Tag Archives: alternative

Utilities Specialist Reaves Launches Its 1st Actively Managed Utilities ETF

Summary Reaves Asset Management – a company with 50 years researching and investing in utility assets – recently launched the Reaves Utilities ETF. It joins the relatively small list of actively managed ETFs but carries an expense ratio that would place it among the most expensive in the utilities ETF space. The fund’s managers believe that actively managing the inherent complexities of the utilities sector can unlock additional value for shareholders that a passive index can not. Reaves Asset Management – an investment management firm that specializes in the utilities and energy sectors – has been investing on the behalf of its clients for the past 3+ decades. Recently, the company entered the ETF space for the first time with the Reaves Utilities ETF (NASDAQ: UTES ). Reaves, however, is not new to the fund game. It also offers the open-end mutual fund Reaves Utilities and Energy Infrastructure Fund (MUTF: RSRAX ) and the closed-end fund Reaves Utility Income Fund (NYSEMKT: UTG ). Not only is Reaves entering the ETF space for the first time but it’s doing so with one of the few actively managed ETFs out there. Manager The Reaves company has been around for over 50 years and has been managing investor money for around 37. The company now manages a total of roughly $3B in a combination of its mutual funds, ETF and separately managed accounts. The ETF is managed by Louis Cimino, John Bartlett and Jay Rhame. Bartlett has been with the company for 20 years, Cimino 18 and Rhame 10. The research team at Reaves, according to the fund’s fact sheet, “averages over 20 years of experience.” Investment Process The management team uses a combination quantitative and qualitative approach in order to make investment decisions and, according to the fact sheet , uses the following criteria. Where this product differs from most other ETFs is that it’s actively managed. Betting that the fund’s active management can outperform a passive index may prove to be a risky proposition. In most cases, actively managed funds cost more to operate to than passive index funds due to the extra involvement necessary to manage the fund. According to ETFDB.com, this ETF’s 0.95% expense ratio would rank it as the highest annual expense ratio among the roughly two dozen utility-focused ETFs in the marketplace. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLU ) charges just 0.15% a year which means the Reaves ETF will need outperform by nearly a full percent per year just to come out ahead. That’ll be a tall order to fill regardless of who’s managing the fund. Holdings As of October 9, the fund has 21 holdings total. The top 10 holdings listed below account for 67% of fund assets currently. Prospects The ETF is debuting at a potentially advantageous time. Utilities as a whole have struggled this year – the Utilities Select Sector SDPR is down 4.8% year to date versus a 2.1% loss for the S&P 500. Investors had been anticipating a rate hike from the Fed and yields on the 10 year Treasury hit 2.5% earlier this year which made fixed income securities look more attractive and began rotating cash out of equities. As the prospect of a Fed rate hike looks to be getting pushed further out on the horizon and Treasury yields begin coming back down, the 3-4% yields offered by utilities began to look more and more attractive. While Reaves has been studying and managing utility assets for decades I still believe it’s going to have a difficult time overcoming the expense ratio over time. The fund currently has about $2.6M in assets and trades just a few hundred shares a day so bid-ask spreads could be large until the fund is able to operate a little more efficiently. All in all, due to the fund manager’s wealth of utility sector experience I would continue keeping an eye on this fund.

Agriculture, Coffee And Sugar: The Next Rally?

