subjects for this test because they were established by the state and are owned by the state to serve purposes that became unnecessary decades ago. (I explained this in my book Debt Spiral .) Therefore they are always looking for new ways to make money. The Landesbanks were prominent victims of that tendency in the 2007-2009 market events. They were, if you recall, among the first banks to get into trouble in August 2007 because of their Ireland-based, U.S.-invested SIVs. Punters’ success lauded When the financial press starts lauding the successes that risk-takers are having, such as those that buy out-of-the-money Brazilian and Russian bonds, that is anther sign of trouble ahead because people will emulate the apparent successes at precisely the wrong times. Such games work if you can get out fast enough. But the door is not large, and it closes swiftly. Nevertheless, the WSJ reports that “fund managers are trying to manage those risks by staying nimble, rather than holding positions for an extended period which could be hurt by sudden market downturns.” Good luck. Record bond issuance but not much actual investment The WSJ touts the healthy corporate bond market as a sign of a strong U.S. economy. I do not think the economy is weak, but I do not think the strong bond market is such a good sign. What is the money being used for? It is being used largely for stock buybacks and acquisitions. Using debt for those purposes weakens the U.S. economy over the long term because it makes more companies fragile in downturns. And it tends to support stock market prices at levels that naturally decline when the flood of acquisitions and stock buybacks eases. Debt for productive investment can be a positive, but debt that mostly reduces the float of common stock serves no beneficial purposes that I can see, other than those of management and shorter-term stockholders. It is not something to celebrate as indicative of a strong economy. It is indicative of low interest rates, the reach for yield, and the temptation to replace equity with debt. Deal volume Another sign of a long-in-the-tooth market is deal volume. The deal volume in this case goes hand-in-hand with debt issuance. The deals mostly are designed to reduce competition, which may be good for corporate profits but is bad for the economy as a whole. And it indicates that companies do not see organic growth in their futures, which is not a sign of strength. Most companies do not sell out or pay up to acquire when they see bright futures for their independent selves. But don’t get carried away, please Don’t listen to scare-mongering, however. The FT had a particularly egregious article on November 2, in which the writers explored the possibility of a market meltdown caused by investors fleeing balanced mutual funds because the bond market was going down. That is preposterous stuff foisted by the big banks that want lower capital and the right to trade freely for their own accounts. The FT writers are particularly susceptible to this bilge; I do not know why. Balanced open-end funds are safer than houses, so long as they are not leveraged. The U.S. economy is OK I think the U.S. economy, despite all the negatives that I have listed for the future of capital markets, is OK. Neil Irwin had an interesting piece on The New York Times Upshot site last week in which he said he was undecided about whether the U.S. economy was OK or not. As I read the article, he really came out that the economy, despite all the negative signs, is OK. (If you haven’t read it, it is worth a look.) And that is where I come out. At the end of 2012, I wrote on seekingalpha that I was optimistic about the U.S. economy through 2015. Here we are almost at the end of 2015, and without going into detail here, I remain optimistic for the near future. Continued slow growth seems likely. We seem likely to have neither the great strides in productivity nor the large working population increase that might lead to faster growth. And I do not expect the government to begin any historic spending sprees. But the downside negatives almost all emanate from abroad, and the U.S. economy has been dealing with foreign negatives for the entire time it has slowly recovered since 2009. When, where, how? So much for the easy stuff. When, where, how will a negative market event occur? “Why” is not for us to know. “When where, and how” is hard enough. If I really knew when, where, and how, I would be a very rich man. Since I am not a very rich man, we must presume that I do not know. But thinking about such things concentrates the mind. And if you think about this question along with me, I think you will clarify your own views. The relative status quo could go on for quite a long time. And I do not expect the downside stimulus to come from China in the near future. Even though I think China is in for some rocky times, I think the Chinese government and economy will be able to handle them. I have written about that at nexchange.com, where I publish short pieces weekly. But weak credits have attracted too much money and stock markets are priced high largely because of low interest rates. Both those factors would be quite vulnerable to a material increase in interest rates. But I do not think the Fed is going increase rates significantly. There is no reason to do so. A discursion on monetary policy I do not regard myself as an expert on monetary policy, but so many commentators talk about it without meeting that requirement, why shouldn’t I? I do a lot of reading and even correspond with some macroeconomists. It seems to me that for the Fed to raise rates in order to have room to