Tag Archives: apple

Apple Supplier Qualcomm Inks Chinese Xiaomi Deal

Apple (AAPL) supplier Qualcomm (QCOM) inked a deal Wednesday with Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi, resolving a piece of a continuing overseas royalty battle that dented the chipmaker’s September-quarter sales and dampened December-quarter guidance. In early trading on the stock market today, Qualcomm stock had jumped more than 7%, near 53, on news of the Xiaomi licensing deal. Qualcomm stock, though, is down nearly 35% this year. Per the

The Wisdom Of Charlie Munger

As you may know, Charlie Munger is the low-profile partner of Warren Buffett and vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ). You may have seen Munger sitting alongside Buffett during the famous annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meetings. Charlie Munger, with the younger Warren Buffett Although Munger is six years older than Buffett, they each refer to themselves as each other’s alter egos. Both come from Omaha. Both worked in the same grocery store in Omaha when they were kids – although at different times. At one time, Munger and Buffett were so close that they spoke on a daily basis. Today, they say they don’t have to because they already know what the other one is thinking. Looking at their personal balance sheets, Buffett is by far the more successful investor. Munger’s net worth is a mere $1.2 billion compared with Buffett’s $63 billion. Yet, when they sit side-by-side in interviews, it soon becomes clear that Munger is the more interesting character, with the broader range of both interests and knowledge. Buffett is quick to admit as much. The Mind of Munger Munger prides himself on being an intellectual iconoclast, relishing his role both as a curmudgeon and a foil to Buffett’s folksy image. He is a smart guy, having graduated second in his class at Harvard Law School, and takes pride in having pissed off most of the faculty in the process. Bill Gates said Munger has the “best 30-second mind in the world.” In my view, Munger is a classic INTJ personality, based on the Myers-Briggs test . He is a “mastermind” who thinks in terms of latticework intellectual models. Folks with this type of personality also account for a disproportionate number of the world’s top investors. Munger believes in studying the great ideas across all the disciplines not only to generate investment ideas, but also to live a rich and interesting life. While Buffett cites Dale Carnegie’s “How to Win Friends and Influence People” as a key book in his life, Munger quotes Greek stoics like Epictetus and Roman lawyers such as Cicero. It’s not that Munger never read Dale Carnegie. It’s just that he probably couldn’t be bothered to put what he read into practice. Five of Munger’s Big Ideas Munger’s thinking is eclectic, drawn from a wide range of disciplines and insights. Since he never has written these down, you need to tease them out of his occasional speeches to graduating law school and business school classes. Here are five of Munger’s insights that stuck with me, among the many. 1. Ignore the Propeller Heads of Modern Finance Munger disdains the army of academics who created the discipline of modern finance. He argues that defining financial risk as a function of a security’s volatility – the fundamental insight that won Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990 – has deluded generations of investors. Like Buffett, Munger was weaned on the mother’s milk of Ben Graham’s philosophy of value investing. But Munger also outgrew Ben Graham along the way, opening himself to the ideas of Philip Fisher. Fisher, the famed Silicon Valley-based investor, focused more on the idea of investing in high-quality companies at a reasonable price. Munger thus transformed Graham’s idea of a value-based “margin of safety” into the idea of a “moat” – a sustainable competitive advantage over time. This moat – say, a brand or some intellectual property – was the key to a company’s ability to generate returns for investors over a long period of time. Buy the right stock in the right company and you may never have to sell it. 2. Avoid Difficult Decisions Munger believes you should avoid difficult decisions. By limiting yourself to investing in the most simple and straightforward investment ideas, you are much more likely to be successful. Munger also recommends that you play to your strengths. This applies both to life and investing. Sadly, this strategy of “avoidance” demands a level of discipline that few investors possess. But if you’re 5″2″, you don’t make playing in the NBA your long-term goal. IQ won’t help you. Stick to what you’re naturally good at doing. 3. Don’t Trust Wall Street Munger disdains what he terms Wall Street’s “locker room culture,” which puts winning above everything else. This leads to counterproductive competitiveness and a willingness to push ethical boundaries just to keep up with the Joneses. This culture of greed and envy – two sins you should work hard to avoid, says Munger – are the source of much of the financial industry’s problems. 4. The Importance of Trust Munger emphasizes trust in investing. That’s why Berkshire invests in companies with sound and ethical managements who are motivated more by the compulsion to do a good job than by mere financial rewards. This emphasis on trust leads to some surprisingly anachronistic business practices. Berkshire’s acquisition of See’s Candies was done on a single sheet of paper. This was despite the fact that Munger is not only a lawyer, but also has his name on one of the most exclusive law firms in the country – Munger, Tolles and Olson, based in Los Angeles. 5. Understand the “Psychology of Human Misjudgment” Perhaps Munger’s most important insight is an understanding that human psychology is the key to successful investing – or what he has termed “the psychology of human misjudgment.” As with his other insights, these appear only sporadically in his speeches and writing. The recent work of behavioral economists and psychologists such as Richard Thaler or Daniel Kahneman echo some of Munger’s own views. Still, these academics’ insights pale in comparison to Munger’s cross-disciplinary “real world” approach. “Mr. Market’s mood swings” – “fear” and “greed” – as described by Ben Graham in “The Intelligent Investor” are a key part of both Buffett’s and Munger’s investment philosophy. But it’ll be a while before behavioral economists start writing on the impact of “envy” on your investment returns. That’s not the kind of research that’s going to get you tenure at an elite university. The Miracle of Munger If you take a step back, what Munger and Buffett have achieved together is astonishing. How is it that a couple of old guys sitting in Pasadena, California; and Omaha, Nebraska, became two of the most successful investors in the world, while generations of the best and brightest on Wall Street have come and gone, never to be heard from again? Munger would say it all comes down to “accurate thinking.” If that’s all it is, accurate thinking is the rarest of qualities, indeed.

