Tag Archives: china

IMF Green Signal Put Yuan ETFs In Focus

The Chinese economy is telling us two different stories at a time. While on one hand, the economy is persistently delivering offhand economic numbers, and even raised hard landing fears at some point of time, on the other, its currency – yuan – received a privileged reserve status from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently. Notably, the inclusion of the yuan in the IMF’s reserve currency list gives the economy a cream-of-the-crop class, as this emerging currency will now sit beside the developed currencies like the U.S. dollar, pound, euro and yen. Also, the IMF nod indicates economic stability in China. The IMF’s executive board, which represents the fund’s 188 member nations, recently settled on the fact that the yuan now enjoys a “freely usable” status. The move marked the first change in the SDR’s currency portfolio since 1999, per Bloomberg . Not only this, China’s currency will have a weight of 10.92%, higher than that of the yen (8.33%) and the pound (8.09%), but lower than the euro (37.4%) and the U.S. dollar (41.9%) weight. The move will take effect in October 2016. Why the Move? Though several theories are doing rounds right now, both positive and negative, the IMF viewed it as the consequence of reformative measures presently being undertaken in China. However, one school of analysts addressed the decision as “political,” and is not counting on the easy accessibility of the currency, because the yuan cannot be transferred into other currencies without restrictions. The believer of this school also indicated that the IMF head “realized how bad things are in China, so what she (Christine Lagarde) decided to do was to throw China a lifeline.” This way, the IMF boss can press the Chinese government to launch a total convertibility for its currency. Notably, the Chinese economy is on its way to deliver a 25-year low expansion this year. Despite the roll-out of a flurry of measures, the economy has showed no signs of a steady recovery, and the financial markets remained highly volatile due to extreme risk-taking. Investors should also note that movements in the yuan market have been rampant this year. In August, China’s central bank devalued the currency by 2%, following which yuan posted the largest single-day decline since the historical devaluation in 1994, after the country arranged its official and market rates in a line. Notably, the Chinese authorities follow a trading band around the official reference rate it sets each day for the value of the yuan against the dollar. The Chinese government announced in August that the renminbi’s central parity rate would follow the previous day’s closing spot rates more closely going forward. This indicates China’s intent to make its currency more market-driven. As a result, a section of analysts believe that the actual motive behind this currency move was to prepare the yuan as a reserve currency. Most importantly, the Chinese central bank assured the market that it would promptly intervene in the currency market if depreciation crosses the 3% mark. Busy Trading in Yuan The yuan became the fifth-most active currency for global payments by value in October, with a market share of 1.92%, per the global transaction services organization SWIFT . Not only this, the Chinese currency beat the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar for payments between Japan and China/Hong Kong in October. Standard Chartered and AXA Insurance estimate that the IMF’s green signal will offer the yuan a minimum of $1 trillion of movement. Needless to say, this historic move makes it important to look at the Chinese yuan ETFs. WisdomTree Chinese Yuan ETF (NYSEARCA: CYB ) The most popular Chinese yuan fund is CYB from WisdomTree. The product invests in short-term, investment-grade instruments in order to be reflective of both money market rates in China available to foreign investors and changes in the value of the yuan against the dollar. The product charges investors 45 basis points a year, but sees decent average volumes of 50,000 shares a day on AUM of over $64.4 million. The fund currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Low risk outlook. It is down over 1.2% so far this year (as of December 1, 2015). Market Vectors Chinese Renminbi/USD ETN (NYSEARCA: CNY ) For investors seeking an ETN way to target the Chinese currency, CNY is the right option. This product tracks the S&P Chinese Renminbi Total Return Index, which looks to track the performance of the Chinese currency against the U.S. dollar, by rolling three-month non-deliverable currency forward contracts. The fee is a bit higher at 55 basis points a year, while volume comes in below 5,000 shares a day, suggesting a wide bid-ask spread and ever-increasing total costs. The product is down 0.6% so far this year. The ETN currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3. CurrencyShares Chinese Renminbi Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: FXCH ) This product looks to track the price of the Chinese renminbi net of Trust expenses. The product has amassed about $7.7 million in assets, while it sees weak volumes of around 1,000 shares a day, suggesting a wide bid-ask spread. On the positive side, the ETF has the lowest expense ratio at just 40 basis points a year in the Chinese currency ETF space. The fund has lost 2.7% this year and carries a Zacks ETF Rank #3. Original Post

Can Copper ETFs Rebound After Chinese Production Cut?

Thanks to a surging dollar, global growth worries and supply glut, industrial metals have been hammered badly this year. In particular, copper was the hardest hit by worries about slowing growth in China. This is especially true as China is the biggest consumer of the metal and accounts for about 45% of copper demand. Additionally, the red metal is used in global construction and manufacturing activities, which are experiencing a slowdown. Notably, copper plunged to a six-year low, losing nearly 30% so far this year. Even the announcement of production cuts in the weekend by Chinese producers did not yet help the price to stabilize. Production Cuts In order to counter slumping prices, 10 leading Chinese copper producers plan to cut their output by 350,000 metric tons in 2016, or about 5% of China’s annual production. The move could ease fears of a protracted supply glut and give some support to copper prices. However, many traders believe that the supply cuts are too small and insufficient to rebalance the metal market amid disappointing macro fundamentals. Outlook Still Bleak Weak economic activities in China have been weighing on copper demand and are expected to do so in the coming months as well. This is because manufacturing activity in China shrunk for the fourth straight month in November to the 3-year low, underscoring persistent weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. Most of the other developed and developing economics are also experiencing sluggish growth which is weighing on the global demand for copper. Adding to the woes is the prospect of a rates hike in the U.S. later this month that has dampened the appeal for metals as a store of value owing to a strengthening dollar. Given the bleak fundamentals, it seems that Chinese production cuts are not enough to reduce the global supply glut and drive copper prices upward. So, investors should currently avoid trading in copper ETFs. In addition, these funds have an unfavorable Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating, suggesting that these will continue to underperform in the months ahead. iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA: JJC ) The ETN tracks the Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return Index, which seeks to deliver returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on copper. The index currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity of copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX). The product charges investors 75 bps a year in fees, and has a lower level of AUM of $34.2 million. It trades in paltry volume of about 20,000 shares a day on average. The ETN shed nearly 30% so far this year. United States Copper Index Fund (NYSEARCA: CPER ) The fund seeks to track the performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return, plus interest income from CPER’s holdings. The index provides investors with exposure to front-month copper futures contract traded on the on the NYSE Arca. The product has amassed $2 million in its asset base while sees paltry volume of about 1,000 shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.65%. The ETF has lost 27.5% in the year-to-date time frame. iPath Pure Beta Copper ETN (NYSEARCA: CUPM ) This note seeks to match the performance of the Barclays Copper Pure Beta Total Return Index. Unlike many commodity indexes, this can roll into one of a number of futures contracts with varying expiration dates, as selected, using the Barclays Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. This approach results in less contango, which is an important factor, as shifting from month to month in contracts can eat away returns in an unfavorable market situation. The note has amassed $1.6 million in its asset base and trades in a meager volume of about 200 shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.75%. CUPM is down 27% so far this year. Original Post