Tag Archives: china

ETF Update: 5 More Launches To Round Out October

Summary Every week, Seeking Alpha aggregates ETF updates in an effort to alert readers and contributors to changes in the market. There were 5 launches last week, bringing the total number of ETF launches for October to 26. Have a view on something that’s coming up or a new fund? Submit an article. Welcome back to the SA ETF Update. My goal is to keep Seeking Alpha readers up to date on the ETF universe and to gain some visibility, both for the ETF community, and for me as its editor (so users know who to approach with issues, article ideas, to become a contributor, etc.) Every weekend, or every other weekend (depending on the reader response and submission volumes), we will highlight fund launches and closures for the week, as well as any news items that could impact ETF investors. There were 5 launches last week, bringing the total number of ETF launches for October to 26. There were however 6 closures this month as well, so a net gain of 20 funds. With the total number of ETFs in the U.S. pushing past 1800 I can’t help but wonder when we will break 2000. My guess is June 2016, but don’t hold me to it. Fund launches for the week of October 26, 2015 There were no fund closures for the week of October 26, 2015 Have any other questions on ETFs or ETNs? Please comment below and I will try to clear things up. As an author and editor I have found that constructive feedback is the best way to grow. What you would like to see discussed in the future? How can I improve this series to meet reader needs? Please share your thoughts on this first edition of the ETF Update series in the comments section below. Have a view on something that’s coming up or a new fund? Submit an article.

Global Wealth And The Long-Term Investor

How wealthy has China become? At last count, the country accounted for a full 8 percent of all global ultra-high net worth investors (UHNWIs) – those worth more than $50 million. What will those UHNWIs do with that newfound wealth? That’s an important question, because household wealth is a key driver of consumers’ consumption and investment decisions as well as entrepreneurial activity, and that holds true whether one is Chinese, American, or otherwise. China and the United States led the world in wealth creation over the past year, while other countries saw their relative wealth decline as a stronger dollar reduced the value of many assets denominated in local currencies. In its sixth Global Wealth Report, the Credit Suisse Research Institute provides a comprehensive view of household and per capita wealth all over the world. In research derived from that report, analysts give several key takeaways for investors with a long-term focus. USA Leads Wealth Creation… American household wealth grew by $4.6 trillion to $86 trillion between mid-year 2014 and mid-year 2015, an increase of 4.5 percent per adult. Average American net worth is $352,996, 21 percent higher than before the financial crisis, but the country’s median net worth is just $49,787 – with the gaping difference between the two explained by the fact that the U.S. has a high proportion of the world’s wealthiest people. The United States has 15.6 million millionaires – nearly half the global total – and is home to 48 percent of the world’s 123,800 ultra-high net-worth individuals. China has the second-highest share, the aforementioned 8 percent. Investment implications : Demand for the services of U.S. money managers is likely to continue growing, as will spending on higher-end brands such as Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL ), Phillips Van-Heusen, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ). … But the Middle Class Is Squeezed Here’s the flip side of the above: By Credit Suisse’s definition, some 38 percent of American households are middle class (wealth between $50,000 and $500,000), but they control just 20 percent of the wealth. Only Singapore, and Switzerland show similar disparities. In Switzerland, for example, the middle class comprises 44.5 percent of the population, but controls just 20 percent of the wealth. In addition, the global middle class has yet to fully recover from the major hit it absorbed during the financial crisis. Between 2000 and 2007, 267 million people joined the middle class. Between mid-year 2007 and mid-year 2008, 115 million people dropped right back out again. Since 2008, the middle class has grown by just 26 million people. What’s more, the amount of wealth that the global middle class controls has grown much more slowly in the wake of the financial crisis than it did beforehand, and members of the European and African middle class are still poorer than they were before the financial crisis. In other words, the global middle class is smaller than it was a decade ago, and the relative importance of the middle class to the overall economy in the U.S. and a few other places is falling. Recent gains in wealth have been concentrated disproportionately among the already wealthy, as opposed to the middle class. In the United States, Credit Suisse says the middle class share of wealth is being “squeezed by the exceptionally high wealth of the 12 percent of adults above middle class.” Investment implications : As middle class consumers in the United States see their share of overall wealth decline, companies that appeal to value-conscious consumers – Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Dollar General (NYSE: DG ), Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN ), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ), and more – should continue to be popular. Watch the Emerging Middle Some middles are different than others. While the middle class in America (and much of the developed world) has seen its share of the national wealth decline, those in the middle of the road in emerging markets are enjoying the opposite, with their combined net worth accounting for a growing percentage of the total in their respective countries. The global middle class has grown from 524 million households in 2000 to 664 million in 2015, a 27 percent increase. Some 41 percent of them live in emerging markets, where the ranks of the middle class grew 3.3 percent a year between 2000 and 2015, compared to 1.34 percent in the U.S. China now has a larger middle class than the United States – 109 million people to 92 million. In Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, the middle class controls a disproportionately large share of wealth. India ranks among the most extreme examples, and the 3 percent of the households that qualify as middle class own 23 percent of the country’s wealth. In Mexico, 17 percent of households are middle class, but they account for 40 percent of the country’s wealth. Investment implications : In countries where middle-class consumers play an outsize role in the economy, investors would do well to think about how to capitalize on their wants and needs. Because the recent appreciation of the dollar has diminished the spending power of middle-class households in the developing world, Credit Suisse suggests that investors steer clear of global luxury goods companies in favor of local brands, particularly technology or service sector companies, such as the Samsung Group’s Shilla Hotel and Resorts ( OTC:HSLLF ), Chinese Internet company Tencent ( OTCPK:TCEHY ), MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI ) (an Argentinian eBay), Indonesian retailer Matahari Department Store ( OTC:PTMSY ), and Mexican media giant Televisa (NYSE: TV ). Don’t Be Fooled By China’s Wobble According to the Credit Suisse Research Institute, there’s only one word to describe China’s wealth accumulation: Relentless. Since 2000, China’s per capita wealth has quadrupled to $22,513, and the country has more than a million millionaires. As of June 2015, its total household wealth of $22.8 trillion trailed only that of the U.S. That said, a year-long boom, in which Chinese stocks rose 150 percent, came to a spectacular end just a month later. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 25 percent since the end of June, and the Chinese government devalued the renminbi over the summer, eroding the international purchasing power of its citizens. But stocks account for just 10 percent of overall household wealth in China, and the country also has a high personal savings rate. In other words, it’s not about to fall off the global wealth podium anytime soon. Investment implications : China took just 15 years to grow from $6.3 trillion worth of wealth to $23 trillion – an achievement that took the United States 33 years, between 1939 and 1972. Credit Suisse predicts that Chinese wealth will continue to grow at a rate of 9.4 percent a year over the next five years, at which time the country’s population will be as wealthy as the U.S. was in 1988. Investors should seek out those companies best positioned to sate China’s growing consumer appetite over the long haul. Original Post Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Inside The Continued Surge In Sugar ETFs

