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Juniper’s Q1 Miss Drags Down Networking Stocks; Chips Fall Too
When enterprise clients slow down purchases, and Internet service providers delay capital expenditures, Juniper Networks ( JNPR ) has a problem. The top computer-networking gear maker not named Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) pre-announced just such a first-quarter situation after the market close Monday, sending networking stocks lower Tuesday. Juniper stock was down more than 9% in morning trading in the stock market today , below 23, as at least three investment banks lowered their price target. Cisco stock was down 1%, near 27. The IBD Computer-Networking industry group was down 1.4%. Shares of Arista Networks ( ANET ) and rival Brocade Communications Systems ( BRCD ) were each down 2%. Chips stocks weren’t faring much better. IBD’s Electronics-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group was down 1% and had been down more than 4%, while the Electronics-Semiconductor Fabless group also was down 1%. Microsemi ( MSCC ) was down nearly 3%, MaxLinear ( MXL ) 1%, and Inphi ( IPHI ) was weaker by more than 1% — though all had been down more than 3% earlier. FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi dropped his price target for Juniper stock to 25 from 27 and maintained a sector perform rating. “The primary reasons for the weakness include weaker-than-anticipated demand from enterprise (customers) and the timing of deployments of certain U.S. and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) Tier 1 telecoms,” Seyrafi wrote in a research note Tuesday. “It is somewhat disappointing to see the weakness in EMEA telecoms (which was the case in fiscal Q4 as well), especially considering that in Q4, JNPR’s service provider segment grew by a strong 25% year over year and that JNPR had an easy compare in the Q1 service provider segment (where revenue declined 8% year over year the year before).” Seyrafi noted that AT&T ( T ) expects to grow capital expenditures 6% to $22 billion this year, while Verizon ( VZ ) implied a 3% decline in capex to a range of $17.2 billion to $17.8 billion. “So U.S.-based service providers will likely not be driving much growth for communication equipment suppliers this year,” he said. Juniper Notes March Rebound “We do think that Juniper felt what Cisco (outperform-rated) noted in February, namely that some customers paused to digest what was happening following financial market turbulence at the beginning of the year,” Seyrafi wrote. “However, we do note that financial markets rebounded in March, and JNPR CEO Rami Rahim stated that the company remains constructive on fiscal 2016 as the company expects new products to add to growth while the company maintains ongoing focus on cost discipline.” Juniper said that it expects to report earnings per share minus items of 35 cents to 37 cents, down from its prior guidance of 42-46 cents. Wall Street had expected 43-44 cents, up 34% to 38% from Q1 2015. Juniper’s new midpoint, 36 cents, would be up 12%. Juniper expects Q1 revenue of $1.09 billion to $1.10 billion, down from its prior guidance of $1.15 billion to $1.19 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected $1.16 billion, up 8.4%. Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Juniper is set to release full Q1 results after the close April 28. William Blair analyst Jason Ader maintained his outperform rating on Juniper stock but “modestly lowered” full-year estimates for 2016 and 2017. Analyst Alex Henderson at Needham reiterated his hold rating and said that he’s “firmly on the sidelines,” as he too trimmed estimates. “While we see Juniper as one of the weaker companies in our coverage, there could be read-throughs to other names such as Cisco, F5 Networks ( FFIV ) and Viavi ( VIAV ),” Henderson said in a Tuesday research note. “We think Arista and Gigamon ( GIMO ) are likely to be able to power through the choppy environment. Given the magnitude of the (Juniper) top-line miss, we think estimates for Q2 will have to be ratcheted back as well.” F5 stock was down 2% Tuesday morning, while Gigamon was down 1% and Viavi Solutions off 1.5%.
