Tag Archives: economy

Global Wealth And The Long-Term Investor

How wealthy has China become? At last count, the country accounted for a full 8 percent of all global ultra-high net worth investors (UHNWIs) – those worth more than $50 million. What will those UHNWIs do with that newfound wealth? That’s an important question, because household wealth is a key driver of consumers’ consumption and investment decisions as well as entrepreneurial activity, and that holds true whether one is Chinese, American, or otherwise. China and the United States led the world in wealth creation over the past year, while other countries saw their relative wealth decline as a stronger dollar reduced the value of many assets denominated in local currencies. In its sixth Global Wealth Report, the Credit Suisse Research Institute provides a comprehensive view of household and per capita wealth all over the world. In research derived from that report, analysts give several key takeaways for investors with a long-term focus. USA Leads Wealth Creation… American household wealth grew by $4.6 trillion to $86 trillion between mid-year 2014 and mid-year 2015, an increase of 4.5 percent per adult. Average American net worth is $352,996, 21 percent higher than before the financial crisis, but the country’s median net worth is just $49,787 – with the gaping difference between the two explained by the fact that the U.S. has a high proportion of the world’s wealthiest people. The United States has 15.6 million millionaires – nearly half the global total – and is home to 48 percent of the world’s 123,800 ultra-high net-worth individuals. China has the second-highest share, the aforementioned 8 percent. Investment implications : Demand for the services of U.S. money managers is likely to continue growing, as will spending on higher-end brands such as Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL ), Phillips Van-Heusen, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ). … But the Middle Class Is Squeezed Here’s the flip side of the above: By Credit Suisse’s definition, some 38 percent of American households are middle class (wealth between $50,000 and $500,000), but they control just 20 percent of the wealth. Only Singapore, and Switzerland show similar disparities. In Switzerland, for example, the middle class comprises 44.5 percent of the population, but controls just 20 percent of the wealth. In addition, the global middle class has yet to fully recover from the major hit it absorbed during the financial crisis. Between 2000 and 2007, 267 million people joined the middle class. Between mid-year 2007 and mid-year 2008, 115 million people dropped right back out again. Since 2008, the middle class has grown by just 26 million people. What’s more, the amount of wealth that the global middle class controls has grown much more slowly in the wake of the financial crisis than it did beforehand, and members of the European and African middle class are still poorer than they were before the financial crisis. In other words, the global middle class is smaller than it was a decade ago, and the relative importance of the middle class to the overall economy in the U.S. and a few other places is falling. Recent gains in wealth have been concentrated disproportionately among the already wealthy, as opposed to the middle class. In the United States, Credit Suisse says the middle class share of wealth is being “squeezed by the exceptionally high wealth of the 12 percent of adults above middle class.” Investment implications : As middle class consumers in the United States see their share of overall wealth decline, companies that appeal to value-conscious consumers – Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Dollar General (NYSE: DG ), Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN ), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ), and more – should continue to be popular. Watch the Emerging Middle Some middles are different than others. While the middle class in America (and much of the developed world) has seen its share of the national wealth decline, those in the middle of the road in emerging markets are enjoying the opposite, with their combined net worth accounting for a growing percentage of the total in their respective countries. The global middle class has grown from 524 million households in 2000 to 664 million in 2015, a 27 percent increase. Some 41 percent of them live in emerging markets, where the ranks of the middle class grew 3.3 percent a year between 2000 and 2015, compared to 1.34 percent in the U.S. China now has a larger middle class than the United States – 109 million people to 92 million. In Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, the middle class controls a disproportionately large share of wealth. India ranks among the most extreme examples, and the 3 percent of the households that qualify as middle class own 23 percent of the country’s wealth. In Mexico, 17 percent of households are middle class, but they account for 40 percent of the country’s wealth. Investment implications : In countries where middle-class consumers play an outsize role in the economy, investors would do well to think about how to capitalize on their wants and needs. Because the recent appreciation of the dollar has diminished the spending power of middle-class households in the developing world, Credit Suisse suggests that investors steer clear of global luxury goods companies in favor of local brands, particularly technology or service sector companies, such as the Samsung Group’s Shilla Hotel and Resorts ( OTC:HSLLF ), Chinese Internet company Tencent ( OTCPK:TCEHY ), MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI ) (an Argentinian eBay), Indonesian retailer Matahari Department Store ( OTC:PTMSY ), and Mexican media giant Televisa (NYSE: TV ). Don’t Be Fooled By China’s Wobble According to the Credit Suisse Research Institute, there’s only one word to describe China’s wealth accumulation: Relentless. Since 2000, China’s per capita wealth has quadrupled to $22,513, and the country has more than a million millionaires. As of June 2015, its total household wealth of $22.8 trillion trailed only that of the U.S. That said, a year-long boom, in which Chinese stocks rose 150 percent, came to a spectacular end just a month later. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 25 percent since the end of June, and the Chinese government devalued the renminbi over the summer, eroding the international purchasing power of its citizens. But stocks account for just 10 percent of overall household wealth in China, and the country also has a high personal savings rate. In other words, it’s not about to fall off the global wealth podium anytime soon. Investment implications : China took just 15 years to grow from $6.3 trillion worth of wealth to $23 trillion – an achievement that took the United States 33 years, between 1939 and 1972. Credit Suisse predicts that Chinese wealth will continue to grow at a rate of 9.4 percent a year over the next five years, at which time the country’s population will be as wealthy as the U.S. was in 1988. Investors should seek out those companies best positioned to sate China’s growing consumer appetite over the long haul. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

