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Emerging Market Currency Bond ETFs: Safe Haven/Risky Bet?

The global market rout is nearing its peak and the U.S. treasury bonds are drawing attention with investors seeking refuge to safe havens. However, this strategy earns investors safety in their portfolio but deprives them of high yields. Previously, emerging market currency bonds and the related ETFs were shelters for investors seeking juicy yields as well as relatively higher protection to capital gains. But they seem to have lost their appeal now. There are a plenty of reasons that are pushing this investing arena out of favor. Below we highlight what’s spoiling the fervor in emerging market currency bond ETF investing and marring its safe haven appeal. Why A Risky Bet Now? Stronger Dollar : First of all, several emerging market currencies have been facing tough times in recent months and stacking up losses due to a still strong U.S. dollar. WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA: CEW ), which measures changes in the value of emerging market currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, is down over 10% this year and lost 8.8% in the last three months (as of September 9, 2015). The speculation for the Fed lift-off has never been as strong as it is this time around. Though U.S. job numbers in August grew at the most sluggish pace in 5 months and fell short of analysts’ expectation, this might not deter the Fed from finally hiking the rate. This has made the greenback a king of currency that has weighed heavily on a basket of emerging market currencies, be it across Asia, or Latin America. Slumping Commodities : Many emerging market nations are commodity-rich. As a result, a broader commodity market swoon on supply glut, lower demand on global growth worries and a strong greenback wreaked havoc on currencies of commodity-focused economies including Russia, Brazil and Columbia. This was truer given the oil price crash over more than the last one-year period which has wreaked havoc on oil-oriented emerging economies like Russia and Columbia. This also dealt a blow to the emerging market currencies. China-Induced Global Market Rout : Upheaval in the Chinese economy and the stock market crushed the global market in August and it is still not out of woods. This episode sent shockwaves to other emerging markets, making the economic health of the entire EM bloc questionable. Impact on Emerging Market Currencies As a result, global emerging market bonds were hit hard at the last week of August and saw the highest exodus in assets (worth about $4.2 billion ) since the taper threat in 2013. Several analysts like Societe Generale ( OTCPK:SCGLF ) are against the emerging market currency bonds and believe that even if the Fed holds up the lift-off at the current level keeping the global market turmoil in mind, sheer ambiguity in policy decision will likely keep the outlook of the emerging market currencies downbeat. In short, underperformance in currency has marred the appeal for higher yields in emerging market bond ETFs. The recent price performance also bore testimony to this fact. Fundamental Emerging Markets Local Debt Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PFEM ) was the weakest performer in the emerging market debt ETF pack while the U.S.-dollar denominated ETFs like Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PCY ) performed relatively better. U.S. dollar-denominated bond ETFs invest in sovereign debt from various emerging nations, but do so via U.S. dollar-denominated securities and are thus not hurt by currency translation troubles. Some of the worst-performing emerging market currency bond ETFs in recent times are Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: EMLC ), WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSEARCA: ELD ), iShares Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: LEMB ) and SPDR Barclays Capital Emerging Market Local Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: EBND ). These ETFs shed the most in the last one-month frame, having lost in 5% to 7% range while retreated about 2% in the last five trading sessions (as of September 9, 2015). So, we can conclude from the recent trend that emerging market currency bond ETFs are hardly safe with attractive yields. Instead, these are rather unsafe with melting gains. Original Post

SCZ: Do You Need Some International Small-Cap Companies For Your Portfolio?