3 High Yield ETFs That Must Be On Your Radar
The high yield landscape has been a difficult one to navigate over the last year. The pernicious selling in commodities combined with a rocky road for stocks has led to sliding prices in junk bonds, master limited partnerships, and mortgage REITs. These asset classes have been pilloried for luring in yield-seeking investors, only to have the rug pulled out from under them as credit conditions deteriorated. Hopefully an important lesson has been learned – the higher the yield, the higher the risk of capital invested. Those that were burned the worst may be taking the tact of avoiding these sectors altogether . However, monitoring exchange-traded funds that track high yield indexes can be a useful endeavor. They can often provide insight into underlying stock market or debt dynamics as well as serve up trading opportunities showing relative value characteristics. Let’s delve into some of the most important high yield ETFs that should be on your radar. iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) HYG is the largest high yield bond ETF with $16.7 billion in total assets. This passively managed index fund owns nearly 1,000 corporate bonds of companies with below-investment grade credit ratings. These types of fixed-income instruments are often referred to as “junk bonds” because of their lower quality credit fundamentals. Investors who own a basket of junk bonds like HYG are nominally compensated for the higher risk by receiving a much higher yield than Treasuries or investment-grade corporate bonds. HYG currently has a 30-day SEC yield of 6.96% and income is paid monthly to shareholders. A peek at the chart below shows how HYG broke below its 200-day moving average nearly nine months ago and has been in a persistent down-trend ever since. This ETF was down over 20% from high to low, but managed to claw its way back from the abyss during the February and March rally in risk assets. The important question now is whether HYG is consolidating for another push higher or is it getting ready to rollover once again? The most bullish scenario would be a tight range of consolidation followed by a confirmed breakout to new recovery highs above the downward sloping 200-day moving average. This would likely need to coincide with further strength in broad stock market indices such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). If we start to see SPY and other stock market bellwethers roll over again, then it could easily lead to a retest of the February lows for HYG. Many investors believe in the adage that “credit leads equities”. As a result, these two asset classes will likely experience a similar fate through the remainder of 2016. Alerian MLP ETF (NYSEARCA: AMLP ) Another well-known proxy of income and credit risk that is closely tied to the commodity markets are master limited partnerships (MLPs). AMLP tracks an index of the 25 largest and most liquid MLPs. These companies provide infrastructure, storage, and pipeline use for large oil and gas companies in the energy sector. The unique tax structure of MLPs allows them to pass on a large percentage of their profits to shareholders in the form of dividends. Thus, these stocks are often prized for their above-average yields. AMLP sports a yield of 11.28% based on its most recent quarterly dividend and current share price. This ETF has experienced a decline similar to junk-bond related indexes, which has been exacerbated by the downtrend in oil and natural gas prices. Similar to oil, this fund is off its lows for the year, but has been unable to regain positive territory for 2016. I believe that this index will continue to demonstrate a high correlation with the energy markets over the next several years. Another factor to the MLP story will be credit conditions , as many of these companies rely heavily on access to debt markets and other funding sources. Keep these factors in mind if you are considering investing in this ETF. It may be a long road ahead to regain sustainable momentum and volatility will likely be a key risk. iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: REM ) If you are aggressive enough to seek out funds offering a double digit yield, then you have likely heard of REM. This ETF tracks an index of 38 mortgage REITs in the residential and commercial lending sectors. Mortgage REITs are characterized by their lofty dividends as a result of embedded leverage and low borrowing costs. REM is a very focused strategy that is arranged in a market-cap weighted methodology. As a result, the top holdings make up a significant portion of the underlying asset base. This includes significant exposure to Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY ) and American Capital Agency REIT (NASDAQ: AGNC ). REM currently has a 30-day SEC yield of 12.30% and income is paid quarterly to shareholders. It’s easy to see how investors can be lured into mortgage REITs by the tremendous yields. However, the volatility and risk that is associated with maintaining that dividend is often overshadowed. This ETF has also traced a path similar to high yield bonds over the last 12 months and has just recently experienced a sharp rebound. Future price action in this ETF is likely going to be governed by a combination of factors including real estate fundamentals, credit trends, and overall appetite for risk in aggressive income assets. Keep in mind that ETFs with high sensitivity to credit risk are best purchased during periods of duress in order to capitalize on their relative value to high quality fixed-income. Furthermore, these tools will require heightened vigilance in order to take advantage of their volatile nature. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: David Fabian, FMD Capital Management, and/or clients may hold positions in the ETFs and mutual funds mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities.