Summary Brookfield Renewable Energy yields 6.6%, over 1.6% higher than the typical utility that yields under 5%. The company is riding on the mega-trend train of a global growing demand in renewable energy, and the business has the expertise to bank on acquisition opportunities. The business forecasts dividend growth of 5-9% per year through 2020 and a long-term shareholder return of 12-15%. I’m primarily a dividend growth investor. So, current income and growth of that income is important to me. Utilities are typically known for their high yields. So, buying utilities, I expect a good part of returns to come from their dividends. The lower the price goes, the higher the yield climbs. That’s the case with Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (NYSE: BEP ), as it has fallen over 18% from a year ago. (click to enlarge) Compared to most other popular utilities, Brookfield Renewable has performed quite poorly price-wise in the past year. Particularly, I’ve put it in a chart with Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED ), Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK ), WEC Energy Group Inc (NYSE: WEC ), and Southern Co (NYSE: SO ). Source: Google Finance The utility group typically yields in the 4-5% range, and Brookfield Renewable stands out by yielding 6.6%. But, perhaps, that’s because it is viewed as higher risk with an S&P credit rating of BBB, while the others all have a rating of A-. BEP Dividend Yield (TTM) data by YCharts To consider it as a potential utility holding, the question you want answered is probably: “Is Brookfield Renewable Energy’s distribution sustainable?” First, let’s find out if it’s the kind of business you want to own. Business and Assets Brookfield Renewable has started investing in hydropower facilities 20 years ago. Today, it has become one of the biggest public pure-play renewable businesses with global assets. It focuses on accumulating long-life and low-cost assets that will continue generating cash flows. Since it requires deep operational knowledge and marketing expertise to enter the space, there’re significant barriers to entry. Brookfield Renewable has $19B worth of power assets, including around 250 power generating facilities across 14 markets in 7 countries. 81% of its 7,300 MW capacity is generated by hydroelectric facilities with about 18% generated by wind power. Currently, 50% of its assets are in the U.S., 25% are in Canada, 20% are in Brazil, and 5% are in Europe. Not Just an Income Play, But Also a Growth Play Demand for renewable energy has been growing. New investments in renewables around the globe have grown from $45B in 2004 to $270B in 2014, a CAGR of 19.6%. More recently, from 2013 to 2014, they grew at a rate of 16.4%, which is still admirable growth. Specifically, hydro power capacity grew at a CAGR of 4% over the decade, and 3.6% from 2013 to 2014. Although its growth only keeps pace with inflation, hydro power generation is low cost, and is more reliable than wind power generation. On the other hand, wind power capacity grew at a CAGR of 22.7%, and 16% from 2013 to 2014. In the last four years, Brookfield Renewable acquired and developed about 3000 MW, which is a CAGR of about 14%. How Does Brookfield Renewable Grow? Over the next 5 years, Brookfield Renewable plans to deploy over $3 billion of equity, expecting 15% returns. The focus will continue to be on hydro power generation, and acquiring global renewable assets at attractive prices. For example, in 2004, Brookfield Renewable acquired a 600MW capacity pumped storage asset with its 50% joint partner during a period of low power prices for $99M. It then entered into a 15-year contract that creates a predictable cash flow stream. At the same time, it’s not shy from selling for good profit as well. For example, in 2009, Brookfield Renewable acquired an early-stage wind power development project for $90 million. It finished constructing it and optimized operations by leveraging its wind expertise to maximize value. In July 2015, it sold the asset by attracting global bidders and generated an internal rate of return of about 30%. Like it did in North America and Brazil starting in 2011, Brookfield Renewable can continue its value creation process and repeat it in Europe, Latin America, and other new markets. A Safely Growing Dividend As Brookfield Renewable grows, it doesn’t forget to reward shareholders. From the distribution that commenced in 2011, it has grown from a quarterly distribution of 33.75 cents per share to 41.5 cents per share this year, a CAGR of 5.3%. About 90% of Brookfield Renewable’s cash flows have a 17-year average contract term with inflation-linked escalation, so its cash flows remain stable to support its distributions. Further, it targets an FFO payout ratio of 70%. With FFO expected to increase by $220-$280M a year, Brookfield Renewable forecasts distribution growth of 5-9% per year through 2020. Valuation Brookfield Renewable believes it’s intrinsically worth $34 a share even when excluding potential for rising prices, and existing project pipelines. At $25, it is discounted by over 26%. Adding in organic growth, the business believes it’s easily worth over $40 in the future, implying a significant discount of over 37%. (click to enlarge) Source: Brookfield Renewable October Investor Meeting – Slide 35 What Should Be Your Returns Expectation? Other than forecasting distribution growth of 5-9% per year through 2020, the business’s objective is to deliver long-term total returns of 12-15% to shareholders annually. With a current yield of 6.6% and the distribution estimated to grow at least 5%, that implies a rate of return of at least 11.6%, which is close to the low-end of that objective. Conclusion I just added to my position in Brookfield Renewable last week. How about you? Did you buy any utilities recently? Share in the comments below! If you like what you’ve just read, follow me! Simply click on the “Follow” link at the top of the page to receive an email notification when I publish a new article. Resources and References Brookfield Renewable October Investor Meeting ( pdf ) Brookfield Renewable November Presentation ( pdf ) Ren21 Renewables 2015 Report ( pdf )