Tag Archives: apple

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 1/27/16

Major averages rose on slightly higher volume with the narrowest of the major indexes, the Dow Jones Industrials, posting a so-called follow-through day. Oil bounced but is trading lower today. Apple (AAPL) is also trading lower in premarket trading after reporting the sales of its iPhone grew at the slowest pace since introducing the iPhone in 2007. AAPL consequently is projecting is quarterly revenues to be well below estimates which, if realized, would mark its worst quarterly revenue decline since 2001. Both oil and AAPL are putting pressure on futures which are currently off almost half a percent. The Fed concludes its two days of talks today at 2 pm EST when it will release a policy statement. The question will be whether they stay their course on additional rate hikes this year, proclaiming their confidence in the economic recovery, or whether they will revert to their dovish stance of gradual rate hikes as needed by acknowledging the recent market turmoil at home and abroad is cause for concern. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a rate hike in March at 34% and in April at 42%. Gil Morales puts the odds of the Fed hiking rates at 0%, but how the market reacts remains to be seen. Indeed, should the market correction worsen, Dr K puts the odds of the Fed launching QE4 at 100%.  

MLPs: A Great Opportunity In The Near Future, Just Not Yet

Home Portfolio News Articles StockTalk Marketplace PRO Seeking Alpha WHERE DO YOU WANT TO GO? Seeking Alpha home page » My portfolio page » Latest Financial Analysis & Opinion » TOP NEWS Apple drags down futures Boeing stung by big guidance cut Apple lower after mixed results, light guidance Mortgage applications move higher again Biogen tops estimates Mixed earnings report from UTX Toyota remains world’s top-selling automaker See latest news » TOP ARTICLES My Top 10 Monthly Dividend Stocks: Updated Apple’s (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook On Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript Wall Street Breakfast: Equities Cautious Ahead Of Fed Facebook For Investors? Introducing SA Social 5 Huge Misunderstandings About The Current Investing Environment Why Dip Buyers Will Get Clobbered: The U.S. Economy Isn’t Doing ‘Just Fine’ Why MannKind Is Heading Towards Bankruptcy All That Matters From AT&T Earnings Two Harbors’ MSR Black Hole Evaluating Bankruptcy Risk In The Energy Sector Using Altman’s Z2-Score Top Authors   |      RSS Feeds   |  Sitemap   |  About Us   |  Contact Us Terms of Use | Privacy | Xignite quote data | © 2016 Seeking Alpha

Using Momentum And Hedge Funds To Build A Better Portfolio

Welles Wilder revolutionized the investment world in 1978 when he developed the Relative Strength Indicator (“RSI”). RSI was one of several new technical indicators that helped individual investors move away from static “60/40” or “70/30” stock/bond asset allocations as trading commissions plummeted in the wake of discount brokerages displacing more expensive “full-service” offerings. Now, nearly forty years later, Berkeley Square Capital Management has a new take on RSI – and the traditional “70/30” allocation. The firm combines the two concepts, while adjusting RSI from a short-term indicator based on the past 14 days to a longer-term momentum indicator based on the past 12 months , and also adding hedge funds to the allocation mix – “50/30/20.” What’s more, Berkeley Square’s momentum strategy differentiates between the best and worst sectors within each asset class, taking advantage of reduced commission charges by rebalancing its portfolios as frequently as warranted to maximize risk-adjusted returns. Sector Breakdowns Rather than allocating 50% to the S&P 500, 30% to the Barclays Aggregate, and 20% to the HFRI Hedge Fund-Weighted Composite (“FWC”), Berkeley Square breaks each of the broad indices down into its composite sectors, and then assigns RSI rankings to each. The top five sectors from each asset class are then weighted to comprise the total “50/30/20” portfolio. Among equities, Berkeley Square looks at the S&P 500’s ten composite sectors: Energy Materials Industrials Consumer discretionary Consumer staples Health care Financials Information technology Telecommunications Utilities For fixed-income, Berkeley Square looks at the following Barclays Total Return indices: S. Corporate Investment Grade Intermediate Corporate Long U.S. Corporate S. MBS GNMA S. Long Credit S. Aggregate Government/ Credit And for hedge funds, the following HFRI strategy style indices are considered: ED: Merger Arbitrage EH: Equity Market Neutral EH: Short Bias Emerging Markets (Total) Equity Hedge (Total) Event-Driven (Total) Fund of Funds Composite Macro (Total) Frequency of Rebalancing The frequency of portfolio rebalancing should always be scaled to maximize risk-adjusted returns. According to Berkeley Square’s findings, equity holdings are best rebalanced monthly, which has historically yielded a return per unit of risk of 0.76 – compared to risk-adjusted returns of 0.56 for annual rebalancing, 0.59 for semi-annual, and 0.66 for quarterly. By contrast, bond holdings perform best when rebalanced annually, and hedge-fund holdings when rebalanced quarterly. Independent Returns Adding hedge funds to the asset allocation has slightly improved returns, historically, but more greatly improved risk-adjusted returns. As Modern Portfolio Theorist Harry Markowitz said, “Expected return is a desirable thing and variance of a return is an undesirable thing” – so rational investors should prefer more stable returns to more volatile returns, all other things being equal. From 1991 through 2014, the S&P 500 Total Return Index generated compound annualized returns of 10.18%, compared to the HFRI FWC’s 10.81%. But the S&P’s annualized standard deviation of 18.39% yielded a return per risk unit of 0.55, while the HFRI FWC’s much lower 12.11% annualized standard deviation yielded a 0.89 return per unit of risk. The Barclays Aggregate Index of bonds, by contrast, yielded much lower annualized returns of 6.39%, but with even lower annualized volatility of 4.97%, its return per unit of risk was the highest at 1.29. Putting it all Together What’s important, of course, is how the three asset classes act together, within a single portfolio: According to Berkeley Square’s research, the “50/30/20” portfolio – even without rebalancing – outperformed “70/30” with annualized returns of 9.58% from 1991 through 2014, compared to the “70/30” portfolio’s returns of 9.48% over that same time. More importantly, “50/30/20” outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, with a return per unit of risk of 0.85 compared to the “70/30” portfolio’s 0.72. But what about when Berkeley Square’s dynamic reallocation system was followed? In this case, the “50/30/20” portfolio’s annualized returns were boosted to 10.92% with return per unit of risk of 1.16, besting even the long-only S&P 500 Total Return Index’s 10.18% returns, and with much less volatility. For more information, download a pdf copy of the white paper . Jason Seagraves contributed to this article.