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Q1 ETF Asset Report: Safe Havens Pop; Currency Hedged Drop

The first quarter of 2016 was all about heightened global growth concerns, oscillating oil prices and ambiguity over the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. In particular, the acute plunge in oil prices took a toll on a number of assets worldwide. Most economies across the world, be it China, Japan, the Euro zone or the otherwise improving U.S. economy, were harried by fears of a slowdown. Most of the central Bank meetings turned out dovish and oil producers tried to strike an output freeze deal. All these efforts helped the broader market to recover in March and end the quarter on the positive note. Let’s see how a ghastly start and an upbeat ending to Q1 impacted asset growth in the ETF industry (as of March 29, 2016) (per etf.com ): It Was All-About Gold A flight to safety following a spike in volatility brightened the demand for the safe-haven asset gold (despite deteriorating fundamentals). Investors should note that a round of downbeat U.S. economic data in the early part of Q1 and the possibility of a slower-than-expected rate hike trail undermined the greenback in the first quarter, pushing most commodities ETFs (including gold) higher. Not only bullion, gold mining stocks also received considerable investor attention in the quarter. As a result, the fund tracking the gold mining equities, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX ), emerged as the winner in asset accumulation in Q1. GDX scooped up about $6.30 billion in assets while the yellow metal SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) pulled in $5.15 billion in assets in Q1 (read: Gold Mining ETF Investing 101 ). U.S. Treasury bonds: Another Safe Refuge Needless to say, U.S. treasury bonds were the other winners as these offer safety. Global growth issues dragged down yields on 10-year Treasury notes by 43 bps to 1.81% (as of March 29, 2016) in the quarter, leading Treasury valuation to soar. Thanks to this trend, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) and the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) amassed about $2.55 billion and $1.86 billion in the quarter (read: 5 ETFs for Portfolio Safety, Stability and Diversification ). Junk Bond ETFs Garner Attention The drive for high income and occasional improvement in the oil patch brought junk bond ETFs back into business in Q1. Plus, reasonable valuation after two soft years fetched substantial investors’ money in the quarter. Investors poured more than $2 billion and $1.7 billion respectively in the SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: JNK ) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: LQD ) . Apart from these, the iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ) gathered over $3.4 billion in assets in Q1, being the third seed in the asset-gatherer list. Japan Currency Hedged-Equities ETFs: Justified Loser Currency-hedging technique failed in the quarter due to a falling U.S. dollar. This was truer for the Japan equities, as yen added more strength by virtue of its safe haven nature. Plus, Japan is an export-driven economy, being more susceptible to this adverse currency translation. This sort of movement in currencies must haven dented currency-hedged Japanese equities ETFs like the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) which has seen assets worth $2.57 billion flowing out. The problem was the same with the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ) . The fund lost $2.11 billion in assets in Q1. U.S. Equities Tumble In tune with the other risky assets, investors fled the U.S. equities’ space. The trend was more pronounced for growth equities ETFs. Tech laden Nasdaq-based PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) lost about $2.04 billion in the quarter, taking the third position in the asset losers’ list. The ETF was followed by the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: IWF ) which redeemed about $1.96 billion in assets. Other growth sector ETFs like the First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FBT ) and the First Trust DJ Internet Index ETF (NYSEARCA: FDN ) saw outflows of $1.76 billion and $1.32 billion in assets, respectively. Finally, the ultra-popular SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) also entered the losers’ list. The fund lost around $1.23 billion in assets in the quarter. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Top And Flop Zones Of Q1 And Their ETFs

The start of 2016 was the worst ever for the broader financial market, thanks to the twin attacks of the China meltdown and the oil price crash that sparked off fresh fears of a global slowdown. Additionally, a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weak corporate earnings, uncertain timing of the next interest rates hike, weakness in many developed and developing economies, and concerns over the health of the global banks added to the chaos. A slew of worries sent the major U.S. bourses into correction territory from the recent peaks, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones plunging more than 14% (as of February 11). However, the stocks staged a nice comeback in the back half of the first quarter, recouping all the losses made in the quarter. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are now in the green, having logged 1% and 1.7% gains, respectively, from a year-to-date look. This is largely thanks to extra easing policies in Europe and Japan, stabilization in the Chinese economy, and receding fears of recession in U.S. Further, the rebound in oil price from its 12-year low and the Fed’s dovish comments infused a fresh lease of life in the stock markets. All these have increased the appeal for riskier assets lately, leading to a bullish trend in stocks, though bouts of volatility are still showing up. That being said, most corners of ETF investing have performed exceptionally well, while a few areas are lagging. Below, we have highlighted the best and worst zones of Q1 and their ETFs in detail. Best Zones Metal Mining ETFs Global uncertainty and financial market instability have brought back the lure for metals across the globe, boosting their demand. Acting as leveraged plays on underlying metal prices, metal miners tend to experience huge gains compared to their bullion cousins in a rising metal market. While all the ETFs in the mining space have enjoyed smooth trading, the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (NYSEARCA: SILJ ) is the biggest winner, having surged about 71% in value. This product provides a true small cap play on the silver mining space by tracking the ISE Junior Silver (Small Cap Miners/Explorers) Index. In total, the fund holds about 24 securities in its basket, with the largest allocation going to the top three firms – First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE: AG ), MAG Silver Corp. (NYSEMKT: MVG ) and Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS ). These firms combine to make for 40.3% of the fund’s assets. Canadian firms take the lion’s share at 82%, while the U.S., Peru and the United Kingdom take the remainder. The fund has managed assets worth $9.2 million and trades in a paltry volume of less than 18,000 shares a day. It charges 69 bps in annual fees. Natural Resource ETFs The natural resource segment gained immense strength in the first quarter, with robust performances in its chemical business as well as the metals & mining, and steel industries. A growing automotive market, a solid residential construction market and increasing production are boosting growth. Further, the impressive rebound of oil price from the 12-year lows hit in mid-February raised the appeal for these products. All these combinations have given a huge boost to the new ETF – the SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NYSEARCA: NANR ) – that has accumulated $744.2 million in AUM in just three months of its debut, while surging 17% in the first quarter. Volume is solid, with the fund exchanging 490,000 shares in hand on average. The ETF offers a well-balanced exposure to the basket of natural resources companies in the energy, materials, and agriculture industries. It tracks the S&P BMI North American Natural Resources Index, charging investors 35 bps in fees and expenses. Holding 60 securities in its basket, it is highly concentrated on the top two firms – Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) – with over 9% share each. Other firms hold less than 6.2% of assets. Materials make for half of the portfolio, closely followed by 45% in energy and the rest in consumer staples. Gold ETFs After posting the third annual loss in 2015, gold is heading for its biggest quarterly gain in nearly 30 years , having risen more than 15% in the first quarter. This is especially thanks to global growth concerns, the Fed’s cautious stance on rate hikes, and the adoption of negative interest rates by most countries that resulted in risk-off trade, increasing the safe-haven appeal across the board. In particular, the PowerShares DB Gold ETF (NYSEARCA: DGL ) has been leading in this corner of the ETF world, gaining nearly 15.6%. The fund seeks to track the DBIQ Optimum Yield Gold Index Excess Return, which consists of futures contracts on gold, plus the interest income from the fund’s holdings of US Treasury securities. It has amassed $218.2 million in its asset base, while it trades in moderate volume of 64,000 shares, thereby resulting in additional cost in the form of a wide bid/ask spread beyond the expense ratio of 0.78%. The product has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or “Hold” rating with a Medium risk outlook. Worst Zones Biotechnology ETFs Being a high-growth and high-beta sector, biotechnology has been hit hard by the global market rout seen in January and early February. Further, sector-specific issues, including increased regulatory scrutiny over high drug prices, political uncertainty surrounding healthcare reform, soft enrollment in public health insurance exchanges, and continued deceleration in earnings growth intensified the woes. While all the ETFs in this space saw terrible trading, the BioShares Biotechnology Clinical Trials ETF (NASDAQ: BBC ) stole the show, plunging over 36% in the first quarter. The ETF provides exposure to the companies that have a primary product in Phase I, II, or III of FDA trials by tracking the LifeSci Biotechnology Clinical Trials Index. Holding 90 small cap stocks in its basket, the fund is widely spread out, as each firm holds no more than 2.23% share. BBC has accumulated $27.6 million in its asset base and charges fees of 85 bps per year. It trades in a light volume of 11,000 shares a day and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3. Natural Gas ETFs Natural gas price has been on a wild swing since the start of the year, dropping in early March to levels not seen in 18 years on expanding supply and falling global demand. A