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Verizon May Now Be Front-Runner For Yahoo, As Comcast, Google Bail

Verizon ( VZ ) is the front-runner for Yahoo ( YHOO ), now that several rumored bidders including Alphabet ( GOOGL ) unit Google and Comcast ( CMCSA ) have dropped out, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday . Yahoo reportedly sent a letter to possible buyers last month, asking them to submit preliminary bids, which are said to be due today. Some buyers might be interested in all or part of Yahoo’s core Web business, while others might want Yahoo’s stakes in Alibaba Group ( BABA ) or Yahoo Japan. Some reports estimate that as many as 40 groups have expressed interest in the wilting Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Web portal. Royalties from Yahoo Japan, thousands of patents and plentiful real estate could boost Yahoo’s bids, wrote SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Robert Peck in a recent research report. Minus a “potential upside” from those assets, SunTrust expects Yahoo to fetch bids in the $6 billion-$8 billion range for its core business. Yahoo has not commented. Yahoo rose 1 cent to 36.52 in the stock market today  Yahoo stock has sunk about 20% on growth concerns, compared to where it was trading this time last year. Verizon stock rose 0.7% to 51.73. AT&T ( T ), IAC/InteractiveCorp ( IAC ) and Time ( TIME ) have also decided not to join the bidding for Yahoo and its core assets, the WSJ said. Yahoo’s core assets include a 15% stake in China e-commerce giant Alibaba and holdings in Yahoo Japan. Time concluded it would be too hard to revive Yahoo’s finances, the WSJ said. Most of Yahoo’s value comes from its 15% stake in Alibaba. Yahoo’s market cap is $34.5 billion. Verizon was likely to face competition from private equity companies, including Bain Capital, Advent International and TPG, according to the WSJ report. YP Holdings, formed in 2012 from AT&T’s Yellow Pages, planned to bid for Yahoo, Bloomberg said. PE firm Cerberus Capital Management owns 53% and AT&T 47%. Verizon, with a market cap of $210 billion and about $4.5 billion in cash on its balance sheet, has the means to purchase Yahoo’s declining Web assets and a logical blueprint for folding them into its fledgling digital media business. Those include AOL properties it acquired last year for $4.4 billion, according to the WSJ report. Verizon has identified video services and online advertising to be the company’s next avenue for growth. It plans to combine customer data from smartphones with advertising inventory on AOL — and possibly Yahoo — to create an online advertising technology platform that can compete with Web giants such as Facebook ( FB ) and Alphabet-owned Google. “Verizon is trying to pivot its business from analog to digital,” Craig Moffett, senior analyst at telecommunications-research firm MoffettNathanson, told the WSJ. “Verizon believes that a combined AOL/Yahoo would provide the digital advertising platform they need to execute their video reinvention strategy.” Either way, news site Re/Code said that documents Yahoo provided to potential bidders predict that Yahoo’s 2016 revenue will drop by close to 15% and its earnings by more than 20%. Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer has been unable to spark significant earnings and revenue growth since she came aboard in 2012, as Yahoo has struggled to build online- and mobile-ad revenue vs. rivals Google , Facebook and others. Yahoo is set to report Q1 earnings after the close Tuesday. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Yahoo’s Q1 revenue to fall 12% year over year to $1.08 billion. Yahoo is guiding Q1 revenue at $1.05 billion to $1.09 billion, down 14% to 11%. FactSet expects Yahoo to report revenue ex-TAC of $847 million, down 18%. TAC, or traffic acquisition costs, refer to fees Yahoo pays other sites to carry its ads. Yahoo TAC spending has climbed during each quarter of 2015. The analyst consensus calls for Yahoo’s EPS ex items to plunge 53% to 7 cents.

