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November Update – ETFReplay.com Portfolio

The ETFReplay.com Portfolio holdings have been updated for November 2015. I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best-performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility. The portfolio begins with a static basket of 14 ETFs. These 14 ETFs are ranked by 6-month total returns (weighted 40%), 3-month total returns (weighted 30%), and 3-month price volatility (weighted 30%). The top 4 are purchased at the beginning of each month. When a holding drops out of the top 5 ETFs, it will be sold and replaced with the next highest ranked ETF. The 14 ETFs are listed below: Symbol Name RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate PCY PowerShares Emerging Markets Bond WIP SPDR Int’l Govt. Infl.-Protect. Bond EFA iShares MSCI EAFE HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp. Bond EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets LQD iShares iBoxx Invest.-Grade Bond VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT TIP iShares Barclays TIPS VTI Vanguard MSCI Total U.S. Stock Market DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index GLD SPDR Gold Shares TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund In addition, ETFs must be ranked above the cash-like ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ) in order to be included in the portfolio, similar to the absolute momentum strategy I profiled here . This modification could help reduce drawdowns during periods of high volatility and/or negative market conditions (see 2008-2009), but it could also reduce total returns by allocating to cash in lieu of an asset class. The cash filter is in effect this month, the same as the previous four months. SHY is the highest rated ETF in the 6/3/3 system. Therefore, it will continue to be the sole holding in the portfolio. The top 5 ranked ETFs based on the 6/3/3 system as of 10/30/15 are below: 6mo/3mo/3mo SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-year) PCY PowerShares Emerging Markets Bond LQD iShares iBoxx Invest.-Grade Bond VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury In 2014, I introduced a pure momentum system, which ranks the same basket of 14 ETFs based solely on 6-month price momentum. There is no cash filter in the pure momentum system, volatility ranking, or requirement to limit turnover – the top 4 ETFs based on price momentum are purchased each month. The portfolio and rankings are posted on the same spreadsheet as the 6/3/3 strategy. The top 4 six-month momentum ETFs are below: 6-month Momentum VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Treasury SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-year) PCY PowerShares Emerging Markets Bond TIP, a holding for 2 months, will be sold for a loss of -.56%. LQD, a holding for 1 month, will be sold for a gain of .28%. The proceeds will be used to purchase VNQ and TLT. The updated holdings for the pure momentum portfolio are below: Position Shares Purchase Price Purchase Date PCY 85 27.65 8/31/2015 SHY 29 84.86 7/31/2015 VNQ 30 79.89 10/30/2015 TLT 19 122.74 10/30/2015 Disclosure: None.

The Alerian MLP ETF Could Be Appealing To Income-Seeking Investors

MLPs remain one of the few assets suitable for generating income in the zero interest rate environment. The Alerian MLP ETF offers a way to gain access to a diversified MLP portfolio without the credit risk of an ETN. Most of the ETF’s assets are pipeline companies, which have proven quite resistant to the decline in oil prices. The future outlook of pipeline companies is quite bright. The Alerian MLP ETF does not pass through the usual tax benefits of these assets, but retirement investors will not get them anyway. Historically, one of the best sources of income for retirees has been master limited partnerships, which are business structures that have some similarities to real estate investment trusts or business development companies but which operate primarily in the energy space. As a result of being primarily energy companies, the recent declines in both oil and natural gas prices have caused investors to largely flee from these assets. However, many master limited partnerships have not been significantly affected by the decline in energy prices and this could be creating an opportunity for income-focused investors to generate outsized profits. One of the best ways that an individual investor can take advantage of this opportunity is by purchasing units of the Alerian MLP ETF (NYSEARCA: AMLP ). Master limited partnerships are business entities designed to combine the taxation benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of a publicly-traded security. The most significantly of these taxation benefits is that a master limited partnership is considered to be a “pass-through” entity, which means that not only is an investor’s proportionate share of the company’s earnings taxed at the investor’s ordinary income tax rate (and not taxed at all at the company level), but also that the investor’s proportionate share of the company’s depreciation and amortization can also be deducted against this, reducing an investor’s tax liability. In order to obtain these tax benefits, there are only a few industries that a master limited partnership is permitted to operate in, per IRS rules. These industries are the production, processing, and transportation of crude oil, coal, or natural gas. Unfortunately, there are two caveats here. The first is that investors that hold units of a master limited partnership in a tax-advantaged account, such as an IRA, lose the ability to deduct their proportionate share of the firm’s depreciation and amortization expenses. The second is that investors that hold their partnership interests in a unit investment trust, fund, or ETF also lose this ability. Therefore, investors in the Alerian MLP ETF lose some of the tax benefits of investing in master limited partnerships directly. However, as we will shortly see, that may not be a significant concern. As the price of oil and, to a lesser extent, natural gas declined over the past sixteen months, the unit prices of many master limited partnerships have been under pressure. However, what the market has not considered is that many of the largest master limited partnerships are midstream pipeline operators and not exploration and production companies. For example, here are the largest holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF: (click to enlarge) Source: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance, Company Web Pages As the table shows, nearly all of the significant holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF are pipeline operators. In addition, for most of them, natural gas transportation is a much larger aspect of their operations than crude oil transportation, although many of these companies do operate several different types of pipeline. Notice however that few of these companies actually produce oil and natural gas themselves. This gives them an advantage in the current market. This is because of the way that the pipeline industry works. Unlike upstream oil and gas producers, pipeline companies have no direct exposure to the prices of the commodities that they transport. Instead, these companies are simply paid a fixed rate, often under a long-term contract, by the oil and gas company that actually produced the commodity to transport it over their network. These prices, aside from generally being contractually set, are also not completely subject to market forces. This is because the rates that pipeline operators charge their customers are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which typically sets rates at a level that will allow pipeline operators to enjoy relatively stable margins. Thus, there will not be significant fluctuations in rates regardless of moves in commodity prices. While pipeline operators, such as those that comprise the majority of the holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF, are largely insulated from fluctuations in commodity prices, they are vulnerable to changes in the quantity of oil, gas, and refined products shipped through their pipeline networks. This is because, as already mentioned, their customers pay a relatively fixed rate for each of a given quantity of the commodity shipped through their pipeline network. In some ways, it can be considered analogous to a consumer’s electric bill, in which the consumer pays a fixed rate for each unit of electricity consumed. Therefore, a decline in the quantity of oil, natural gas, or refined products shipped through their respective pipelines would result in a reduction of revenues. Fortunately, it does not appear likely that this scenario will occur. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, worldwide liquids demand growth is expected to exceed production growth over the next year. While global inventories increased at an average pace of 2.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2015 compared to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day in the first, this is expected to slow to an average of 1.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2015 and then to 0.8 million barrels per day in 2016. Source: Energy Information Administration It is a similar situation in the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration , the nation’s consumption of petroleum and related products will remain relatively stable until 2040, while consumption of natural gas is expected to increase from today’s levels over the same period. In addition, oil production over the same period is expected to remain relatively stable while natural gas production is expected to rise. This will result in steady to increasing business for the pipeline companies. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration As I mentioned earlier in this article, investors using retirement accounts (or other tax-advantaged accounts) cannot take advantage of the tax benefits of investing in a master limited partnership. The same is true of investors in the Alerian MLP ETF. However, there is the potential for tax consequences if a master limited partnership is held in a tax-advantaged account. This is known as the unrelated business income tax and it takes effect if the income generated by a master limited partnership came from a business activity that such companies are normally not permitted to engage in. While it is rare for a master limited partnership to do this, it is theoretically possible and if so, the tax advantages of a retirement account do not apply to that income. An investor in the Alerian MLP ETF will not be subject to this tax, should it occur. Most investors that are seeking retirement income are investing in retirement accounts and so therefore are unable to take advantage of the inherent tax benefits of master limited partnerships anyway. For these investors, the ETF may be an excellent alternative. Its 9.43% dividend yield is practically unheard of in the current market and its stable underlying asset base should provide some security to investors. This fund could be worth a look.

