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U.S. Factory Activity Rebounds: 3 Mutual Fund Picks

Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded for the first time in six months in March, fueled by a surge in new orders. The outlook for manufacturing looks encouraging, thanks to a tempering strength of the dollar and a recent rise in oil prices. Industrial production in the U.S. had been under intense pressure for quite some time after a stronger dollar increasing prices of export-oriented goods compared to those priced in other currencies, which eventually weighed on sales. A continuous decline in oil prices also had a negative impact on the energy sector. Energy companies had to trim spending on big-ticket factory goods including drilling equipment. But, as these headwinds are no longer strong enough, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS ) believes that the manufacturing recession in the U.S. may be over. Regional surveys on factory activities in Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, Kansas City and Chicago also showed marked progress in March. Record factory orders data in January too showed a release from the slump. Banking on this buoyancy, it will be prudent to invest in funds that are exposed to the industrial sector. These funds not only boast strong fundamentals but also provide stellar returns over a long investment horizon. Before we handpick some good funds, let’s take a look at the latest data: Manufacturing Outlook Improves The Institute of Supply Management said that its manufacturing index increased to 51.8% in March from 49.5% in February, indicating growth in manufacturing for the first time since Aug. 2015. Any reading above 50 is a positive indicator to customers’ orders and factory production. Twelve out of 18 industries surveyed by the index posted growth. Additionally, new orders were strongest since 2014, while a measure of production activity reached a 10-month high. The ISM’s New Orders Index rose to 58.3% in March compared with 51.5% reported for February, which showed growth in new orders for the third successive month. The ISM’s Production Index also went up to 55.3% in March from 52.8% in February, indicating growth in production last month for the third straight month. Bradley Holcomb, chairman of the ISM factory survey, said that these readings showed that manufacturing is “moving in the right direction” and there is “every reason to be confident” about the manufacturing sector in the next few months. He added that customer inventories are low and exports are improving. Export orders in March rose to 52% from 46.5% in February, the highest reading since Dec. 2014. Regional Data Looks Solid According to Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ), on an ISM-weighted basis, the average of the Philadelphia Fed, Empire State, Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys rose to 51.5 in March from 47 in February. Separately, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area turned positive in March for the first time in seven months, while factory activity in the New York region expanded for the first time since last July. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in the Chicago area rebounded last month, another sign that manufacturing is starting to recover from difficult times. The Chicago PMI gained 6 points to 53.6 in March banking on an uptick in production and employment. 3 Mutual Funds to Ride the Manufacturing Wave Economic activity at U.S. manufacturing companies grew in March for the first time since last summer as indicated by the ISM manufacturing index. The economy was able to shake off the adverse effects of a stronger dollar and slump in oil prices. While a stronger dollar had made export-oriented goods expensive, lower oil prices hindered growth in energy sectors. Based on encouraging readings on factory activity, it seems that manufacturing is on resurgence. Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Bank AG, said that “the rebound in the sentiment data avoids a self-fulfilling negative spiral” and it means “manufacturing will be less of a drag on the economy.” Add to this factory orders’ advance of 1.6% in January, its strongest increase since last June and you know why the manufacturing collapse is now over. In this scenario, it will be wise to invest in mutual funds that have significant holdings in the industrial sector. Here we have selected three industrial mutual funds that boast a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy), have given positive 3-year and 5-year annualized returns, offer minimum initial investment within $5000, carry a low expense ratio and possess no-sales load. Fidelity Select Defense & Aerospace Portfolio (MUTF: FSDAX ) invests the majority of its assets in securities of companies involved in the manufacture and sale of products or services related to the defense or aerospace industries. FSDAX has 96.97% of its holdings in the Industrials sector. FSDAX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are both at 11.7%. FSDAX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 and the annual expense ratio of 0.79% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Fidelity Select Industrial Equipment Portfolio (MUTF: FSCGX ) invests a major portion of its assets in securities of companies principally engaged in the manufacture or service of products for the industrial sector. FSCGX has 95.94% of its holdings in the Industrials sector. FSCGX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 9.1% and 7.7%, respectively. FSCGX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 and the annual expense ratio of 0.77% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. Fidelity Select Industrials (MUTF: FCYIX ) invests a large portion of its assets in securities of companies primarily involved in the development, distribution or sale of industrial products or equipment. FCYIX has 94.37% of its holdings in the Industrials sector. FCYIX’s 3-year and 5-year annualized returns are 10.1% and 9.5%, respectively. FCYIX carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 and the annual expense ratio of 0.78% is lower than the category average of 1.33%. About Zacks Mutual Fund Rank By applying the Zacks Rank to mutual funds, investors can find funds that not only outpaced the market in the past, but are also expected to outperform going forward. Pick the best mutual funds with the help of Zacks Rank. Original Post

Are There Dangers In Not Diversifying Your Portfolio?