Yahoo Q1 Preview: Flaming Financials, Bidding Rumors, Hidden Assets

Yahoo ( YHOO ) approaching its Q1 earnings release, scheduled for after the close Tuesday, amid flaming financials and rampant speculation about which companies might bid for the wilting Web portal. First-round bids reportedly are due Monday. “At an operational level, Yahoo’s situation has gone from bad to worse in recent quarters, with poor choices at both the board and senior management levels compounding bad luck. At this point, virtually any change could help to unlock value,” wrote Pivotal analyst Brian Wieser in an April 11 research note. Yet, Yahoo has received two price-target boosts in the past week. Pivotal raised its price target on Yahoo stock to 40 from 35, primarily due to the higher current trading price of Alibaba Group ( BABA ). Most of Yahoo’s value comes from its 15% stake in the China e-commerce titan. Yahoo’s total market cap is $35.19 billion. Yahoo stock is trading near 37. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Yahoo’s Q1 revenue to fall 12% year over year to $1.07 billion. Yahoo is guiding Q1 revenue at $1.05 billion to $1.09 billion, down 14% to 11%. FactSet expects Yahoo to report revenue ex-TAC of $847 million, down 18%. TAC, or traffic acquisition costs, refer to fees Yahoo pays other sites to carry its ads. Yahoo TAC spending has climbed during each quarter of 2015. Analyst consensus calls for Yahoo’s EPS ex items to plunge 53% to 7 cents. But on Wednesday, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey gave Yahoo stock a boost, raising its price target to 44 from 40. SunTrust also maintained its buy rating on Yahoo stock and cited “hidden assets” that could drive up the bidding price for the struggling Web portal. Royalties from Yahoo Japan, thousands of patents and plentiful real estate could boost Yahoo’s bids, wrote SunTrust analyst Robert Peck in a research report. Minus a “potential upside” from those assets, SunTrust expects Yahoo to fetch bids in the $6 billion to $8 billion range for its core business. Yahoo ‘Stickiness Factor’ Lags Google, Microsoft Yahoo sent a letter to possible buyers last month, asking them to submit bids, which reportedly are due Monday. Some buyers might be interested in all or part of Yahoo’s core Web business, while others might want Yahoo’s stakes in Alibaba or Yahoo Japan. Some reports estimate that as many as 40 groups have expressed interest in the wilting Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Web portal, although Fortune said in a report on Friday that number was too high. Either way, news site Re/code said that documents Yahoo provided to potential bidders predict that the Web portal’s 2016 revenue will drop by close to 15% and its earnings by more than 20%. Yahoo stock has more than doubled since the company hired Marissa Mayer, who had been a top executive at Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google, as CEO in July 2012. But she’s been unable to spark significant earnings and revenue growth, and Yahoo has struggled to build online-ad and mobile-ad revenue vs. rivals Google and Facebook ( FB ), among others. In the meantime, the company faces a proxy fight from activist investor Starboard Value, which wants to oust Yahoo’s entire board. A study by Verto Analytics found that 229 million users accessed one of Yahoo’s online services at least once during March 2016 in the U.S., which puts Yahoo’s net reach in the U.S. at 92.5%. But, Verto said, the average 122.6 million users who access Yahoo’s services on a daily basis gives Yahoo a “stickiness factor” of 54%, much lower than Google’s 86% and Microsoft ’s ( MSFT ) 68%. In February, Yahoo announced that it will cut 15% of its workforce — roughly 1,600 jobs — and look to sell noncore divisions and assets, such as patents and real estate, as part of a strategic plan to return the company to what it forecasts as modest-though-accelerating growth in 2017 and 2018. Mayer’s turnaround plan includes continued investment in what the company calls “Mavens” — Yahoo’s mobile, video, native and social businesses — where its ad revenue is growing. Mayer said that Yahoo’s consumer products division will consist of three global platforms — search, mail and Tumblr — and that it will focus on four vertical markets: news, sports, finance and lifestyle.

Could ‘Hidden Assets’ At Yahoo Push Up Its Bidding Price?

Yahoo ( YHOO ) has “hidden assets” that could drive up the bidding price for the struggling Web portal, says SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. “Perpetual” royalties from Yahoo Japan, thousands of patents and plentiful real estate could boost Yahoo’s bids, wrote SunTrust analyst Robert Peck in an industry report Wednesday. Those three critical aspects of the company’s valuation “are not well understood and could have material upside to bids, potentially driving them higher than our $6 billion to $8 billion published range,” wrote Peck. SunTrust raised its price target on Yahoo stock to 44 from 40 while maintaining a buy rating on the company. Yahoo stock was down a fraction in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 37. While the company could bring in $6 billion net after taxes, Peck said, “Investors should expect bids in Round 1 (due Monday) to start lower than this, as bidders aim to bid just enough at first to make it into the next round. In Round 2, the bidding could become more intense and rise to the high end of our range, as we think there are several very qualified buyers.” The royalty stream from Yahoo Japan “is in perpetuity and represents 30% of Yahoo’s core advertising EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in 2016,” Peck wrote. He also said that Yahoo has more than 6,000 patents, “which could be worth more than the $1 billion to $3 billion range the company has cited.” The patents include deriving a user profile from questions and creating a system for customizing a website, according to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. And, Peck said, Yahoo owns more than 1 million square feet of building space and real estate that could be worth $1 billion. The company is reportedly is looking to sell a large parcel of undeveloped land near its Sunnyvale, Calif., headquarters that had been slated for possible development, signaling that it has now scrapped the building plan. Yahoo Bids Reportedly Due Monday Yahoo sent a letter to possible buyers last month, asking them to submit bids. Some buyers might be interested in all or part of Yahoo’s core Web business, while others might want Yahoo’s stakes in China e-commerce Alibaba Group ( BABA ) or Yahoo Japan. Yahoo has reportedly set an April 18 deadline for first round bids. Yahoo stock has more than doubled since the company hired Marissa Mayer, who had been a top executive at Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google, as CEO in July 2012. But she’s been unable to spark significant earnings and revenue growth, and Yahoo has struggled to build online-ad and mobile-ad revenue vs. rivals Google and Facebook ( FB ), among others. In the meantime, the company faces a proxy fight from activist investor Starboard Value, which wants to oust Yahoo’s entire board. An estimated 40 groups have expressed interest in buying all or part of the financially wilting Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Web portal. News site Re/Code said last week that documents Yahoo provided to potential bidders predict that the Web portal’s 2016 revenue will drop by close to 15% and its earnings by more than 20%. Yahoo is axing 15% of its workforce, or about 1,600 jobs. Rumored bidders for Yahoo include the Daily Mail, the British tabloid newspaper that on Monday reportedly confirmed its interest, attracted to Yahoo’s popular news and media properties. The Daily Mail is in preliminary talks with other investors to launch a bid for Yahoo, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, confirming a previous WSJ report out Sunday. Google reportedly is considering a bid for Yahoo’s core business, as is Verizon Communications ( VZ ). In 2011, Alibaba CEO Jack Ma publicly declared his interest in acquiring Yahoo.