Lipper Fund Flows: Gains For All Groups

By Patrick Keon Lipper’s fund macro-groups (including both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]) experienced aggregate net inflows for the fourth consecutive week-taking in over $56 billion of net new money during that time. The groups had positive flows of $24.8 billion for the fund-flows week ended Wednesday, October 28, paced by money market funds, which had net inflows of $15.7 billion. The other macro-groups all posted gains for the week as well; equity funds took in $8.4 billion of net new money, while taxable bond funds (+$432 million) and municipal bond funds (+$349 million) recorded more modest increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+3.6%) and the S&P 500 Index (+3.5%) both posted strong performance numbers for the week. The indices were bolstered by improving economic data on the home front, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings reports from the technology sector, measures to ease global growth concerns, and the Federal Reserve’s leaving the window open to a possible interest rate hike before year-end. The week got off to a roaring start as both indices pocketed roughly 2.8% in combined gains during the first two trading days. Strong U.S. economic data and talk of more quantitative easing in Europe were the triggers on Day One. U.S. existing-home sales posted strong numbers for September (+4.7%), while new applications for unemployment benefits were at near-40-year lows. Across the pond, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated that the central bank may extend stimulus measures if global growth continues to be a concern. The rally continued on Day Two as tech companies Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Amazon.com all posted stronger-than-expected earnings, while China announced a surprise interest rate cut (its sixth in less than a year) in an attempt to revive its slumping economy. The market experienced another bump on the last trading day of the week when the Fed hinted that the long-awaited interest rate increase may finally arrive in December. The Fed indicated that the global landscape will become less of a concern in December’s discussion, and the determining factors will be the next two monthly jobs reports (the Fed is looking for some additional improvement) and the inflation rate (for which the Fed has set a 2% target). The week’s net inflows for money market funds (+$15.7 billion) represented the fifth week in six of positive flows, which brought over $55 billion of net new money into the group. Institutional money market funds (+$11.6 billion) and institutional U.S. government money market funds (+$8.6 billion) were the two largest contributors to the week’s gains. Equity ETFs were responsible for the lion’s share of the net inflows (+$8.2 billion) for the equity group, while equity mutual funds contributed $221 million to the total. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) (+$2.5 billion) and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLV ) (+$769 million ) had the two largest individual increases on the ETF side. For mutual funds-contradicting the trend we’ve seen all year-nondomestic equity funds had net outflows for the week (-$339 million), while domestic equity funds had positive net flows (+$560 million). Mutual funds were responsible for all the net inflows for taxable bond funds (+$660 million), while ETF products saw $228 million leave their coffers. Lipper’s High Yield Funds and Core Plus Bond Funds classifications (+$787 million and +$570 million, respectively) recorded the two largest net inflows on the mutual fund side. For ETFs, two Treasury products had the largest individual net outflows: The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) (-$602 million) and the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEI ) (-$410 million). Municipal bond mutual funds took in $148 million of net new money-for their fourth consecutive week of positive flows. Funds in Lipper’s High Yield Municipal Bond Funds classification (+$181 million) accounted for all of the week’s net inflows.