Originally published on March 15, 2016 When it comes to investing, the key for most people to make money is to avoid as much risk as possible. In order to accomplish this, it’s best that all investors decide to diversify their portfolios in all possible ways. However, while it may sound simple, diversification is anything but that. However, by following a few simple rules it’s possible to diversify one’s portfolio in such a way that avoids huge losses. Just What Is Diversification? Diversifying a portfolio is just as it sounds. Rather than put all their money into a particular stock, investors should always look to invest their money in as many different avenues as available. By doing so, they greatly reduce the risk of losses occurring due to their money being tied up in only one industry. While diversification does not completely guarantee against financial losses happening, it has proven to be the most useful tactic when it comes to making a person’s money grow. Various Types of Risk When investing in stocks , bonds, or other financial instruments, there is always a certain level of risk involved with the venture. However, by having a good understanding of these risks, investors greatly increase their chances of minimizing losses or having none at all. There are two major types of diversification, which are known as diversifiable and non-diversifiable. Non-diversifiable risk is that which is associated with any type of company or industry, such as inflation, cost-of-living, and political instability. This is considered the type of risk that cannot be avoided, so it must be weighed in relation to other risks as to how it will affect a portfolio. However, diversifiable risk is directly tied to an industry, company, or even a particular country. To avoid having issues due to this type of risk, investors should have various assets within their portfolios that all have different reactions to the same situation, which in turn will lead to a safer investment strategy. Be Open to New Strategies One of the biggest mistakes many investors make is having tunnel vision when it comes to their investing strategies. When this happens, they often experience larger losses in their portfolios than other people who have spread their money around to many different places. Not only should a person not invest solely in one company, but they should also be careful not to invest in companies or industries that have a strong correlation to one another. If this happens, the likelihood of losses increases substantially. Opposites Attract Not only do opposites attract when it comes to love, but to diversifying as well. Along with being open to new strategies, it’s also advantageous for investors to look for various asset classes that tend to move in opposite directions. A great example of this is stocks and bonds, which while related tend to go in opposite directions almost daily. This allows them to offset the unpleasant moves of one asset class with the positive ones of another, which over time will keep a portfolio far less vulnerable to market swings. As a general rule, investors who are just beginning to put together their portfolios are almost always advised to include bonds, which tend to offset any losses sustained with stocks. There Are No Guarantees While diversifying a portfolio does not automatically guarantee investment success, it has been shown to increase the likelihood of positive returns over time. However, it’s important to note that even if your portfolio is correctly diversified, some risk can never be eliminated . This is where we talk about over diversification. This is a big problem that big investors, and experts warn others about, because it has the potential to undo all your efforts. It’s common consensus that wide diversification within your portfolio can cause investing to be more confusing than it normally would be, since you have so many eggs in so many baskets. Understanding that there is a point at which the benefits of diversification stop reducing risk, and instead start eating away at investment returns is crucial, otherwise, you’re just stuck with a hodgepodge mess of a portfolio. When it comes to reaching one’s financial goals, virtually every investor has their own set of unique plans. Most financial planners agree that investors who don’t let themselves get too high or too low depending on the market conditions will always do best, while others who invest too heavily in one direction often run into problems. By taking diversification seriously and taking the time to learn about the benefits associated with it, investment success can be had. This guest article was written and provided by Accuplan Benefits Services, a self-directed IRA administrator.

When Graham Found Momentum

Originally published on March 9, 2016 The enterprising investor may confine his choice to industries and companies about which he holds an optimistic view, but we counsel strongly against paying a high price for a stock (in relation to earnings and assets) because of such enthusiasm. – Benjamin Graham Popularity is fleeting. For some, it only lasts the proverbial “15 minutes”. For others, it drags on longer than any rational person can comprehend. We see this in people and things. It explains why fads come and go. It eventually ends because there are not enough new eyeballs to replace the ones that lose interest, or something newer and shinier comes along to draw our attention away. Ben Graham noticed this popularity effect on stocks and briefly covered it in The Intelligent Investor : Here we found – contrary to our investment philosophy – that companies that combined major size with a large good-will component in their market price did very well as a whole in the 2 1/2 year holding period. (By “good-will component” we mean the part of the price that exceeds the book value.) Graham separated stocks into several groups based on a single factor to see how each performed over a 30-month period between December 1968 and August 1971. Each group held a basket of 30 stocks. The group in question held the largest stocks with the highest price-to-book value. Our list of “good-will giants” was made up of 30 issues, each of which had a good-will component of over a billion dollars, representing more than half of its market price. The total market value of these good-will items at the end of 1968 was more than $120 billions! Basically, these were the “most expensive” large caps trading over 2x book value. I think it’s a safe guess that the price-to-book was much higher. Yet, despite the “expensive” price tag, the group outperformed all other tests and beat the market by about 15% for the period. Here’s Graham’s explanation for why: A fact like this must not be ignored in work on investment policies. It is clear that, at the least, a considerable momentum is attached to those companies that combine the virtues of great size, an excellent past record of earnings, the public’s expectation of continued earnings growth in the future, and strong market action over many past years. Even if the price may appear excessive by our quantitative standards the underlying market momentum may well carry such issues along more or less indefinitely. It is difficult to judge to what extent the superior market action shown is due to “true” or objective investment merits and to what extent to long-established popularity. No doubt both factors are important here. I think Graham’s explanation does a good job of describing potential drivers behind the momentum factor. Put simply, people like to buy stocks that are going up and avoid whatever’s going down. And if they feel good about stocks, they’re willing to pay more. He goes so far as to say it’s something investors might consider. It’s just not something he’d consider, since it goes against everything he believes. In most situations, value investors are doing the opposite. They’re buying when stocks are most unpopular and selling as popularity takes over. The popularity effect becomes the selling opportunity for value investors and buying opportunity for anyone willing to exploit the momentum factor. Note: Graham doesn’t list the 30 stocks in the “goodwill giants” group. Based on the few mentioned in the book – IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM ), Xerox, Polaroid – and the time frame, I’m guessing several fit the Nifty-Fifty mold. For those who don’t know, The Nifty-Fifty were a select group of high-growth stocks that reached a “buy at any price” popularity (much like the dot-com stocks of the late ’90s, except the Nifty-Fifty had actual earnings). The shiny thing was high earnings growth that initially got people’s attention, popularity and momentum drove prices higher. In some cases, investors were paying P/E multiples of 50x and higher. For a while, anyway, it worked… until it didn’t. What seemed like a great idea in ’68 became a terrible one in ’73 when the market crashed.