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Vanguard’s Total Bond Market ETF Is A Great Fund For Investors Seeking Higher Quality

Summary BND offers a very low expense ratio that allows the interest to reach shareholders. The biggest risk factor for the fund is the diverging interest rate policies in the U.S. and Europe leading to potentially higher levels of volatility in rates. The exposure to MBS is unfortunate given the options investors have for using mREITs to acquire MBS at a discount to book value. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) is a solid bond fund. As I’ve been searching for appealing bond funds, I’ve found some of my favorites are from Vanguard. Given my distaste for high expense ratios, it should be no surprise that the Vanguard products would be appealing. Some funds are able to offer low expense ratios and mitigate their risks by strictly dealing in the most liquid bonds where pricing is most likely to be efficient and relying on the market to ensure that the risk/return profile is appropriate. Generally I favor ETFs that have low expense ratios and strictly deal in highly liquid bonds where the pricing will be more efficient. The expense ratio for BND is a .07%. This is one of the funds that falls into my desired strategy of using highly liquid securities and a very low expense ratio to rely on the efficient market to assist in creating fair values for the bonds. Yield The yield is 2.45%. The desire for a higher yield should be fairly easy for investors to understand. Bond funds that offer a higher yield are offering more income to the investor. Unfortunately, returns are generally compensating for risk so higher yield funds will usually require an investor either take on duration risk or credit risk. In many situations, an investor will take on a mix of the two. Junk bond funds generally carry a high degree of credit risk but low duration risk while longer duration AAA corporate funds have only slight to moderate credit risk combined with a significant amount of duration risk. Theoretically treasuries have zero credit risk and long duration treasuries would have their risk solely based on the interest rate risk. The yield for BND is coming primarily from the interest rate risk on the fund. The average duration is 5.8 years and the average effective maturity is 8 years. Fluctuations in the interest rate environment will be a major source of changes in the fair value of the fund. Duration The following chart demonstrates the sector exposure for this bond fund: At the present time I’m concerned about taking on duration risk in early December because of the pending FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. I believe it is more likely than not that we will see the first rate hike in December. I think a substantial portion of that probability has already been priced into bonds, so investors willing to take the risk prior to the meeting could see significant gains if the Federal Reserve does not act. The very interesting thing we are seeing in the interest rate environment today is a divergence in policy between the domestic interest rates and the interest rates in Europe established by the ECB (European Central Bank). The ECB has announced another decrease in their short term rates to negative .30% while the Federal Reserve is planning to increase short term rates. That disconnect is going to make bond markets very interesting over the next few years. Credit Risk The following chart demonstrates the credit exposure for this bond fund: High quality corporate debt may often show significant correlation to treasuries but it offers higher yields. The biggest weakness for a high quality corporate debt fund is the fact that some bonds may still fall into lower credit quality and eventually default. Even if the fund sells the bonds before they default, they will receive a much lower fair value for those bonds when the market assess that the bond is riskier. I find high credit quality corporate debt to be a fairly attractive space for bond investing because it offers higher yields than treasuries but is unlikely to suffer from high default levels. By combining high credit quality corporate debt with treasury positions BND is able to create a higher yield than the fund would otherwise have while maintaining exceptionally high credit quality overall. The one notable concern I have in this regard is that over 20% of their “U.S. Government” debt is coming through the form of mortgages, and investors have access to mREITs that are trading at enormous discounts to book value. Conclusion I’m not a fan of holding the MBS at book value, but other than that I find the fund to be a solid choice for bond investors. It offers a reasonable yield for the very low credit risk on the fund and a very low expense ratio so the interest from the securities is actually reaching the shareholders. The biggest risk here, in my opinion, is the challenges we may see in the interest rate environment as the United States and Europe intentionally move in the opposite directions.

The V20 Portfolio Week #10: Almost There

Summary The search for a hedge continues. Dex Media’s new deadline is Monday, but it could be extended again. With all major events now behind us, it should be smooth sailing ahead. The V20 portfolio is an actively managed portfolio that seeks to achieve annualized return of 20% over the long term. If you are a long-term investor, then this portfolio may be for you. You can read more about how the portfolio works and the associated risks here . Always do your own research before making an investment. Read last week’s update here ! The bears are back just before we wrap up the year. The V20 Portfolio claimed another victory over the S&P 500 this week, staying virtually flat (-0.4%) versus the index’s decline of 4% this week. With oil hitting historic lows recently, having broken the $40/bbl mark and now testing $35/bbl, there seems to be no end to this commodity slump. Update On Hedging Those of you that follow my weekly updates probably remembered that I was looking for an energy stock to offset the position in Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ: SAVE ). I still have not found any energy stock that would be worthwhile to include in the V20 portfolio, and it looks that I got lucky with this delay. I want to stress the word “luck” because I had every intention to find a good energy company, it’s just that I have been successful thus far. Had I taken a position then, it sure wouldn’t have been pretty. Given the current outlook for oil, has my objective changed? The answer is no. I remain committed to find an offsetting position for Spirit Airlines. Keep in mind that this is not limited to a long on energy stocks, it could also be a short on a less impressive airline, or even futures for a more direct hedge for fuel prices. The reason why I am more inclined to find a long position is simply the result of better risk/reward of a long position on an undervalued energy company. Ideally, the company would earn money during the current downturn, and will hence perform even better when oil rises. So in other words, I don’t want the value of this hedging position to completely offset any gains or losses that I make on Spirit Airlines. Outlook With Conn’s (NASDAQ: CONN ) earnings now behind us, we’ve officially wrapped up Q3 earnings. Going forward, Conn’s will continue to report monthly sales data. Through Q3 earnings, we already know that November sales were up 8% on a same store basis, so growth continues to be strong. Previously there were worries that tightening credit policies would impact sales, this is clear evidence that points to the contrary. There is also the curious case of Dex Media (NASDAQ: DXM ). As always, the stock fluctuated wildly during the week, and I expect this trend to continue going forward. However, because the stock is such a minute portion of the V20 Portfolio, any downside volatility will not significantly impact overall results at all. Even if equity holders lose everything post-restructuring, the V20 Portfolio will only decline by 0.7%. On the contrary, if the restructuring outcome is favorable to equity holders, then its value will skyrocket. As of right now, all stakeholders are still negotiating. Having extended the forbearance period once already, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is extended once again after the deadline passes on Monday. With major events now behind us, the V20 Portfolio is looking to have a strong finish in 2015. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Support The Environment And Profit With Fossil Fuel Free ETFs

The ongoing Paris climate talks have brought green investing back into focus. As concerns about the harmful impact of fossil fuels on the environment continue to grow, many investors are looking to eliminate fossil fuels related exposure from their portfolios and invest in cleaner alternatives. A growing number of institutional investors like pension funds, charities and endowments are increasingly divesting from fossil fuel companies. Recently, New York’s comptroller announced plans to invest the state retirement fund assets in companies with lower carbon emissions via an index designed by Goldman Sachs. Many retail investors are also interested in getting oil, gas and coal companies out of their portfolios, and fossil fuel free or low carbon ETFs are a great investment option for them. They help investors to exclude companies that are not aligned with their values and yet earn market-like returns. In the current market scenario, apart from moral and ethical concerns, financial concerns also should deter investments in fossil fuels. Looking at the shorter term, with oil price expected to stay low, fossil fuel investments look bad and even in the longer term, there is a case for avoiding these investments as governments all over the world work together to limit carbon emissions. To learn more about a couple fossil fuel free/low carbon ETFs – SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Free ETF ( SPYX ) and iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (NYSEARCA: CRBN ), please watch the short video below: Original Post