Tag Archives: apple

S&P 500 Again Shows Weakness: Go Short With These ETFs

After the furious rally since February 12, the S&P 500 has again lost momentum and slipped into the red from a year-to-date look. This is especially true, as investors are apprehensive as to whether the stocks will be able to sustain their gains in the coming weeks given the bleak corporate earnings picture and renewed concerns on global growth uncertainty (read: Top and Flop Zones of Q1 and Their ETFs ). As we are heading into a weak Q1 earnings season, volatility is expected to increase though stabilization in energy prices and the dollar could act as a catalyst. According to the Zacks Earnings Trend , earnings growth will be deep in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive quarter with 10.9% estimated decline. In fact, the magnitude of negative Q1 revisions was the highest among recent quarters with 14 out of the 16 Zacks’ sectors witnessing negative revisions over the past three months. Utilities and retail were the only two exceptions. Revenues will likely be down 2.2% on modestly lower net margins. The release of minutes this week showed that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates in April, signaling that weak global growth could hurt the ongoing recovery in the U.S. economy. Further, continued rise in the Japanese currency dampened investors’ faith in central banks’ ability to boost growth across the globe. All these factors coupled with relatively higher valuations have led to risk-off trade, pushing the safe havens higher (read: Q1 ETF Asset Report: Safe Havens Pop; Currency Hedged Drop ). Added to the downbeat note is the International Monetary Fund warning. The agency stated that problems in emerging markets, such as China, could lead to poor stock performance in the U.S. and other developed countries. Given this, the S&P 500 will likely see rough trading ahead and investors could easily tap this opportune moment by going short on the index. There are a number of inverse or leveraged inverse products in the market that offer inverse (opposite) exposure to the index. Below, we highlight those and some of the key differences between each: ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SH ) This fund provides unleveraged inverse exposure to the daily performance of the S&P 500 index. It is the most popular and liquid ETF in the inverse equity space with AUM of nearly $2.5 billion and average daily volume of nearly 7 million shares. The fund charges 90 bps in annual fees. ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SDS ) This fund seeks two times (2x) leveraged inverse exposure to the index, charging 91 bps in fees. It is also relatively popular and liquid having amassed nearly $2 billion in AUM and more than 13.5 million shares in average daily volume. ProShares Ultra S&P500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SSO ) With AUM of $1.6 billion, this fund also seeks to deliver twice the return of the S&P 500 Index, charging investors 0.89% in expense ratio. It trades in solid volumes of more than 4.6 million shares a day on average. ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (NYSEARCA: SPXU ) Investors having a more bearish view and higher risk appetite could find SPXU interesting as the fund provides three times (3x) inverse exposure to the index. Though the ETF charges a slightly higher fee of 93 bps per year, trading volume is solid, exchanging more than 6.6 million shares per day on average. It has amassed $728.3 million in its asset base so far. Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares (NYSEARCA: SPXS ) Like SPXU, this product also provides three times inverse exposure to the index but comes with 2 bps higher fees. It trades in solid volume of about 6.6 million shares and has AUM of $476.8 million. Bottom Line As a caveat, investors should note that such products are suitable only for short-term traders as these are rebalanced on a daily basis. Still, for ETF investors who are bearish on the equity market for the near term, either of the above products could make an interesting choice. Clearly, a near-term short could be intriguing for those with high-risk tolerance, and a belief that the “trend is the friend” in this corner of the investing world. Original Post

Alphabet Upgraded As Forex Headwinds Calm, Ads Strong

Alphabet ( GOOGL ), the parent of search leader Google, got a ratings upgrade and price target boost on Monday from Pivotal Research, which said it expects foreign-exchange headwinds to calm. Pivotal upgraded Alphabet stock to buy from hold, as well as hiking its price target to 970 from 800. Alphabet stock was up a fraction in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 765. Alphabet reports Q1 earnings on April 21. Pivotal analyst Brian Wieser wrote in a research report Monday that he estimates Alphabet will log 16% revenue growth year over year in Q1, or 18% revenue growth excluding traffic acquisition costs — the fees Google pays to other companies to carry its ads. Alphabet’s dominant position in digital advertising alongside Facebook ( FB ) “is fundamentally unchanged, and we continue to expect Google to sustain double-digit growth rates in advertising on an ongoing basis,” wrote Wieser. The same factors that led to Alphabet’s growth in Q4 will continue, he said, including revenue from Google video wing YouTube and programmatic display-related ads. Wieser said he is watching display ad revenue because that growing share of Alphabet’s overall revenue mix is generally less profitable than search ads, “largely because of the needs to continually innovate on related products and provide service and marketing support to those products.” Programmatic advertising, for example, “does not eliminate the need for costly humans in the process of trading media, but instead requires different humans to manage these businesses,” he wrote. “This issue is exacerbated with YouTube, where content delivery and capital costs are even higher, and content costs are now a factor that both drives growth, but also constrains profitability.” Alphabet’s non-core, or “Other Bets,” are “likely to continue dragging on Alphabet overall , although at least their scale is relatively minimal overall,” said Wieser. For example, Nest, the smart home device maker Google bought for $3.2 billion in 2014 to compete with Apple ( AAPL ) in that growing market, is falling short of expectations, news site Re/Code reported last month. ITG Investment Research analyst Steve Weinstein, said in an industry note Monday he expects to see Alphabet post revenue of roughly $2 billion for “Google other” and $150 million for “Other Bets” for Q1, with total gross revenue coming in at roughly $20.57 billion, slightly ahead of consensus of $20.3 billion.

Can Facebook Stock Hold 50-Day Support Amid Usage Fears, F8 Show?

Facebook ( FB ) is falling in quick turnover for a second session in a row amid concerns that users are not sharing as many personal posts. The Information reported last week that Facebook saw a 21% drop in original posts from mid-2014 to mid-2015, and that it is working to correct that decline. Meanwhile, privately held social media competitor Snapchat is all about personal shares. Facebook-owned Instagram is also a hub for personal posts. The social media giant has indicated that it’s just the type of sharing that has changed on its main platform, not the level of sharing. Facebook’s annual F8 developer conference begins tomorrow, where chatbots are expected to be a hot topic. That could open a new revenue stream for businesses looking to interact with their customers on a social platform. But tech giants still have a lot to learn when it comes to chatbots. Microsoft ’s ( MSFT ) experiment with teen chatbot Tay quickly went south. Facebook shares dropped 0.5% in heavy volume, breaching the 50-day line in intraday trade. If the stock is able to find support at the 50-day line, then it’s not necessarily in trouble. But if it breaks through that level in heavy volume, that would be bearish. Shares are trading 6% below a cup-with-handle base buy point of 117.09. Microsoft is trading 4% below its late-December high and a consolidation buy point at 56.95, which is 10 cents above the high. The stock was up 1% midday Monday. Facebook last week rolled out its Live platform globally, with expanded features — edging into Twitter ’s ( TWTR ) realm, which includes its Periscope live streaming platform. Twitter is still searching for positive catalysts to revive its shares. Last week, it signed a pact with the NFL to live stream 10 Thursday Night Football games. Twitter is in an extended downtrend, trading 68% below its 52-week high. The stock edged 0.4% higher Monday. Among other widely held tech stocks, Google owner Alphabet ( GOOGL ) is working on a cup-with-handle base with a 777.41 buy point. It’s trading 2% below that level, up 0.4% in intraday trade. And Apple ( AAPL ) was back above the 110 price level, rising 1.2%. Apple is nearing its downward sloping 200-day line, but its recent attempts to retake that level have failed. Apple stock is 18% below its late-April peak. Image provided by Shutterstock .