Tag Archives: dividend

Otter Tail Corporation: Reaffirmed Guidance Leading To Next Dividend Bump

Otter Tail Corporation reported 2015 third quarter earnings on November 2, 2015. Guidance for the full year was reaffirmed. Recent events introduce both support and uncertainty for Otter Tail’s near-term future earnings. Otter Tail’s dividend growth history points to another increase in February 2016. Otter Tail Corporation (NASDAQ: OTTR ), a diversified electric utility, started the year a tad slow. In the first quarter, the company lowered its full-year guidance. The second quarter brought an unofficial bump in the full-year projections. On November 2nd, the company reported 2015 third quarter earnings and officially confirmed its unofficial guidance bump. Full-year earnings per share is still expected to be in the middle to upper half of the $1.50 to $1.65 range. In other words, EPS for 2015 is expected to be $1.57 to $1.65. The company’s overall target is for the utility segment to deliver 75% to 85% of total earnings while the manufacturing segment delivers 15% to 25%. Like many utility companies, Otter Tail pays an attractive dividend – $1.23 annually. Its strategy is to allocate the utility segment’s earnings in support of the dividend. Its manufacturing segment’s earnings are intended to cover corporate costs and drive share price appreciation. For the third quarter, the utility segment earned $0.34 per share exceeding the dividend payment of $0.3075. The manufacturing segment earned $0.15 per share exceeding the corporate costs of $0.07. Year-to-date, the utility segment has earned $0.91 per share trailing the year-to-date dividends of $0.9225. The manufacturing segment has earned $0.40 which is $0.24 ahead of corporate costs of $0.16. Third quarter results revealed both support and uncertainty for full-year projections and Otter Tail’s near-term future. In support of its long-term goals, on September 1st, Otter Tail acquired Impulse Manufacturing. Impulse is located in Dawsonville, Georgia. The metal fabricator will join Otter Tail’s BTD Manufacturing segment. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to earnings in 2016. In 2014, Impulse generated $27 million in revenue compared to BTD’s $219.6 million. On August 3rd, the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) published its final Clean Power Plan. The fully-implemented plan is designed to reduce carbon dioxide in machines from power plants by 30% of 2005 levels. Otter Tail believes the final Section 111(d) rule was a major change from the proposed rule. Its initial analysis showed the impacts to Otter Tail were improved under the final rule as compared to the proposed rule. Compliance begins in 2022 and must be complete before 2030. States must submit plans for approval by September 2016 and must receive approval by September 2018. Otter Tail is working with South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota to determine a framework and plan for each state’s compliance. At this point, Otter Tail is encouraged regarding its plant in South Dakota, concerned regarding the required addition of renewable energy in North Dakota and expecting its planned retirement of a plant in Minnesota to aid in compliance. Overall, the company expects the legislation to create increases in the costs of generation for its customers. Regarding renewable energy, the plan establishes eligibility dates: “Incremental emission reduction measures, such as RE and demand-side EE, can be recognized as part of state plans, but only for the emission reductions they provide during a plan performance period. Specifically, this means that measures installed in any year after 2012 are considered eligible measures under this final rule, but only the quantified and verified MWh of electricity generation or electricity savings that they produce in 2022 and future years, may be applied toward adjusting a CO2 emission rate.” In North Dakota, Otter Tail expects the state to have to add a substantial amount of wind power. In 2013, South Dakota was producing more than 25% of its electricity from wind. Minnesota will require 25% of its electricity to be generated from wind by 2025. Finally, Otter Tail’s third quarter information mentions a potential impact to earnings before year-end. “Should the federal government change current tax law before the end of 2015, the corporation’s consolidated earnings guidance could be negatively impacted in the range of $0.02 to $0.04 per share.” Considering there are $0.08 in the range of $1.57 to $1.65, the potential negative impact could be absorbed and Otter Tail would still meet its own projections. The company has earned $1.15 per share in the first nine months of 2015. Therefore, Otter Tail’s fourth quarter must deliver $0.42 to $0.50 in EPS. Since Otter Tail is a “winter-peaking” utility, achieving full-year guidance should not be a problem. The company’s dividend yield is healthier than other diversified utility companies. With full-year guidance reaffirmed, the stability of Otter Tail’s dividend is also presumed. Prior to 2009, the company increased its dividend for 33 consecutive years. In February of both 2014 and 2015, Otter Tail reestablished the tradition. February, 2016 should yield yet another increase.

Buy Consolidated Edison For The 4.13% Dividend And Solid Fundamentals

The company was named a top 25 SAFE dividend stock in most recent “DividendRank” report. The dividend has been growing for the past 40 years. Solid fundamentals and a payout ratio of only 64% make the dividend look extremely safe going forward. Consolidate Edison (NYSE: ED ) also known as Con Ed, is one of the largest investor owned energy companies in the United States with nearly $13 billion in revenue and a market cap of $18 billion. The company offers a very nice 4.13% dividend that has been increasing for the last 40 years . The dividend was named a top 25 SAFE dividend by the prestigious “DividendRank” report . While the above may not be a good enough reason to invest the stock buy itself, when paired with the company’s rock solid fundamentals, an overall picture of safety and high yield emerges. The stock is currently trading at 15 times earnings, 1.4 times sales, and 1.4 times book value. These are very conservative numbers that show the stock is fairly valued and has limited downside even in the event of a severe market downturn (which would make the yield go through the roof). In addition to the reasonable price of the stock are the solid profit margin, return on equity, and even revenue growth to go along with it. The company is earning a profit margin of 8.67%, which is about average for the industry. The return on equity is 8.53%, which is a little below average , but still just fine with all of the other aspects of the company performing well. The most recent earnings report even showed quarterly YoY revenue increasing by 1.67%, which means the company is growing, albeit slowly. Furthermore, the payout ratio is only 64%, which is one of the reasons the dividend looks so safe. Most high yielding companies have much higher payout ratios . The great thing about a solid dividend stock like ED is its defensive nature during a bear market. While a rate hike is expected to hurt dividend stocks generally due to the fact that higher interest rates make bonds relatively more attractive, it will take years for rates to gradually return to normal, so the fear of one small hike by the Fed, which may not happen for many more months, is overblown. Furthermore, a utility company like ED is more stable than a typical run of the mill dividend stock, so if you’re worried about a market downturn, you really can’t get any safer than a leading utility company that pays a dividend over 4%. Finally, the stock recently dropped over 5% in one day when it just barely underperformed quarterly earnings expectations (they earned $1.45 a share when the market expected $1.48). I look at this as an opportunity to get some discounted shares rather than a sign that investors should be concerned. This is a good example of the market overreacting negatively to good results simply because they missed expectations slightly. I expect the stock to slowly recover over the next quarter while I collect the nice dividend in the interim.

