Tag Archives: apple
General Mills (GIS)
On Friday, I sent out an e-mail to our e-mail subscribers, like we always do whenever we are about to have a transaction in our portfolio. I don’t usually address our portfolio transactions on the blog, but I thought I should clear something up. Some readers have been questioning why we recently sold out of certain stock positions, specifically General Mills (NYSE: GIS ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ). These sales have been several months in the making honestly. Over the past two months, I have written a couple of posts about changes to our Portfolio Allocation and the ETFs that will make up the core of our future portfolio. Part of the focus of our portfolio has been to generate income from the dividend growth in our portfolio, but the other part of our focus is to grow our portfolios’ value by investing in undervalued business… that will prosper over the long term. Part of that concept means that we do need to take profits when the value of some of our assets become overvalued. A while back we sold out of our utility company investments, for instance. At that time (and currently), we felt that the valuations and growth prospects that the market was assuming did not justify our continued investment. Something similar has occurred over the past several months, in regards to consumer staples companies. While I consider General Mills a good company, it’s a mature business and its model is dependent on consumers continuing to pay a premium for the company’s name brand products and agricultural commodities remaining low. Therefore, I don’t believe it has the characteristics of a company we should own over the next 30 years. Profits over the past couple of years have been goosed by unusually low agricultural input costs, low transportation costs, and good consumer demand. Will these trends continue? I don’t know, but given the company’s current metrics, I am happy to book our profits. The other part of why we took our profits, is I am not particularly optimistic about the global economy. That outlook, which may or may not be justified, and our desire to shift our core holdings over to passive index investments… encouraged us that some of our capital was better in cash for the time being. While I never expect to time our portfolio’s transition from mostly individual stocks… to mostly passive index investments… perfectly, it makes sense to me to do some selling while those assets are at elevated levels. For the past few years, dividend growth investments have been very popular with investors…largely as a result of the current (artificially) low interest rate environment. Therefore, some consumer staples and utility companies are trading at price to earnings ratios approaching 30. That wouldn’t concern me at all if the underlying businesses were growing at a rapid pace, but instead, many are only growing (revenues and profits) at 2%-6% annually. At some point, the companies will likely need to grow faster, or the share prices will need to come down. The exception being if we are entering a sustained period of mild deflation, but that situation comes with its own problems. I have been called everything from a contrarian to a “nut” on this blog, but I have found most readers receptive to our ideas. I don’t know that I am really a contrarian and I don’t strive to invest the opposite of how most people invest. I just try to think independently, and follow the path that’s best for me and my family. So our portfolio is largely in cash and we’re happy to remain that way for the near term. I think we will have dramatically better investment opportunities within the next year. If I can leave you with a concept, without going on about all the virtues of cash, it’s that in the current economic environment Cash is Not Trash! In round numbers, our sale of General Mills freed up $11,500 in capital. We had owned the shares for about 2 years and enjoyed capital appreciation of 20.5%, as well as 2 years’ worth of dividend income. The cash has been added to our growing “war chest”. We will reinvest this capital in the global equity markets as soon as we see a great long-term opportunity, but we also invest a small portion of our portfolio in deep value investments. Time will tell what our next investment will be, but for now, I am happy to hold plenty of cash and wait for the proverbial “fat pitch”. Do you ever book profits, or are you strictly a “buy and hold” investor? Disclosure: I do not currently own shares in GIS or PG. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation for anyone to buy, sell, or hold any equities. I am not a financial professional.
Apple’s Clash With Feds Over IPhone Encryption Not Hurting Brand
U.S. consumers are largely ambivalent about Apple ’s ( AAPL ) fight with the FBI over unlocking an encrypted iPhone, according to a new survey. Investment bank Piper Jaffray surveyed 1,002 U.S. consumers regarding their perception of Apple’s brand in the face of its legal clash with federal authorities. “Net-net, the data showed that there was no brand impact from Apple’s decision to refuse to unlock an encrypted iPhone, with essentially equal numbers of consumers viewing the brand more positively and less positively, with the rest viewing it the same or unaware of the situation,” Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research report Tuesday. Last week, a federal judge sided with the FBI and ordered Apple to create software to hack into an iPhone 5C belonging to one of the shooters in the Dec. 2 attack in San Bernardino, Calif., that left 14 people dead. Apple CEO Tim Cook said that complying with the order would set a “dangerous precedent” that would undermine the security and privacy for all iPhone users. Piper Jaffray’s online survey showed that 24.1% of respondents viewed Apple’s brand more favorably in light of its refusal to hack its iPhone security protections, while 23% viewed the brand less favorably. Of the rest, 17.8% said that they viewed the brand the same, and 35.1% said that they didn’t know anything about the story. “We believe that the U.S. market is likely more politically influenced than international markets (i.e. international markets would skew more favorably towards Apple if it continued to refuse to unlock the phone in question), but generally believe that regardless of the outcome of the dispute, it will not have a meaningful impact on Apple’s brand,” Munster said. On Monday, Apple CEO Tim Cook called for the formation of a government commission or panel to discuss the broader issues involved with smartphone encryption. Meanwhile, Facebook ( FB ) CEO Mark Zuckerberg came out in support of Apple in the case. Speaking at the Mobile World Congress trade show in Barcelona, Spain, Zuckerberg said that weakening the digital security of technology companies was a bad idea, the New York Times reported . “I don’t think building backdoors is the way to go, so we’re pretty sympathetic to Tim and Apple,” Zuckerberg said. In an interview with the Financial Times, Microsoft ( MSFT ) co-founder Bill Gates sided with the government in the case, saying that Apple should help the FBI in this instance. However, in a later interview with Bloomberg, Gates softened his stance, PC W0rld reported . Ultimately, he said, Congress will decide the issue of smartphone encryption. Apple stock was down 1.5% in afternoon trading in the stock market today .