Tag Archives: amzn

Amazon.com, Uber Threaten GrubHub In Food Delivery, Analyst Says

Analysts are cautious about food-delivery firm GrubHub ( GRUB ) and its outlook in 2016, saying the sector has become intensely competitive as startups and publicly traded companies vie for diner dollars. Despite strong Q4 earnings  posted early Thursday, GrubHub was downgraded by  Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein to perform from outperform due to concerns over growing competition. In a research note Friday, he specifically cited e-commerce juggernaut Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and ride-booking app Uber. Helfstein says that both firms will cut into GrubHub’s revenue and profitability in the next 12 to 18 months. “As Amazon and Uber aggressively pursue food delivery, we believe GrubHub will see margin compression on reduced order rates, more expensive customer-acquisition costs and lower commission rates,” he wrote. He noted that the number of Amazon shoppers dwarfs GrubHub’s customer base of about 6.7 million active diners — Amazon’s customer loyalty program Amazon Prime alone has more than 50 million members, according to estimates. Meanwhile, Uber is growing rapidly, Helfstein noted, and now is valued at over $60 billion. Online review website Yelp ( YELP ) also entered the food delivery market last year with its acquisition of Eat24 for about $134 million. And payments processor Square ( SQ ), which recently had its IPO , owns food delivery app Caviar. GrubHub stock was down 2% in late-afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 21.  The company has an IBD Composite rating of 68, where 99 is the highest. GrubHub stock rose 13% Thursday after its Q4 beat. It held its IPO in April 2014, pricing shares at 26 and raising $192 million. RBC Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni, in a research note Friday, called GrubHub’s Q4 “solid” and said its 2016 guidance was better than expected. But Kulkarni wrote that he’d “prefer to remain on the sidelines” because of unfavorable trends. The analyst lowered his price target on GrubHub stock to 26 from 27, saying he sees no clear route to acquiring more diners and finds a lack of evidence of “stable delivery economics.” “We don’t believe GrubHub shares can fundamentally outperform,” Kulkarni wrote.

Tableau Tumbles On Microsoft Rivalry; Software Stocks Down Hard

Tableau Software ( DATA ) stock lost nearly half its value Friday, as investors reacted to weak first-quarter guidance late Thursday and the rise of Microsoft — and possibly Amazon.com — as a top rival in analytics, while enterprise software spending overall seems to be easing. Microsoft ‘s ( MSFT ) new PowerBI data-analytics software product, irresistibly priced for free against Tableau’s premium-priced product, won’t necessarily affect only Tableau’s campaign. Rival Workday ( WDAY ) stock was down 14% and Salesforce.com ( CRM ) was down 12% in midday trade in the stock market today . Security software stalwart  Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) stock was down 11%. Tableau stock, though, was down 49% as its outlook for this quarter and the full year lagged far below Wall Street expectations. Wall Street analysts, who were mostly upbeat about Tableau a day earlier, raced to downgrade ratings or reduce price targets. “Tableau reported revenue that beat consensus by only 1% (lowest ever), or about $2 million, when the average beat over last 11 quarters is around $11 million,” Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury said in a research note. Summit slashed its price target on Tableau stock to 45 from 80, and maintained a hold rating. “Given that the company pulled down guidance for 2016, we believe Tableau is in the penalty box for the foreseeable future,” Nadury said. “We remain on the sidelines given our belief that 1) comps will get tougher from these levels; 2) competition continues to materialize” with Qlik Technologies ( QLIK ), MicroStrategy ( MSTR ), Salesforce.com, Amazon.com ( AMZN ) and Microsoft “all gunning for a piece of the action; 3) the market may not be as big as some on the Street believe as most Excel users (as Tableau targets) would never need a visualization function; and, 4) low-hanging fruit already has been picked.” Tableau said it added more than 1,000 employees, many of them in sales, in 2015 and now has a total workforce of 3,000-plus. But Kelly Wright, executive vice president of sales, is leaving by year’s end. Responding to an analysts’ question, on the company’s earnings conference call, about her departure amid the sales force buildup, management downplayed the transition. When her retirement was announced in January, CEO Christian Chabot said, “Kelly has provided the sales leadership we needed and built a world-class sales team.” She was Tableau’s first salesperson in 2005. Business-intelligence software maker Splunk ( SPLK ) was down 25% midday Friday, while Qlik was down 15. Microsoft stock was down 2%.      

Redbox Faces Hit From Accelerating Shift To Streaming Video

Automated retail kiosk operator Outerwall ( OUTR ) late Thursday beat lowered expectations for the December quarter. But shares of the Bellevue, Wash.-based company fell Friday as the firm’s guidance pointed to a rough year ahead for its Redbox DVD rental business. Outerwall stock was down 15% in midday trading, below 28, on the stock market today . It had fallen as much as 24% earning and is at its lowest level in six years. Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson on Friday threw in the towel on Outerwall stock, lowering his rating to neutral from overweight and slashing his price target on the stock to 32 from 57. “Redbox faces secular headwinds, and while we do not expect a ‘fall off a cliff’ scenario, we believe the trend is accelerating and will continue to drive year-over-year revenue and EPS decline,” Olson said in a report. Redbox competes with streaming video services like Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Hulu and Netflix ( NFLX ). Olson is modeling for a 26% year-over-year decline in rentals per Redbox kiosk in the first quarter and a 17% decline for all of 2016. Outerwall reported Q4 EPS of $1.43 on sales of $527.2 million, ahead of previously lowered guidance and above the Street view of 64 cents on $512.3 million. But the company’s outlook for 2016 is materially below consensus. Outerwall anticipates 2016 EPS of $5 to $6.30 vs. the Street’s estimate of $7.14. Outerwall CEO Erik Prusch remained upbeat about Redbox, which provided 77% of revenue in Q4, despite acknowledging ongoing secular declines in the market. “Redbox is a compelling business, providing new movie releases to millions of loyal consumers at a great value,” he said in a statement . “We will manage the business for profitability and cash flow, and we will continue our focus on expense management, operational efficiencies and network optimization.” Prusch said he sees a long life for the DVD rental business. “We are confident that millions of consumers will continue renting from Redbox for many years to come, as a majority of our customers use Redbox to complement digital alternatives,” Prusch said. Outerwall also operates Coinstar coin-redemption kiosks and ecoATM used-electronics-purchasing kiosks. Redbox generated 135.8 million rentals in the fourth quarter, down 24% from the same quarter a year earlier. In 2016, Outerwall expects to reduce its number of Redbox kiosks by 1,000-2,000. It ended 2015 with 40,480 Redbox kiosks, compared with 42,280 at the end of 2014. Dougherty analyst Steven Frankel reiterated his neutral rating on Outerwall in a report Thursday. “While share repurchases and other forms of financial engineering are helping the EPS line, the secular decline in DVD demand and execution issues at Redbox are creating significant challenges,” Frankel said. “Until we see signs of stability at Redbox, we view Outerwall as the classic value trap.” However, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter believes Outerwall can wring more profit out of its operations. In a note Thursday, he maintained his outperform rating on the stock but cut his price target to 40 from 59.