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Best And Worst Q1’16: Consumer Staples ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Consumer Staples sector ranks first out of the ten sectors as detailed in our Q1’16 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Consumer Staples sector ranked first as well. It gets our Attractive rating, which is based on an aggregation of ratings of 9 ETFs and 15 mutual funds in the Consumer Staples sector. See a recap of our Q4’15 Sector Ratings here . Figure 1 ranks from best to worst all nine Consumer Staples ETFs and Figure 2 shows the five best and worst-rated Consumer Staples mutual funds. Not all Consumer Staples sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 17 to 116). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Staples sector should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2. It is rare that one of the worst ETFs in this sector hold enough quality stocks to earn an Attractive-or-better rating. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio (MUTF: FSAVX ) is excluded from Figure 2 because its total net assets (TNA) are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: VDC ) is the top-rated Consumer Staples ETF and the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund (MUTF: VCSAX ) is the top-rated Consumer Staples mutual fund. VDC earns a Very Attractive rating and VCSAX earns an Attractive rating. The PowerShares DWA Consumer Staples Momentum Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PSL ) is the worst-rated Consumer Staples ETF and the ICON Consumer Staples Fund (MUTF: ICRAX ) is the worst-rated Consumer Staples mutual fund. PSL earns a Neutral rating and ICRAX earns a Very Dangerous rating. 121 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Consumer Staples stocks. Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT ) continues to be one of our favorite stocks held by VDC and earns an Attractive rating. Since 1998, Wal-Mart has been uniquely consistent in growing after-tax profit ( NOPAT ) by 9% compounded annually and earning a double-digit return on invested capital ( ROIC ), which is currently 11%. Additionally, Wal-Mart has generated over $57 billion, cumulatively, in free cash flow over the past five years. Overblown concerns about Wal-Mart’s business model pushed the stock down over 25% last year, which has made shares greatly undervalued. At its current price of $64/share, WMT has a price to economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.8. This ratio means that the market expects Wal-Mart’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 20%. However, if Wal-Mart can grow NOPAT by just 2% compounded annually over the next decade , the stock is worth $98/share today – a 53% upside. The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by ICRAX and earns a Dangerous rating. Over the past five years, J.M Smucker’s NOPAT has declined by 2% compounded annually while its ROIC has fallen from 8% to 5%. Despite the deterioration of the business, SJM is up over 20% in the past two years, which has left shares significantly overvalued. To justify its current price of $122/share, SJM must grow NOPAT by 13% compounded annually for the next 12 years . This expectation seems awfully optimistic given SJM’s inability to grow NOPAT at all in the past five years. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Consumer Staples ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme.

ETF Trends For 2016: Part 2, Robo-Advisors

In part 1 of this series we reviewed the growth of the ETF market in 2015 and introduced the series by covering currency hedged products. In part 2, we are going to take a brief look at a well-covered topic that could have a huge impact on the way ETFs are utilized: Robo-Advisors Robo-Advisors & The Rise Of The Machine In the last few years investors have not only embraced ETFs but the ways by which they manage their ETF investments. Robo-Advisors are, according to Investopedia: Online wealth management services that provide automated, algorithm-based portfolio management advice without the use of human financial planners. While older, wealthy investors have traditionally been wary of putting their money in non-human hands and valued human guidance, younger clients are more and more frequently selecting robo-advisors. According to a recent Spectrum study : 17% of investors 35 and younger and 11% of those ages 36-44 currently use a robo-adviser, compared with 6% of those 45-54, 4% of those 55-64 and 4% of those 65 and older. Younger investors are, as a rule, more willing to shift where their money is invested and try new technologies. If one platform doesn’t work out, they won’t waste time to see if the company improves next year, and there are more than enough platforms to try something different. Firms like Betterment and Wealthfront have exploded on this relatively new scene, with over $3 billion and $2 billion in AUM, respectively. However, well established financial firms like Schwab (NYSE: SCHW ), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK ), Fidelity and Vanguard have all seen the benefits of creating their own robo-platforms as a new source for revenue. After attending the 20th Annual IMN Global Indexing and ETFs conference in Scottsdale this December, Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management summarized the audience’s feelings on robo-advisors: The crowd here is very curious about how to implement the technology; there isn’t any concern about the B2C robos as competitors. The prevailing feeling is that their AUM growth has already peaked while Vanguard and Schwab have stolen their thunder. While the conference audience, mostly made up of RIAs and financials advisors, might think this market has reached its peak, market research data tends to disagree. Below is the expected growth in AUM by robo-advisors from consulting firm A.T. Kearney, as reported by Bloomberg . Click to enlarge Clearly, this is a trend to watch in the coming years, but what will it mean to ETF investors and issuers? During an interview with FinancialPlanning.com, Dodd Kittsley, head of ETF strategy and national accounts at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management of Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB ), stated the following when asked how robo-advisors affect ETFs: It really opens an avenue to a different investor base. I think certainly that’s going to be a continued catalyst for growth in the industry. For these robo-advisors, certainly much of their objective is to deliver strategic allocation models for long-term investors; and ETFs, when you think about it, are the purest way to execute on an asset allocation strategy. If you just finished this piece and find yourself wondering if robo-advisors are for you, I would refer you to David Fabian ‘s advice from 2014, when robos were just starting to gain traction in the market: At the end of the day, each investor considering a robo-advisor over a traditional asset manager should compare the cost savings with any additional value-added services that may be offered. In addition, an asset manager may have a unique philosophy that aligns more closely with your own method of investing. This can lead to peace of mind when choosing a third party to be the steward of your hard-earned nest egg. Robo-advisors lower the barriers to entry that existed in financial markets, much like online trading platforms opened up markets for part-time trading. As with part-time trading, this is not a one-fits-all solution, but another tool for investors to consider. As someone who watches the development of the ETF market for a living, I see robo-advisors as another gateway for exposing a new generation of investors to ETFs, significantly strengthening ETFs’ position as the fund vehicle of choice in the market. Stay tuned for part 3 next week, which will focus on the ETF fee war and concluding thoughts for the ETF industry trends in 2016.