TerraForm Will Survive, But Needs To Slow Down

Summary TerraForm Power’s stock has plunged 70% year to date. The market value was high due to its aggressive expansion plan. The company will survive, but needs to slow down. If you’ve believed in SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE ) and TerraForm Power Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TERP ) growth story and have been a shareholder of either company, you’ve probably had a hard time falling asleep at night. It’s been devastating for TerraForm’s shareholders, as the shares have plunged over 70% year to date. So, what makes investors worried even when the company has been able to grow its CAFD (cash available for distribution) and raise dividends consistently since it went public in July 2014? (click to enlarge) (Source: TerraForm Power Investor Presentation) TerraForm only had 808 MW in projects generating $107 million in CAFD initially. After only one year, the company now has over 1900 MW in assets, with a projected $225 CAFD in 2015. The project pipeline and cash flow distribution growth are impressive, but not the stock price. Expansion comes at a price. Clearly, the market now focuses on TerraForm’s liquidity and balance sheet, believing the company’s rapid expansion is sustainable. First of all, I would like to estimate how much money the company is obligated to pay (up to December 2016), based on its scheduled debt repayment, projected dividend distribution and committed funds for acquisitions. Current portion of long-term debt and lease obligation: $115 million (to be paid by September 2016) Invenergy acquisition: $2.05 billion Vivint Solar (NYSE: VSLR ) deal: $962 million Payments (2016) on maturities of long-term debt as of September 30: $58 million Dividend payment: $112 million (based on 80 million class A common stock outstanding) Interest payment and some other payments, based on its agreement with SunEdison (IDRs) In total, TerraForm needs to come up with approximately $ 3.3 billion for its acquisitions, debt repayment, lease obligations, dividend payment and other payments in the next 12 months. To put it in perspective, the company generated $105 million cash from operating activities in the first nine months, and it expects to generate $225 million of CAFD for 2015. So, the question is: Has TerraForm addressed funding shortfalls, if there are any? Let’s take a look at the company’s current financing plan: Unrestricted cash: $821 million (including $160 million in UK refinancing proceeds) Revolver: $725 million Project debt (CA Ridge): $174 million TERP Holdco Capital: $388 million Assumed project debt: $358 million (subject to lender consent) Project debt/Term loan/Holdco bonds/Warehouse facilities: $1.27 billion (in progress) Including the $1.27 million financing options in progress, TerraForm has about $3.6 billion available to fund its commitments and fulfill other obligations, if needed. The management is quite confident that all financing will be made available by Q1 2016. This seems quite desperate, as the company plans to deplete all its cash and most likely its revolver for acquisition and debt repayment. TERP’s unrestricted cash on-hand is approximately $800 million and our liquidity available is approximately $1.5 billion. We have earmarked this cash and liquidity to fund our existing commitments, including the pending Invenergy and Vivint acquisitions. – TerraForm Power Q3 Earnings Call Transcript While TerraForm is capable of funding its obligations and acquisitions given listed options, this will further bury the company in heavy debt. Let’s not forget, the company still has about $2.4 billion long-term debt outstanding as of September 30, 2015. Senior debt 2023 – $950 million (Issued for First Wind and previous revolver repayment) Senior debt 2025 – $300 million (issued for Invenergy) Other project debt and construction financing – $1.28 billion After its acquisition of Vivint and Invenergy assets, TerraForm will have over $4 billion in debt, with little cash on hand. It will be difficult for the company to further grow its pipeline given its highly leveraged balance sheet and the current market sentiment. Even if TerraForm can obtain the needed capital in the near future, it will likely pay a much higher interest rate. Debt is usually cheaper than equity, but only to a certain point. Investors may argue that TerraForm will add another 1.4GW to its pipeline once the acquisition is completed. However, for companies like TerraForm, the payback does not happen overnight. If the company grows its CAFD 70% in 2016 (management refuses to provide a guidance for 2016, saying it will focus on closing deals first), it should generate approximately $95 million CAFD each quarter to pay dividend, interest expense and other obligations. Conclusion Financially and strategically, TerraForm Power went too far, too fast (following SunEdison’s path), and it needs to slow down. Corporate governance is another issue given its connection with SunEdison. As I am writing this, David Tepper, the founder of Appaloosa Management, just sent a letter raising concerns regarding conflict of interests between TerraForm and SunEdison. This is another important issue that investors need to pay attention to. TerraForm had financing lined up for its committed acquisitions, and should not have problems paying liabilities in the next few years. But it will have little room to grow in the short term given its highly leveraged balance sheet and depressed stock price. Clearly, investors now focuses more on the company’s financial strength rather than how fast it can grow its dividend and pipeline. Going forward, TerraForm should focus on the profitability of projects rather than blindly expanding by acquiring assets regardless of project quality. Sometimes we need to take a break and slow down, and I hope TerraForm has learnt this lesson.