The rally in sugar prices seems to be unstoppable when most of the other commodities are finding the going tough. Its days of a supply glut ended in late August when future prices touched the lowest point since 2008. Since then, raw sugar prices at New York Mercantile Exchange recovered nearly 40% to around 14 cents per pound as of October 27, 2015, despite a surprising 1.5% fall in Tuesday’s trading session. The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar on the back of Eurozone and Chinese stimulus measures could not derail the greenback priced commodity off the track. In fact, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) predicted raw sugar prices on the New York exchange will average 15.2 cents per pound in the final quarter of 2015 and 17.3 cents per pound in 2016. The advantage lies primarily in adverse weather conditions across the globe causing supply bottlenecks. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer accounting for 40% of global exports, is expected to witness above-average rainfall linked to a strong El Nino in growing regions that could disrupt the harvest, leaving a chunk of cane left to cut. Moreover, biofuel mandates and modification in energy taxation in Brazil are prompting sugarcane processors to convert cane for ethanol production instead of raw sugar, limiting its supply in the world market. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, or Unica, ethanol production in south-central Brazil went up 2.6% year over year to 20.2 million kiloliters while sugar production dipped 7.2% to 23.2 million tons during the April-September period. India, the world’s second largest sugar producer, is also expected to trim sugar production due to El Nino-induced drought in the region. Per Indian Sugar Mills Association, India is likely to cut its sugar output by 5% to 28.3 million tons in 2015. Other major sugar producing countries such as Thailand and China are also hit by droughts and are expected to cut sugar output. According to the International Sugar Organization and U.K. sugar trading house Czarnikow, there will be a sugar shortage of roughly 3-5 million tons in the global market for the current crop marketing year, which began this month. These apart, there are other factors that are driving the sugar price rally. China, the world’s largest importer of raw sugar, recently released data that showed a robust 80% year-over-year hike in sugar imports in September to 656,000 tons. It was the highest recorded volume since 2013, as per data from Commerzbank . Further, a recent report from Commitment of Traders revealed that hedge funds have been betting on sugar at a lower-than-expected pace, indicating the availability of surplus money to aid further rallies. Riding on the continued surge in sugar prices, ETFs that are exposed to this soft commodity have been experiencing double-digit gains over the past one month (as of October 27, 2015). Below, we highlight three of those ETFs that investors should definitely consider to play the bullish sugar market. iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA: SGG ) SGG tracks the Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return Index, which provides the returns that are in an investment in the futures contracts on the commodity of sugar. The note has garnered nearly $60 million in assets and trades in a daily volume of roughly 54,000 shares on average. It charges 75 bps in annual fees. The note was up 18.1% in the past one month and has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a High risk outlook. Teucrium Sugar Fund (NYSEARCA: CANE ) This ETF tracks the Sugar Futures index, which reflects the daily changes of a weighted average of the closing prices for three futures contracts for sugar that are traded on ICE Futures US. The fund is nearly overlooked as it has gathered nearly $4 million in assets and trades in a paltry volume of around 6,000 shares. However, the ETF is expensive, charging a hefty 176 bps in fees from investors per year. It was up 12.3% over the last one month and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook. iPath Pure Beta Sugar ETN (NYSEARCA: SGAR ) This is another sugar ETN by iPath and follows the Barclays Capital Sugar Pure Beta TR Index. The index consists of a single futures contract but it has a unique roll structure which selects contracts using the Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. SGAR is also neglected with only $1.5 million in AUM and is thinly traded with average volume of nearly 2,000 shares. The note charges 75 bps in annual fees and was up 17.5% in the past one month. It also carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3 with a High risk outlook. Original Post