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My ‘Wisdom’ On Robo Advisors

Tadas Viskanta has put together a nice collection of opinions regarding the new “Robo Advisor” trend. Here’s my general view: “Robo “advisors” aren’t really advisors. They’re robo asset allocators. The robotic allocations are susceptible to flawed risk profiling and inefficient portfolio management for most people with a sophisticated financial plan. The business of asset allocation is too personal and customized to ever become fully automated so the best solution is some integration between the human and robot sides.” These are great new services, but you have to be careful with them. When there’s no advisor involved, you’re highly susceptible to poor risk profiling and behavioral problems along the way. After all, a robo advisor doesn’t help you stick to an asset allocation or help you manage it along the way. And I’ll be blunt about the risk profiling process for many of these services – it’s dangerously insufficient. While these are fantastic low-cost options for many investors, I do think they carry their own unique risks if they’re not utilized appropriately. In summary, I’d argue: If you have trouble with your own behavioral biases and maintaining an appropriate asset allocation, then you might consider a low-cost advisor to help you implement the appropriate plan and maintain it. Additionally, if you’re in need of more planning services, then it’s worth bundling a low-cost advisor with your portfolio management services. What’s “low-cost” in today’s world? I’d argue it’s anything less than 0.5% per year. If you don’t have trouble with your own behavioral biases and maintaining an appropriate asset allocation through market gyrations, then you should just buy a simple Vanguard or Schwab ETF allocation and perform annual maintenance, thereby cutting out the extra fees the robos or advisors charge for rebalancing and harvesting tax losses. If you don’t have trouble with your own behavioral biases and maintaining an appropriate asset allocation through market gyrations, but you’re too disorganized or busy to rebalance and harvest losses , then you should consider one of the human PLUS robo options, such as the Vanguard or Schwab offering. I wrote much more about this topic a few years back.

A Sneak Peek Inside Ray Dalio’s Portfolio

Following the lead of top investors is a time proven way to earn wealth in the financial markets. The path to wealth in the markets is already well marked by the proven footsteps of great investors. One of the most iconic leading names in today’s financial market is a hedge fund manager named Ray Dalio. The average investor may not have even heard of Mr. Dalio but he is a well-known figure in the hedge fund world. He has earned a place as one of the top 100 wealthiest investors on earth by managing the $140 billion Bridgewater Associates hedge fund. Bridgewater is the largest hedge fund on earth. What I like most about Mr. Dalio is that he is far from the typical hedge fund manager. He is a big game bow hunter, a meditation practitioner, and a firm believer in radical honesty. I learned a tremendous amount by studying his writings and firmly believe that all investors can learn important lessons from this one of a kind billionaire. This article will serve as a brief introduction to Ray Dalio’s background, philosophy, as well as providing a sneak peek into his top portfolio holdings.Ray was not born wealthy. The son of a jazz musician and stay at home mom, he knew he wanted money to spend. His first job was the typical employment of suburban youth, a newspaper route. When he turned 12 years old, he started working as a golf caddy. It was this job that would place him on the road to vast wealth. Carrying the golf clubs of businessmen from hole to hole, he overheard much talk about the stock market and investing. This first exposure to the markets lit a fire in him that burns brightly to this day! Acting on his curiosity, he purchased his initial shares of stock in Northeast Airlines. His investment thesis was a common one among undercapitalized stock traders. He just looked for a company trading for under $5.00 per share so he could afford more shares! Believe it or not, the airline was soon targeted with a buyout offer resulting in his shares tripling in value. As you might imagine, this early victory hooked him on the market for life. He fed his passion by attending Harvard Business School. During the summers at Harvard, Ray traded commodities while being employed as an assistant to Merrill Lynch’s Director of Commodities. He soon moved to Wall Street where he toiled for 2 years learning the ins and outs of the financial business from the trenches. In 1975, launched Bridgewater Associates from his New York City brownstone apartment. How Ray Dalio Picks Investments Ray Dalio is best known as a macro investor who follows a stringent sense of ethical ideas that create the foundation for his investing and the way Bridgewater is operated. Unlike most secretive hedge fund managers, Ray makes his ideas available to the public via a treatise called, Principles . This 123-page manifesto is required reading for all Bridgewater employees and he was kind enough to publish it for every investor. It is very unique for such a hyper-successful hedge fund manager to share his inner motivations and life rules so freely. Everyone should make it a point to read Dalio’s Principles in its entirety at least one time. As a brief overview, Principles teaches to always think for yourself and that “Truth, more precisely an accurate understanding of reality is the essential foundation for producing good results.” In other words, understanding reality for what it is, not what you think or wish it is, is the fundamental core for living a successful life. The Nitty Gritty Ray’s practical advice includes the following. He stresses that every investment portfolio should consist of fifteen uncorrelated return stream. Dalio believes that at exactly fifteen uncorrelated investments, an investor’s risk factor is reduced by 80%. In addition, he likes to balance his portfolio to inflation risk and growth. He doesn’t just blindly follow the data but rather observes the data through the prism of knowing the economic environment. All potential environments are illustrated in this diagram from Bridgewater: The ideal portfolio is one that does not rely on predicting deflationary shifts yet provides balance. He explains it this way. Bonds will perform best during times of disinflationary recession, stocks will perform best during periods of growth, and cash will be the most attractive when money is tight. Translation: all asset classes have environmental biases. They do well in certain environments and poorly in others. As a result, owning the traditional, equity heavy portfolio is akin to taking a huge bet on stocks and, at a more fundamental level, that growth will be above expectations.” The Most Critical Thing Ray firmly believes that diversification is the key to long-term success in the financial markets. In his own words, “you’re not going to win by trying to get what the next tip is – what’s going to be good and what’s going to be bad. You’re definitely going to lose. So, what the investor needs to do is have a balanced, structured portfolio – a portfolio that does well in different environments.” Click to enlarge Most interesting is his belief that despite having all the researchers, market experts, and spending $100s of millions, Bridgewater still doesn’t know what’s going to win and what’s going to lose. Spreading the risk is the key to success no matter what resources you can access. Ray Dalio’s Current Portfolio Bridgewater is a macro-oriented fund. It holds over 90% of its assets in ETFs of emerging markets and the S&P 500 index. This breaks down to 31% allocated to Vanguard International Equity Index Funds (NYSEARCA: VWO ), 28% in the S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY ), and 17% in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEARCA: EEM ). The remainder of the 90% is allocated to a bond ETF and a Core S&P 500 ETF. Bridgewater’s largest single stock holding is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) with 0.47% of the portfolio. This equates to 327452 shares and the holdings have increased by 2% from last reporting period, a 19% increase. Ray first purchased Apple in the fourth quarter of 2010. Taking a closer look at the stock, shares are trading lower by 14.65% over the last 52 weeks, but are slightly higher by 0.07% in 2016. The next biggest holdings is Bed, Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY ) taking up 0.41% of the portfolio with 647054 shares. Ray has been adding to this position with it jumping from just 0.25% of his holdings last reporting period to 0.41% today. A 96% increase in the holding size. He first purchases the shares in the second quarter of 2014. The share plunged 34.80% over the last 52 weeks, but are higher by 1.97% in 2016. The mighty Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) is Mr. Dalio’s third largest single stock holding. His portfolio boasts 647054 shares representing 0.28% of the total and the 7th largest holding overall. MSFT has been a part of his portfolio since the fourth quarter of 2013. The holding has been increased by 14% since last reporting period. This stock has been a big winner for Ray’s fund having climbed 30.68% over the last 52 weeks. However, it is important to note, shares are lower by about 3.5% this year.

