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Apple iPhone 7 Ramp To Slug Analog Devices On Declining Q2 Sales

Apple ‘s ( AAPL ) lukewarm iPhone 7 ramp may slug Analog Devices ( ADI ) early Wednesday, when the chipmaker is expected to report a 5% year-over-year revenue dip on a 40% sequential plunge in sales to Apple. But a “bright spot” of industrial and automotive sales will show a seasonal boost, outplaying rival Xilinx ( XLNX ), and wireless communication revenue will come off a trough to top competitors Nokia ( NOK ) and Cavium ( CAVM ), MKM analyst Ian Ing said Tuesday. In morning trading on the stock market today , Analog Devices stock was up a fraction, near 55.50. Shares are flat for the year vs. a 6% fall in IBD’s 38-company Electronic Semiconductor-Manufacturing industry group. Analog Devices stock hit a 2016 high on April 27 at 59.87, but it’s down 7% in the three weeks since then. In late April, Apple reported its first-ever year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments, in its March-quarter results. Analog Devices is expected to post $777.6 million in sales and 62 cents earnings per share ex items, down a respective 5% and 15% vs. the year-earlier quarter, for its fiscal Q2 ended on or near April 30, according to the consensus of 29 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That would follow flat Q1 sales and Analog Devices’ first EPS decline in 11 quarters. Wall Street expects typically strong Q3 and Q4 sales to also decline — by 2% and 6%, respectively. Over the past two years, Q3 had risen an average 13.5%, and Q4 sales had gained an average 20%. Recent reports indicate Apple suppliers are getting fewer orders compared with the year-ago period. Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer expects Analog Devices to report $30 million in Q2 sales to Apple, down 40% sequentially. For Q3, he models $80 million in sales to Apple vs. consensus views for $110 million. “We suspect modest downside to our Apple revenue estimate for (the second half of the year) offset by upside to (industrial, automotive and communications),” he wrote in a research report. Apple accounts for about 10% of Analog Devices’ sales, Pitzer estimated. Views for $200 million in Apple sales for the latter half of 2016 would be down 15% year over year, but they still “might be $20 million to $30 million too high,” he said. But $1.33 billion views for automotive, industrial and communications sales, up 2% vs. the year-earlier period, doesn’t reflect accelerating advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and communications infrastructure opportunities, he wrote. Pitzer retained his outperform rating and 72 price target on Analog Devices stock. Ing kept his neutral rating and 56 price target. Analog Devices’ messaging has tilted in favor of “analog utility” investors vs. momentum growth investors, Ing wrote in a report. Analog utility investors prefer business-to-business ventures over “volatile” portables exposure.

Apple Suppliers Downgraded On ‘Modestly Lower’ iPhone Demand

Petering Apple ( AAPL ) and Samsung demand prodded a Raymond James analyst to downgrade suppliers NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI ), Qorvo ( QRVO ), Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ) and others, even with the iPhone 7 launch expected in September. Apple suppliers broadly fell in morning trading on the stock market today . Radio-frequency chip companies Qorvo and Skyworks were down 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively, on the downgrade, tugging rival Broadcom ( AVGO ) down 1.3%. Maxim Integrated Products ( MXIM ) stock was down more than 1%, while Apple suppliers Analog Devices ( ADI ), NXP and Texas Instruments ( TXN ) stocks were all down roughly 1%. In all, Raymond James analyst Steven Smigie downgraded six semiconductor stocks to outperform from strong buy, citing likely in-line earnings and minimal upside to June guidance. Following a January drop in the stocks, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index has rebounded 20% since mid-February, Smigie wrote in a research report. Some stocks have run up 40%, he noted. But “with only modest signs that there is the potential for near-term upside to (earnings per share), and some signs of modest downside, we worry that shares have a limited upside, with reasonable downside risk,” he wrote. Confidence could improve in the seasonally stronger second half of 2016, when Apple typically launches its newest iPhone flagship. But “Apple is seeing modestly lower demand,” said Smigie, who questioned the likelihood of a positive June guide by Apple. He also noted some pain points for radio-frequency suppliers that have more than 45% exposure to Apple. “Even if the Apple guide is healthy, we think skepticism will remain until the summer when we start to get evidence of the iPhone 7 ramp and questions about iPhone SE cannibalizing other iPhone models get resolved,” he wrote. Bright Spot For Chip Outlook Samsung sales zoomed on its Galaxy S7 flagship, but pre-orders were likely influenced by free Gear VR (virtual reality) giveaways, Smigie wrote. Huawei, on the other hand, is a “bright spot” and recently guided to 120 million to 140 million units in 2016. The lion’s share of those units will be high-end smartphones, Huawei said. Outside mobile, PC and industrial results have been weak, offsetting some strength in the growing automotive and infotainment arenas — the latter being NXP’s bailiwick following its acquisition of Freescale Semiconductor. But even in the automotive segment, “we have heard concerns from a number of investors on subprime lending,” Smigie wrote. Until those fears level out, automotive-exposed semiconductors could face some headwinds. Respective estimates from industry trackers Gartner and IDC show the PC segment saw 9.6% and 11.5% year-over-year declines in Q1 shipments. And March industrial production fell 0.6% vs. expectations for a 0.1% decline, says Smigie. Smigie notes positively, “we still like many of the stories, however, so all else being equal, on a pullback we could look to get more aggressive again.”

Will Apple Supplier Skyworks Kick Off 2016 Chip M&A With Maxim Buy?

Apple ( AAPL ) supplier Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ) ought to acquire Maxim Integrated Products ( MXIM ) to diversify from the slowing smartphone and radio-frequency market, Pacific Crest analyst Michael McConnell suggested Thursday. Maxim has long been takeover bait with sharks Analog Devices ( ADI ) and Texas Instruments ( TXN ) reportedly eyeing the $10.5 billion-market-cap chipmaker in October. But sources told Bloomberg that Maxim might not sell without a high premium. Skyworks could provide that premium, McConnell wrote in a research report. Maxim stock rose a fraction Thursday, to 36.78. Skyworks was flat. An offer of $44 per share would be a 20% premium to Maxim stock, McConnell points out. Acquiring Maxim would help Skyworks diversify beyond its 80% exposure to the struggling mobile market, McConnell wrote. Maxim has ties to the data center and automotive markets. Though Maxim makes the most sense — McConnell rates both a buy — Skyworks could also diversify by acquiring Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ) or Silicon Laboratories ( SLAB ), McConnell wrote. Is The RF Market Maturing? RF, Skyworks’ bread and butter, is slated for a compound annual growth rate of 11% over the next several years vs. historical 18% growth, McConnell wrote. Skyworks competes in the RF ring with Broadcom ( AVGO ) and Qorvo ( QRVO ), both Apple suppliers. The number of bands — a spectrum of RF — rocketed between 2005 and 2015, Brent Dietz, Qorvo director of corporate communications, told IBD. In 2005, there were two bands. By 2015, there were 43. McConnell sees little opportunity for continued band acceleration. And Dietz offered a similar growth view for the RF market — a $10 billion market opportunity with a 10%-15% growth rate. But Dietz notes that the RF content in smartphones has gapped up this century. Less complex 2G phones had about 80 cents worth of RF content. Today, most smartphones have about $16 worth of RF. To that point, Broadcom’s mobile RF content grows in excess of 20% every year, CEO Hock Tan said during the company’s Q1 earnings conference call. He expects 2016 to be no different. This year, Qorvo and Skyworks offered similar views of growing dollar content in marquee smartphones. Recent teardowns show that Samsung completely replaced three Skyworks chips in its Galaxy S7 and that Qorvo twice replaced Broadcom.