Summary We discuss the long term bullish case for Rogers Agricultural Index ETN. 3 billion additional middle class consumers will support the demand for agricultural products over the next two decades. We discuss why Rogers Agricultural Index has been in a bear market since early 2011 and what is needed for the next bull market to start. We mention that coffee and sugar might be good investments already in the short term in light of the fundamentals. In 2007 Jim Rogers lent his name to a new line of exchange-traded notes. One of them was dedicated to the agriculture: The Elements Linked to Rogers International Commodity Index Agriculture Total Return Note ( RJA). Jim Rogers has been very positive on agriculture and farmland investments. There are probably tens of interviews where he cites to be more bullish on agriculture than any other commodity. So, why Rogers Agriculture Index has been such a horrible investment since 2007 and could this change? Was Jim Rogers wrong? These are the topics we will discuss in this article. We will also mention a few isolated picks in the agricultural sector that we believe to have more upside potential in the short term in comparison to Rogers Agricultural Index. For those not familiar with Jim Rogers, he was among the most successful and famous hedge fund managers on Wall Street. Currently he is living in Singapore and travels across the world as a guest speaker at investment conferences. Chart Analysis Rogers Agricultural Index is trading 50% below its all time highs reached back in 2008. This index contains around 20 most popular agricultural futures contracts such as corn (13.61%), wheat (13.61%), cotton (12.03%), soybeans (10.00%) and coffee (5.73%). (click to enlarge) Figure 1. RJA ETN price chart. Chart : Ycharts.com The price drop in RJA can be explained by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, at least partially. Most producers get paid in U.S. dollars. Supply-Demand Fundamentals We went through OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 report. This report suggests that the global inventory levels, supply and demand of the agricultural commodities are in a reasonably good balance right now. In the short term we believe that most agricultural commodities will stay at their low price levels. The bull market might be getting ready to start – but not right away. When To Buy Rogers Agricultural Index? Rogers Agricultural Index might not move up before a big change takes place in the global currency markets. The U.S. dollar should start to weaken against other major currencies. However, there is an another major price catalyst in the making. Asia has already 525m middle class consumers. That is more than the whole EU population. Over the next two decades, the middle class is expected to expand by another 3 billion. That will create a spectacular rise in demand. In parallel, the global arable land is expected to increase by only 5% by 2050. That will be a challenge. That means that 90% of the supply increases must come from the yield and farming intensity improvements. We believe that such a staggering increase in the yield might be very difficult to achieve. One option would be to consider genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Changes In GMO Policies and Consumer Habits A major policy shift is occurring in EU in 2015 with a more accommodating approach towards the use of GMOs across the whole European Union . This will surely add more supply to the markets. However, the additional 3 billion middle class consumers will make both European consumers (over 500m) and farms look very small. The demand for several crop products will grow parabolically. The meat consumption is expected to double by 2050. Now, consider that producing 1 lbs of beef does not require 1 lbs of feeds. It requires as much as 5 lbs. For chicken this would be 2 lbs respectively. Consequently, Rogers Agricultural Commodity Index will have a very strong tailwind from the increased meat consumption. Sugar Might Become A Sweet Investment (click to enlarge) Figure 2. The iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: SGG ) and the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee ETN (NYSEARCA: JO ) price. Chart: YCharts.com Sugar is cheaper today than it was in the ’70s. The current supply-demand balance is currently in a deficit and several price catalysts are emerging: New fuel policy in Brazil lifting gasoline prices – this will increase the demand for both ethanol and sugar. Indian sustained drought conditions. Too low sugar price – farmers might as well do nothing for the same close to zero earnings or transfer their cultivations over to something else. We believe that sugar will be pushed higher with these catalysts already in the short term. The flex-fuel cars’ ethanol usage in Brazil might even double in 2015 due to the new policy. Besides sugar we think that coffee is a good investment right now. We covered coffee and the iPath Pure Beta Coffee ETN (NYSEARCA: CAFE ) in an earlier exclusive Seeking Alpha article . Risks and Opportunities We believe that an unexpected breakthrough in genetically modified crops might be among the risk factors hindering the bull market in Rogers Agricultural Index. The recent months low inflation rates, felt globally, could also continue to press the commodity prices lower. Also a short dollar rally could push the prices lower. Rising agricultural prices would be advantageous for the farmers not earning a decent income these days in most producing countries. Through higher salaries and incomes these rural regions would start to prosper. The rising salaries and incomes in the producing countries would increase the inflation levels. Higher inflation would mean higher crop prices. This vicious circle might get stronger and stronger and support the next bull market in the agricultural commodities. Conclusion We are bullish on both Coffee and Sugar, and over a longer term RJA. As the world will count over 3 billion additional middle class consumers over the next two decades, we will see an unprecedented growth in the agricultural products’ demand. In parallel the arable land surface area is going to increase by less than 5%. The changing patterns in the climate continue to reduce the harvests even more frequently. We do not recommend our readers to buy a tractor or a pair of rubber boots. Following up the agricultural commodities prices could do it for the short term if the farmlands’ productivity increases will be sufficient. Disclaimer: Please do your own research prior to investing and taking investment decisions. This article is provided for informal purposes only and any information mentioned may change at any time without a notice. Please consult your investment advisor for finding a proper allocation for your portfolio that is adjusted with your risk levels and personal situation.