DON: A Typical Mid-Cap ETF Presented As A Dividend ETF

Summary DON offers a dividend yield of 2.45%. It just isn’t high enough to make me think of this as a compelling dividend investment. The individual company allocations are reasonable for preventing diversifiable risk. The expense ratio is simply too high for my tastes. The sector allocation strikes me as being too volatile. Looking at historical performance confirms the higher volatility of the fund. It delivered great performance, but it was compensation for risk. The WisdomTree MidCap Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DON ) is a weird fund that doesn’t quite seem to go together for me. I’ve seen quite a few good dividend ETFs lately and started to wonder if my standards were simply slipping. It seems I was just due for finding one that didn’t work for me. Expenses The expense ratio is a .38%. This is quite a bit too high for my tastes. Dividend Yield The dividend yield is currently running 2.45%. Is that really a dividend ETF? I’m not convinced so far. Am I just having a grumpy night? Who knows, but I’m expecting dividend yields to exceed 2.5% even in this low interest rate environment. Some of my ETF holdings have yields over 2.5% without any emphasis on the dividend yield. Holdings I put grabbed the following chart to demonstrate the weight of the top 10 holdings: (click to enlarge) The thing I do love about these allocations are that the diversification across individual companies is excellent. There are very few companies with a weight higher than 1%, so any scandal event would be unlikely to cost an investor a substantial portion of their portfolio. I do like seeing Coach (NYSE: COH ) as a top holding and I certainly don’t mind their dividend yield being greater than 4%. The question may be how many low dividend holdings are included in the fund to drive the fund yield below 2.5%? Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT ) has a dividend yield greater than 6%. I’ll have to admit that when the dividend yield gets that high I have to start questioning the sustainability of the dividend. I prefer dividend growth to always be positive. Negative growth just doesn’t offer the same appeal. Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI ) is another solid yielding stock at 3.55% and they recently delivered a solid earnings beat from their “OG TO GO” program which allows customers to pick up food from Olive Garden to go. The program is excellent because it allows the company to expand the volume of sales without requiring substantial capital expenditures in new seating areas. Lately quite a few of the restaurants I cover have been trying to figure out how to deal with increased traffic because they just don’t have enough seating room. Of course, it is possible to handle that problem by raising prices but the competitive nature of the casual restaurant industry is incredibly fierce to companies that opt to give customers less value for their money. Sectors (click to enlarge) I don’t like it. That’s got to be one of the most frank assessments you’ve heard on sector allocations and it is precisely accurate. I really don’t like this sector allocation whatsoever for a dividend ETF. There is a very heavy emphasis on financials and consumer discretionary. The allocation to utilities is nice at 13%, and I don’t mind industrials at 14.04%, but I’d rather see financials and consumer discretionary at the bottom of the list. I’d like to see consumer staples and health care with heavy allocations. Neither of them got the nod. There is nothing wrong with this sector allocation for a typical mid-cap ETF , but I’d rather see it named along those lines. Generally speaking I find the mid-cap space to be more volatile than the large cap space and I’d rather feel that the holdings within that part of the market were going to be safer holdings. That makes me double down on the importance of using heavy allocations to consumer staples. This portfolio is designed in such a manner that makes it simply feel too risky for investors that are focused on dividends and growing their portfolio. I wouldn’t mind it as a simple “mid-cap” ETF, but it doesn’t work as a dividend ETF for me. When I ran a regression on the returns for DON with the returns for the S&P 500 as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ), with a sample period going back to June 2006, the results were great for returns but bad for risk. DON returned a very impressive 119% in that period while SPY returned 101%. Clearly that strong performance is great, but the max drawdown was almost 62% compared to 55% for SPY and the annualized volatility for DON was higher. Simply put, I believe the excess returns here are strongly correlated to the excess risk. There is nothing wrong with a higher risk portfolio, but it doesn’t match the typical expectation of an investor hoping to drop their cash in and get a fairly safe and growing stream of dividend income. Conclusion This is a fine mid-cap ETF but it doesn’t make sense as a dividend ETF. The yield, the sector allocations, and the risk level demonstrated over the last 9 years or so are indicative of a more typical mid-cap ETF that is appropriate for aggressive investors with very bullish expectations about the future path of the economy. This is the kind of allocation I would be interested in buying when the market had crashed and already lost 40% of the total market value. If shares get that depressed, then this allocation would be much more acceptable for trying to catch the ride back up in equity prices. In my opinion, our market would have to fall quite a ways before I would want to start grabbing up those highly aggressive allocations. I can’t argue with the past returns, but the risk just doesn’t match up with my desires.