lower them again when a recession occurs lacks logic. The U.S. economy is in slow-growth mode. If it could stay there for an extended period of time without a recession, that would be a good thing. Therefore monetary policy should encourage continued growth, if possible without encouraging credit bubbles. I take that to suggest a monetary policy that is neutral, by which I mean a policy that permits the market to set rates to the extent possible. If the “natural” rate of interest is about zero, then policy should permit rates to remain near zero. And there is considerable evidence that the natural rate (economists call it the Wicksellian rate) is near (or even below) zero. Why raise the rate artificially, which may cause a recession, merely to have the “firepower” to lower it again? On this subject, let me share an interesting graph from Bill Longbrake’s monthly letter that is published by my friends at the Barnett, Sivon & Natter law firm: (click to enlarge) The chart is hard to read, but the data are important. What they show is that the Fed and some other major forecasters (the BofA and Goldman Sachs forecasters that Bill follows every month) are expecting a Fed Funds rate of 3% or more by 2018. If that is going to happen, then I think bad things are going to happen to the U.S. economy and to the U.S. stock market by 2017. Fortunately, Bill Longbrake disagrees. He forecasts close to a zero Fed funds rate still in 2018, and Bill has a better forecasting record than the Fed. I am sticking with Bill on this, but please recognize that we seem to be in the minority and that our being wrong could have significant negative consequences. What might cause a negative market event? Regardless of what the Fed does, I think we will see is some of the risky bets not paying off, the weak credits being unable to refinance, as well as a rise in bankruptcies and delinquencies that already have been occurring over the last year in the energy sector. Many parts of the global economy have depended on the energy sector to buy their products. They are likely also to experience problems, and it is likely that they, like the energy companies, borrowed heavily to expand their capacity quickly and that their creditors also will suffer. U.S. housing remains expensive. Here is a graph of real house prices through August 2015 from Calculated Risk. (click to enlarge) As you can see, house prices are almost back where they were at the top of the boom in 2005-6, with middle class incomes having barely budged since 1999. As I wrote in a lengthy article back in February 2012, housing cannot lead the economy until house prices are affordable for the middle class. In that article, I saw 1997 as a benchmark year when house prices were still affordable in terms of incomes. But house prices now are even more above the 1997 level than they were in 2012, with barely any progress in middle class incomes. Houses are more affordable than they otherwise would be because interest rates are low and heating oil costs have declined. But house prices remain a problem, and household formation and the healthy consumer expenditures that follow that are deterred by the high prices of houses, as well as by student loan balances, a lower marriage rate, and several other economic and social forces. Some respected forecasters say household formation is picking up. So far, I do not see it. A decline in house prices therefore would be a mixed event. It might stir household formation, but it also might cause another round of foreclosures, particularly on properties that have little equity (which means just about everything financed by the FHA), and it might have a negative “wealth effect”. A big change from my thinking a couple of years ago is that whereas in February 2013 I saw rising capital flows propelling global stock prices higher, I now think global capital flows are reversing. That means liquidity most likely will not continue its upward thrust. These various cautions suggest that the U.S. stock market will not produce large returns over the next year or two. But will something cause a major disruption in the next year or two? I am starting to think that is not likely. I have no better crystal ball than anyone else, but I do not see a catalyst on the horizon. The major suspects would be politically or geopolitically unsettling. For example, both parties in the U.S. have enough dumb ideas that, if adopted, one of them could have negative economic consequences sufficient to cause a recession. Or a trigger-happy president could find reasons to do foolish things. Or the Fed could raise rates at a pace that would knock the value foundation out from under the stock market. I am hopeful that American public officials will see the difficulties and not score an “own goal”. A few days ago, I published A Portfolio for the Next Market Crash-Revisited . In that article, I discussed my February 2013 prediction that a negative market event likely would occur in the next five years and that we are now half way through that period. I concluded that I had not changed my investment strategy as a result of events over the last two and a half years. Even though I am suggesting today that I do not think a market event is likely in the next two years, I remain convinced that, at least for investors over, say, age 50, prudent portfolio management indicates being somewhat protective even while maintaining an optimistic outlook. “Risk-on” may be fine for traders. For longer-term investors, it is best not to be tempted at this point in the cycle. Of course, if you’ve really gotta have that new Porsche Panamera, and you only have a spare $40,000…