mild winter in the U.S. and EU also dented the demand from heating for natural gas. As a result, the ETFs tracking natural gas futures have been hit, with the iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: GAZ ) shedding 30.5%. The note delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the natural gas futures contract plus the rate of interest on specified T-Bills. It follows the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return Index. The product is unpopular and illiquid, with AUM of $5.1 million and average daily volume of 53,000 shares. Its expense ratio came in at 0.75%. Solar ETFs Solar stocks have also been victims of investors’ shift from the high-beta space and vicious oil trading given investors’ misconception that oil price and solar market fundamentals are directly related to each other. Even the encouraging industry trends, including higher panel installations, the historic Paris climate deal, the U.S. tax credit extension, and Obama’s ‘Climate Action Plan failed to revive growth in the sector. As such, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA: TAN ), which offers exposure to the global solar industry, tumbled about 26%. The product follows the MAC Global Solar Energy Index and holds 29 securities in its basket, with the largest allocation going to the top three firms, which combined to make up for 21.9% share. American firms dominate the fund’s portfolio at nearly 55.9%, followed by China (17.9%) and Hong Kong (15.0%). The product has amassed $224 million in its asset base and trades in good volume of around 184,000 shares a day. It charges investors 70 bps in fees per year. Original Post

Finding Silver Linings In Cloudy U.S. Equity Markets

By Frank Caruso, Kurt Feuerman, Dan Roarty, James T. Tierney, Jr. Investors in US equities are facing tricky market conditions. To help stay focused in today’s environment, we’ve outlined five “plays,” or investing principles, for identifying the long-term drivers of a company’s business, which should foster sustainable growth. After the recent correction, equity managers can access stocks of stronger companies at attractive valuations to better position a portfolio for long-term investment performance. By using research to focus on the long-term drivers of a company’s business – and with a disciplined approach to portfolio construction – we believe investors can find silver linings in cloudy US equity markets by following a playbook of five clear investing principles (Display). Click to enlarge Play 1: Be on the right side of change : Changes in technology or regulation, or structural shifts in specific markets are excellent sources of growth potential – even in an earnings-constrained world, in our view. Play 2: Look for sources of secular growth : Identify growth trends that aren’t held hostage to a country’s macroeconomic fortunes. Play 3: Find businesses that control their destinies : Companies with better products, superior operating execution and more responsible financial behavior are likely to exercise a greater degree of control over their own fate. Play 4: Don’t confuse price momentum with business momentum : There are countless reasons to explain why share prices rise or fall sharply. It’s not always a sign of the strength or weakness of the underlying business. Play 5: The best defense is a solid offense : Popular safe havens in the markets aren’t always as secure as they might seem. Be creative when searching for stocks that can withstand volatility. In the coming weeks, we’ll publish additional blogs providing more detail on each of the plays. All five plays share a common denominator: they’re aimed at finding companies with sustainable growth prospects in a volatile, low-growth world. While relatively few companies fit this profile, our research suggests that investors who find them can enjoy outsize returns (Display). Click to enlarge When volatility strikes, it’s hard to stick to an investing playbook. Just like a football team that’s losing an important game might abandon a plan and improvise in the hopes of staging a recovery, investors under duress can be tempted to shift a portfolio or allocation in response to market surprises, while losing sight of their strategic goals. It usually doesn’t work. Staying disciplined in the face of adversity is more likely to yield better results, in our view. Of course, there are many different ways to implement our investing plays in the US equity market. A growth-centric manager can use them to find high-return, cash-generative businesses with clear paths to implement their strategy. An unconstrained manager can use them to create a portfolio of companies that balances high-quality cyclical and noncyclical holdings. The playbook can also be used to create a concentrated equity portfolio of a very small group of stocks with unique, differentiated business advantages. For a thematic approach, a portfolio manager can apply these ideas to navigate disruptive trends that are creating big opportunities in new markets. With these concepts in mind, we believe investors can find the right approach to capture excess returns over long time horizons, no matter how unruly markets are. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Frank Caruso – Chief Investment Officer – US Growth Equities Kurt Feuerman – Chief Investment Officer – Select US Equity Portfolios Daniel C. Roarty – Chief Investment Officer – Global Growth and Thematic James T. Tierney – Chief Investment Officer – Concentrated US Growth