If You Like Inner Beauty, This Is Your Dividend ETF

Summary DVY offers a solid dividend yield of 3.27%, but the real beauty goes much deeper. The holdings in the top 10 look excellent and reflect a great portfolio. The sector allocations are even better and include high allocations to sectors that are often ignored in high dividend yield ETFs. The iShares Select Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DVY ) looks great. After readers suggested I take a look at the portfolio, I decided it was time to dive inside and see what I could find. This is a great ETF. Investors may quibble on whether the allocations are perfect or merely good, but there is far more to like than to hold against the fund. Expense Ratio The expense ratio is .39%. That is by far the biggest challenge for the fund because the rest of the fund is simply great. Holdings Investors should always look to the holdings as part of the process in making the decisions. Who doesn’t like this allocation? We have Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM ) at the number 2 slot. That looks like a good dividend bet to me. I’m not a fan of their products, but I am I fan of the revenue and earnings they can generate with those products. That can be a tricky situation, but in the investment mindset I just can’t toss away the opportunity to have companies with highly addictive products. We see McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD ) at the number 4 slot. The case for McDonald’s is fairly similar. I don’t love the product that they were creating over the last several years, but I do love the way the restaurant leverages their real estate and enormous size to generate great economies of scale. We also have Kimberly Clark Corp (NYSE: KMB ) and Clorox (NYSE: CLX ) in the top ten. While I don’t cover these companies on an individual basis, it is encouraging to see three entries for consumer staples in the top holdings of the ETF. You look a little further down the list and you see Nextera Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE ) leading a batch of three utilities. For comparison sake, I’ve often looked into defensive ETFs or high dividend yield ETFs and seen utilities only composing 0% to 5% of the portfolio. Since I like dividend ETFs to be stuffed with companies that can sell their product regardless of the economic environment, the utility sector is a great fit. Sector Allocations The next chart breaks down the sector allocations across the entire ETF and the choices are beautiful. I looked at this chart and knew I was going to like the ETF right away. Assuming proper diversification across individual companies, this is just a wonderful sector allocation. The utility sector comes in very heavy at 33% of the portfolio which is great for investors that care about getting strong sustainable dividends. I assume that is the only reason anyone is interested in this ETF. The dividend yield is currently running 3.27% and I’d be fairly confident in that dividend being maintained and growing over time. Consumer Staples Besides utilities, I’m very fond of the consumer staples sector since these are companies that are designed to whether the downturn in the economy. The products they sell can hold up remarkably well during down economies and it is the presence of reliable sales that helps a company survive the hard times. Between the consumer staples and utilities sector we have almost 45% of the portfolio. Information Technology This is a really shocking one for me. The allocation here is only 1.51%. For many dividend focused ETFs an allocation that larger or larger is given to Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) alone. On the other hand, MSFT currently only yields around 2.67% so I can see the smaller allocations. Broad market ETFs tend to be fairly heavy on information technology, so I’m just fine with seeing a lower weight for a dividend focused ETF. Investors using the iShares Select Dividend ETF as one part of their portfolio should be able to benefit from the diversification advantages of the different sector weights. What to Add I don’t like to be heavily overweight on information technology, but if an investor is using this as the core of the portfolio then I think it would be wise to use a small allocation to a broad market ETF or a very small allocation specifically to the information technology sector. The other place that I would consider adding a bit is the health care industry. There is plenty of demand for their goods and services from the baby boomer population. If an investor happens to be a baby boomer and plan to retire on the dividends, it would be nice to own part of the company that makes the medication they will want. If prices go up and profits soar, those investors should see higher dividends to offset the higher costs they are facing in their daily lives. I wouldn’t mind adding a little bit more exposure on consumer staples either, but that can be considered a personal preference thing. I would love to see this allocation running closer to 20% which would lead to utilities and consumer staples exceeding 50% of the portfolio when combined. That sounds like a nice secure dividend to me. Conclusion The expense ratio is a bit high for my taste, but the portfolio is beautiful. From the individual companies selected to the sector allocations, there is far more to like about this portfolio than to dislike. I think some investors putting in new money might seek ways to replicate the portfolio through a combination of lower fee ETFs, but it is a testament to the design of the ETF that it would be worth looking into those strategies. If the expense ratio dropped down to around .10% to .14%, it would come in as a solid 10/10.