Summary SCZ has over 1500 holdings across the globe which appear to give it great internal diversification. The term “across the globe” might be overly optimistic since over 50% of the holdings are in two locations. The weakness for SCZ is that SCHC and VSS both offer materially lower expense ratios and more holdings for enhanced diversification. Since SCZ has a beta higher than 1, it has to be expected to generate fairly substantial returns. On top of the high beta raising required returns, SCZ also needs to be able to beat out SCHC and VSS to justify the high expense ratio. One of the funds I analyzed for exposure to international markets is the iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: SCZ ). I’ll be performing a substantial portion of my analysis along the lines of modern portfolio theory, so my goal is to find ways to minimize costs while achieving diversification to reduce my risk level. By reducing risk at the portfolio level investors can get their best shot at producing alpha. Expense Ratio The expense ratio for SCZ is .40% for both gross and net expense ratio. That may not seem bad for international small-cap equity and an ETF with 1555 holdings. However, investors should be aware that they also have options in the Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHC ) and the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: VSS ). SCHC has an expense ratio of .18% and 1645 holdings. VSS has an expense ratio of .19% and 3352 holdings. It should be no surprise that I see SCHC and VSS as the strong front runners for this kind of portfolio exposure. In the interest of full disclosure, while I don’t have a position in any of these ETFs yet, I do have a pending limit-buy order on SCHC. That order is quite a ways under the current share prices and is only intended to activate if share prices start falling hard again. Geography The geography of the exposure is important in considering international equity options. The chart below demonstrates the exposure for SCZ. Japan and the United Kingdom only represent over 50% of the market capitalization of the holdings in SCZ. I’d like to see more exposure around the globe. This is international and I’m okay with excluding China since I’ve been bearish on their market for months, but I’d like to see a few more continents included. Aside from the concentration being so heavily focused on the top two options, I don’t see any other problems there. Sector Exposures The following chart has the sector exposures within the ETF: I’m not seeing this as a huge problem, but it seems interesting that the exposure is so heavily focused on a few categories again. If it were reasonably possible, I’d like to see better diversification across the industries as well as across the globe. International ETFs are usually plagued by having fairly high levels of volatility and more diversification within the sectors might reduce that volatility some. On the other hand, when financial markets exhibit significant stress factors, it is common for correlation levels to increase throughout international markets so even more diversification in the holdings might not make a material difference in the volatility. Building the Portfolio This hypothetical portfolio has a moderately aggressive allocation for the middle aged investor. Only 30% of the total portfolio value is placed in bonds and a third of that bond allocation is given to high yield bonds. This portfolio is probably taking on more risk than would be appropriate for many retiring investors since the volatility on equity can be so high. However, the diversification within the portfolio is fairly solid. Long term treasuries work nicely with major market indexes and I’ve designed this hypothetical portfolio without putting in the allocation I normally would for REITs on the assumption that the hypothetical portfolio is not going to be tax exempt. Hopefully investors will be keeping at least a material portion of their investment portfolio in tax advantaged accounts. The portfolio assumes frequent rebalancing which would be a problem for short term trading outside of tax advantaged accounts unless the investor was going to rebalance by adding to their positions on a regular basis and allocating the majority of the capital towards whichever portions of the portfolio had been underperforming recently. (click to enlarge) A quick rundown of the portfolio The two bond funds in the portfolio are the PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index ETF (NYSEARCA: HYS ) for high yield shorter term debt and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) for longer term treasury debt. TLT should be useful for the highly negative correlation it provides relative to the equity positions. HYS on the other hand is attempting to produce more current income with less duration risk by taking on some credit risk. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLP ) is used to make the portfolio overweight on consumer staples with a goal of providing more stability to the equity portion of the portfolio. The iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA: IDU ) is used to create a significant utility allocation for the portfolio to give it a higher dividend yield and help it produce more income. I find the utility sector often has some desirable risk characteristics that make it worth at least considering for an overweight representation in a portfolio. The core of the portfolio comes from simple exposure to the S&P 500 via the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ), though I would suggest that investors creating a new portfolio and not tied into an ETF for that large domestic position should consider the alternative by Vanguard’s Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: VOO ) which offers similar holdings and a lower expense ratio. I have yet to see any good argument for not using or another very similar fund as the core of a portfolio. In this piece I’m using SPY because some investors with a very long history of selling SPY may not want to trigger the capital gains tax on selling the position and thus choose to continue holding SPY rather than the alternatives with lower expense ratios. Risk Contribution The risk contribution category demonstrates the amount of the portfolio’s volatility that can be attributed to that position. Despite TLT being fairly volatile and tying SPY for the second highest volatility in the portfolio, it actually produces a negative risk contribution because it has a negative correlation with most of the portfolio. It is important to recognize that the “risk” on an investment needs to be considered in the context of the entire portfolio. To make it easier to analyze how risky each holding would be in the context of the portfolio, I have most of these holdings weighted at a simple 10%. Because of TLT’s heavy negative correlation, it receives a weighting of 20% and as the core of the portfolio SPY was weighted as 50%. Correlation The chart below shows the correlation of each ETF with each other ETF in the portfolio and with the S&P 500 . Blue boxes indicate positive correlations and tan box indicate negative correlations. Generally speaking lower levels of correlation are highly desirable and high levels of correlation substantially reduce the benefits from diversification. Conclusion SCZ is the most volatile investment in the portfolio when viewed in isolation as it has a volatility level of 18.7%. That problem is compounded by the high correlation between SCZ and the S&P 500. The combination leads SCZ to having a beta of 1.06% which is unfavorable. Under modern portfolio theory the only way to get risk adjusted returns on SCZ is for it to be outperforming the S&P 500 over the long run since it is increasing portfolio volatility. Will it outperform the S&P 500? I have no idea. The better question would probably be: “Will it outperform SCHC and VSS?” In that regard, I’m skeptical. It certainly could happen but SCHC and VSS have an advantage from having materially lower expense ratios which allow more of the returns to reach shareholders. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis.