4 Growth ETFs & Stocks To Bloom In Spring

As the spring season kicked off, economic activity across all the sectors are likely to step up, injecting fresh optimism in both business and consumer confidence. The housing and transport sectors in particular gain momentum with demand building up over the frigid winter for new homes and transportation, which is a barometer of broad economic health. This spring, solid job gains, slowly rising wages and higher spending power buoyed by cheap fuel will add to the strength. The combination of these factors will give a boost to the stock market, which saw a scary start to the year but made an impressive comeback over the past one month. While value stocks have been gathering maximum attention this year, growth stocks have more upside potential in the coming month, buoyed by spring fever. This is especially true as growth investing is basically a momentum play and a great strategy in a trending market (a market characterized by a prolonged uptrend). Growth stocks refer to high-quality stocks that are likely to witness revenue and earnings increase at a faster rate than the industry average. These stocks harness their momentum in earnings to create a positive bias in the market, resulting in rocketing share prices. As such, growth stocks tend to outperform during an uptrend. Given this, investors should recycle their portfolio into the growth space to obtain a nice momentum play. For them, we have presented four ETFs and stocks that are ready to bloom this spring. ETF Picks Using our database, we have selected growth ETFs that provide exposure to the broad stock market instead of a particular sector and have a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is because these ranks suggest strengthening fundamentals and superior weighting methodologies that could allow them to lead higher than their cousins in a booming market. Further, these funds have outperformed the broad market fund (NYSEARCA: SPY ) by a wide margin over the past one year. Notably, SPY delivered returns of 0.82% in the same time period. iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: IWY ) This fund offers exposure to the large-cap segment by tracking the Russell Top 200 Growth Index. Zacks ETF Rank: #3 Expense Ratio: 0.20% AUM: $622 million No. of Stocks: 137 One-Year Return: 3.76% PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQ ) This fund also offers exposure to the large-cap equities and follows the Nasdaq 100 index. Zacks ETF Rank: #3 Expense Ratio: 0.20% AUM: $37.8 billion No. of Stocks: 106 One-Year Return: 2.80% Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: VOOG ) This fund tracks the S&P 500 Growth Index. Zacks ETF Rank: #3 Expense Ratio: 0.15% AUM: $795.9 million No. of Stocks: 311 One-Year Return: 2.06% Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF (NASDAQ: VONG ) This ETF tracks the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Zacks ETF Rank: #3 Expense Ratio: 0.12% AUM: $515.8 million No. of Stocks: 641 One-Year Return: 1.10% Stock Picks For stocks, we have chosen four top picks using the Zacks Screener that fits our five criteria: a Zacks Rank #1, a Growth Style Score of ‘A’, Zacks Industry Rank within the top 15%, market cap of over 1 billion, and positive relative price change (compared to the S&P 500). Here are our chosen stocks. Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN ) This Arkansas-based company is one of the world’s largest producers of chicken, beef, pork and prepared foods, offering a wide range of protein-based and prepared foods products. Zacks Industry Rank: Top 2% Market Cap: $24.29 billion Relative Price Change: 25.92 John Bean Technologies Corporation (NYSE: JBT ) This Illinois-based company is a leading global technology solutions provider to high-value segments of the food processing and air transportation industries. Zacks Industry Rank: Top 6% Market Cap: $1.60 billion Relative Price Change: 9.98 Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: SWHC ) This Massachusetts-based company is one of the world’s leading producers of quality handguns, law enforcement products and firearm safety and security products. Zacks Industry Rank: Top 10% Market Cap: $1.46 billion Relative Price Change: 21.13 Insperity Inc. (NYSE: NSP ) This Texas-based company provides an array of human resources and business solutions to enhance the performance of small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. Zacks Industry Rank: Top 10% Market Cap: $1.09 billion Relative Price Change: 6.63 Original Post