Health Insurers: If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them

Summary I believe the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF is worth considering adding to portfolios. There are three growth drivers for the health insurance industry: Above Market Sales Growth, Potential Cost Controls and less competition. With little chance of Obamacare being significantly changed or replaced anytime soon, health insurers will continue to report record revenues for an extended period of time. In this article, I will be explaining why I believe the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF (NYSEARCA: IHF ) is worth considering, because IHF has a large exposure to health care insurers. The reason I am focusing on health care insurers is I recently received a letter from my insurer saying my health care insurance plan would canceled and thus I have to find new insurance. The new plan Regence BlueCross BlueShield suggested for me was the “cheapest” premium plan that the company offers, which is what I was looking for. I am a healthy 29 year old and I have not needed to go to the doctor for years, and only for minor items like a sinus infection etc, therefore a cheap plan is ideal for me. However, the new “cheap” plan costs 156% more [yes you read that correctly] than my current plan, and thus is the reason I started looking at IHF because of its large exposure to health insurers. If my wallet is going to be emptied by health insurers, I might as well invest in health insurance stocks to minimize the impact of the significantly higher premiums I would have to pay. This is a massive opportunity for insurers when they are able to cancel plans like mine and charge significantly higher rates to healthy individuals who do not use their health insurance or use it sparingly. Growth Drivers Driver #1: Above market sales growth Health Insurers make up just over 52% of the holdings of IHF and over the last five years IHF has had a total return of just over 155% compared to a nearly 91% total return for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). (click to enlarge) [Chart from dividendchannel.com] This outperformance is driven by the above market growth that health insurers have had over the last five years. The average sales growth for Aetna (NYSE: AET ), Anthem (NYSE: ANTM ), Cigna (NYSE: CI ), Humana (NYSE: HUM ) and United Health (NYSE: UNH ) over the last five years has been 10.76% compared to 6.64% for the average of all S&P 500 companies. When health insurers cancel plans like mine, and charge exorbitantly higher rates for new plans as well as continuing to raise rates for everyone else, it is easy to see that sales will continue to grow at a faster pace than the rest of the S&P 500. Driver #2: Prescription drug cost controls Recently Hilary Clinton announced her plan to try to control and lower the costs of prescription drugs. If prescription drug cost controls were to be put into place, health insurers would be the big winner in my opinion. If prescription drug costs are significantly reduced under the type of plan proposed, do you think health insurers would pass that cost savings to consumers? In my opinion there is no way that health insurers would pass these cost savings onto consumers through lower premiums. Therefore, if premiums remain the same and/or continue to grow and insurers have to pay less for prescription drugs their margins would expand significantly. Driver #3: Less competition With Aetna purchasing Humana and Anthem purchasing Cigna both within the last couple months, this will mean even less competition for health insurance at a time when more competition is what is needed. If both these mergers pass regulatory approval, consumers will not have as many choices when it comes to health insurance options. In a recent Forbes article, it quoted supporters of the deal saying: Aetna and Humana and supporters of the deal say the larger insurer would allow the plans to extract price cuts from doctors and hospitals, which would be a good thing. Yes, it would be a good thing if costs came down, but as I noted above, in no way do I believe that insurers would pass those costs savings onto customers through lower premiums. Closing Thoughts In closing, I believe the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF is worth considering adding to portfolios because of its 50%+ allocation to health insurers, which have strong tailwinds given that it is likely Obamacare is not going anywhere anytime soon. With significantly higher sales growth rates than the rest of the S&P 500, the potential for higher margins because of cost controls and less competition, it is easy to see that health insurers will continue to be highly profitable and a great option for those looking to offset premium increases. The statement from the Aetna CFO says it all: We grew operating revenue to a record quarterly level of over $15.1 billion, driven by higher premium yields and year-over-year growth in medical membership. – AET Transcript Disclaimer: See here .