Looking At SCHZ In The Context Of A Diversified Portfolio

Summary SCHZ has done an exceptional job of allocating the portfolio across different debt instruments. The maturities of the portfolio also offer a high degree of diversification. SCHZ is a great option for investors that want to use a larger allocation to bonds in their portfolio. Investors that only use a bond allocation for negative correlation to their equity investors may want to stick to long treasury securities. Investors should be seeking to improve their risk adjusted returns. I’m a big fan of using ETFs to achieve the risk adjusted returns relative to the portfolios that a normal investor can generate for themselves after trading costs. I’m working on building a new portfolio and I’m going to be analyzing several of the ETFs that I am considering for my personal portfolio. One of the funds that I’m considering is the Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHZ ). I’ll be performing a substantial portion of my analysis along the lines of modern portfolio theory, so my goal is to find ways to minimize costs while achieving diversification to reduce my risk level. Expense Ratio The expense ratio on SCHZ is only .05%. Since bond yields remain very low, it is especially important for bond funds to have very low expense ratios. A bond fund with weak yields on the securities and high expense ratios would offer investors a terrible investment. While the yields on SCHZ are limited as the portfolio holds a large amount of high quality debt in a market that is holding yields down, the low expense ratio remains a very attractive feature. Allocations The sector diversification within the ETF is very impressive for a bond fund. If an investor wanted to simply grab one bond portfolio, this would be an option for doing it all in a single purchase. My personal preference is to use more than one bond fund to make it easier to target different parts of the yield curve and create more diversification benefits for the portfolio, but I do think this is one of the better “one stop shopping” options. (click to enlarge) Maturity In addition to having a large degree of diversification within the type of debt instruments, the maturities of those instruments are also highly diversified to reduce volatility stemming from twists in the yield curve. (click to enlarge) Building the Portfolio I put together a hypothetical portfolio using only ETF’s that fall under the “free to trade” category for Charles Schwab accounts. My bias towards these ETFs is simple, I have my solo 401k there and recently moved my IRA accounts there as well. When I’m building a list of ETFs to consider I want to focus on things I can trade freely so that I can keep making small transactions to buy more when the market falls. Within the hypothetical portfolio there are no expense ratios higher than .18%. Just like trading costs, I want to be frugal with expense ratios. The portfolio is fairly aggressive. Only 30% of the total is allocated to bonds and I would consider that the weakest area in the portfolio. I’d like to see more bond options (with very low expense ratios) show up on the “One Source” list for free trading. (click to enlarge) A quick rundown of the portfolio The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ) is a dividend index. The Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHB ) is a broad market index. The Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHX ) is focused on blended large cap exposure. The Schwab International Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHF ) is developed international equity. The Schwab Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHE ) is emerging market equity. The Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHC ) is developed small capitalization equity. The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHH ) is domestic equity REITs. is a remarkably complete bond fund. The SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: TLO ) is a long term treasury ETF. The PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ZROZ ) is an extremely long term treasury ETF. Notice that the 3 international equity ETFs have only been weighted at 5% while the broad market index has been weighted at 25%. I find heavy exposure to international equity to bring more risk than expected returns so I try to keep my international exposure low. I prefer no more than 20% in international equity. Plenty of domestic companies already have enormous international operations so the benefit of international diversification is not as strong as it would be if the markets were isolated from each other. Risk Contribution The risk contribution category demonstrates the amount of the portfolio’s volatility that can be attributed to that position. When TLO and ZROZ post negative risk contribution it is because the negative correlation to most of the equity holdings results in the long term treasury ETFs reducing the total portfolio risk. In my opinion, this is the best argument for including them in the portfolio. Correlation The chart below shows the correlation of each ETF with each other ETF in the portfolio and with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). Blue boxes indicate positive correlations and tan box indicate negative correlations. Generally speaking lower levels of correlation are highly desirable and high levels of correlation substantially reduce the benefits from diversification. (click to enlarge) Conclusion SCHZ offers investors a remarkable amount of diversification within the holdings. The diversification can be seen in the allocations to different types of debt instruments and to different maturities. The weakness in this otherwise exceptional fund is that including non-treasury debt makes it more susceptible to weak performance when the market becomes more timid. The exposure to credit risk is represented by the correlation for SCHZ to major indexes like SCHB and SCHD running in the -.23 to -.27 range. Those are good negative correlations that improve risk adjusted returns across the portfolio, but the negative correlation is much weaker than it is for ETFs that are focusing on treasury securities like TLO or ZROZ. On the other hand, if an investor wants a simple option for grabbing diversified bond exposure with lower volatility, SCHZ stands out as a very solid option that can fit nicely into a wide variety of portfolios. The question an investor must answer in buying into a bond ETF is “What is the purpose of this allocation”? If the desire is low volatility for the fund while the investor collects the interest income, then SCHZ should be a strong candidate. If the investor is simply trying to acquire negative correlations to other equity positions, then using longer treasury securities make more sense. In my opinion, investors assigning a higher portion of the portfolio to bonds will benefit more from SCHZ because the low volatility of the fund will be more important. Investors focused heavily on equity and only using bonds for negative correlations may want to focus on longer treasuries that use more volatility and negative correlation to counteract negative movements in equity markets. I’ve been contemplating buying some SCHZ for my portfolio; however I’m also running a portfolio that is heavily overweight on equities and light on bonds which pushes me towards using the treasury options for the stronger negative correlations. Disclosure: I am/we are long SCHB, SCHD, SCHF, SCHH. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis.