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Go For Birchcliff’s Preferred Shares Instead Of The Common Stock

Summary Birchcliff enjoys an ultra-low production cost for its natural gas, thanks in part to processing the majority at its own processing plant. I’m curious to see Birchcliff’s plan for 2016 as, despite the $120M price tag, it would make sense to expand the gas processing plant. The IRR is positive and will be 22% at a 10% higher gas price, so technically and theoretically Birchcliff should be going ahead with the expansion plans. But everything will depend on the company’s plans to achieve production growth, and I think Birchcliff will have to choose between the gas plant and a higher gross production rate. It’s pretty obvious the vast majority of the oil and gas producers are bleeding in the current price environment. That’s particularly true for Birchcliff Energy ( OTCPK:BIREF ) where the majority of the annual production consists of natural gas, which has been hit pretty hard. In fact, the gas price in North America has even dropped to less than $2. BIR data by YCharts Birchcliff is a Canadian company and I think it would be a better idea to trade the shares through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange, where Birchchliff is listed on the main board with BIR as its ticker symbol . The average daily volume is much better in Canada as approximately 660,000 shares are changing hands on a daily basis for a daily dollar volume of $2M. El Nino Is Hurting the Company’s Top and Bottom Lines Let’s start with the good news: Birchcliff Energy was able to keep its production rate stable at a total of 38,400 barrels of oil-equivalent per day. As I said, the vast majority of this comes from natural gas sales and the revenue from natural gas was approximately 3.25 times higher than the revenue generated from selling the attributable oil output. As the average production rate in the same quarter of last year was just over 34,000 boe/day and as the average in the first nine months of the current financial year was approximately 38,400 barrels per day, Birchcliff has done a pretty good job at keeping its production rates pretty consistent despite the worsening climate on the oil and gas front. (click to enlarge) Source: Financial statements. The total revenue in the third quarter of the financial year was almost C$79M ($57M) , which is more than 25% lower compared to the same quarter last year, so the higher output didn’t compensate for the lower oil and gas prices. The operating costs also increased a bit, due to increased marketing and transportation expenses. Nonetheless, Birchcliff was able to write black numbers on its bottom line, and the company generated a net profit of C$4.8M ($3.65M) in the third quarter of 2015. Keep in mind that Birchcliff hasn’t hedged any of its gas and oil production, so “what you see is what you get.” The revenue has not been boosted by one-time events, such as the gain on derivative instruments. Source: Financial statements. The operating cash flow on an adjusted basis was C$44.3M ($32M), which is pretty good considering the circumstances and the shortfall to cover the capital expenditures. The investing part of the working capital position was limited to just C$20M ($14.5M). This could be better, but it could also have been a lot worse. This is where Birchcliff’s low-cost gas production at Montney comes in handy. Will Birchcliff Generate a Sufficient Amount of Cash Flow to Cover Its 2016 Capital Expenditures? My main test for Birchcliff will be in seeing what the company is planning to do next year. The original plan called for another 10%-12% production increase to 42,000-45,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day, but I can imagine the company is currently developing a revised capital plan that will forego any production expansion while waiting for a higher gas price. This might probably be the smartest decision because even though the production costs at Montney are quite low, it might not be sufficient to cover the additional capital expenditures to indeed break even on the cash flow front. Source: Company presentation. It’s encouraging to see that even in the current gas price environment, the annualized operating cash flow will be roughly C$160M ($116M) and Birchcliff will have to try to keep the capital expenditures limited to approximately this level. Fortunately, the Canadian Dollar continued to weaken. This basically means that the lower natural gas price expressed in USD is partly compensated by the weaker CAD, which is also the currency Birchcliff is reporting its financial statements in. (click to enlarge) Fortunately, Birchcliff Energy still has ample access to liquidity as its bank has confirmed and increased an existing credit facility. Birchcliff can still draw approximately US$120M from this credit facility, and that should be sufficient to cover the capital shortfalls for the next two to three years. The Preferred Shares Could Be a Solution to Raise More Cash No company likes to issue new shares at the bottom of a cycle, but Birchcliff has an attractive Plan B. Birchcliff has two series of preferred shares in the market, and both the A-series and C-series have 2 million outstanding shares. The A-shares have a fixed 8% yield (payable quarterly) and are currently trading at 70% of par (and can be reset in 2017 based on the five-year yield on Canadian government bonds with a mark-up of 6.83%). The C-series have a fixed 7% yield . Both preferred share issues are perpetual, so Birchcliff can decide whether or not it wants to retire these preferred shares in the future. Should Birchcliff double the preferred share issue, it could raise C$70M ($50M) in a heartbeat, further reducing the pressure on its balance sheet. This could cover almost two years of capex funding shortfall. The additional cost of raising this C$70M? Just C$7.5M ($5.5M) per year. That’s not cheap, but it would provide an easy way to fund the ongoing activities. Once Birchcliff’s cash flows increase, the company can easily repurchase the preferred shares. Investment Thesis Birchcliff Energy is definitely hoping for a harsh winter to see a boost in the average gas price. The cash flow situation remains under control, but I think I would prefer the additional layer of safety and purchase the preferred shares. Yes, the upside is a bit more limited, but the series-C preferred share now yields almost 9%. That excludes any potential capital gains if Birchcliff decides to repurchase the preferred shares at par value sometime in the future. It will be very interesting to see what kind of capital investment plan Birchcliff has been preparing for 2016, and what it will do with the PCS gas plant, which was expected to see its throughput increase by 30% by the end of 2016. I think holding off on the expansion is the wisest decision, considering the IRR is just 22% at an AECO gas price of $2.5/GJ (currently at $2.25) and the initial capex is budgeted at US$120M. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Will Falling Silver Production Start To Impact SLV?

Summary The price of SLV lost 9% of its value during 2015. Silver production may drop in 2015 — for the first time in over a decade. As the deficit in silver keeps rising, this could eventually start affecting the price of SLV. The silver market didn’t have a good year as the price of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SLV ) shed over 9% off its value. The direction of silver will continue to be dictated by the direction of long term interest rates and U.S. dollar (among other things that silver investors look for when investing in the precious metal). But what about the changes in the physical demand and supply for silver? After all, the ongoing low silver prices contributed to the decline in silver production this year – perhaps 2015 will be the first year since in well over a decade, in which production won’t rise. Will this be enough to drive up the price of SLV? I have already addressed the recent rate hike by the Fed and its impact on SLV. Currently, the market isn’t convinced the Fed will raise rates by another 1 percentage point as its members estimated in the last FOMC meeting. The implied probabilities , as collected by Fed-watch, suggest the market projects only two hikes of 0.25 basis points in 2016. If the Fed wind up raising by only 0.25bp or not raise at all, this could bring back down long term interest rates and perhaps even depreciate the U.S. dollar – two shifts that could behoove the price of SLV. What about the changes in production? According to the Silver Institute the balance between supply and demand was in deficit (i.e. the demand was higher than the supply). And this has been the case for the past 12 consecutive years . This year’s deficit is expected to settle at 21.3 million oz – the lowest deficit in a decade. This decline in deficit is mostly due to net outflows from ETFs holdings and derivatives exchange inventories. Basically, as the demand for silver as investment diminishes, it helps ease the physical deficit. But there is also the matter of falling production that could increase this deficit. Up to 2014, production has been rising. This year, however, it seems production hasn’t picked up and perhaps even slightly declined. Among the top leading countries the produce silver: Mexico, Peru, China, Australia and Chile, according to one outlet , total production in these countries is slightly down for the year (up to August) – by less than 1%. So it’s still unclear how the year will end for the silver balance. But even if this year the deficit expands again, it doesn’t mean this trend will be enough to push up the price of silver. The high deficit in recent years including 2013 and 2014 hasn’t helped rally the price of silver. But perhaps this could also be a matter of timing. Eventually the deficit in supply-demand balance will matter enough to pull up the price of silver, especially as silver loses its shine as investment. When will this happen? That’s unclear. Therefore, for the near term it still seems that the direction of SLV will be govern firstly by the changes in the demand for silver as an investment tool and only secondly by the changes in supply and demand for physical silver. This means the direction of the U.S. dollar, other precious metals – most notably gold – and long term interest rates will set the pace for SLV. In the coming months, I won’t be surprised if the Fed takes a more dovish tone than it took in its recent statement, which could actually slightly pull up SLV. Finally, in the medium term, the growing deficit in silver – mostly driven by falling production and rising physical demand – may take a bigger role in moving the price of silver. For more please see: What’s Up Ahead for Silver in 2016?

2016 Investment Strategy With ETFs Part 1

ETFs are transforming. According to PWC (2013) exchange traded funds have benefitted over 20 years from massive growth due to their fine advantages for investors. By August (2013) it is reported that global ETF assets stood at $2.2 trillion in assets. This two part series will look at how the ETF industry has been changing and what this means for investors. As PWC explains: Evolving and proliferating as the attracted new users, ETFs went from a single vehicle providing exposure to large cap US equities to thousands of products representing a dizzying range of asset classes and strategies. What is an ETF? Understanding this change is helpful for investors, but before progressing further, it is helpful to understand what an ETF is. Mitch Tuchman (2013) writing for Forbes does a good job of explaining this. He explains that an ETF is a type of an index fund because it has the same goal. The goal of the ETF is: To provide investors with a benchmark return at minimal cost. There is one very important difference between ETFs and index funds. Index funds are expensive to trade, but ETFs have the advantage of being traded commission free in many cases. It is explained that not all ETFs work in the way that they copy index funds, so some caution needs to be taken during the selection process. It is argued that the flexibility of an ETF with its low trading cost, along with the performance of an index fund is likely to be best achieved by utilizing the biggest and best known ETFs on the market. These are the ones that have proven ability to meet widely understood benchmarks and which have a good track record showing that they can achieve their goals. Source: The next generation of ETFs, PWC ETF as a disruptor As PWC points out, ETFs have been an important disruptor and it is estimated that they are going to continue to grow at tremendous rates. They have been popular because they are low cost, offer tax efficiency, liquidity, transparency and intra-day pricing. As of August 2013, it is reported that there were 5,000 ETFs and exchange traded products (ETPs) worldwide. This has been threefold increase since the financial crisis. The USA is the biggest market for ETFs, and 70% of global ETF assets are found there. Europe comprises the second biggest market, but has only a quarter of the assets found in the USA are found there. Meanwhile, ETFs are growing extremely rapidly in Asia. One of the most important trends in this area has been the advent of actively managed funds. There have been a number of barriers to this development, but actively managed ETFs account for $13.8 billion in the USA alone. ETFs are not only launching at a very fast rate, but are also closing down very quickly. There were 117 ETF fund closures in the six months to the middle of 2013. It is argued that ETFs are moving from a situation of security selection to asset selection, and this change is especially noticeable in large, liquid markets. Indeed, ETFs in the USA have had a big effect on displacing mutual funds. Popularity has been driven by the ability to produce specific exposure. (click to enlarge) Source: ETFs: $3 Trillion is Nice, but $6 Trillion is Better In the past institutional investors showed a lot of interest in ETFs, but this has been changing to some degree, in regard to how these are seen and used. The reason for institutional investors using ETFs at the outset was for transition management, but at the current time these are viewed as long term holdings, as core allocation vehicles. By 2012, nearly 3,400 institutional investors spread across 50 different countries held ETFs or ETPs, which is double the number that used ETFs seven years ago. In addition to this, 90% of institutional investors are planning to at least maintain, if not increase their level of ETF investments in 2013. Investment advisors and hedge funds comprised 90% of institutional investments in ETFs, with the largest holdings mostly being among large global financial institutions. ETFs have not been a huge success in the retirement market, though it is explained that this is not a big surprise as mutual funds already have low cost share classes that are good for retirement plans. Also the retirement market is not as interested in tax efficiency. Nonetheless it is projected that this sector could grow, particularly in the annuity market. Lower costs are driving this change. Top ETFs for 2016 As suggested by Forbes, the best ETFs to invest in 2016 are as follows: 1. Vanguard Total Stock Market (NYSEARCA: VTI ) 2. Schwab US Broad Market (NYSEARCA: SCHB ) 3. Schwab US Large-Cap (NYSEARCA: SCHX ) 4. Schwab US Small Cap (NYSEARCA: SCHA ) 5. iShares Russel 2000 (NYSEARCA: IWM ) 6. Vanguard Extended Market (NYSEARCA: VXF ) 7. Vanguard FTSE Developed Market (NYSEARCA: VEA ) 8. Vanguard Total International Stock (NASDAQ: VXUS ) 9. iShares Core US Aggregated Bond (NYSEARCA: AGG ) 10. Schwab US Aggregated Bond (NYSEARCA: SCHZ )